This is the final week of the regular season in most fantasy leagues, so playoff berths and playoff byes are up for grabs.
Does everyone in your league care?
Integrity is vital to the health of fantasy leagues. Can every manager in your league be trusted to stay engaged and act in good faith?
In successful and long-running leagues, the answer is almost always “yes.”
I’m lucky to be in a bunch of stable home leagues full of friends and friendly acquaintances. In the rare instances where I don’t know other managers well, I’m at least confident that I can trust them because they’re good friends of my good friends.
Not everyone is lucky. Some of you may have ended up in leagues with sketchy owners who can’t be trusted not to collude — or who might not care about fielding a competitive lineup in Week 14 if they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.
Be vigilant this week, commissioners. I’ve seen leagues completely unraveled by donnybrooks over the ethics of Week 14 lineup-setting. Make sure all the managers in your league are setting viable lineups with healthy players — particularly in the games with major playoff implications.
And if you happen to be reading this article even though you’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, be a noble competitor. Set the best lineup you can to help preserve the competitive integrity of your league.
It’s the right thing to do. Good citizenship is essential to the long-term viability of any fantasy league.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Will Levis
- Geno Smith
- Matthew Stafford
- Jameis Winston
- Caleb Williams
- Aidan O’Connell
- Kirk Cousins
- Derek Carr
Tier 5
In eight career games against the Chiefs, Justin Herbert has averaged 273 passing yards and 2.1 touchdown passes. He’s also had three touchdown runs against Kansas City. Herbert’s career passer rating against the Chiefs is 101.5. Passing volume has been a wild card for Herbert this year. But in this matchup, I’m not worried about it because I don’t think the Chargers can afford to be run-heavy against a Chiefs defense that has given up the second-fewest rushing yards. Herbert will have to throw aggressively for the Chargers to have a chance. I’m above the consensus on Herbert at QB8.
Jameis Winston was hard to rank this week. On one hand, a road matchup against the Steelers is far from ideal. The Steelers are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. On the other hand, maybe the matchup really isn’t all that bad. The Steelers are giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt, seventh-most in the league. Their opponent passer rating of 99.1 is ninth-worst in the league. Winston is averaging 43.6 pass attempts over his five starts this season, with 41 or more pass attempts in four of his five starts. He’s averaging 336 passing yards and 2.0 TD passes. I’m slotting Winston at QB17, which might be an overly conservative ranking.
Caleb Williams has averaged 43 pass attempts over the last two weeks, fueling fantasy finishes of QB4 and QB5 those two weeks. The heavy passing volume makes it seem as if Caleb is on an upswing, and it’s undeniable that he’s been playing better lately. But Caleb has also endured some dry spells as a rookie. He went four straight games without a touchdown pass from Week 8 to Week 11. Even last week, the Bears didn’t pick up a first down until there were under two minutes left in the first half. I think Caleb is a decent play this week against the beleaguered 49ers, especially now that he’s running more aggressively. Caleb has had at least 33 rushing yards in each of his last three games. I’m ranking him as a midrange QB2.
Running Backs
Tier 1
Tier 2
- De’Von Achane
- Chase Brown
- Alvin Kamara
- Bijan Robinson
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Josh Jacobs
- Bucky Irving
- Kyren Williams
Tier 3
- Isaac Guerendo
- James Cook
- David Montgomery
- James Conner
- Tony Pollard
- Kenneth Walker III
- Tyrone Tracy
- Rico Dowdle
- Aaron Jones
- Braelon Allen
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
Tier 7
- Zach Charbonnet
- Jerome Ford
- Kimani Vidal
- Tyjae Spears
- Cam Akers
- Devin Singletary
- Travis Homer
- Raheem Mostert
- Ameer Abdullah
- Ray Davis
- Blake Corum
- Tyler Allgeier
- Trey Benson
I had a too-low ranking of RB19 for Bucky Irving last week in a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers because I didn’t want to be too high on a time-share RB. Big mistake. Irving ran for 152 yards and a TD, adding 33 receiving yards on the way to finishing RB1 on the week. It doesn’t really matter that Irving shares work with Rachaad White because the Buccaneers are using their RBs so heavily. Over the last three weeks, Irving and White have combined for 103 touches. During that stretch, Irving has averaged 104.3 rushing yards a game and 6.26 yards per carry. He’s scored a touchdown in all three games, and he’s caught all 12 of his targets for 111 yards. Although Irving is dealing with a hip injury, I’m ranking him RB8 this week against Las Vegas. The Raiders aren’t complete pushovers against the run — their run defense ranks 22nd in DVOA — but the Buccaneers should have a run-friendly game script as 6.5-point home favorites.
