As is the case in every week at this time of the year, this week’s start and sit decisions are critically important. If you’re gunning for a place in your fantasy championship in Week 17, or simply trying to avoid the toilet bowl and dreaded last-place punishments, then it’s time to lock in and make sure you pay attention to the safest and riskiest starts of Week 16.

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Week 16 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

It was October 2019 when Lamar Jackson last beat the Steelers, since then he’s only played them four times due to a combination of games off due to rest or injuries, but the point remains, it’s a record Jackson needs to correct. This will be Jackson’s first matchup against the Steelers in Baltimore since 2020 and the crowd will be fired up hoping for a win that could set up a close fight for the AFC North title, but fantasy managers seem far less hyped up to play a player who has 11 games over 22 points this year. When the teams met in Week 11 it was Jackson’s only finish outside the top-six QBs in a week since Week 6. According to fantasypoints.com, the Steelers have played the fifth-highest single-high coverage since Week 11, and Lamar ranks first in QBR against these looks, with eight touchdowns in that spell. Pittsburgh also blitzes at the seventh-highest rate and Jackson ranks second in fantasy points per dropback against the blitz since Week 11. Sooner or later Jackson will put his Pittsburgh woes behind him, but it’s not easy to trust.

I mean, c'mon. ????

Lamar Jackson is having an insanely good season even by his own high standards. pic.twitter.com/bDJP4cyscg

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) December 18, 2024

Najee Harris (RB – PIT) vs Baltimore Ravens

Sticking with the fight for the AFC North, Najee Harris hasn’t been a top-24 RB in three of the last four weeks and most recently finished as the RB56 against the Eagles. The Ravens allow the fewest rushing yards per game (80.7) and have allowed only four top-12 finishes all year. The types of backs who’ve succeeded against the Ravens have been pass catchers like Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley and Rachaad White, and Barkley is the only RB to have more than 63 rushing yards against this defense. Harris’s opportunity share has decreased for three straight weeks, down a total of seven touches in Week 15 with the team needing more dynamism while George Pickens misses out. Harris could pay off with a touchdown, but it’s not a fun bet to make, particularly with this being one of the earlier games on the slate with a Saturday kick-off.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE) vs Cincinnati Bengals

At this point, let’s stick with the AFC North for one more player and consider how the latest developments affect Jerry Jeudy. Across the 71 games that Jeudy has played, he averages 10.39 PPR points per game, but in the games between Week 8 and 15, when Jameis Winston was his quarterback, he averaged 22.5 PPR points and was on track for his first career 1,000-yard season. When Dorian Thompson-Robinson entered the game in Week 15, Jeudy still saw a 44% target share on the two drives that Thompson-Robinson played, but it’s hard to expect it to still be worthwhile with DTR completing 53% of his 108 career passes for 320 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The Bengals defense is a cupcake everyone looks forward to, but no Jameis Winston means this one is tantalizing but just out of our reach.

Week 16 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL) vs New York Giants

It’s not panned out how the Falcons had hoped this year with them eventually having to take Kirk Cousins out to the woodshed and usher in Michael Penix in his place. One thing that has worked out though is Bijan Robinson, whose lack of usage under Arthur Smith was tantamount to war crimes against the fantasy football community and those who enjoy seeing good players get touches. In 2023 Robinson had three games over 19 total touches and was frequently taken off the field in the red zone, this year Robinson has seven games over 19 touches and averages almost three touches per game inside the red zone. Robinson has a single game below 100 total yards in his last nine and has been a top-10 RB in all but two of those games. The Giants are dead and buried right now allowing the second-highest yards per carry (4.94) and a league-high explosive run rate of 7.9%, Robinson could propel you to the championship round this weekend.

That Bijan Robinson guy is pretty good pic.twitter.com/7WVDklV3gH

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 17, 2024

Trey McBride (TE – ARI) vs Carolina Panthers

We’ve been here before with Trey McBride, but hear me out quickly…This is THE week that Trey McBride scores his first receiving touchdown of the season. McBride already has a rushing touchdown and a fumble recovery touchdown, but he now has more receptions (89) without scoring a touchdown than any other player has had in a season. The Cardinals, for their part, seem desperate to make it happen for McBride, with him seeing eight red zone targets over the last four weeks, the second-most at the position, and luckily for them all, this can be the week. Carolina allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and has surrendered ten touchdowns to the position this year, including three since Week 12. McBride has the rare ability at tight end to be very relevant without touchdowns, but it sure will be nice to see him find the end zone this weekend.

.@K1 wants to get Trey McBride his touchdown ???? pic.twitter.com/jUj6dyXF4l

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) December 18, 2024

Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) vs LA Rams

It’s now been back-to-back weeks that Aaron Rodgers has thrown for over 290 passing yards in his most productive spell since he and Davante Adams were together in Green Bay. Rodgers seems to be free of the weight he carried earlier on in the year in his performances and while he’s not fast by any means, he looks to be moving better as the season goes on. The Rams pass defense ranks 23rd in FTN’s DVOA metric that measures efficiency and they allow the ninth-most quarterback points per game, with four top-six performances given up, including the monster 51.9 points to Josh Allen in Week 14. With Davante Adams and Rodgers firmly back on the same page, Rodgers is back into streamer territory.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET) vs Chicago Bears

In the three career games that Jahmyr Gibbs has played without David Montgomery, he averages six more PPR points (22.23), 50% more carries (18) and 35 more rushing yards per game (100.0). Montgomery’s season is likely over and now it’s Gibbs’s chance to shine as the true center-piece of the ground game. The Bears have been a pass funnel all year with their pass defense stronger than their rush defense, which ranks 31st in DVOA, but of late their defense has cratered across the board. Since Week 11 four different running backs have scored over 18 points against them and finished as a top-eight option, which seems like the floor for Jahmyr Gibbs as the Lions look to get right after last week’s embarrassment at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.

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