We’re finally here. It’s Week 17, which is the fantasy football championship in the vast majority of leagues. If you’ve made it this far, congratulations. It’s now time to finish strong by putting your team in the best possible position to take home that trophy.
The classic wisdom may be to trust the team that got you here, but it’s vitally important to consider matchups when setting your final lineup of the season. Sometimes, a good play in a soft matchup is a better play than a great player in a tough one. With that in mind, it’s time to find the best (and worst) fantasy football start sit matchups for Week 17 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed Tool. Let’s get started.
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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 17)
Week 17 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) @ New York Giants
With last week’s insane pass rate 27% below expected, the Colts have officially given up on asking Anthony Richardson to operate like a normal NFL quarterback. While the implications for his long-term future aren’t great, this change is great for his short-term fantasy value. Since his return from the bench, he has averaged 11.4 fantasy points with just his legs (51.4 yards per game and a touchdown). With those numbers, he just needs one passing touchdown and 125 passing yards to have a 20-point game — even he should be able to pull that off.
That is especially true this week, as the Giants are an excellent matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They rank 14th in terms of points per game given up to the position, but that undersells how bad their pass defense has been. The Giants’ passing volume has been low because of their own offense’s incompetence, but they give up the fourth-highest dropback expected points added (EPA) and second-highest adjusted net yards per attempt in the league. They also give up the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. In a must-win game for their playoff hopes, expect the Colts to continue leaning heavily on Richardson’s legs, which should set him up for a good outing in this matchup.
Bad Matchup: Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sam Darnold has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of the last six weeks. Overall, this year has been easily the best of his career, making the most of a great situation in Minnesota. Unfortunately, he won’t find himself in a great situation for Week 17 and the fantasy football championship.
The Packers give up the second-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks at just 14.6. For the season, they give up the third-lowest dropback EPA in the league at -0.036. Since their bye in Week 10, that number has fallen to -0.072, the lowest mark in the league. With all that said, Darnold has been productive enough that he’s not a must-bench. But if you’ve been using him as a member of a committee (or even just if someone like Richardson is available on your waiver wire), I’d consider leaving him on your bench for Week 17.
Week 17 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Bucky Irving (RB – TB)/Rachaad White (RB – TB) vs. Carolina Panthers
Normally, it’s hard for two running backs in the same backfield to both have a productive day. But the Panthers’ defense has been so generous to opposing running backs that Bucky Irving and Rachaad White can be in a great spot this week. The Panthers have given up 27.3 points per game to opposing backs, while no other team is at even 25. Not only do they face the most running back rushing attempts per game (27.7), but they also give up the highest yards per attempt (5.09).
It should be noted this sets up better for Irving than White, as the rookie has been the Buccaneers’ preferred rusher in recent weeks. But White has also seen double-digit carries in five of the last six games. Even last week, in which he saw just three carries, he salvaged a decent day thanks to eight targets. Against most other teams, I’d consider White a very risky play and Bucky an RB2. Against the Panthers, Irving is a borderline RB1, and White is a safe Flex option.
Bad Matchup: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Remember how I started the last blurb by saying it was hard for two running backs in the same backfield to both produce in the same week? Well, that’s especially true when you have the worst possible matchup, and that is the position Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren find themselves in this week.
The Chiefs allow a league-low 13.2 points per game to opposing running backs. Their run defense is the polar opposite of the Panthers, facing the second-fewest attempts per game and giving up the second-lowest yards per attempt. Making matters even worse (especially for Warren), Kansas City’s defense also gives up the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Given how split this backfield has been in recent weeks, neither player is someone you can trust in your fantasy football championship matchups.
Week 17 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Romeo Doubs (WR – GB) @ Minnesota Vikings
Despite facing stiff competition from some truly terrible pass defenses around the league, the Vikings lead the NFL with 33.7 points per game given up to opposing wide receivers. They rank first in both receptions and yards allowed per game, as well as sixth in touchdowns. The other great thing about Minnesota as a matchup is they have the offensive firepower to force the Packers to pass. We know Green Bay is willing to pound teams into the ground with Josh Jacobs if given the opportunity, but the Vikings aren’t likely to let that happen.
Honestly, the hardest part of this decision was picking a Packer receiver to feature — as you might have heard, their receiver room is very crowded. However, Romeo Doubs is the player we can trust to be on the field most consistently, with a 77% average route participation rate that easily leads the team for the season. He also gets the nod over Jayden Reed because the Vikings’ defense is slightly softer against outside receivers than slot receivers. If you’re looking for a receiver to stick in your lineup this week, Doubs (who is still available in just over 50% of leagues) might be the player you need.
Bad Matchup: Jameson Williams (WR – DET) @ San Francisco 49ers
For all their struggles, one thing the 49ers have done this season is shut down opposing receivers. They rank second-lowest in terms of points given up to the position (23.5), as well as giving up a league-low 123 yards per game. Technically, the 49ers’ defense is toughest against slot receivers, but I wasn’t about to tell you not to start Amon-Ra St. Brown. Instead, Jameson Williams, who has had a solid season but certainly is not immune to a down game or two, is the player I am highlighting here.
Williams has had some boom games but also has six finishes outside the top 24 receivers. If we’re looking for reasons to believe in Williams, the Lions may have to air it out thanks to the absurd number of defensive injuries they have accumulated throughout the season — this is a game with a very healthy 50-point total. But with how volatile Williams’ production has been and how tough the 49ers’ defense has been on wide receivers, I lean toward sitting the third-year wideout if you have another solid option.
Week 17 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have fallen to fourth in points per game given up to opposing tight ends with 12.4, but they are still arguably the softest defense against the position in the entire league. After all, no team allows more yards per game to tight ends than Kansas City’s 72.7. They’ve been diced up by big names, but they’ve also given up solid days to plenty of non-elite tight ends, including a 91-yard game to Mike Gesicki and a 54-yard outing to Stone Smartt.
Don’t get me wrong, this matchup does not mean Pat Freiermuth is someone to start over any of the league’s elite fantasy tight ends. With George Pickens set to return for this Christmas Day matchup, he will likely find himself hovering around a 65% route participation rate and a 13% target share. Those aren’t particularly inspiring numbers. But if you find yourself staring at a waiver wire full of uninspiring tight ends, this positive matchup is a great reason to give Friermuth a shot.
Bad Matchup: Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Like Freiermuth, Jake Ferguson is a member of the ‘Tight End Wasteland’ (TM). Unlike Freiermuth, he has a truly terrible matchup this week against the Eagles, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing tight ends. Philadelphia’s defense allows just 4.1 receptions and 36.5 yards per game to tight ends, the fifth-lowest and second-lowest marks in the league.
They’ve shut things down in recent weeks, with Mark Andrews being the only tight end to surpass 50 receiving yards against them since Week 8. Playing Ferguson against Philadelphia is essentially just hoping he will find his way into the end zone, which doesn’t seem likely, given the Cowboys have a minuscule 15.5-point team total and he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. Even coming off a promising nine-target outing, Ferguson is not a TE1 for Week 17.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.