Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Lineup Advice: Week 15
Murray’s outlook this week is murky at best. This comes down to what I think New England will do with their coverage structure and how the Patriots’ pass defense will hold up outside of Christian Gonzalez. New England has utilized two high with at least 50% of their defensive snaps six times this season and in two of their last four games. If you’ve been reading the Primer all season, you already know that Murray has been a mediocre quarterback against two high this season. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray has ranked 15th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, 31st in hero throw rate, and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback against two high. If Murray finishes as a QB1 this week, he’ll need his rushing to bail him out, which is hard to trust. Since Week 8, he has surpassed 21 rushing yards in a game only once. Those are all of the reasons to worry about Murray. The glass-half-full vision for his Week 15 outlook leans heavily upon the fact that New England has been a putrid pass defense all year outside of Christian Gonzalez. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns while also giving up the 12th-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback. Murray’s range of outcomes is wide this week.
The ramp-up for Pacheco has begun. Last week, he played 46% of the snaps, finishing with 16 touches and 61 total yards. He had 70% of the running back rushing attempts while splitting the route share nearly evenly with the other backs (26.2%). He had 50% of the running back red zone rushing attempts (one). On a per-touch basis, Pacheco still looks like a player working his way back to form. Last week, he didn’t have an explosive run, managing a disappointing 7% missed tackle rate and 2.21 yards after contact per attempt. He has a wonderful matchup this week that could help boost those efficiency numbers. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.
In Maye’s seven full starts, Henry has finished as a TE1 five times. In those games, he has drawn nine red zone targets. Since Week 10, Arizona has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (63.9%). In those seven games, against two high, Henry has had an 18.2% target share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. Henry should see plenty of volume and red zone usage this week, which could help him overcome a tough matchup. Across their last five games, Arizona has allowed the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.
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