Ted Chmyz | Wed, Dec 4th 2024, 6:47am EST

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 14)

This is it. As soon as the NFL schedule came out, fantasy managers looked ahead with dread to this Week 14 slate. For the vast majority of leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season, with playoff berths on the line. Six teams are on bye, including some of the league’s best offenses.

In by far the most important week of the fantasy season thus far, fantasy managers will have to make some difficult decisions to fill spots in their lineups this week. After a glorious single week with no byes and all 32 teams in action, my standards will once again be lowered as I try to find the best (and worst) fantasy football matchups for Week 14 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed Tool — let’s get started!

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 14)

Week 14 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Will Levis (QB — TEN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week, I listed C.J. Stroud against this same Jacksonville defense, and he was a huge disappointment… but are we sure that Will Levis isn’t a better fantasy quarterback than Stroud at this point? Levis scored at least 16 fantasy points in the last four weeks, including two top-10 finishes. Now, he gets to face the Jaguars, who, despite Stroud’s best efforts, lead the league with 22.6 points per game given up to opposing QBs. For a more advanced stats illustration of how truly terrible their pass defense is, Jacksonville gives up 0.312 EPA per dropback; no other team is above even 0.175 (the Patriots). I know that trusting Will Levis with your fantasy football playoff hopes potentially on the line doesn’t feel great, but he’s the top widely available streaming option for Week 14.

Bad Matchup: Jameis Winston (QB — CLE) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy managers are likely rushing to add Jameis Winston after he absolutely lit up an elite Broncos defense on Monday Night Football. However, we know that Winston is a player who runs hot and cold, and we may be in for a dose of reality from “Bad Jameis” this week. The Steelers give up just 13.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the lowest mark in the league. They held Jameis himself to just 13.46 points just two weeks ago in Week 12 (to be fair, that was a snow game). I wouldn’t say that Winston is a must-bench — his volume has been absolutely absurd since taking over as the Browns’ starter (43.6 attempts per game), and the Steelers actually give up an above-average number of passing yards per game. But I also don’t recommend plugging him into your starting lineup without thinking twice if you have other reasonable options.

Week 14 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Tony Pollard (RB — TEN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s almost impressive how bad the Jaguars’ defense is. As well as being the softest fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, they also give up the second-most points per game to opposing running backs. To be fair, there is some overlap there, as the Jaguars rank third in the league with 46.3 receiving yards per game given up to opposing RBs. That sets up excellently for Pollard, who, along with seeing great volume on the ground, ranks sixth among RBs with a 13.6% target share for the season. I would have hesitated to recommend Pollard with Tyjae Spears healthy. However, Spears was healthy last week, and Pollard still saw an elite workload: a 72% snap share, a 54% route participation rate, a 16% target share, and eight of the team’s nine RB carries. If he sees a workload anywhere near that against this Jaguars defense, Pollard should get the job done.

Bad Matchup: Gus Edwards (RB — LAC) @ Kansas City Chiefs

It may seem like a cop-out to have Edwards listed as my bad matchup for this week. After all, even with J.K. Dobbins sidelined, the veteran recorded just six carries and one target on a 52% snap share in Week 13. But, especially with the number of teams on bye, Edwards is in the starting RB discussion by sheer virtue of being the lead RB on a decent offense — he is currently the RB27 in FantasyPros’ Consensus Rankings for Week 14. That puts him firmly on the starting radar … but I am here to say he shouldn’t be. This Chiefs defense has been a brutal matchup for opposing RBs, giving up just 13.1 points per game. They allow the fewest rushing yards to RBs per game at just 57.5 and rank second-lowest in terms of receiving yards given up as well (22.7). Playing Edwards is essentially hoping he falls into the end zone, and Hassan Haskins actually has three goal-line carries to his one since Week 10. If you have another RB with a pulse, I would start them over the Gus Bus this week.

Week 14 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jayden Reed (WR — GB) @ Detroit Lions

I consider myself a card-carrying Jayden Reed doubter. However, I am willing to change my opinion depending on circumstances, and this week sets up excellent for the second-year wide receiver. For one, he is coming off his first game since all the way back in Week 5 (okay, I had to do a little hating) with a target share of over 20%. This happened with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and Doubs will not necessarily be back in time for the Packers’ Thursday Night Football matchup. Even if Doubs plays, this matchup is excellent for Reed. Overall, the Lions rank as the sixth-softest matchup for fantasy receivers. But they are particularly susceptible to players working out of the slot, where they rank second with over 100 yards allowed per game. That is perfect for Reed, who has run 79% of his 2024 routes out of the slot. The other great thing about this matchup for Reed (and the rest of the Packers’ receivers, by the way) is that the Lions are 3.5-point favorites. The Packers have been the fourth most conservative team in the league in terms of pass rate vs. expected this season, but they will have to pass to keep up with Detroit’s explosive offense. A potential negative game script is especially good for Reed as it would mean more three-WR sets (he has run just two routes all year with two or fewer receivers on the field). If even I am willing to back Reed, it means he is definitely a must-start, so get him in your lineups.

Bad Matchup: Jaylen Waddle (WR — MIA) vs. New York Jets

Waddle has shown signs of life in a thoroughly disappointing season in recent weeks. He has by far his best outing of the season in Week 12 and followed it up with four catches for 53 yards on an elite 90% route participation rate (by far his best of the season) in Week 13. Unfortunately, I don’t expect his hot streak, if we can call it that, to continue in Week 14. The Jets rank dead last in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, with just 21.7 per game. They are a tough matchup across the board, ceding the fewest receptions, third-fewest yards, and second-fewest touchdowns to the position. Meanwhile, their offense is imploding, so the Dolphins are six-point favorites at home this week. This isn’t the Miami offense of past years that would run up the score at will. In a tough matchup where the Dolphins may not need to pass much, I expect another quiet outing from Waddle.

Week 14 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Grant Calcaterra (TE — PHI) vs. Carolina Panthers

After suffering a knee injury in Week 13, Dallas Goedert is reportedly week-to-week. That means he will, at the very least, miss this Sunday’s matchup, leaving Calcaterra as the Eagles’ primary tight end. In four weeks without Goedert earlier this season, Calcaterra averaged a solid 16% target share on an elite 83% route participation rate. This week, he gets to face the Panthers, who allow a league-leading 14.5 points to opposing tight ends. To be fair, a large portion of that scoring has been touchdowns, but they still rank 10th in receptions and eighth in yards given up to TEs. More importantly, we would absolutely take a touchdown from Calcaterra, who is still just a deep-league streaming option. The Eagles have a massive 29.5-point total for this one. As long as Saquon Barkley doesn’t hog all the production for himself (which is a real risk), I like Calcaterra’s chances to rack up a few catches and hopefully score his first NFL touchdown.

Bad Matchup: Tucker Kraft (TE — GB) @ Detroit Lions

The Lions have allowed just 5.2 points per game to opposing tight ends. It is true that they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of the game’s elite TE’s (outside of Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson, the best fantasy TE they’ve faced was probably Kraft himself in Week 9). But it’s still impressive that they give up the fewest receptions, yards, and touchdowns per game to the position. Meanwhile, Kraft has performed like a fringe TE1, ranking ninth in points per game but still capable of dropping duds, including a complete donut in Week 11. I would leave him on your bench for Week 14 if you have another option.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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