You’re on the doorstep. Make it past Week 16 and you can start ringing the doorbell.
It’s semifinals week in the fantasy playoffs (well, in most leagues, anyways). One more win and you’re in the championship game. The trophy is within arm’s length.
Congrats on still being alive, but you didn’t come this far just to finish in third or fourth place. Two more steps to get to the brass ring.
Let’s boldly take those steps.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 15)
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Sam Darnold
- Jayden Daniels
- Brock Purdy
- Kyler Murray
- Jared Goff
- Jordan Love
- Anthony Richardson
- Bo Nix
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Aaron Rodgers
- Matthew Stafford
Tier 4
- Justin Herbert
- Caleb Williams
- Patrick Mahomes
- Drake Maye
- Cooper Rush
- C.J. Stroud
- Aidan O’Connell
- Mac Jones
Tier 5
- Russell Wilson
- Geno Smith
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Bryce Young
- Mason Rudolph
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson
- Drew Lock
- Spencer Rattler
Yes, Brock Purdy has produced a couple of clunkers at us lately. He had 94 passing yards and no touchdowns against the Bills in Week 13, and he had 142 passing yards and no touchdowns against the Rams last week. But through the first 12 weeks of the season, Purdy was QB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.5 points. Not having left tackle Trent Williams has hurt. The 49ers’ star left tackle has missed the last four games with an ankle injury and isn’t expected back this week. Still, I expect Purdy to rebound. The 49ers are down another running back, with Isaac Guerendo expected to be out with a hamstring injury. Purdy is in a contract drive. He wears the No. 13 because his dad’s favorite player was Dan Marino, so maybe Purdy will have extra motivation Sunday in Miami. OK … maybe I’m grasping at straws in trying to justify my belief that Purdy will have a good game this week. Let’s just call it vibes-based analysis. I’m betting on Purdy this week in one of my semifinal games, and I think you should, too.
I’m slightly below consensus on Jordan Love. My concern is this: How much are the Packers going to need to throw in a home game against the Saints where they’re favored by two touchdowns? Also, the Saints’ defense ranks 12th in DVOA against the pass and 30th in DVOA against the run. Green Bay has been mauling opponents with the running game, and this matchup sets up well for more of the same. Love hasn’t thrown 30 passes in a game since Week 9. He’s averaged 23 pass attempts over his last five games. The Packers have passed the Steelers to become the second run-heaviest team in the league behind only the Eagles. Green Bay has run the ball on 51.2% of its offensive snaps. I wouldn’t be eager to start Love in fantasy this week.
Aaron Rodgers is getting hot down the stretch. Better late than never? Maybe not for Jets fans, but for fantasy managers rostering Rodgers, heck yeah. Rodgers is QB5 in fantasy scoring the last two weeks. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three of his last four games, including a season-high three TD passes last week against the Jaguars. And this Rams-Jets matchup could be a shootout. The Vegas total for this game is 46.5 points. It’s the highest total we’ve seen for a Jets game in a while. Rodgers has been clicking with his old friend Davante Adams lately, and Rodgers has another terrific receiver in Garrett Wilson. The Rams have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. I’m ran king Rodgers as a high-end QB2 this week and think he’s the best streaming candidate among the QBs rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues.
Yeah, I’m fading Patrick Mahomes. He’s been an unreliable fantasy asset this season, ranking QB12 in fantasy points per game. Now he’s trying to gut it out on a high-ankle sprain against a Texans pass defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA and forced Tua Tagovailoa into three interceptions last week. Tua threw for 196 yards and one touchdown, averaging just 4.9 yards per pass attempt in that game. Mahomes is no more than a desperation option this week.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Josh Jacobs
- Saquon Barkley
- James Conner
- Chase Brown
- Bijan Robinson
- De’Von Achane
- Derrick Henry
Tier 2
Tier 3
- Aaron Jones
- Joe Mixon
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Rachaad White
- Kenneth Walker III
- Breece Hall
- D’Andre Swift
- Tony Pollard
Tier 4
- Jerome Ford
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Patrick Taylor Jr.
- Isiah Pacheco
- Kendre Miller
- Travis Etienne
- Tyrone Tracy
- Tank Bigsby
- Javonte Williams
- Jaylen Warren
- Najee Harris
- Alexander Mattison
Tier 5
- Kareem Hunt
- Tyjae Spears
- Kimani Vidal
- Zach Charbonnet
- Gus Edwards
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Ameer Abdullah
- Tyler Allgeier
- Justice Hill
There are some real concerns with Joe Mixon this week. His ankle may not be 100% after he was the victim of a hip-drop tackle last week. He has a hellish matchup against the Chiefs, who have allowed the fewest rushing yards, fewest receiving yards and fewest fantasy points to RBs. And over his last five games, Mixon has struggled every time he’s gone up against a good run defense. He had 25 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in Week 10, 14-22-0 against the Titans in Week 12, and 12-23-0 against the Dolphins last week. The appeal is that Mixon is a good bet for around 20 touches. But whereas Mixon has been ranked in RB1 range for most of the season, I see him as more of a midrange RB2 this week.
