Ted Chmyz | Wed, Dec 11th 2024, 6:02am EST

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 15)

Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs! That is, I assume you made the playoffs if you are reading this article. If you are still playing to avoid a Toilet Bowl punishment, good luck, and I’m sorry. If you aren’t playing for anything but are still reading this article, I get it; I don’t want the season to end, either. Regardless of why you’re here, it’s playoff time, so it’s more important than ever to make the right decisions when setting your fantasy football lineups. With that in mind, it’s time to find the best (and worst) fantasy football matchups for Week 15 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed Tool — let’s get started!

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 15)

Week 15 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Justin Herbert (QB — LAC) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After posting a six-week stretch in which he didn’t fall outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks, the last two weeks have been rough for Justin Herbert. In Week 13, the Chargers’ offense completely collapsed, even in a good matchup with the Falcons, and Herbert managed just 33 yards to players not named Ladd McConkey. In Week 14, McConkey was absent; Herbert played better but still finished with just 13.7 fantasy points against a tough Chiefs defense. This week, however, he gets the ultimate slump-buster in the form of a matchup with the Buccaneers’ secondary. Tampa Bay gives up 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, the most in the league. If quarterbacks playing the Buccaneers were a single player, that player would be the QB5 in points per game. That’s even more impressive when you realize that well over half of that Franken-QB is made up of Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Aidan O’Connell, Tommy DeVito, and Desmond Ridder. Herbert is easily better than everyone on that list, and there’s a chance he gets McConkey back as well. Fire him up with confidence.

Bad Matchup: Matthew Stafford (QB — LAR) @ San Francisco 49ers

Matthew Stafford has been absolutely cooking since his top two receivers returned to the field, with 19.8 fantasy points per game since Week 8. Even that number undersells how good he has been when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are fully available, as it includes games where one or both exited early due to suspension or injury. Unfortunately for Stafford, he gets a tough divisional matchup this week against the 49ers. On paper, the 49ers’ defense isn’t that intimidating of a matchup, tied for just the 11th-fewest points allowed to opposing QBs. But they have been particularly tough in terms of limiting passing production, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. The only reason they don’t look better on paper is high TD rates for opposing quarterbacks, both on the ground and through the air. Stafford isn’t much of a rusher, and a high TD rate on low passing yardage seems primed for regression. With no teams on bye this week, you should be able to find a better QB option than Stafford for the first matchup of the fantasy playoffs.

Week 15 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Rico Dowdle (RB — DAL) @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and it isn’t even close. They allow 27 points per game; the Jaguars are second at just 24.9. Some of that can be blamed on their horrendous offense, which has improved of late, but most of the blame rests on what is simply the league’s worst rush defense. Carolina ranks first in yards per game given up to RBs, second in EPA allowed per rush, and third in yards per carry for opposing running backs. That sets up excellently for Dowdle, who has finally established himself as the workhorse RB1 in Dallas’ backfield, with an elite 90% RB Rush share in Week 14. It might feel risky putting Dowdle in your lineup for the fantasy playoffs, especially given that the Cooper-Rush-led Cowboys are underdogs for this road matchup. But he should see enough volume against the soft Panthers’ defense to come through with a solid day.

Bad Matchup: James Cook (RB — BUF) @ Detroit Lions

Like Dowdle, Cook is coming off a week with an excellent RB rush share, as he actually was the only Bills running back to record a carry in Week 14. Unfortunately for Cook, he still only saw six carries, as Josh Allen was the entire Buffalo offense on Sunday. Of course, that was an odd game script, as the Bills were playing from behind. You would need a truly dominant offense to make this Buffalo team play from behind … uh-oh. The Lions are a fantasy running back’s nightmare, as they combine the best offense in football with an elite run defense. Not only do they face just 17 RB rush attempts per game (the lowest in the league), but they also allow the fifth-fewest yards per carry. Put it together, and it’s not surprising that they give up just 15.0 points per game to opposing RBs, the lowest number in the league. Cook isn’t a must-bench, as we know he has big play potential. But if you’ve got another viable option, I would consider starting them over Cook on the road in Detroit.

Week 15 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jakobi Meyers (WR — LV) vs. Atlanta Falcons

You may have heard about the Vikings’ receivers absolutely tearing apart the Falcons’ secondary, as Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson combined for 265 yards and three touchdowns. That massacre was just part of a trend, as the Falcons’ defense ranks second with 32.8 points per game given up to opposing receivers. Things have gotten even worse of late, as they rank second in the league in terms of dropback EPA allowed since Week 10. Meanwhile, Jakobi Meyers has been racking up targets on the Raiders’ offense, with a dominant 25% target share since Davante Adams‘ departure. Vegas’ quarterback situation isn’t ideal, but the volume and matchup for Meyers are too good to ignore — maybe we will get a Desmond Ridder Revenge Game.

Bad Matchup: Jordan Addison (WR — MIN) vs. Chicago Bears

Fresh off his aforementioned demolition of the Falcons, I imagine many fantasy managers will be happily sliding Jordan Addison into their lineups for Week 1 of the playoffs. Unfortunately, I am here to advise caution, as Addison is heading straight from an elite matchup into a terrible one. The Bears give up the second-fewest points per game to opposing receivers at just 23.4, and no team allows fewer receptions to receivers. Addison isn’t necessarily a must-bench. After all, he caught eight passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against this same Bears team just a few weeks ago. But he has also been very boom-or-bust, with five weekly finishes outside the top 40 receivers in 11 games. Given the tough matchup, I’m worried we see another floor game from the second-year WR this week.

Week 15 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jake Ferguson (TE — DAL) @ Carolina Panthers

When it comes to fringe fantasy tight ends, nothing is more important than touchdowns. And nobody gives up more touchdowns to tight ends than the Carolina Panthers, at 0.77 TDs per game. I mentioned this stat last week, and Grant Calcaterra found pay dirt, so hopefully, we can keep the streak going with another NFC East tight end. Ferguson saw solid usage in his Week 14 return to the field, racking up six targets (a 19.4% share) on a 74% route participation rate. To be fair, he only caught three of those targets for 32 yards, as the other three Cooper Rush attempts were uncatchable. But I still like his chances to have a solid day against the Panthers, who lead the league with 14.1 points per game given up to tight ends.

Bad Matchup: Dalton Kincaid (TE — BUF) @ Detroit Lions

I am assuming that Kincaid will return from his knee injury this week, but this same message would also apply to Dawson Knox if he is out. Even after giving up two touchdowns to Tucker Kraft last week, the Lions are still easily the worst matchup for fantasy tight ends, allowing just 5.8 points per game. They allow opposing TEs to catch just 3.6 passes per game for a measly 32 yards, both the lowest numbers in the league. When healthy, Kincaid has been just a borderline TE1, averaging just 6.5 Half-PPR points per game. I don’t care where you drafted him; he can’t be trusted in a brutal matchup in his first week back from injury, especially not with seasons on the line.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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