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    Andrew Swanson | Tue, Dec 17th 2024, 6:50pm EST

Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice: Week 16 (2024)

As I close out another season of writing about kickers, what I affectionately call the red-headed stepchildren of the fantasy industry, I’d like to thank everyone for reading this column throughout the ups and downs of the past 16 weeks.

Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice: Week 16

There were some hits and misses, including my preseason breakout candidate Cairo Santos not panning out, but overall, the Kscore helped identify numerous undervalued kicker plays.

This past week, Chad Ryland was ranked as the 18th kicker according to ECR, but his Kscore indicated a top-5 week. That proved to be the case, and Ryland scored a hefty 14 fantasy points.

The Kscore also indicated a monster game for Chase McLaughlin of the Bucs against the Chargers defense in Los Angeles. I went out on a limb somewhat and ranked him first overall when the rest of the industry had him 10th. The game script played out well, and McLaughlin scored a week-best 18 fantasy points.

These two examples highlight this article’s goal, proving that fantasy points can be found from streaming kickers if you know what to look for and are willing to go against conventional wisdom and start a player like Ryland, who is rostered in fewer than 8% of leagues.

Week 15 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers

Will Reichard (K – MIN) @ Seattle Seahawks: 9% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

The fantasy community got this one right by having a top-5 ECR for Reichard in a home matchup against the Bears. I had him second in my rankings, and he finished third behind Aubrey and McLaughlin.

Cam Little (K – JAX) vs. New York Jets: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

After scoring 19 points combined in his previous four weeks, Little exploded with 15 points in what turned out to be a game full of fantasy goodness against the Jets.

Week 15 Dud Performances From Heavily-Owned Kickers

Jake Bates (K – DET) vs. Buffalo Bills: 80% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

Bates missed a 50-yard try that would have given him 11 fantasy points on the day. Instead, he managed just six points on six extra tries in a shootout vs. Buffalo. I mentioned Bates instead of Justin Tucker simply because I am tired of piling on the GOAT.

Week 15 Kicker Rankings:

Rank ECR Name TEAM Opponent Over/Under Spread OPP RZ D RZ EFF* OFF RNK K Score** Weather
1 8 Younghoe Koo ATL vs. NYG 42.5 -10 15 5 9 19 Dome
2 10 Brandon McManus GB vs. NO 42.5 -12.5 8 18 4 17.5 28F, 6 MPN Wind
3 2 Jake Bates DET at CHI 46.5 -7.5 3 30 1 26.5 28F, 8 MPH wind
4 1 Brandon Aubrey DAL vs. TB 47.5 4.5 10 4 17 35.5 Dome
5 3 Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU at KC 40.5 -2.5 12 14 19 42.5 34F, light wind
6 12 Jake Moody SF at MIA 46.5 2.5 6 9 8 25.5 73F, Light Wind
7 5 Chris Boswell PIT at BAL 46.5 6.5 16 1 18 41.5 35F, 12 MPH Wind
8 6 Cameron Dicker LAC vs. DEN 42.5 -3 2 16 26 41 Dome
9 17 Justin Tucker BAL vs. PIT 46.5 -6.5 14 31 1 39.5 35F, 12 MPH Wind
10 7 Tyler Bass BUF vs. NE 46.5 -14 23 29 7 45 12F, Slight Chance of Snow
11 9 Will Reichard MIN at SEA 4.5.5 -2.5 11 23 12 43.5 50F, Heavy Rain
12 11 Wil Lutz DEN at LAC 42.5 3 1 22 22 48 Dome
13 13 Cade York CIN vs. CLE 49.5 -7 19 28 10 50 31F, 6 MPH Wind
14 14 Jake Elliott PHI at WAS 46.5 -4 29 21 6 52 31F, 10 MPH Wind
15 4 Chase McLaughlin TB at DAL 47.5 -4.5 32 26 3 56.5 Dome
16 15 Chad Ryland ARI at CAR 46.5 -4.5 26 11 11 43.5 40F, 6 MPH Wind
17 25 Greg Joseph WAS vs. PHI 46.5 5 4 25 5 39 31F, 10 MPH Wind
18 16 Jason Sanders MIA vs. SF 46.5 -2.5 30 20 20 67.5 73F, Light Wind
19 21 Joshua Karty LAR at NYJ 47.5 -3 20 13 13 43 26F, 10 MPH Wind
20 18 Matt Gay IND vs. TEN 42.5 -4.5 27 12 21 55.5 Dome
21 19 Harrison Butker KC vs. HOU 40.5 2.5 28 6 14 50.5 34F, light wind
22 20 Jason Myers SEA vs. MIN 45.5 2.5 13 8 15 38.5 50F, Heavy Rain
23 22 Anders Carlson NYJ vs. LAR 47.5 3 6 11 24 44 26F, 10 MPH Wind
24 23 Cam Little JAC at LV 39.5 -1.5 23 15 25 61.5 Dome
25 24 Eddy Pineiro CAR vs. ARI 46.5 4.5 5 17 31 57.5 40F, 6 MPH Wind
26 26 Nick Folk TEN at IND 42.5 4.5 17 7 27 55.5 Dome
27 27 Daniel Carlson LV vs. JAC 39.5 1.5 22 3 28 54.5 Dome
28 28 Joey Slye NE at BUF 48.5 14 18 2 30 64 12F, Slight Chance of Snow
29 30 Blake Grupe NO at GB 42.5 12.5 20 24 15 71.5 28F, 6 MPN Wind
30 31 Dustin Hopkins CLE at CIN 49.5 7 31 19 23 80 31F, 6 MPH Wind
31 32 Graham Gano NYG at ATL 42.5 10 25 0 29 64 Dome
32 29 Cairo Santos CHI vs. DET 46.5 7.5 8 27 32 74.5 28F, 8 MPH wind

 

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 1st in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 16.

Justin Tucker (K – BAL) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 99% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

It may be odd to include Tucker here based on his struggles, but the matchup against the Steelers is a 39.9 Kscore for the GOAT, and this slogfest and this AFC North battle could be a field goal fest.

Jake Moody (K – SF) at Miami Dolphins: 66% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

Moody boasts one of the lowest kscores on the week, and the Dolphins have given up the third-most points to opposing kickers. I like him to score at least 10 points this week,

Week 16 Prediction Review

Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Chad Ryland (K – ARI) vs. New England Patriots: 7% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

  • ECR Rank: 18
  • My Rank: 10
  • Week 15 Finish: 5

Ryland proved to be a great option and a week-winning player rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo Leagues. He could be another strong play this week on the road against Carolina.

Zane Gonzalez (K – WAS) @ New Orleans Saints: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo

  • ECR Rank: 23
  • My Rank: 7
  • Week 15 Finish: T11

The K Score predicts kicker opportunities, and it proved to be correct in the case of Greg Joseph, the Washington kicker who filled in for the injured Gonzalez. Joseph missed a 50-yard try that would have made him a top-10 play on the week. Instead, he managed a respectable 9 points and finished 12 spots ahead of his ECR.

Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups

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