For one last time this season, let’s take a look at the riskiest and safest starts of the week, in a week where it couldn’t matter more for fantasy football. Thanks to everyone who has read this column this season, hopefully, the advice in here has set you up for a big fantasy championship week.
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Week 17 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) vs. Lions
There has been perhaps no player more infuriating than Deebo Samuel this season. Despite the lack of Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel has frequently disappointed fantasy managers. He has been incredible in previous seasons when Aiyuk hasn’t been available, but this year he managed a combined 50.8 points from Weeks 8-15 before spiking massively in Week 16 with 25.1 points, almost as many points as he’d managed in the previous five games combined (25.6).
With Niners running backs banged up, Samuel was expected to see more rushing production, but he’s yet to break 25 rushing yards in a single game this season. The Lions are banged up themselves, but they have more to play for than the Niners, including a potential first-round bye, whereas the Niners just want to get to the offseason healthy.
Deebo Samuel now that 80% of his managers benched him: pic.twitter.com/SJzX9fJvZV
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 22, 2024
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) vs. Giants
Over the last five games, Anthony Richardson has scored over 20 fantasy points three times, but he’s only finished higher than QB9 on one occasion, as he continues struggling to pass the ball. Richardson has a completion rate above 51% on only three occasions this year and his 11.5 completions per game is four fewer than the next nearest quarterback with over 200 dropbacks.
Despite playing one more game, Richardson has also managed the same amount of passing touchdowns (eight) as Daniel Jones. The Giants are struggling on defense of late and the Colts are still making a playoff push, but depending on Richardson in fantasy championship week doesn’t feel great.
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) vs. Cowboys
Playing the Cowboys’ defense is a treat for any wide receiver at the moment, as they rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to the position and are coming off a week where they allowed the Buccaneers to pass for over 300 yards, the second 300-yard game they have allowed in the last three weeks.
Unfortunately for A.J. Brown, he’ll likely be without Jalen Hurts, who is in the concussion protocol. Brown has scored over 20 points three times in the last five games, but will Kenny Pickett be able to keep his cool against a Cowboys defense that’s brought the fifth-most pressure per snap since Week 11?
Week 17 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Drake London (WR – ATL) vs. Commanders
If you were merely to look at Drake London’s Week 16 box score you probably wouldn’t realize he dealt with a quarterback change and played with a rookie making his first start. London has averaged 8.4 targets per game this year and saw eight in Week 16, catching five to stay close to his season average of five receptions. His yards per reception was 11.8, similar to his 12.1 average on the season.
Michael Penix Jr. might not be as good as prime Kirk Cousins was but we haven’t been dealing with that this year. London has been consistent regardless, ranking ninth in total PPR points among wide receivers. The Commanders rank 24th against the pass in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and this year they’ve allowed eight receivers to finish inside the top eight.
This catch by Drake London ????????pic.twitter.com/AfiliB2Kzx
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) December 14, 2024
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) vs. Broncos
The Broncos’ defense is a good unit but it’s been on a slide in recent weeks, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards (1,478) and the Bengals passing offense is a juggernaut that can’t be stopped. Joe Burrow made history in Week 16 by becoming the first quarterback to ever have seven straight games with 250 passing yards and three or more passing touchdowns.
Burrow has played at an MVP level but has once again been let down by the owners of the team whose frugal ways prevent them from being a complete team. Despite the defense being the strength of the Broncos they’ve allowed 22.2+ points in two of the last three games. There should be no reason to worry about Burrow when making fantasy start sit decisions in Week 17.
.@JoeyB continues to make history ????
Most consecutive games with 250+ Passing Yards and 3+ Passing TDs (7) in @NFL history.#ProBowlVote + Joe Burrow pic.twitter.com/4H2InwuNlE
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 22, 2024
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) vs. Falcons
After a down period between Weeks 7 to 11, where Jayden Daniels scored over 20 points a single time, he’s bounced back in a massive way to end the season, averaging 29 fantasy points over his last four games and finishing no worse than the QB7 in fantasy.
Daniels has also rushed more in recent weeks with an average of 63.7 yards per game, up from the 43 average he’s had for the rest of the season. The Falcons have allowed three different quarterbacks over 50 rushing yards this year and have given up seven top-10 finishes to opposing quarterbacks. Both teams have plenty to play for this year and this game should have plenty of upside.
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