Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 16)

We have reached Week 16 and the fantasy football semifinals. Obviously, every single game at this point is a must-win, so it’s more important than ever to make sure you put your team in the best place to succeed. With that in mind, it’s time to find the best (and worst) fantasy football matchups for Week 16 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed Tool – let’s get started!

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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 16)

Week 16 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Kyler Murray (QB — ARI) @ Carolina Panthers

I know, I know. Nobody wants to trust Kyler Murray coming off a miserable 10.1-point outing against the Patriots (another theoretically good matchup) in Week 15. But he has an excellent matchup this week with the Panthers, who allow the sixth-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Kyler’s big problem this season has been finding the end zone, and the Panthers’ defense gives up the most passing TDs per game to opposing QBs at 1.93. Carolina also ranks third in dropback EPA allowed, as well as 10th in terms of rushing yards per game given up to quarterbacks. As a bonus, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Murray records at least one passing touchdown as Arizona goes out of their way to get Trey McBride his first receiving TD of the year – they tried last week with a shovel pass by the goal line, and a matchup with the lowly Panthers is a great opportunity to try again.

Bad Matchup: Tua Tagovailoa (QB — MIA) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Prior to last week’s dud, Tua had scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his previous four outings. Unfortunately, the 2020 fifth-overall pick may be due for another down week in Week 16. The 49ers give up the seventh-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but that may be underselling how tough of a matchup they have been. No team gives up fewer than San Francisco’s 194.0 quarterback passing yards per game, and the 49ers also give up the 10th-fewest passing TDs per game. They are slightly weaker in terms of quarterback rushing production, but Tua isn’t exactly a dual-threat quarterback. If you survived Tua’s down week last week, I would look elsewhere for the fantasy football semifinals.

Week 16 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB — NE) @ Buffalo Bills

Normally, the top of the table in terms of fantasy points given up to running backs is filled with truly terrible teams. That’s the case this year, as the five best matchups for RBs are all teams with four or fewer wins … with the glaring exception of the 11-3 Super Bowl favorite Bills. Buffalo gives up the second most points per game to opposing RBs, but they do so in a unique way. While they rank roughly average in terms of rushing production allowed, Buffalo’s defense is incredibly soft when it comes to running backs catching passes out of the backfield. They lead the league in receptions and receiving yards given up to RBs, and rank second in terms of receiving touchdowns. Put it all together, and Buffalo gives up 10.5 receiving points per game to running backs – no other team is above 8.8. This sets up well for Stevenson, who has maintained a solid 10% target share in the Patriots’ offense this season. The Patriots will almost certainly be playing from behind, and their offensive line is terrible; that’s a perfect recipe for Rhamondre to rack up check-down targets. He can be started as an RB2 or FLEX play this week.

Bad Matchup: Isiah Pacheco (RB — KC) vs. Houston Texans

The Texans rank as the fourth-toughest opponent for fantasy running backs, giving up just 16.1 points per game. This wouldn’t be an issue if Pacheco were in his early-season workhorse role, but his usage since returning from injury has been far from ideal. Last week, his third week back, Pacheco saw essentially identical usage to Kareem Hunt. The veteran and the third-year back saw the same number of snaps (28 or 37%), rush attempts (13), and targets (one). The only piece of usage where they diverged was routes, as Hunt actually ran eight to Pacheco’s seven … while Samaje Perine beat them both at 11. In a bad matchup with lackluster usage, Pacheco is someone to bench if you have another option for Week 16.

Week 16 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: D.K. Metcalf (WR — SEA) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Since returning from his midseason MCL injury, Metcalf has struggled to get much of anything going. He has averaged just 7.6 Half-PPR points per game, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba has ascended to the tune of a 14.8-point average. However, their usage hasn’t been as dissimilar as you might think. Metcalf has a 20% target share to JSN’s 24% and easily leads the sophomore with an elite 41% air yards share. The issue has simply been conversion, as Metcalf is playing well below his expected fantasy points since returning from injury. However, I recommend giving him one more chance if he is on your roster. This week, the Seahawks face the Vikings, who lead the league with a massive 33.4 points per game given up to opposing receivers. Minnesota gives up 191 yards per game to WRs, 10 yards more than the second-place Jaguars (who have an atrocious pass defense of their own). The usage is still there, and I don’t think Metcalf has suddenly lost all his talent. Hopefully, this excellent matchup is the thing he needs to provide a huge return to form.

Bad Matchup: Josh Downs (WR — IND) vs. Tennessee Titans

After missing a game (and the bye week) with a shoulder injury, Downs returned to the Colts’ lineup in Week 15. He posted an 86% route participation rate, which was actually easily his highest of the season (this was likely because Alec Pierce was ruled out for a concussion). He also immediately returned to his elite target-earning ways, racking up eight targets for a 21% share. Unfortunately, those eight targets were from Anthony Richardson, so it’s not too surprising that only three were catchable. To his credit, Downs caught all three of those catchable targets, but three receptions for 32 yards isn’t an ideal stat line. Things aren’t likely to get better for Downs in Week 16, as he faces a Titans defense that gives up the fifth-fewest points per game to opposing receivers. This matchup may actually be even worse than that, as the Titans give up just 6.1 Half-PPR points per game to players lined up in the slot, the third-lowest in the league. To be fair, Downs, who runs 84% of his routes from the slot, managed seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee in Week 6 … but that was in a Joe Flacco game. With the NFL’s least accurate QB under center and in a tough matchup, Downs should be left on fantasy benches this Sunday.

Week 16 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: David Njoku (TE — CLE) @ Cincinnati Bengals

We don’t know yet if Njoku will return after missing Week 15 with a hamstring injury, but early reports indicate that he has a shot. If he does return, Njoku will get an excellent matchup with a Bengals defense that allows a league-high 13.8 points per game to opposing tight ends. When it comes to tight end production allowed, Cincinnati ranks first in receptions, second in touchdowns, and third in yards, the only team to rank top three in all three metrics. Tuesday’s announcement that the Browns will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson instead of Jameis Winston does make this play slightly less appealing. Winston has been providing unparalleled levels of volume, while DTR has been arguably the worst QB to appear in the NFL this season. However, we saw Njoku play three games with DTR in 2023. In those three games, the UCLA product looked his tight end’s way often, peppering Njoku with over 10 targets per contest. Njoku managed just 8.5 Half-PPR points per game in those three weeks, but his expected points per game was a massive 18.0. In a great matchup with a QB who loves to look his way, Njoku is an elite TE1 play if he manages to suit up this week.

Bad Matchup: Jonnu Smith (TE — MIA) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jonnu Smith is the fantasy TE4 for the season. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, he is the TE1, and it’s not even particularly close. However, he is headed for a truly brutal matchup in the fantasy football semifinals. With Fred Warner manning the middle of the field, the 49ers give up just 6.8 points per game to opposing tight ends, the second-lowest mark in the league. They rank first in the league with just 35.1 yards per game to the position. Usually, a stat like that is reflective of some easy matchups, as receiving TE talent varies wildly across the league. But the 49ers have faced and shut down some of the league’s best tight ends, including Trey McBride (53 yards), Travis Kelce (17 yards), Tucker Kraft (26 yards), and Jake Ferguson (23 yards). Given that Jonnu was available on waivers in essentially every league to start the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if plenty of his managers have another solid-to-elite TE option. If you do, I would give them the nod over Smith this week.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.