With the 49ers losing Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to longer-term injuries, rookie fourth-rounder Isaac Guerendo ascends to the top of San Francisco’s RB depth chart. Guerendo put on a show at the NFL Scouting Combine, running a 4.33 at 6-0, 221 pounds — the best 40-yard dash time among the running backs. He also had the highest vertical jump and second-longest broad jump among RBs. Guerendo’s college production profile is less convincing. He was a lightly used backup at Wisconsin for four years, then spent his final college season at Louisville, where he had a good year in a time-share with Jawhar Jordan. This season, Guerendo has looked good when he’s gotten an extended look. He had 10-99-0 rushing vs. the Seahawks in Week 6 and 14-85-1 vs. the Cowboys in Week 8. Guerendo is a good bet for 15-plus carries against a Chicago run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs. I have Guerendo ranked RB10 and consider him a must-start.
The Cowboys are finally committing to using Rico Dowdle as a true lead back. He’s had 19 and 20 carries in his last two games. He had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season and his first rushing touchdown of the season against the Giants on Thanksgiving. Dowdle catches passes, too. He has 32 receptions for 195 yards and three TDs this season. Consider Dowdle a midrange RB2.
Najee Harris doesn’t have a sky-high ceiling, but his floor is undeniably sturdy. He’s RB21 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring and RB24 in fantasy points per game. Najee has churned out double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games. I’m slightly below consensus on Najee this week, ranking him RB21. He has a tricky matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Najee went up against the Browns two weeks ago and only had 41 rushing yards on 16 carries. Plus, it’s inevitable that Jalen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson also get some snaps and touches at RB for the Steelers.
Rankers seem to be having a crisis of confidence with Chuba Hubbard. Last week, Hubbard had 12 carries for 43 yards against the Buccaneers with no touchdowns and no receptions. It was the fewest touches Hubbard has had since Week 1 and the first time he’s failed to catch a pass in a game since Week 1. But Hubbard still played 79% of the offensive snaps, so it seems premature to suggest that rookie Jonathan Brooks will put a significant dent in Hubbard’s workload. The bigger concern this week is a matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. But the Panthers can’t just throw Bryce Young to the wolves and let him attempt 40 passes against this fierce Philly defense. Hubbard figures to be a big part of the game plan. I’m ranking him RB20, which puts me slightly above the consensus on him
Here’s hoping you aren’t forced to play Gus Edwards in Week 14. It seems suboptimal to trot out a plodding, inefficient between-the-tackles grinder against the Chiefs, who have one of the best run defenses in the league. If you are forced to play Edwards, I suppose you’re hanging your hat on his 52% snap share from last week. But Edwards offers no value as a pass catcher, so his only path to Week 14 fantasy value is through Kansas City’s iron-curtain run defense. Good luck with that.
Tank Bigsby returned from an ankle injury last week, but Travis Etienne out-snapped Bigsby 37-32 and out-touched him 16-8. I can’t say I have immense faith in Etienne in a tricky matchup against the Titans, but it’s nice that Etienne is the pass-catching back for the Jaguars and thus has more than one path to fantasy value. Bigsby is a better runner than Etienne but offers zero value as a pass catcher. I have Etienne ranked RB26 in half-point PPR, Bigsby RB28.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Calvin Ridley
- Tyreek Hill
- Jakobi Meyers
- Malik Nabers
- Jayden Reed
- D.K. Metcalf
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Garrett Wilson
- Ladd McConkey
- Jerry Jeudy
- D.J. Moore
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
Tier 5
- Jameson Williams
- Deebo Samuel Sr.
- Davante Adams
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Jauan Jennings
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Khalil Shakir
- Darnell Mooney
Tier 6
- Keenan Allen
- Elijah Moore
- Jordan Addison
- Christian Watson
- Amari Cooper
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Xavier Worthy
Tier 7
- Rome Odunze
- Adam Thielen
- Xavier Legette
- Parker Washington
- Michael Wilson
- Quentin Johnston
- Keon Coleman
Tier 8
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- Brandin Cooks
- Tyler Lockett
- Tre Tucker
- Sterling Shepard
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Joshua Palmer
- Demarcus Robinson
- Calvin Austin III
- Jalen McMillan
- Darius Slayton
Calvin Ridley had two catches for 45 yards last week against the Commanders, but he’s poised for a rebound in Week 14. Ridley faces a Jaguars pass defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA and has the highest opponent passer rating in the league (110.2) by a wide margin. Jacksonville was destroyed by the last two lead receivers it faced. Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns against the Jags in Week 11, and Nico Collins had eight catches for 119 yards against them last week. I’m ranking Ridley as a low-end WR1.