With Nick Chubb out with a broken foot, you have to figure Jerome Ford is going to handle a substantial workload this week against the Bengals. The question is whether Ford’s path to fantasy value will be blocked by the insertion of Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback for the Browns. DTR made three starts for Cleveland last year. The Browns scored 3, 13 and 12 points in those three games. Browns RBs combined for only 46 receiving yards in those three contests. I see Ford as a risky low-end RB2, factoring in the possibility that Thompson-Robinson could derail the Cleveland offense.
Rhamondre Stevenson missed Week 6 with a foot injury. Since coming back, he’s averaged 48 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. He hasn’t run for more than 74 yards in any of those eight games. His matchup this week against the Bills isn’t terrible — Buffalo has given up the second-most fantasy points to RBs — but with the Patriots two-touchdown underdogs on the road, the game script might not be run-friendly. Consider Stevenson a high-end RB3.
Freed from the doghouse of former Saints head coach Dennis Allen, Kendre Miller is finally getting a chance to show what he could do, and he’s in line for a beefy workload this week with Alvin Kamara expected to be out with a groin injury. After being inactive in all but two games this season, Miller had 10-32-1 rushing against the Giants in Week 14 and 9-46-0 against the Commanders last week. Maybe Jamaal Williams will share some of the load with Miller. This game will be a sort of homecoming for Williams, who spent his first three years in the league with the Packers. But Miller played 26 snaps last week; Williams played six. The problem is that the Saints are in a bad spot at quarterback with fifth-round rookie Spence Rattler in line for the start. And we’re talking about a team from the Deep South that plays in a dome, going up to play in 20-degree weather in Green Bay. So, while the usage outlook looks promising for Miller, he’s not in a healthy offensive ecosystem. I’m ranking Miller RB27.
Jaylen Warren out-snapped Najee Harris 23-14 last week in the Steelers’ loss to the Eagles. Pittsburgh’s game against Baltimore this week might be more of a Warren game than a Harris game, too. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to RBs, but they’ve allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs. Harris and Warren both catch passes, but Warren is more explosive and more dangerous in space. The FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings have Harris ranked RB29, Warren RB31. I have Warren at RB31, Harris at RB32, and I would not be excited about starting Harris this week in a playoff semifinal.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Mike Evans
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Nico Collins
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins
- A.J. Brown
- Davante Adams
- Tyreek Hill
Tier 3
- Courtland Sutton
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Terry McLaurin
- Cooper Kupp
- Ladd McConkey
- Jauan Jennings
- Drake London
- Jakobi Meyers
- Garrett Wilson
- Malik Nabers
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Zay Flowers
Tier 4
- Khalil Shakir
- Jordan Addison
- D.J. Moore
- Keenan Allen
- Calvin Ridley
- Jameson Williams
- D.K. Metcalf
- DeVonta Smith
- Jerry Jeudy
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Adam Thielen
- Jayden Reed
Tier 5
- Josh Downs
- Deebo Samuel
- Darnell Mooney
- Rome Odunze
- Jalen McMillan
- Xavier Worthy
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Calvin Austin III
- Tank Dell
- Christian Watson
- Romeo Doubs
Tier 6
Tier 7
- Tre Tucker
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Michael Wilson
- Sterling Shepard
- Brandin Cooks
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- Joshua Palmer
- Cedric Tillman
- Elijah Moore
Don’t bench Terry McLaurin. Yes, he bricked when he last faced the Eagles in mid-November, with once catch for 10 yards on two targets. Quinyon Mitchell, one of the Eagles’ two excellent rookie cornerbacks, is a tough matchup. But it’s generally a mistake to freak out about top receivers who have tough individual matchups. Case in point: A.J. Brown last week against Joey Porter Jr. and the Steelers. I got a lot of questions from people wondering if they should bench AJB. I advised against it. AJB finished with eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. McLaurin has earned similar confidence even in tricky matchups.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is close to an auto-start this week, but I’m ranking him as a low-end WR2, so I suppose I don’t necessarily see him as an auto-start in shallow leagues. Geno Smith is expected to play this week against Minnesota despite a knee injury that knocked him out of last Sunday night’s loss to Green Bay. I don’t hate Smith-Njigba’s matchup with the Vikings, who have given up the most fantasy points to WRs this season. My colleague Derek Brown pointed in last week’s Primer that the Vikings had allowed the second-most receptions to slot receivers since Week 9, and then Bears slot receiver Keenan Allen had six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota on Monday night. So maybe the floor is sturdy for JSN if Geno makes it through the game. But Geno clearly isn’t going to be 100% on that knee, and Seattle’s passing attack hasn’t been wildly productive of late. Over his last five Games, Geno has thrown just three TD passes, and he’s averaged 212.6 passing yards a game over that stretch.
