Week 15 brings with it the end of the bye weeks and the return to full benches for your fantasy roster to choose from. In some cases that can be a good thing and in others the decision-making being forced on you might make life much easier.
The games simply matter the most they have all season at this point. Making the wrong fantasy start sit choices can leave you regretting it for months. Heading into Week 15, these are the riskiest and safest starts.
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Week 15 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) vs. Dolphins
Things have improved for C.J. Stroud since Nico Collins returned. Across the season, Stroud averages four more points per game in the eight games Collins has played than the 14 per game he managed in the five games Collins missed. The fact remains, though, that Stroud has only one 20-point performance this season — back in Week 4.
Miami’s defense has been up and down, holding the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced outside the top 10 and allowing the second-fewest quarterback fantasy points across the whole season. Stroud has been awful against the blitz, ranking dead last in catchable ball rate over the last four games. Miami ranks 11th in blitz rate over the last four games.
Stroud’s greatest hope is the deep passing game, where Miami has been poor all year, allowing the sixth-highest QB Rating on throws 20+ yards downfield, according to Fantasy Points Data. Stroud has completed the sixth-highest rate of these passes over the last four games. That’s quite a thin straw to cling to when your championship hopes are on the line.
The top 10 starting QBs in missed yardage:
1. CJ Stroud (718)
2. Patrick Mahomes (562)
3. Caleb Williams (545)
4. Josh Allen (524)
5. Bo Nix (500)
6. Jayden Daniels (481)
7. Anthony Richardson (458)
8. Justin Herbert (409)
9. Lamar Jackson (401)
10. Jared Goff (358) pic.twitter.com/3BGDFSySWd— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) December 11, 2024
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) @ Giants
The Ravens opened as 14.5-point favorites against the Giants before the line lept to Ravens -16 when Tommy DeVito was announced as the starter due to Drew Lock dealing with soreness in his heel. Typically, we want to start players when they’re such heavy favorites and you’ll likely end up starting Mark Andrews here, as he’s still a top-10 tight end for the week, but there are reasons to be afraid.
The Giants have allowed the third-fewest tight end fantasy points this year. They have also allowed just two touchdowns to the position all year. No tight end has recorded more than 50 yards against the Giants this season, while only two have caught more than four passes against them. This might change with the Giants placing second-round safety Tyler Nubin on injured reserve (IR), who has started all 13 games for the Giants this year.
It’s also likely the Ravens barely need to pass. The Ravens are huge favorites against a team allowing the third-highest yards per carry (4.9), the fourth-most rushing yards per game (141.7) and gives up the seventh-most running back fantasy points. Andrews could simply find himself enjoying a rest before he finds the end zone.
Michael Pittman (WR – IND) @ Broncos
The Colts take on the Broncos in a matchup that will have huge playoff implications. Starting Michael Pittman could also have huge implications for your team. Pittman saw his highest target share since Week 4 when the Colts last played (29%) in Week 13. It’s hard to ignore this production occurred without Josh Downs. Pittman’s seen a higher target share than Downs in only three games all season when they’ve both been healthy, making it very hard to trust Pittman to sustain even a Flex-worthy start.
The Broncos play the fifth-most man coverage this year and while it could be tempting to lean into Anthony Richardson‘s recent successes, including ranking fifth in QB Rating over the last four weeks when playing man coverage, this Broncos defense has blitzed at the fourth-highest rate over the last month. Richardson ranks 27th in completion rate against the blitz in that period.
#Colts WR Josh Downs back at practice after missing last game. @WTHRcom pic.twitter.com/Ftka7CpAAj
— Dominic Miranda (@DomMirandaTV) December 11, 2024
Week 15 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) @ Jaguars
As Michael Scott might say, “Well, well, well… how the turntables…”
Here we are in Week 15, ready to start a quarterback who has looked largely ready for an off-grid version of a retirement home. Aaron Rodgers, however, is coming off his first 300-yard passing game in almost three years, or 34 starts, to look at it another way. To use a British phrase, sometimes you wait forever for a bus only for two to come along at once.
The Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), according to FTN, and they’ve allowed nine different quarterbacks to finish as a top-12 option against them, as well as three managing to finish as the QB1 in their respective matchups.
Rodgers is playing for any potential chance at all to return to New York and beating up on a woeful Jaguars team likely appeals plenty to him. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 141 passing yards per game to play action passes. Over the last four weeks, Rodgers has had the third-most play-action snaps. We can expect him to be particularly lethal on those plays this weekend.
Aaron Rodgers was asked about his mobility
"I've always been able to move around the pocket a little bit and make plays outside the pocket, throw the ball on the run. Last couple weeks I've felt a lot better physically. I feel like I've played some better football" pic.twitter.com/vz8CQ2AmqC
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) December 11, 2024
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Cowboys
Some players have all the luck and some have none whatsoever. It’s easy to determine which side of that thinking Jonathon Brooks falls. Sadly for Brooks, his misfortune is Chuba Hubbard’s fortune. If Brooks had been ready to go in Week 1, maybe Hubbard would have never gotten the contract extension he recently signed, but that’s not to take away from Hubbard’s season, as he has risen to the test at almost every opportunity.
Hubbard has 1,152 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns. He gets a weak Dallas defense this week ranked 29th against in rushing DVOA and that allows the fourth-most running back fantasy points. Dallas has allowed eight top-10 running back finishes this year, including most recently in Week 14 to Chase Brown (24.3 PPR points). Hubbard can extend his argument as one of the best value picks in 2024 fantasy football.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) @ Saints
Austin Ekeler is on IR with his second concussion of the season. We may have seen the last of him until 2025, clearing the way for Brian Robinson to see more and more high-value touches. When Ekeler got injured he was enjoying more goal-line touches than ever but then Robinson had one of his best performances of the year in Week 13, rushing for 6.4 yards per carry and breaking 100 yards for the first time since Week 4.
The Saints can’t stop the run, allowing a league-high 5.0 yards per carry. They’ll likely be worn down without starting quarterback Derek Carr. Meanwhile, the Commanders are fresh off their bye. Everything screams Brian Robinson getting 20 touches, two touchdowns and a top-eight weekly finish.
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