Marvin Harrison had a season-high 12 targets last week against the Vikings, catching five of them for 60 yards and a touchdown. In the run-up to that game, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon told the media he wanted Harrison to be more involved. Here’s hoping the resolution to get Harrison more involved lasts for more than one game. I’ve got MHJ ranked WR21.
Davante Adams has drawn double-digit targets in three of his last four contests. But Adams is only averaging 10.8 yards per catch and 6.0 yards per target over that span. I don’t have much faith in the Jets’ offense these days. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for under 200 yards in three straight games. This week, the Jets are up against a Miami defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I’m not telling you to bench Adams, but I’m starting him in a couple of leagues and don’t feel great about it.
It’s been a rough year for Deebo Samuel. He’s WR47 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He’s produced fewer than five fantasy points in three straight games. But injuries to RBs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason could give Deebo a more significant role in the 49ers’ running game. Deebo had 59 rushing attempts in 2021 and 42 in 2022. He has 27 rushing attempts this season but has only one carry over his last three games. The 49ers don’t have a proven backup behind rookie RB Isaac Guerendo, and it’s possible Deebo will end up in the dual role of wide receiver/complementary running back. I’m taking a leap of faith and ranking him RB24 this week, well above consensus.
In Jameis Winston’s five starts this season, Jerry Jeudy is averaging 9.8 targets, 6.6 catches and 122.8 receiving yards a game. That yardage number is obviously skewed by his 235-yard performance Monday night against the Broncos, but Jeudy has had no fewer than 73 yards in any of Winston’s five starts. Jeudy’s weekly fantasy finishes in Winston’s starts: WR39, WR28, WR4, WR21 and WR1. But I have concerns about Jeudy’s matchup Week 14 matchup with CB Joey Porter Jr. and the Steelers. Jeudy got the better of Porter a couple of weeks ago in a Thursday night game in Cleveland, catching all six of his targets for 85 yards. I fear that Jeudy’s success in that game could light a fire under Porter, one of the league’s top cover men, so I’m conservatively ranking Jeudy as a high-end WR3.
Last week was a perfect storm for Keenan Allen. The Bears were in a 16-0 hole at halftime of their Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions and were forced to throw like crazy in the second half. The Lions don’t fare well against slot receivers, and Allen wound up with five catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns. Allen has had two pretty big games in a row, but Bears QB Caleb Williams has averaged 43 pass attempts over his two contests. It’s worth remembering that going into Week 12, Allen hadn’t finished with more than 44 receiving yards in a game this season. I don’t want to go overboard in my enthusiasm for Allen when his good games the last two weeks were largely driven by heavy passing volume and good matchups. I’m slotting him at WR34.
I just can’t buy into Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He’s scored eight touchdowns in his last eight games. Westbrook-Ikhine has had three or fewer catches in seven of those eight games. He’s scored a touchdown on 40% of his receptions this season and 21% of his targets. I just don’t want to bet on this kind of crazy TD luck, and yet … he keeps scoring TDs. Even with an ultra-favorable matchup against the Jaguars this week, I only have Westbrook-Ikhine ranked WR38 in a week where there are six teams on bye.
Tight Ends
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Cole Kmet
- Noah Gray
- Dalton Kincaid
- Mike Gesicki
- Chig Okonkwo
- Noah Fant
- Tyler Conklin
- Foster Moreau
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
I’m ranking Will Dissly TE12 against a Chiefs defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs. But Dissly would become close to a must-start if Chargers WR Ladd McConkey were to be scratched due to shoulder and knee injuries.
Evan Engram’s ceiling is low, but the floor is pretty sturdy — not the worst production profile in a six-team bye-pocalypse. Over his last four games, Engram is averaging 8.5 targets and 5.8 receptions, with at least seven targets and five receptions in each of those games. The problem is that Engram hasn’t finished with more than 45 receiving yards in any of those contests. He’s averaging just 6.7 yards per catch over that stretch. And he’s only scored one touchdown all season. I’ve got him at TE9.
There’s been a little bit of a usage uptick for Pat Freiermuth lately. He’s had 10 catches for 127 yards over his last two games. We just haven’t seen much consistency from the Pittsburgh tight end this season. Freiermuth has had fewer than 30 receiving yards in half of his 12 games. But the matchup against the Browns is a decent one. Cleveland has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends. I have Freiermuth ranked TE17, but I don’t see much separation between any of the tight ends in the TE13-TE19 range.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