Zay Flowers is in the midst of a drought. From Week 5 to Week 9, Flowers topped the 100-yard mark in 4-of-5 games and was WR3 in PPR scoring over that stretch. In the five games since then, Flowers has scored only one touchdown, hasn’t produced more than 74 receiving yards in any game, and is WR44 over that span. To Flowers’ credit, he’s hit double digits in PPR fantasy points in each of his last four games, so at least the floor has been stable. He doesn’t have an ideal matchup this week against a Pittsburgh defense that’s had the number of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson throughout his career. But the Ravens need a big game from Flowers. Rashod Bateman is questionable with a foot injury, and the Ravens have no other playmakers at receiver. When he faced Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, Flowers only had two catches, but he did provide 39 yards and a touchdown. With an enhanced target outlook, I’m cautiously optimistic that Flowers can pay off in fantasy. I’m ranking him as a low-end WR2.
Since Week 11, Addison is WR6 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Despite the presence of star WR Justin Jefferson, Addison has averaged 8.8 targets over his last five games, with at least eight targets in four of those five games. Start him with confidence this week vs. the Seahawks.
Keenan Allen has a nice matchup against the Lions this week. Detroit has been giving it up to slot receivers all season. Lions slot corner Amik Robertson is allowing 1.45 yards per route run into his coverage. PFF has Roberston graded 90th among the 115 cornerbacks they’ve graded. Allen has been on a roll. He has four touchdowns over his last four games, and he’s had five or more catches in three of his last four games. The nice little run that Allen is on started with the Bears’ Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions. You might recall that the Bears didn’t get a first down in that game until they were inside the two-minute warning of the first half. But then Allen went bonkers in the second half and finished with five catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns. I have Allen ranked as a high-end WR3 and think you can confidently start him even though this hasn’t exactly been a vintage season for him.
In Weeks 13 and 14, Adam Thielen gave us 17 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. He took a bit of a step back last week with five catches for 51 yards — not bad, but not as fun as those numbers from Weeks 13 and 14. I’m mildly concerned that with Jalen Coker back from injury, Thielen might line up outside more often and lose some of those valuable slot snaps — probably not a good thing for his fantasy outlook. But with Xavier Legette out with a groin injury this week, Thielen and Coker should both get a good number of targets. Regard Thielen as a low-end WR3.
Darnell Mooney was shut out last week against the Raiders. Will the Falcons’ QB change from Kirk Cousins to No. 8 overall draft pick Michael Penix Jr. brighten the outlook for Mooney, Drake London and Atlanta’s other pass catchers? I think it will … but maybe not this week. I’m a Penix fan, but let’s acknowledge that the starting debuts of most NFL quarterbacks — even the good ones — typically aren’t pretty. In Tom Brady’s first career start, he threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers threw for 178 yards and one touchdown in first career start (though he added a TD run). Josh Allen threw for 245 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Joe Burrow had 193 yards passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception. You get the idea. I’d be willing to start London in a fantasy matchup this week, but I wouldn’t want to start Mooney.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Playing in place of the injured Evan Engram, who’s out for the season, Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange had 11 catches for 73 yards against the Jets last week on 12 targets. But strangely (ahem), his longest reception went for only 9 yards. Strange is playing the same security-blanket role that Evan Engram was playing in the Jaguars’ passing game. Strange is going to get a bunch of short-area targets. There’s an excellent chance that Strange is going to catch at least five or six passes this week, although he’s probably a lock to average less than 10 yards per catch. The floor is relatively sturdy, but the ceiling is probably pretty low. I think Strange is a much more attractive option if you’re favored in your matchup this week. If you’re an underdog and need to land a couple of haymakers against a powerful opponent, Strange probably isn’t the guy who’s going to land those haymakers for you. I have him ranked TE8.
Travis Kelce hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 10, and he’s scored two touchdowns all season. Over the last five weeks, Kelce is TE20 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game with 6.6. Teammate Noah Gray has averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch. This week, Kelce faces the Texans, who have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and eighth-fewest fantasy points to TEs. It’s unlikely the Chiefs are going to have a pass-happy game plan with QB Patrick Mahomes is playing on a high-ankle sprain. I have Kelce ran ked as a low-end TE1 this week and wouldn’t be opposed to benching him if you have another viable option at the position.
Dalton Kincaid returned from a knee injury last week and immediately posted a new season-high in receiving yardage. Alas, the new season-high was just 53 yards. Kincaid has plenty of target competition from Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, and the Bills love to run the ball. I have Kincaid ranked TE17.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn