As Week 14 kicks off with six teams on a bye, every start/sit decision becomes crucial, with the fantasy playoffs looming. It’s no longer about sticking with familiar names; you’ve got 13 weeks of performance data to guide you. Now’s the time to dig into the numbers and make decisions that give you the best shot at victory.
Below are the safest and riskiest picks for Week 14. Good luck.
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Week 14 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
In terms of value, Chuba Hubbard has undoubtedly been one of the better value fantasy picks this year, ranking as the RB13 in both full PPR and half PPR formats with over 1000 total yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. However, it’s also hard not to notice that the production hasn’t always been there. Hubbard has below 77 total yards in seven of his games this year, and while he has six top-12 finishes, he also has five below RB22 and has combined for 17.3 points in his last two games. The Eagles haven’t allowed a top-10 RB performance all year and have given up a grand total of four touchdowns to the position, along with the fourth-fewest fantasy points. The ray of light for Hubbard is that, according to Fantasypoints.com, the Eagles allow the third-highest success rate to zone concept rushes, which 69% of Hubbard’s attempts have been, but it’s hard to see the Panthers winning the line of scrimmage battle.
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) vs. Cleveland Browns
The last two weeks have been Pat Freiermuth‘s season’s most productive two-week stretch since the first few weeks when Justin Fields connected more consistently with him. Russell Wilson has been good news for his wide receivers, but it’s taken him longer to get on the same page with his tight ends, and the emergence of Darnell Washington, a clear favorite of Arthur Smith, has kept Freiermuth below a 65% snap share in three of the last four games, a substantial drop off from the 80% range he started the year with. Freiermuth hasn’t finished higher than TE12 in a game when he hasn’t scored one of his four touchdowns and even managed a TE20 finish in a game where he did score a touchdown. In short, he’s touchdown-reliant because he doesn’t earn volume, ranking 22nd in yards per route run among tight ends (1.4), and Freiermuth’s opponents, the Browns, have allowed two TE touchdowns all year. Tight ends are a nightmare, as always, but there are probably better options out there.
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Revenge is on the menu in Week 14 with Kirk Cousins facing Minnesota after six years as their quarterback. The Vikings likely feel okay about both their short-term and long-term prospects, with JJ McCarthy being an exciting prospect and Sam Darnold‘s vanilla play being acceptable enough for a team in the hopeful contender category. Cousins has had some impressive blow-up performances with scores of 34.4 (Wk5) and 28.6 (Wk8), but lately, things haven’t come easily with his performances on either side of the bye week, totalling a disappointing 7.0 combined points. The Vikings scheme can put opponents in a blender, with them leading the league in blitz rate and two-high safety looks. Over the last four weeks, Cousins has a 44.4 QBR score, which is by far the lowest, with no other QB scoring below 60, according to FantasyPoints. The zone coverage that Minnesota uses again flummoxes Cousins, with him ranking 37th in QBR against zone and 30th in yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and five interceptions. The potential counter would be that when blitzed, both Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been good producers against the blitz, and the Vikings allow the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so perhaps they can carry Cousins along with them. Either way, it doesn’t feel like an easy bet.
The Vikings have blitzed at the 2nd highest rate in the league this season (16.9 per game).
Drake London and Darnell Mooney have both seen large jumps in efficiency/volume when Kirk Cousins has been blitzed, see below:
London
– All Coverages: 29% TPRR, 2.22 YPRR
– When Blitzed:…— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) December 4, 2024
Week 14 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars can’t defend anything. They can’t defend the pass, ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA, and while they’re stronger against the run, they give up more fantasy points to RBs than WRs because teams can dictate the game script against them. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position, with nine different RBs scoring 18 or more points against them. In total they average allow 1.23 RB touchdowns per game and the ninth-most rushing yards per game (133.2). Tony Pollard has only one top12 finish in his last four games, but the Titans have had tough games against the Chargers and Vikings in that stretch and against Washington in Week 13, the Commanders were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter, taking the game away from the ground. With the Jaguars moving Trevor Lawrence to IR, this game is unlikely to get out of hand, and Pollard can get back into the top-12.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’re 13 weeks into the season, and Brock Bowers, a rookie, leads all tight ends in targets (113), receptions (84), deep targets (8) and targets per route run (0.28), not to mention is also the PPR TE1 with 35 more points than George Kittle who has twice as many touchdowns as Bowers’s four. Bowers has been a top-five tight end in six of his last eight games and eight times overall this year. The Bucs aren’t a good defense, ranking 24th against the pass in DVOA and having allowed six top-six finishes to tight ends this year with four since the start of Week 7, with Tommy Tremble managing 77 against them in Week 13, accounting for 11% of his total career production despite playing four years in the NFL. Bowers is mocking those who mocked him this offseason, and his value is only going up. Get onboard before it’s too late.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) vs. New York Giants
It’s mind-boggling, but somehow, Alvin Kamara has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season in eight seasons in the NFL. The closest Kamara has gotten is 932 in 2020, but now all being well, he can hit that goal with 106 more yards this year, and the good news for Kamara is that the Giants are a cupcake matchup on the ground. The Giants allow a league-high 5.1 Yards Per Carry, the highest explosive run rate (8.2%) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.8). Kamara is set to get a big boost to the offensive line with the return of Erik McCoy (center) and has averaged an 87% RB opportunity share over the last five games. The biggest ding on Kamara had been that Taysom Hill might be likely to vulture him at any moment, but now, with Hill sadly on injured reserve, the competition for touches is even thinner than it already was. Kamara could be set for a monster end to the season.
Alvin Kamara is 106 yards short of having his first 1,000-yard rushing season.
Really good shot he gets there on Sunday.
Erik McCoy and Lucas Patrick are trending to play.
Giants have been destroyed on the ground and just lost Dexter Lawrence for the rest of the season.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 3, 2024
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