Welcome back, champions! NFL Week 17 is officially in the books, which means the fantasy football championships are all but complete in most leagues! Congratulations on your championship.
But the fun doesn’t have to end with all the ways we can play fantasy football.
As we head into Week 18, my focus is team motivation, contract incentives and playoff/2025 outlooks for players. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays and player props.
My goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
PrizePicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Week 18. Roll those season-long winnings into even more cash with playoff football on the horizon. And can’t forget it’s prime contract incentive season.
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Week 18 Fantasy Football Forecast
Kansas City Chiefs
Stock Up Xavier Worthy & Marquise Brown & Travis Kelce | Sell Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco
The Kansas City Chiefs put on an impressive offensive performance, with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge. The quarterback completed 29 of his 38 passes for 320 yards, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. Mahomes was efficient and displayed excellent decision-making, recording a passer rating of 127.1.
In the rushing game, the Chiefs spread the workload among several players. Kareem Hunt led the way with nine carries for 20 yards, including a touchdown. Isiah Pacheco added 18 yards on six attempts, while Mahomes had a 12-yard scramble for a touchdown. Hunt led the snaps with a 48% rate with two red-zone carries.
Xavier Worthy contributed with 10 yards on 2 carries, and Samaje Perine added 9 yards on 2 attempts.
The receiving corps saw significant contributions from multiple players. Travis Kelce led all receivers with 8 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Kelce’s performance was key, as he had a 24% Target share (11 total targets), accounting for 51 air yards and contributing to 24% of the team’s air yards.
Xavier Worthy, with 24% of the Target share (9 total targets), caught 8 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Worthy posted a 0.7 aDOT and accumulated just 6 air yards as we used primarily as an underneath YAC option.
According to Next Gen Stats, Worthy hauled in a season high 8 receptions on 8 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown, with most of his production coming on open (3+ yards of separation) targets (7 receptions, 58 yards, 1 touchdown).
Worthy recorded 72 of his yards after the catch (season-high), for +21 yards after the catch over expected, his most in a game in 2024.
The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11.
He has four catches or more in seven straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests.
Justin Watson made the most of his limited opportunities, hauling in 2 receptions for 60 yards and one touchdown, including a 49-yard gain. Watson’s 25.5 aDOT made him a big-play threat, and he totaled 51 air yards (24% air yards share %).
Marquise Brown recorded four catches for 46 yards and helped keep the chains moving. He had a 31% Target share (7 total targets while being targeted on 37% of his routes), totaling 67 air yards (9.6 aDOT). Brown only played 40% of the snaps as he looks to get up to speed in the offense.
I’d imagine he will not be one of the Chiefs starters that sits given how much game action he has missed all season.
Samaje Perine added 20 yards on two catches, while Juju Smith-Schuster caught two passes for 18 yards on two targets. Smith-Schuster played 50% of the snaps, which ranked second among the Chiefs WRs. Perine and Smith-Schuster accounted for 6% of the Target share.
DeAndre Hopkins added 7 yards on 2 receptions on four targets, posting a 13% Target share (4 total targets) and 27 air yards. He also played his standard sub-50% snap share.
Hopkins is one TD away from a $500K bonus, so it’s possible he will get some red-zone looks in Week 18 to get him into the end zone.
No. 2 tight end Noah Gray also caught one pass for 6 yards, contributing to the Chiefs’ passing attack in a minimal role.
The Chiefs will rest their starters in Week 18. Their No. 2’s will hope to play spoiler against the Broncos, who need to win to make the postseason. Because it will be mostly different Chiefs playing in Week 18, I won’t rehash the last matchup between the two teams from KC’s perspective.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Stock Up Pat Freiermuth | Sell Najee Harris
The Pittsburgh Steelers were led offensively by Russell Wilson, who completed 23 of his 37 pass attempts for 205 yards. Wilson didn’t throw a touchdown but also avoided any further turnovers, finishing with a passer rating of 65.7.
Wilson has tossed for at least 224.5 passing yards in four of his seven games played with George Pickens healthy this season.
In the rushing game, Najee Harris was the primary ball carrier, finishing with 74 yards on 13 attempts, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Harris also displayed his toughness on the ground, although he was held out of the end zone.
Jaylen Warren was also involved, adding 71 yards on 11 attempts, averaging a strong 6.5 yards per carry. Wilson himself had 55 yards on 6 attempts, with a long run of 15 yards. Cordarrelle Patterson contributed with a single carry for 2 yards.
Harris was out snapped by Warren 53% versus 45%. They also split carries in the first half, with Warren seeing eight to Harris’ seven. Warren was vastly more efficient and had a TD called back on an offensive holding penalty. He also logged four red-zone touches.
Warren has out-snapped Harris in four straight weeks. He also did more red-zone work for the second straight game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Warren recorded 71 yards on 11 carries against the Chiefs, including a season-high 3 explosive runs.
Warren generated +12 rushing yards over expected, his most RYOE in a game this season. Warren recorded most of his rushing yards after contact, averaging 5.0 yards after contact per carry in Week 17, his 2nd-most in a game this season.
The receiving game saw a mix of performances. Tight end Pat Freiermuth led the charge with 7 catches for 60 yards, earning 23% of the Target share on eight targets (two red-zone targets). He was a steady presence in the passing game and had a solid average of 8.6 yards per catch.
However, he lost a fumble at the end of the game that sealed the victory for the Chiefs. Still I’d expect him to continue to produce in another plus-matchup in Week 18.
George Pickens had a productive day with 3 catches for 50 yards on seven targets, including a long 41-yard reception, and accounted for 40% of the team’s air yards.
He was not limited in his playing time as he saw a 91% snap share. He had another 18-yard catch come off the board on a penalty. Pickens finished with a 20% Target share.
Jaylen Warren was also heavily involved, catching 5 passes for 41 yards on six targets (17% Target share), while Calvin Austin added 31 yards on 4 receptions operating as the Steelers No. 2 WR. Warren was targeted on 40% of his routes out of the backfield.
The Bengals are also the 31st-ranked defense against No. 2 WRs.
Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his last eight games.
Tight ends Connor Heyward and Darnell Washington each contributed 1 reception for 8 yards, while Harris added 7 yards on 2 catches.
Mike Williams and Van Jefferson didn’t factor into the receiving game, and neither recorded any catches. They played under 50% of the snaps (41% and 43% respectively). Williams caught a moonball from Russ, but it was overturned on review (49 air yards).
The Steelers are in the playoffs but will need to beat the Bengals to improve their seeding in the playoffs on Saturday while also playing spoiler against their AFC North rivals. Even if the Ravens win, I’d imagine Mike Tomlin wants his guys to play well and build momentum into the postseason, as opposed to entering on a four-game losing streak. Lines have already tightened between the Steelers-Bengals to CIN -1.5.
This is what happened in their previous matchup back in Week 13 per the Week 14 fantasy forecast:
Russell Wilson delivered a stellar performance, completing 29 of 38 passes for 414 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. His impressive 126.4 passer rating highlighted his efficiency and command of the game. He spread the wealth between all of his receivers, working mostly underneath, but he was efficient going downfield.
According to Next Gen Stats, Wilson completed 8 of 9 passes over 10 air yards for 205 yards and two touchdowns (+34.8% CPOE, his 3rd-highest mark in a game over the last seven seasons).
Najee Harris led the ground game with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with a long run of 20 yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson contributed 16 rushing yards on three carries, all in the first half, as he briefly outpaced Jaylen Warren in opportunities early in the game.
Jaylen Warren was limited to three carries for nine yards, with a long run of 6 yards.
Najee Harris scored one touchdown with three red zone carries, while Jaylen Warren carried once and was targeted once without a score.
Warren turned in an impressive receiving performance, catching all 4 of his targets for 55 yards, including a 29-yard gain. His 54 yards after the catch showed his ability to create in space.
Najee Harris mirrored Warren’s efficiency in the passing game, catching all six targets for 54 yards, with a team-high 69 yards after the catch.
Cordarrelle Patterson received more carries than Jaylen Warren in the first half, contributing as a versatile weapon early in the game.
Harris led the way with a 52% snap rate compared to Warren’s 36% and Patterson’s 14%.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals’ defense missed 14 tackles against the Steelers (tied for the defense’s most in a game this season) and allowed 91 yards after missed tackles.
They allowed nine missed tackles in the first half alone. The Bengals entered the week with the second-lowest missed tackle rate league-wide (11.0%). However, the unit was without linebacker Logan Wilson, who has the 10th-lowest missed tackle rate (7.1%) among linebackers (min. 50 tackle attempts).
But the rest of the schedule is brutal for these Steelers RBs. The Steelers play vs CLE, @ PHI, @ BAL and vs KC.
Harris had just 41 yards rushing the last time he faced the Browns (Week 12).
Justin Fields and Russell Wilson added 7 and 3 rushing yards, respectively, on designed runs and scrambles.
George Pickens was the primary deep threat, catching 3 of 6 targets for 74 yards and a red-zone touchdown. His 36-yard reception showcased his big-play ability, and he led the team in average yards per reception (24.7).
Pat Freiermuth was a reliable target, catching 6 of 7 passes (team-high 18% Target share) for 68 yards and a red-zone touchdown, demonstrating his value as a go-to option for Wilson.
It was by far Muth’s best game with Russ at QB. It was a great matchup for him against the Bengals so I wouldn’t overanalyze it based on his role not changing.
Calvin Austin III caught both of his targets for 29 yards, including a 23-yard touchdown, but unfortunately left the game due to injury.
Other contributors included Cordarrelle Patterson (37 receiving yards), Van Jefferson (43-yard reception), and Ben Skowronek (23-yard reception).
Jefferson was second in WR snaps.
Austin’s absence might have also aided in Muth’s boosted Target share.
Mike Williams ran a route on 29% of the dropbacks. His routes fell for the second straight game, and he failed to command any targets. However, given Austin’s injury and Pickens’ constant on-field antics, Big Mike might see a huge spike in usage in the next few weeks. Sneaky add.
Baltimore Ravens
Hold Mark Andrews | Stock Up Isaiah Likely | Buy Zay Flowers
The Baltimore Ravens showcased a solid all-around offensive effort in their Week 17 matchup. Lamar Jackson, completing 10 of 15 passes for 168 yards, threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 143.9. Jackson also contributed on the ground, rushing for 87 yards on four attempts, including a 48-yard run and a rushing touchdown.
In the rushing game, Derrick Henry was the standout with 147 yards on 27 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scoring a rushing touchdown. Keaton Mitchell added 20 yards on 11 carries, while Lamar Jackson’s scrambling ability kept the defense on edge. Rasheen Ali had a minimal impact, with a single carry for -3 yards.
The receiving game saw multiple contributors. Mark Andrews was the top target, finishing with 2 receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown on just two targets, including a 67-yard long catch.
Zay Flowers, with 36% of the Target share (5 total targets all in the first half), caught 2 passes for 31 yards. His 79 air yards showed his ability to stretch the field, contributing to 44% of the team’s air yards. Flowers had another 16-yard catch wiped away on a penalty. The second-year Ravens WR was targeted on 38% of his routes run.
Flowers also has a 35% Target share over the last two games. I like the MORE THAN 56.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks in Week 18.
Devontez Walker, despite not recording a reception, had significant air yards (63 yards) on 2 targets, contributing 35% of the team’s air yards. Keaton Mitchell also contributed in the passing game with 1 reception for 28 yards.
Rashod Bateman caught a pass for 12 yards on his lone target, while Isaiah Likely grabbed 1 reception for 9 yards and a touchdown. Likely played a team-high 76% of the snaps, while Bateman played just 44% of the snaps.
Look for both Ravens tight ends to find the end zone, given the Browns have been vulnerable against that position in the red zone, allowing the second-most red-zone targets to TEs this season.
Derrick Henry and Tylan Wallace also had limited involvement, combining for 4 receptions for 20 yards. Wallace was the WR3 in snaps played with Nelson Agholor out.
The Ravens will host the Browns as massive favorites versus the Browns in Week 18 to win the AFC North. Cleveland beat Baltimore earlier this season, 29-24, but Jameis Winston started that game.
Here’s what else happened via the Week 9 fantasy forecast:
Lamar Jackson completed 23 of 38 passes for 289 yards and threw two touchdown passes, ending with a passer rating of 101.8 and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt.
Derrick Henry led the ground game with 11 carries for 73 yards, scoring once on an impressive 39-yard run. Jackson also contributed 46 rushing yards on eight attempts, keeping the defense on their toes.
Snap counts: Derrick Henry: 51%. Justice Hill: 50%
In the receiving department, Zay Flowers stole the spotlight with seven catches on 12 targets for a total of 115 yards, including a 29-yard-long play. Flowers was heavily targeted with a 34.29% share, collecting 195 air yards, representing 53.57% of the team’s air yardage.
Isaiah Likely was a reliable target, hauling in all four of his targets for 47 yards. He has another two targets removed by penalties. Likely received one red zone target without a touchdown.
Nelson Agholor added a receiving touchdown with three catches for 36 yards on five targets, while Mark Andrews scored as well, catching all five of his targets for 36 yards. Andrews was targeted twice in the red zone and scored once.
Agholor was targeted once in the red zone and scored. Mark Andrews ran a route on 63% of dropbacks compared to Likely’s 60%. Andrews commanded a 14.29% Target share, adding 29 air yards (7.97% of air yards). Likely had 11.43% of the targets but only 1 air yard (0.27%).
Positive usage for Andrews, as his routes surpassed Likely’s for the first time since Week 2—very much positive development for Andrews (along with all the TD scores). Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill each had a single catch, with Bateman’s going for 28 yards. Bateman saw five targets but had a killer drop on a deep ball from Jackson that he lost in the sun.
Nose tackle defensive tackle Michael Pierce left the game with an injury.
Houston Texans
Stock Down Joe Mixon
The Houston Texans offense was led by C.J. Stroud, who completed 17 of his 31 pass attempts for 185 yards, but he was unable to find the end zone through the air and threw an interception. Stroud’s passer rating ended at 59.2. Backup quarterback Davis Mills also saw action, completing 1 of 1 pass for 5 yards.
In the rushing game, Dameon Pierce contributed 13 yards on five attempts but struggled to get much going, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry.
Joe Mixon added 26 yards on 9 carries, also averaging a modest 2.9 yards per carry. Mixon was held to just a 48% snap share in the blowout. He had seven carries in the first half.
Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in five of his last seven games.
Dare Ogunbowale had a brief but effective showing with 12 yards on 2 attempts, including a long of 9 yards. Stroud also had a 7-yard rush to contribute to the team’s ground attack.
The receiving corps was led by Nico Collins, who was the focal point of the passing attack with 59 yards on 3 receptions, accounting for 42% of the team’s air yards. Collins averaged a strong 21.2 average depth of target and contributed 19% of the Target share.
John Metchie was another key contributor, hauling in 5 receptions for 48 yards on 8 targets, registering a 26% Target share and 8.8 aDOT. Metchie tied Collins for the team lead in snaps played among the Texans WRs at 71%. He led the team in routes run.
Xavier Hutchinson added 21 yards on 2 receptions, while Dalton Schultz caught 2 passes for 21 yards, accounting for 16% of the air yards despite seeing six targets (19% Target share).
Schultz has 33-plus receiving yards in four of his last seven games.
Robert Woods contributed 21 yards on two catches.
Mixon’s 25 yards after the catch also highlighted his effort despite a quiet rushing performance (2 catches for 13 yards on three targets). Cade Stover caught 1 pass for just 1 yard.
They will face the Titans in Week 18, and they are underdogs because Houston has nothing to play for. However, the lines have moved dramatically, from +4.5 to +1.5 as of Tuesday, as there might be a chance Houston plays their starters after an abysmal showing on Christmas. Stroud talked about how winning double-digit games is important to them.
The Titans are also trash. Bill Callahan said both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis will play in Week 18. Good grief.
Here’s what happened in the first matchup between these AFC South teams when they first played back in Week 12. Note that Houston won this game outright 32-27 at home.
C.J. Stroud completed 20 of 33 pass attempts for 247 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt and finished with a 78.7 passer rating.
Joe Mixon struggled on the ground, managing only 22 yards on 14 carries for a 1.6 yards per carry average, with a long of 8 yards. The Titans run defense is no joke.
Mixon at least added value as a pass-catcher, securing five of six targets for 23 yards.
C.J. Stroud contributed 18 rushing yards on three attempts, averaging 6 yards per carry.
Nico Collins led the Texans’ receiving group, hauling in five of nine targets (29% Target share, 39% air yards share) for 92 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 18.4 yards per reception, with a long of 56 yards. Collins for the second straight game had another TD called back on a penalty.
His snaps and routes were back up, and he smashed. Collins WR1szn is full go. Jacksonville Jaguars up next. Gulp.
Tank Dell made the most of his opportunities, catching three of five targets for 72 yards, including a 39-yard reception. He left production on the table – like he seemingly has done most of this season – with 100 air yards.
Tight end Cade Stover had a solid performance with three catches on four targets for 26 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.7 yards per catch. Dalton Schultz was efficient, catching both his targets for 20 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception. Schultz plays the majority of snaps, but he just can’t command targets in this offense.
Stover is an interesting guy to keep tabs on though, given his history with Stroud. He was targeted on 57% of his routes in Week 12. Schultz could never.
Robert Woods contributed a single reception for 8 yards.
John Metchie III caught one of three targets for 6 yards.
Xavier Hutchinson was targeted once but did not record a reception.
Collins and Dell continue to provide explosive plays, with Collins accounting for a 56-yard gain and Dell contributing a 39-yard reception.
Seattle Seahawks
Buy Geno Smith | Stock Up Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Seattle Seahawks relied on their balanced offensive attack in their Week 17 game. Geno Smith, the starting quarterback, completed 17 of 23 passes for 160 yards but did not throw a touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 92.7. Smith’s efficient passing helped move the ball downfield, although the Seahawks were unable to capitalize with a touchdown.
Geno Smith is now under 34.5 pass attempts in eight of his last 10 games. But with no playoffs on the line in Week 18, we could see Smith sling the ball more than ever.
Smith has contract incentives for exceeding several passing statistics. He gets a whopping $2M if he passes for 186-plus yards, achieving a 69.5% completion rate, and with Seattle winning their 10th game of the year. It could be a fat pay day for Geno if he plays his cards right in Week 18.
Take the more than on Smith’s 252.5 passing yards on Prizepicks in Week 18.
In the rushing game, the Seahawks saw contributions from several players. Zach Charbonnet led the team with 57 yards on 15 carries, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, while Kenny McIntosh added 46 yards on 7 attempts, averaging a solid 6.6 yards per carry. Smith also scrambled for 19 yards on three carries. Despite the positive yardage, no Seahawks running back found the end zone on the ground.
Charbonnet was a full-blown workhorse with Kenneth Walker out (placed on IR), playing 75% of the snaps.
The receiving corps saw standout performances from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the team with 65% of the air yards share and 27% of the Target share. Smith-Njigba caught 3 passes for 32 yards on six targets, averaging 8.5 yards per reception.
Per Next Gen Stats, Smith-Njigba entered Week 17 with 8 straight games with 65+ receiving yards. It was the longest active streak in the NFL and tied for the longest single-season streak in Seahawks history (with HOF Steve Largent).
D.K. Metcalf caught all 3 of his targets for 42 yards, including a long of 23 yards, and accounted for 41% of the team’s air yards share. Tyler Lockett added three receptions for 20 yards on four targets, while Noah Fant had four catches for 43 yards (three in the first half) on five targets (23% Target share).
Despite his positive yardage, Fant had a slightly negative average depth of target through his 43 yards after the catch helped propel the offense. Zach Charbonnet caught 3 passes for a total of 19 yards.
All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.
Seattle will finish the season against the Rams in a rematch of Week 9. The Rams have little to play for in Week 18 outside a longshot chance of locking the No. 3 seed should Tampa lose to the Saints. They will know the outcome of that game by the the time the play in the late window.
Here is that game’s recap. And you can see where I went wrong on JSN halfway through the year…
Quarterback Geno Smith had a mixed performance, completing 21 of 34 passes for an impressive 363 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw three interceptions. He finished with a completion rate of 61.8%, a passer rating of 90.7, and averaged 10.7 yards per attempt.
On the ground, Kenneth Walker III led the rushing attack with 25 carries, gaining 83 yards at an average of 3.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 10 yards. Walker had four red zone rush attempts, 0 rush TDs, one red zone target. I’d buy Walker without much shine on him entering a bye week. He hasn’t scored in back-to-back games but has some favorable matchups in the second half of the season.
Geno Smith added 16 rushing yards on six carries, while Zach Charbonnet contributed with two carries for 8 yards.
In the receiving game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout performance, catching 7 of his 13 targets for an outstanding 180 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 25.7 yards per reception, including a long of 46 yards and gaining 50 yards after the catch.
Smith-Njigba had two red zone targets and one red zone touchdown–227 air yards, 65.04% air yards share, 38% Target share.
It was a career game for JSN, who I called a “sell-high” last week. Not great. I got impatient with JSN, presuming this breakout game would never come to fruition. And although I was wrong about selling JSN last week, I still think that is the sharp move to make. After all, selling a WR after 180 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams (reminds me of Marvin Harrison Jr. back in Week 2) I think is the right process.
Keep in mind that both DK Metcalf and Noah Fant were inactive. According to Next Gen Stats, Smith-Njigba’s air yards share was the highest share in a game by a Seahawks receiver since Week 2, 2022 (Tyler Lockett, 69.7%).
He was used as a deep threat for the first time. He recorded three receptions on five such targets for a career-high 99 yards and a touchdown. Smith-Njigba had zero deep receptions on five targets entering Week 9; he had yet to record multiple deep receptions or eclipse 35 deep receiving yards in his career heading into Week 9.
JSN’s ADOT in this matchup was 20.3 yards. It hasn’t surpassed 11 yards in any other game this season.
LA’s defense has been terrible all season. The Rams defense has now allowed 7 deep passing touchdowns, top of the NFL.
Tyler Lockett provided a big-play threat, securing 3 of his four targets for 63 yards and a touchdown, averaging 21 yards per catch, with a long reception of 30 yards–71 air yards, 20.34% air yards share, 12% Target share.
Cody White also made an impact, hauling in 2 of his three targets for 44 yards, including a 28-yard catch, and accumulating 15 yards after the catch. Tight end AJ Barner was active in the short passing game, catching 4 of 7 targets for 27 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per catch. He had two red-zone targets but didn’t score. Barner ran a route on 77.27% of dropbacks, filling in for an injured Noah Fant (inactive).
Zach Charbonnet showed versatility with two catches on three targets for 25 receiving yards, with a notable 24-yard catch and a strong 28 yards after the catch. Walker III added 24 receiving yards on three catches, demonstrating his ability to contribute in the passing game with a long of 18 yards and 31 yards after the catch. Jake Bobo was targeted once but did not record a reception.
Chicago Bears
Buy Rome Odunze
The Chicago Bears struggled to generate consistent offense in their Week 17 game, despite solid individual performances in the rushing game and from a few key players in the passing attack. Caleb Williams, the quarterback, completed 16 of 28 passes for 122 yards, but he did not throw any touchdowns and had one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 53.0.
Williams was active with his legs, rushing for 37 yards on 5 carries, averaging a solid 7.4 yards per carry, but was unable to find the end zone on the ground.
The rushing attack was led by D’Andre Swift, who had 53 yards on 12 carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Swift played 66% of the snaps.
Swift has rushed for more than 60 rushing yards twice in his last nine games played. And just once in games with Roschon Johnson active since Week 11.
Swift added 28 yards on four receptions on five targets. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run.
Caleb Williams provided a spark in the running game with 37 yards on 5 carries, but D.J. Moore and Roschon Johnson were held to limited production on the ground, combining for 13 yards on 6 attempts.
The receiving corps was led by D.J. Moore, who caught 6 passes for 54 yards, contributing 31% of the Target share and 51 air yards.
D.J Moore has gone over 5.5 catches in every single game since Thomas Brown took over as the Bears play-caller
Rome Odunze, with 47% of the air yards share (78 air yards), caught one pass for 15 yards but was more involved in the downfield passing game, averaging a significant 19.5 aDOT. He also caught a TD, but it was called back on a penalty.
In the final week of the season, I could see Odunze used the most as the youngest piece in the offense.
Keenan Allen had a quieter day, catching five passes for 25 yards despite eight targets.
Even so, over the last seven games, Allen has led the team in targets (70, 30%), second in yards (482), and first in TDs (5). Allen has gone over 59.5 yards in four of his last six games.
Gerald Everett saw limited involvement with just one target, which resulted in no catches, but added 17 yards in air yards.
Chicago will play Green Bay in Week 18, where the Packers do not have much to play for besides playoff wildcard seeding.
This is a rematch of a Week 11 game in Chicago that the Bears should have won versus the Packers.
Caleb Williams put together a solid performance in Week 11, completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards. While he didn’t record a touchdown or interception, his 74.2% completion rate and passer rating of 95 highlighted his efficiency, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
In his first game in the post-Shane Waldron era, Caleb Williams averaged his quickest time to throw of his career, getting rid of the ball in 2.42 seconds after the snap.
Williams was effective on quick passes, completing 15 of 18 passes for 141 yards and averaging +0.28 EPA per quick pass. His quick passing mitigated pressure, facing his fewest pressures (8) and lowest pressure rate (20.5%) of the season. Williams also set career highs in rushing yards on both scrambles (49) and designed runs (21), picking up five first downs on the ground overall.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears averaged the highest EPA per play (+0.23) and their 2nd-highest success rate (47.8%) in a game this season. Key to the Bears’ improved efficiency was their sustained drives. The Bears ran at least seven plays on their first six drives, with four of those drives having double-digit plays. The Bears hadn’t had four drives with 10+ plays in a game since Week 3.
On the ground, Williams added 70 rushing yards on nine carries, showcasing his dual-threat ability with an impressive 7.8 yards per carry.
D’Andre Swift was a key contributor in the run game, leading with 14 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with a long gain of 39 yards. Roschon Johnson chipped in with 33 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. D.J. Moore also added five rushing yards on a single attempt.
Swift out-carried RJ eight to two in the first half. But Swift also only played 57% of the snaps to Johnson’s 42%. That was a season-high snap rate for Johnson and the lowest for Swift since Week 3.
Johnson also had four red-zone rushing attempts, which resulted in one touchdown. Swift only had one red-zone attempt.
In the passing game, Rome Odunze led the receiving corps (again) with six catches on 10 targets for 65 yards, averaging 10.8 yards per reception and a long gain of 21 yards: 32% Target share, 53% air yards share, and 32% target rate.
D.J. Moore was flawless, catching all 7 of his targets for 62 yards and averaging 8.9 yards per reception, with an impressive 55 yards after the catch. Note that all of these were short-quick hitters. Moore had six air yards. He converted his only red-zone target into a reception without scoring.
Cole Kmet provided a reliable option at tight end, hauling in all 3 of his targets for 42 yards, including a 25-yard long reception.
Keenan Allen contributed 41 yards on four catches from ten targets, with a 17-yard long gain. Allen continues to gobble up targets, but he is brutal with his efficiency.
Swift and Johnson were also involved in the passing game. Swift caught both of his targets for 13 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per reception, while Johnson caught his lone target for 8 yards.
Los Angeles Chargers
Stock Up J.K. Dobbins
The Los Angeles Chargers had a strong offensive showing, particularly in the passing game, as Justin Herbert completed 26 of 38 passes for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns, finishing with an impressive passer rating of 116.2. Herbert showcased his ability to distribute the ball efficiently, connecting with multiple receivers throughout the game.
In the rushing game, J.K. Dobbins led the way with 76 yards on 19 carries, averaging 4.0 yards per carry and scoring 1 touchdown. He resumed his RB1 duties even in a blowout, playing 53% of the snaps.
Dobbins can get an additional $150K each if he reaches thresholds of 900 and 1,050 rushing yards. He is sitting at 842 rushing yards entering Week 18, meaning he needs 58 yards to hit 900.
Hassan Haskins added 30 yards on 8 attempts, while Kimani Vidal rushed for 24 yards on five carries. Haskins did have a role around the goal line though, taking a direct snap from the 12-yard line and seeing another carry from the 10-yard line.
But overall, the lesser Chargers RB numbers were slightly boosted by touches after the LA starters had left the game.
Herbert added a solid 12 yards on 3 carries, and Taylor Heinicke contributed 8 yards on a single rush. Despite the success on the ground, the Chargers’ running game was kept in check for the most part.
In the receiving game, Ladd McConkey was the standout player, recording 8 receptions for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. McConkey accounted for 30% of the Target share and 25% of the air yards (113), showcasing his ability to stretch the field.
Josh Palmer had 4 receptions for 41 yards (two red-zone targets, 82 air yards) on six targets, while Quentin Johnston added 5 receptions for 48 yards on eight targets (20% Target share). Derius Davis caught 2 passes for 29 yards, including a touchdown.
Stone Smartt contributed 23 yards on 2 catches, while Tucker Fisk added 8 yards on a single reception. Will Dissly had 21 yards on 2 receptions on three targets.
Kimani Vidal, J.K. Dobbins, and D.J. Chark each had limited impact in the passing game, with Chark failing to record any receptions despite four targets and 49 air yards.
Dissly returned after missing the last few weeks with a team-high 44% snap share among the Chargers TEs. Stone Smartt did run one more route than Dissly, however.
Palmer got hurt in this game, so we could see more of Chark in Week 18. Palmer seems very likely to miss Week 18 but should return for the postseason.
The Chargers will face the Raiders in Week 18, and the Bolts might not have much to play for, especially if the Steelers win on Saturday. They can only move up to the No. 5 seed. If the Steelers win, nothing can change for them.
Jim Harbaugh was non-committal about his team playing their starters. Given their success is on the shoulders of a healthy Justin Herbert, I would say they try to keep him out of harm’s way. Raiders +5.5 is the lock of the week.
Meanwhile, LV might want to finish the season on a high note with the potential for a three-game win streak.
This is a rematch from Week 1, which seems like decades ago. Here’s the recap of that game from the Week 2 fantasy forecast FWIW:
Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a balanced offensive performance, completing 17 of 26 passes for 144 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, finishing with a 92.5 passer rating. While Herbert’s passing yards were modest, he efficiently spread the ball around to multiple receivers.
The star of the day was J.K. Dobbins, who dominated on the ground with 135 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging an impressive 13.5 yards per carry, including a 61-yard touchdown run that showcased his explosiveness. Per Next Gen Stats, Dobbins posted a career-high +98 rushing yards over expected. He scored from the 12-yard line and led the backfield with a 58% snap share.
Gus Edwards contributed with 26 rushing yards on 11 carries. Edwards had 3 red-zone carries to Dobbins’ 2. Dobbins had the lone carry from inside the 10.
In the first half, the carries/snaps favored Edwards, but Dobbins broke out in the second half. However, it should be noted that he was caught from behind on some of his long runs. Dobbins is explosive, but it’s clear that very top-notch gear is still lacking due to all the lower body injuries. As somebody who was pounding the table for Dobbins all offseason (and for someone who is just happy to see him healthy), I am thrilled with Week 1. But I want to be realistic.
As I discussed with @FBInjuryDoc, Edwin Porras, he suggested that Dobbins start strong (see Week 1) but fail to sustain production for the long haul. It pains me to write this, but as I loved Dobbins so much as a selection, but the sharp move might be just to cash out while you can. It’s possible Dobbins could have an outlier “Raheem Mostert 2023” season, but that’s not practical. At least put him on the trade block and see what bites.
In the passing game, Ladd McConkey led the team with seven targets, catching five passes for 39 yards (27% Target share, 33% target rate), with a fourth quarter TD – 76 percent route run rate.
Quentin Johnston was another key contributor, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 38 yards, making up 19% of the Target share. He was a starter running a route on 83% of the dropbacks.
Tight end Hayden Hurst had a solid outing, catching 2 of 3 targets for 33 yards (11.5% Target share).
Hurst is the TE to own in LA (low bar) after he ran a route on 79 percent of the dropbacks.
Joshua Palmer added 15 yards on 2 receptions from 4 targets (0-for-2 in the red zone with no TDs), though he struggled to generate much yardage. He still was the Chargers route leader at 93% despite getting ejected in the fourth quarter.
Will Dissly caught his lone target for 13 yards.
J.K. Dobbins had limited involvement in the passing game, hauling in 2 passes for 4 yards. Gus Edwards was targeted once but did not record any receptions.
New England Patriots
Buy Austin Hooper & Hunter Henry & Antonio Gibson
The New England Patriots had a mixed offensive performance in their Week 17 matchup, with some solid contributions but ultimately struggling to find consistent success.
Drake Maye, the starting quarterback, completed 12 of 22 passes for 117 yards and 1 touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 84.8. Maye managed the offense without turning the ball over but was unable to light up the scoreboard through the air. He also left the game briefly after taking a shot to the head, but he returned to game action.
Maye has thrown for 200-plus yards in eight out of 12 games played this season and in five of his last seven games.
In the rushing game, Antonio Gibson led the way with 63 yards on 12 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Maye contributed with 32 yards on 6 attempts, also averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Rhamondre Stevenson had limited success, rushing for just 1 yard on 2 attempts, while Jacoby Brissett added a small negative rush for -2 yards.
Maye has rushed for 26+ yards in eight out of 12 games played this season,
We got a report pre-game – along with rumblings all week – that Gibson would start. That was not the case, as Stevenson started. He got the first carry for five yards. And then Gibson worked in on the next drive. But the usage flip-flopped throughout the game. Six of Gibson’s 12 carries came when the game was 40-7 on the final drive of the fourth quarter.
This game hardly suggests that Gibson is the RB1 in Week 18, but rather Stevenson was completely game-scripted out. The final snaps were 55% for Gibson and 45% for Stevenson.
The first-half carries were two versus three in favor of Gibson. The Patriots barely had the ball in the first half and were limited to just 15 offensive plays. WOOF.
FWIW, Gibson is 117 offensive yards from a $500K bonus if he hits 800 yards from scrimmage. Maybe they feed versus the Bills’ leaky run defense that has shown major lapses against RBs in the passing game.
The receiving corps saw some solid individual performances.
Demario Douglas was the top target, catching 4 passes for 46 yards and 1 touchdown. He accounted for 22% of the Target share (five targets) and 43 air yards, including a long of 36 yards.
Kayshon Boutte also contributed with 4 receptions for 28 yards and 29% of the Target share (5 total targets), while Kendrick Bourne added 22 yards on 2 catches, accounting for 17% of the Target share (four targets).
Hunter Henry was a forgotten part of the passing game as well, although he was held without a reception. He also played a very low snap share at 57% likely because of the game getting out of hand.
Ja’Lynn Polk made a brief appearance with 1 target for 23 yards, but he didn’t record a reception. Austin Hooper caught 3 passes for 19 yards on three targets, contributing 13% of the Target share, while Javon Baker, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Antonio Gibson all had limited involvement. Stevenson had two receptions wiped away by offensive penalties.
Hooper hit the first leg of his contract incentives last week as he went over 40 receptions on the season for a $125K bonus. With four more catches to reach 45 receptions, he can earn another $125K bonus.
Buffalo (most likely their backups led by Mitchell Trubisky) will visit the Patriots in Week 18. The Patriots are down bad right now, and they might be without star CB Christian Gonzalez.
Week 18 will be a rematch of a Week 16 game where the following happened (after the Patriots opened up 14-0).
Rhamondre Stevenson was the leading rusher for the Patriots, carrying the ball 12 times for 60 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards and one red-zone touchdown. However, he also lost a fumble.
Drake Maye rushed 6 times for 30 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 13 yards. Take the over on Maye’s rushing yards for Week 17.
Antonio Gibson had 10 rushes for 28 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson had one reception for 13 yards, with a long of 13 yards.
Antonio Gibson caught two passes for 8 yards, with a long of 4 yards.
The final snaps were 59% for Gibson and 44% for Stevenson.
I know this final snap count will undoubtedly want those to bury Stevenson, but don’t get this twisted. Gibson also fumbled in this game and got stuffed at the goal line for a three-yard loss. Technically, Stevenson might be in the doghouse for two fumbles, given that he failed to corral a pitch from Maye that resulted in a Bills defensive touchdown.
DeMario Douglas contributed one rush for 6 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards.
Dante Pettis had one rush for 2 yards, averaging 2.0 yards per carry, with a long of 2 yards.
Maye was the quarterback for the Patriots, completing 22 of 36 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a passer rating of 90.2.
Maye has thrown for 200-plus yards in eight out of 11 games played this season and in five of his last six games.
Kayshon Boutte was the leading receiver, catching five passes on nine targets (22% Target share) for 95 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 31 yards. He continues to make downfield splash plays (43% air yards share 100-plus air yards), and we could see him hold a huge role in that capacity in Week 17 versus the Chargers pass defense that has struggled against deep passes.
Austin Hooper had five targets, catching four passes for 55 yards with a long reception of 26 yards.
Hunter Henry caught four passes on nine targets (28% Target share, three in the red zone) for 39 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 12 yards. He remains the most reliable Patriots pass-catching option.
DeMario Douglas had five targets, catching four passes for 33 yards, with a long reception of 13 yards. He also caught a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but it was overturned on review. Kendrick Bourne caught two passes on two targets for 18 yards, with a long reception of 9 yards. Javon Baker was targeted once but did not record a reception. However, his usage was slightly different as he played more than fellow rookie Ja’Lynn Polk.
Denver Broncos
Buy Courtland Sutton | Stock Up Marvin Mims & Audric Estime
The Denver Broncos had a balanced offensive effort in their Week 17 matchup, with key contributions from both their rushing and passing attacks.
Bo Nix, the starting quarterback, completed 24 of his 31 passes for 219 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 114.9. Nix effectively distributed the ball, finding success with multiple receivers in both short and deep routes.
In the rushing game, Jaleel McLaughlin was the lead back after missing a week, rushing for 69 yards on 10 carries, averaging an impressive 6.9 yards per carry. McLaughlin contributed 7 yards on 2 catches, while also logging a carry from inside the 8-yard line.
He started but played the fewest snaps (23%) among the top three Broncos RBs.
Nix himself contributed with 31 yards on seven attempts, while Audric Estime added 24 yards on 9 carries, though he struggled with a low 2.7 yards per carry average on a 30% snap rate. Although the rookie did lead the Broncos in carries in the first half.
The rookie QB tends to run more when he is an underdog, (7 of 9) toward the over in his rushing props. As heavy favorites versus the Chiefs B-team, I am going way under his rushing prop this week.
Nix rushed for -5 yards the last time he faced KC. Only one time this season has Nix rushed for more than 24.5 rushing yards as an underdog (6-1 toward the under).
Javonte Williams played the most snaps at 37% but he failed to record a carry. He had two targets for zero yards. As an impending free agent, his time in Denver seems all but over. Nothing more than RB used in passing downs.
The Broncos’ running game was solid, but they couldn’t quite find the end zone on the ground.
The receiving corps was led by Marvin Mims, who caught all 8 of his targets for 103 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 51 yards.
Mims accounted for 26% of the Target share and 27% of the air yards share. The second-year WR was targeted on 47% of his routes.
The routes are finally there for Mims, and he is shining. He also has had five-plus touches in five of his last seven games.
Courtland Sutton also played a key role, with 5 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Sutton led the team with 29% of the Target share and a whopping 49% air yards share (110).
Sutton needs 82 yards to earn $500k per @PropTailz. Per Spotrac, Sutton’s incentives are the following:
- 1,500 Receiving Yards or 10 Receiving TDs + Playoff Berth: $200,000
- $500,000 each for 1,065 Receiving Yards (plus team improves on 2023 Total Points or Yards/Attempt)
- $500,000 for 900 receiving yards + team ranks Top 10 in Yards/Pass Attempt
Sutton has at least 70 receiving yards in six of his last nine games. Take the MORE THAN 69.5 receiving yards this week on PrizePicks.
Devaughn Vele caught both his two passes for 27 yards, while Estime added 13 yards on a reception.
Nate Adkins, Adam Trautman, and Lucas Krull each made minor contributions. Troy Franklin was largely quiet, catching only one pass for -1 yard on two targets.
Denver will look to lock up a playoff berth against the Chiefs in Week 18.
They narrowly lost to KC earlier this season on a blocked field goal.
Here’s what else happened in that contest per the Week 11 fantasy football forecast:
Quarterback Bo Nix completed 22 of 30 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 115.3 and an average of 7.2 yards per attempt.
In the rushing attack, Audric Estime led the team with 14 carries for 53 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a long run of 10 yards. Marvin Mims Jr. added 17 yards on three carries, while Jaleel McLaughlin contributed 12 yards on two attempts, averaging 6 yards per carry. Mims seemed noticeably more involved with seven touches across the board and a red-zone reception. A lot of schemed touches for the second-year WR. He was the first Broncos player to have multiple carries. He was also targeted on 57% of his routes.
McLaughlin started, but Estime led the backfield with four carries in the first half. The rookie also had another 17-yard gain wiped out on a penalty. The Notre Dame product had two red zone rushing attempts to Javonte Williams‘ one.
Javonte Williams ran a route on 26% of dropbacks but finished with just three touches. After an up-and-down season, the clock has struck midnight on Williams. It’s over, folks.
Audric Estime: 26 snaps, 45% snap share
Javonte Williams: 17 snaps, 29% snap share
Michael Burton: 10 snaps, 17% snap share
Jaleel McLaughlin: 7 snaps, 12% snap share
McLaughlin ran a route on just 6% of dropbacks. As of right now, McLaughlin is a clear drop, with Williams taking over the pass-catching role “full-time.” IN shallower formats, both Williams/McLaughlin can be cut.
Because it’s FINALLY time for Estime. We have had signals that this change was coming, but finally we saw it happen in real time. Hopefully you were able to stash Estime ahead of the move, but if not he becomes the top waiver target this week.
That being said, per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos have a bottom-10 schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season.
Courtland Sutton led the receiving group with six catches on nine targets for 70 yards and a touchdown, averaging 11.7 yards per reception with a long of 32 yards. Led with a 33% Target share and 101 air yards, making up 52% of air yards.
Devaughn Vele caught all four of his targets for 39 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 9.8 yards per catch. Vele ran a route on 76% of dropbacks. Had a 15% Target share with 23 air yards, equating to 12% of air yards.
Troy Franklin ran a route on 47% of dropbacks. He registered a 7% Target share (two targets), totaling 45 air yards, which was 23% of air yards. I will continue to say it. Practice patience. The rookie will benefit from the upcoming matchups. His usage has at least stabilized. Eventually, one of these Nix deep balls will actually convert to Franklin.
Cincinnati Bengals
Add Khalil Herbert & Mike Gesicki
The Cincinnati Bengals had a highly efficient offensive performance in their Week 17 matchup, with Joe Burrow leading the charge. Burrow completed 39 of 49 passes for 412 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 122.1. Burrow’s ability to distribute the ball to various targets helped move the ball downfield effectively.
In the rushing game, Chase Brown was the lead back, rushing for 67 yards on 20 attempts, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Brown also caught 4 passes for 24 yards, contributing as a secondary receiving option.
Unfortunately, Brown got hurt toward the end of the game, putting his status in question for Week 18.
Joe Burrow himself contributed with 25 yards and one touchdown on 4 attempts, showing his mobility in the red zone. Khalil Herbert and Mike Gesicki had limited involvement in the running game.
The receiving corps was led by Tee Higgins, who caught 11 passes for 131 yards and three touchdowns, accounting for 34% of the air yards (115) with a 24% Target share.
His performance was a key highlight of the game, especially with the 31-yard touchdown grab. Higgins has 69-plus receiving yards in seven of his last nine games.
Ja’Marr Chase was also a major contributor, recording 9 catches for 102 yards, though he didn’t find the end zone (despite six red-zone targets). He accounted for 31% of the Target share and added a significant 111 air yards (32% air yards share).
Mike Gesicki, the tight end, had a solid game, catching 10 passes for 86 yards, and contributing 24% of the Target share (30% target rate). He led the Bengals with seven targets in the first half.
Gesicki had some contract incentives entering Week 17, and he smashed his over on 55 receptions. He is three receiving yards away from another $250K bonus (600-plus) and 2 TDs away from another $125K.
Andrei Iosivas added 59 yards on three catches on four targets, but he also had a 50-yard TD called back on a penalty.
Cam Grandy, Drew Sample, and Khalil Herbert were all involved in limited roles, with Sample making a brief appearance with 3 yards on 1 reception.
The Bengals need to beat the Steelers to keep their playoff hopes alive.
This is what happened in their previous matchup back in Week 13 per the Week 14 fantasy forecast:
Joe Burrow was in top form, completing 28 of 38 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. His 73.7% completion rate and a passer rating of 112.7 highlighted his efficiency and ability to exploit defensive weaknesses.
Chase Brown led the ground attack with 12 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, including a long run of 40 yards. Khalil Herbert chipped in with a single 14-yard carry.
Brown showcased his versatility, adding 30 receiving yards on 3 catches with an impressive 35 yards after the catch. He also scored on one of his two red-zone carries.
81% snap share for Brown. Elite role. Brown again had 100 combined yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown.
With his usage still elite post-bye week, Brown needs to be viewed as a fringe top-five fantasy RB rest of the season. Given Cincy’s must-win status from here on out, I think his role will hold.
Burrow added nine rushing yards on two attempts, showing his mobility when needed.
Ja’Marr Chase led the receiving corps, hauling in 6 of 9 targets (24% Target share) for 86 yards and a touchdown. His 49-yard catch was the highlight of the game, and he accumulated 58 yards after the catch, demonstrating his playmaking ability.
Tee Higgins caught 5 of 10 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown, with a long reception of 31 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Joey Porter Jr. lined up against Tee Higgins on 30 of his 41 routes, including 15 plays in press coverage.
With Porter as the nearest defender, Higgins was targeted twice with no receptions; however, Porter was flagged five times on the day (one of which was declined). On all routes, Higgins finished with five catches on a team-leading 10 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown.
Higgins had three red zone targets, catching one for a touchdown. Chase had two red-zone targets, catching one for a touchdown.
Mike Gesicki was a reliable target, catching all five passes thrown his way for 53 yards. He was targeted once in the red zone but did not score. His routes dipped back below 50%, so I don’t think he is a realistic option off waivers.
Andrei Iosivas contributed 35 yards and a touchdown on three catches, including a 17-yard grab.
Iosivas had one red-zone target and scored a touchdown.
Tanner Hudson was productive, catching all 4 of his targets for 28 yards. However, he played the fewest snaps among the Bengals’ top three TEs.
Arizona Cardinals
Hold Kyler Murray | Add Trey Benson & Michael Carter
The Arizona Cardinals put together an efficient offensive showing, with Kyler Murray leading the team. Murray completed 33 of 48 passes for 321 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 76.8. He also rushed for 32 yards on 4 attempts, contributing to the ground game but was limited to one touchdown pass.
In the rushing game, Michael Carter led with 70 yards on 13 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt.
Murray added 32 yards on four carries, and Michael Wilson and James Conner had limited impacts on the ground, combining for 11 yards on five attempts.
Murray is 50 rushing yards away plus one rushing TD from a $750K salary escalator.
Carter was the bell cow (72% snap share) after Conner was ruled out after re-aggravating his knee injury.
The receiving corps was led by Trey McBride, who caught 12 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, accounting for 36% of the Target share (16 total targets) and 28% of the air yards share. And he even left production on the table after a 34-yard catch was negated by a penalty.
Marvin Harrison Jr. followed closely with 6 receptions for 96 yards, catching 50% of the team’s air yards share (156 air yards) and contributing 22% of the Target share (10 targets).
Michael Wilson had four catches for 22 yards on six targets, while Zay Jones caught one pass for 19 yards. Elijah Higgins added 23 yards on two receptions, and Greg Dortch contributed 18 yards on three catches. Michael Carter added 11 yards on two catches, while DeeJay Dallas and James Conner were involved in limited roles in the receiving game.
The Cardinals will face San Fran in Week 18, a rematch of Week 5. After opening as underdogs, the lines have flipped in favor of the Red Birds.
Here’s the recap of the matchup from Week 6’s fantasy forecast.
In the Arizona Cardinals’ game, Kyler Murray completed 19 of 30 passes for 195 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He had a passer rating of 79.2 and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, completing 63.3% of his passes.
On the ground, James Conner carried the ball 19 times for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with a long run of 14 yards-79% snap share.
Conner is 12th in yards from scrimmage and seventh in touches this season. The Cardinals offense has looked at its best with him in the driver’s seat.
Kyler Murray added 83 rushing yards on seven carries, averaging an impressive 11.9 yards per carry, with a long of 50 yards and one rushing touchdown.
In the receiving game, Michael Wilson was the leading receiver, targeted six times (20% Target share), catching five passes for 78 yards, averaging 15.6 yards per reception. Tight end Trey McBride was targeted nine times (30% Target share), catching six passes for 53 yards. McBride had two red zone targets but did not make any catches or score. The big game has escaped the Cardinals tight end, but it’s coming based on the volume he is seeing.
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught just two of his seven targets (23%) for 36 yards. Wilson/Harrison each saw 95 air yards (43% air yards share). It was another up-and-down outing for Harrison, who sometimes looks out of sync with his quarterback. Now, they connected for a key reception at the end of this contest, but that was the main highlight. MHJ’s yards have dropped for four straight weeks since his Week 2 eruption against the Rams. Put him on the block and see if someone will overpay based on that Week 2 performance. Despite leading Arizona with a 25% Target share this season, Harrison is third in catches (17) behind McBride (20) and Wilson (19).
Murray’s receivers are getting open at the fourth-lowest separation rate this season (3.1), with MHJ ranking DEAD LAST in average separation rate at 1.9 per Next Gen Stats. His 48.6% catch rate ranks 6th-worst.
James Conner added 14 receiving yards on two catches from three targets.
Greg Dortch caught one of his two targets for 7 yards. No. 2 tight end Elijah Higgins scored on one of his two targets. Dortch’s routes fell under the 50% threshold, so he can be dropped.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals used multiple tight ends on the field on over half of their plays (30 of 57, 52.6%) and were significantly more efficient when using multiple tight ends.
The Cardinals averaged 8.2 yards per play and a 53.3% success rate with multiple tight ends, compared to 4.1 yards per play and a 25.9% success rate with just one tight end. The 49ers matched base or heavy personnel on all but one play when the Cardinals used multiple tight ends and matched nickel on all but one play when the Cardinals had just one tight end on the field.
Los Angeles Rams
Add Blake Corum | Stock Down Cooper Kupp
The Los Angeles Rams had a mid offensive performance in their Week 17 matchup, with Matthew Stafford leading the offense. Stafford completed 17 of 32 passes for 189 yards but did not throw a touchdown. Despite no touchdowns in the passing game, Stafford’s ability to distribute the ball efficiently helped the Rams sustain drives. His passer rating ended at 71.0.
In the rushing game, Kyren Williams led the backfield with 56 yards on 13 carries, averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry, and scoring 1 rushing touchdown. Stafford added 16 yards on 6 attempts, though his rushing average was lower at 2.7 yards per carry. Blake Corum struggled, recording -4 yards on 3 carries.
The receiving corps was highlighted by Puka Nacua, who was the primary target, catching 10 passes for 129 yards. Nacua accounted for 50% of the Target share and contributed 42% of the air yards, averaging 5.2 air yards per reception. The second-year WR was targeted on 47% of his routes run.
Nobody else had more than three targets.
Cooper Kupp made an impact, catching 1 pass for 29 yards on just three targets, while Kyren Williams added 16 yards on three receptions (three targets).
In the last five games, Kupp has had more than three catches once. 12 catches for 161 yards and just 1 TD over that span.
Tyler Higbee had 9 yards on two receptions, and Jordan Whittington caught one pass for 6 yards. Demarcus Robinson, despite being targeted 2 times, failed to record any receptions.
Davis Allen, Colby Parkinson, and Blake Corum all saw limited involvement, with Parkinson and Allen being targeted once each but not registering any receptions.
The Rams will finish the season against the Seahawks in a rematch of Week 9. The Rams have little to play for in Week 18 because they will either be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. A win versus Seattle or a Tampa Bay loss secures the No. 3 (Buccaneers play earlier in Week 18).
Keep in mind that last season, the Rams started backup quarterback Carson Wentz in Week 18, even with playoff seeding in play. The health of their key offensive playmakers is priority number one.
Here is that game’s recap.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford went 25-for-44, accumulating 298 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He completed 56.8% of his passes, ending with a passer rating of 83.3 and an average of 6.8 yards per attempt.
On the ground, Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 69 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with his longest run of the day being 9 yards. Stafford had one rush attempt that netted zero yards, while Blake Corum lost a yard on his only carry.
Off extended rest, Sean McVay had no chill with Kyren. 99% snap share. The Rams head coach can’t help himself.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have the No. 1 most favorable schedule for RBs. At this point, Williams is probably a better buy than anything else. It might be the best time to buy NOW after he didn’t score a TD for the first time in his last 10 games.
In the receiving game, Cooper Kupp was Stafford’s top target, catching 11 of his 14 targets for 104 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per reception with a long of 23 yards and an impressive 50 yards after the catch. 78 air yards, 18.40% air yards share, 33.33% Target share.
Like I said last week, I still think Nacua is the No. 1 WR in this offense. Would sell high on Kupp after he commanded 14 targets and 100-plus yards in a game that Nacua played half of.
Would also “buy-low” on Nacua after the knee scare from later in the week and the poor performance because of the ejection.
Demarcus Robinson was a key contributor as well, catching six of his season-high nine targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns, including a long catch of 39 yards. He had one red-zone TD catch–140 air yards, 33.02% air yards share, 21.43% Target share. He’s got 4 TDs in the last two games since the Rams best two WRs returned. It seems a tad bit unsustainable, but he has the full-time role in this offense. You could do much worse.
In theory, he’s the perfect “sell-high,” but I’m not sure you’ll get anything worth his production in the last two weeks, which has represented two top-10 overall WR finishes. Maybe it’s just a reminder that when in doubt, your best chances of trotting out a weekly WR1 are best attached to Stafford.
Tyler Johnson also had a solid performance, catching 3 of his five targets for 38 yards, with a long reception of 24 yards and 17 yards after the catch. Johnson ran a route on 43.18% of dropbacks.
Kyren Williams contributed as a receiver, making one catch for 26 yards, showing his versatility.
Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua each made single catches, with Atwell gaining 16 yards and Nacua adding 11 yards (70 air yards, 16.51% air yards share, 9.52% Target share).
Nacua was ejected before the end of the first half. Nacua ran a route on 41% of dropbacks.
Atwell boasted 73 air yards, 17.22% air yards share, 7.14% Target share. Atwell ran a route on just 25% of dropbacks.
Tight ends Davis Allen and Hunter Long added short receptions of 5 and 4 yards, respectively. Allen had three red zone targets. Allen ran a route on 43% of dropbacks, more than Colby Parkinson‘s 41%. Allen also played the majority of TE snaps at 55% to Parkinson’s 42%.
Tennessee Titans
Stock Up Chig Okonkwo & Calvin Ridley | Buy Tony Pollard | Stock Down Tyjae Spears
The Tennessee Titans relied on their rushing game and efficient passing to keep their offense moving in their Week 17 matchup. Mason Rudolph, the starting quarterback, completed 19 of 31 passes for 193 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception. He finished with a passer rating of 76.4, distributing the ball well across several players in the passing game.
In the rushing game, Tyjae Spears was the workhorse, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries, averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry. However, he left the game with an injury, and it sounds unlikely that he will go in Week 18. Tony Pollard might be back in the bell cow chair after missing Week 17.
Pollard’s contract is filled with contract incentives that he will be itching to hit for what has been a lost season in his first season with the Titans.
He is 83 rushing yards away from 1,100 ($250K bonus) and two TDs away from another $200K.
Interesting that Spears had scored four TDs in the last two games that Pollard was active.
Rudolph contributed with 23 yards on five attempts, while Julius Chestnut had 17 yards on three carries, showing strong efficiency with a 5.7-yard average. Tight end Chig Okonkwo added 17 yards on one carry, while Calvin Ridley added 7 yards on one attempt.
The receiving corps saw a balanced effort. Ridley commanded six targets (20% Target share and 86 air yards), recording five catches for 84 yards, but failed to find the end zone. He contributed 50% of the air yards share and 19% of the Target share. Okonkwo, with nine targets, caught five passes for 42 yards. He contributed 22% of the Target share and saw one red-zone target. He remained Rudolph’s top target, as he has been for the last three weeks. As a result, he has gone over his receiving yards prop in each of the last three games.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had three receptions for 37 yards on six targets. Tyler Boyd added 14 yards on two catches, and Spears was also involved in the passing game, catching three passes for 8 yards on four targets.
Nick Vannett caught one pass for 8 yards and scored a touchdown. Chestnut and Josh Whyle were limited to minimal roles, with no receptions recorded.
The Titans’ defense has allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last six of seven games played.
They will face the Houston Texans in Week 18, and they are favored because Houston has nothing to play for.
Here’s what happened in the first matchup between these AFC South teams when they first played back in Week 12. Note that Houston won this game outright 32-27 at home.
Will Levis had a strong outing, completing 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He averaged an impressive 11.6 yards per attempt, finishing with a 123.3 passer rating.
Tyler Boyd attempted one pass, which fell incomplete.
Tony Pollard dominated the ground game with 24 carries for 119 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 5 yards per carry with a long run of 27 yards.
Without Tyjae Spears, Pollard played 94% of the snaps. Also, his toughest stretch of games seems to be over, slating him nicely for the next couple of weeks.
Julius Chestnut had one carry for three yards on just two snaps.
Pollard contributed in the passing game as well, catching three of five targets for 10 yards, boasting a 20% Target share. Chestnut added a two-yard reception on his lone target.
Will Levis chipped in 10 yards on eight rushing attempts, averaging 1.3 yards per carry.
Calvin Ridley led the receiving corps with five receptions on six targets for 93 yards, averaging 18.6 yards per catch. His longest reception was a spectacular 63-yard play. He also had a red-zone target, but he did not score.
Chigoziem Okonkwo turned his lone target into a 70-yard touchdown, showcasing his explosiveness after the catch. This is why we always bet the under on Okonkwo’s receptions props, never his receiving yards.
Tyler Boyd was reliable, catching all six of his targets for 55 yards with an average of 9.2 yards per reception and a long of 19 yards. It was a surprisingly efficient game from the Titans’ slot WR, as he led the team with a 24% Target share.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine made two catches on five targets for 48 yards and a touchdown, averaging 24 yards per reception with a long of 38 yards. This man just can’t stop scoring touchdowns. He had 116 air yards as well.
Nick Vannett was targeted once but did not record a catch.
Will Levis continues to show promise, effectively spreading the ball to key playmakers and capitalizing on deep shots. And the schedule is divine for a strong finish.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stock Up Brian Thomas Jr. | Stock Down Tank Bigsby & Brenton Strange
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a solid performance on offense, with Mac Jones leading the charge. Jones completed 15 of 22 passes for 174 yards, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. His passer rating of 122.2 helped guide the offense downfield effectively, with key plays from the running game and passing attack.
Jones has passed for 220-plus yards in four of his last five games. I like the MORE THAN on Prizepicks this week at 207.5 passing yards. This Colts defense is terrible.
In the rushing game, Travis Etienne led the way with 49 yards on 15 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Tank Bigsby added 33 yards on 11 attempts, and Jones contributed 22 yards on six carries.
Both RBs saw a red-zone carry but neither find the end zone. ETN led the backfield with nine carries in the first half to Bigby’s five. He totaled seven yards.
Brian Thomas Jr. added 18 yards on one carry, showing an impressive 18.0 yards per attempt.
Thomas led the receiving game, catching seven passes for 91 yards and one touchdown, including a 31-yard long reception. BTJ has seven targets in the first half. No other player had more than one target.
Thomas Jr. recorded his eighth game with 60-plus receiving yards and at least one receiving touchdown (Next Gen Stats), tying the record held by Randy Moss.
He accounted for 48% of the Target share with 10 targets.
In the last six games…BTJ has averaged over 22 PPR points, a 33% Target share, a 45% air yards share, and 95-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.
Parker Washington was another key contributor, hauling in 3 receptions for 31 yards and one touchdown on his three targets.
Etienne added 26 yards on one catch (two targets), and D’Ernest Johnson caught two passes for 11 yards (2 targets).
Tim Jones and Devin Duvernay each caught one pass, totaling 4 and 11 yards, respectively. Brenton Strange and Bigsby were not involved in the passing game. Each saw one target but had zero catches.
Strange’s role was dramatically reduced from two weeks ago when he had a massive target game. At least this week he played 72% of the snaps.
Jacksonville has scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
Colts-Jags is a rematch from Week 5. Here’s what happened as recapped from the Week 6 fantasy forecast:
The Jacksonville Jaguars, led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, put up an impressive offensive performance. Lawrence completed 28 of 34 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a completion percentage of 82.4% and averaged 10.9 yards per attempt, giving him a quarterback rating of 119.5.
In the ground game, Tank Bigsby carried the load with 13 rushes for 101 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, including a long run of 65 yards with two touchdowns. Bigsby carried the ball three times in the red zone, scoring one touchdown.
Travis Etienne Jr. was less involved, rushing just six times for 17 yards, with a long run of four yards. Lawrence also chipped in with two rushes for 4 yards.
The snaps were 40% for Bigsby and 38% for Etienne-season-high and season-low, respectively. In the first-half split, there were four carries each for minimal yardage.
Through the air, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was the standout performer, catching five of eight targets for 122 yards and one touchdown, averaging 24.4 yards per reception with a long of 85 yards and 70 yards after the catch. Certified stud. Always a buy.
Christian Kirk added four receptions on four targets (12% Target share) for 88 yards, including a long reception of 61 yards. But his routes fell to a season-low (68%). Kirk’s no longer the target hog in this offense, and it won’t improve if and when Engram returns.
Travis Etienne Jr. was also involved in the passing game, catching six of seven targets (21% Target share) for 43 yards, averaging 7.2 yards per reception, including 59 yards after the catch. Gabe Davis contributed three catches on four targets for 38 yards, including a long catch of 21 yards.
Bigsby added on a catch for 28 yards on a screenplay.
We are starting to see more and more of this RB committee form in Jacksonville, with Bigsby as the lead rusher and Etienne as the main pass-catcher. ETN ran the most routes on the offense, while D’Ernest Johson (22% snap share) ran more routes than Bigsby. Johnson had three targets of his own.
On the surface, viewing this situation as buying Tank Bigsby (as Chris Welsh correctly called on the podcast last week) and selling Travis Etienne is simple.
And although I agree about still wanting Bigsby, Etienne isn’t going entirely away. He’s got the pass-catching role in this offense. And although Bigsby has flashed with the big runs, Etienne has been more than serviceable. Ninth overall in rushing success rate (56.6%). This isn’t Bigsby is great, Etienne sucks conversation. It’s Bigsby great. Buy Bigsby and hold (or even buy low) Etienne.
It was reported after the Jaguars game that Etienne’s lack of snaps resulted from a shoulder injury.
Tight end Brenton Strange caught all four of his targets for 24 yards and one touchdown. He resumed his full-time role with Evan Engram, still ailing from his hamstring injury.
New York Jets
Stock Down Breece Hall & Aaron Rodgers
The New York Jets were led by a two-quarterback system in their Week 17 matchup. Aaron Rodgers completed 12 of 18 passes for 112 yards but struggled with two interceptions and no touchdowns, posting a passer rating of 44.0. He is still one passing TD away from his 500th TD. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out which WR he wants to catch.
Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor had a much stronger performance, completing 11 of 14 passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with an impressive passer rating of 131.0.
In the rushing game, Breece Hall led the team with 45 yards on 10 carries (4.5 yards per carry). Isiah Davis added 35 yards on three carries (11.7 yards per carry), showing his efficiency on the ground.
Hall finished with fewer than a 50% snap share, but he didn’t play much on the final drive into the fourth quarter.
Braelon Allen gained 26 yards on six attempts (4.3 yards per carry), and Tyrod Taylor added 6 yards on two carries.
Allen (four) and Hall (six) split carries in the first half. But Hall was way more efficient, averaging over 6.5 yards per carry.
The receiving game was highlighted by Garrett Wilson, who caught seven passes on eight targets (26% Target share) for 66 yards and one touchdown, including a long of 28 yards. Note that Wilson caught his TD from Taylor and not Rodgers (who would never).
Tyler Conklin followed closely, hauling in 8 passes for 57 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 20 yards. Conklin tied for the team lead with eight targets (26%), the majority of which came with Taylor as the Jets passer.
Davante Adams caught five passes for 47 yards but was held without a touchdown. Adams drew eight targets and was targeted at a 30% clip – per usual. But he was battling injuries throughout the game, even after Rodgers took himself out of the game.
Allen Lazard caught one pass for 9 yards, while Breece Hall, Isiah Davis, and Kenny Yeboah each caught one pass, with Hall and Davis both gaining 8 yards.
The Jets host the Dolphins in Week 18, a rematch from a matchup that happened a few weeks ago. A recap as provided by the Week 15 fantasy forecast:
Aaron Rodgers led the New York Jets to a commanding offensive display, completing 27 of 39 passes for 339 yards and a touchdown against a depleted Miami Dolphins secondary.
Garrett Wilson dominated with 11 targets, catching seven passes for 114 yards (16.3 yards per catch) and 56 yards after the catch, showcasing his ability to create plays. He was targeted twice in the red zone and caught one with no touchdowns.
Davante Adams was equally impressive, reeling in 9 of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown, including a long reception of 34 yards. He was targeted twice in the red zone and caught one for a touchdown. He did get banged up late in the game.
Adams and Wilson accounted for 56% of the targets, emphasizing their integral roles in the passing game.
And finally, we have arrived at the playoffs with the Jets’ passing game in a great spot.
Jaguars and Rams over the next two games. Buy the passing game.
Gang Green will play @ JAC, vs LAR and @ BUF to finish the fantasy football season.
The Jets have the No. 4 schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season
In the backfield, rookie running back Isaiah Davis was efficient, rushing 10 times for 40 yards (4.0 YPC) and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 27 yards on six targets.
Braelon Allen added 11 carries for 43 yards and contributed 38 yards on four receptions from 5 targets.
Davis had two rush attempts, one rushing touchdown in the red zone, one reception on two red zone targets, and no receiving touchdowns. Allen had two red zone rushing attempts but failed to score.
In the first half, the carries were a split 5 to 4 in favor of Allen. The final snaps were 54% for Allen and 53% for Davis. A full 50/50 split without Breece Hall active.
I still slightly prefer Allen if Hall misses another week, but it will be a crowded mess for another week, even in a positive matchup against the Jaguars. I will say that Davis might be the better option in full PPR formats, given his increased usage the last two weeks as a receiver out of the backfield (32% target rate per route run in Week 14).
Tyler Conklin chipped in at tight end with 33 yards on three receptions, while Allen Lazard had a single catch for 18 yards. Conklin was targeted once in the red zone but had no receptions or touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills
Add Keon Coleman | Buy Khail Shakir | Stock Up Amari Cooper | Stock Down Dalton Kincaid
The Buffalo Bills offense was led by quarterback Josh Allen, who completed 16 of 27 passes for 182 yards, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 104.2. Mitch Trubisky also made a brief appearance, completing his only pass attempt for 69 yards and one touchdown, posting a perfect passer rating of 158.3.
In the rushing game, James Cook was the primary back, rushing for 53 yards on 15 carries (3.5 yards per carry) and scoring one touchdown.
Josh Allen added 17 yards on five carries, including a rushing touchdown. Ty Johnson contributed 16 yards on four carries (4.0 yards per carry), while Reggie Gilliam and Mitch Trubisky combined for three more yards on four carries.
The receiving game was led by Tyrell Shavers, who caught one pass for 69 yards and one touchdown, including a long reception of 69 yards.
Amari Cooper followed with three catches for 56 yards and one beautiful touchdown grab on three targets, while Mack Hollins added 33 yards on two catches. Cooper’s usage remained poor as he operated as the fourth WR.
Keon Coleman had three catches for 27 yards and one touchdown (two red-zone targets) while leading the WRs in routes run (90% snap share) and targets (seven, 27% Target share). The rookie WR also commanded 32% of the air yards (69).
Khalil Shakir contributed 25 yards on three receptions. Shakir led the way with six targets in the first half and was hyper-targeted on 33% of his routes run.
The Bills slot WR’s production has fallen off the last few games, where Buffalo has played in weird game scripts. Even so, Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in nine of 15 games this season.
Dalton Kincaid caught two passes for 24 yards on three targets (one red-zone target), while Ty Johnson caught one pass for 9 yards. Dawson Knox, Reggie Davis, and Quinton Morris each caught one pass, with Knox and Davis each gaining 4 yards.
Kincaid (44%) was out-snapped by Knox (49%), although the former ran more routes.
Buffalo (most likely their backups led by Mitchell Trubisky with the No.2 seed locked-in) will face the Patriots in Week 18. The Bills are STILL road favorites.
A rematch of a Week 16 game where the following happened:
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills relied heavily on their running game, with James Cook leading the charge. Cook carried the ball 11 times for 100 yards, averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per carry, including a long run of 46 yards. Quarterback Josh Allen contributed to the rushing efforts with six carries for 30 yards (5.0 yards per carry), while Ty Johnson and Ray Davis added 30 and 12 rushing yards, respectively.
Johnson out-snapped Cook as they preferred the former in more pass-catching situations.
Passing-wise, Allen was 16 of 29 for 154 yards and one touchdown, though he did throw one interception. His passing rating for the game was 67.3. He was dealing with a hand injury issue that influenced his accuracy passing.
James Cook was also a significant factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 26 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills’ wide receiver corps also played a big role in their offensive production.
Mack Hollins caught two passes for 25 yards on three targets, and Khalil Shakir made two catches for 22 yards on six targets. Shakir had some very uncharacteristic drops because he totaled 104 air yards (33%) in what could have been a much more productive game. Expect him to bounce back big versus the Jets’ slot-funnel defense in Week 17.
Tight end Dawson Knox caught two passes for 22 yards as well.
Other contributions came from Keon Coleman, who grabbed a 17-yard reception on 59 air yards, Ray Davis, who caught a pass for 17 yards, and Dalton Kincaid, who registered four catches for 15 yards on seven targets. Kincaid led the team with five first-half targets and ended with a 26% Target share. He also had a red-zone target but didn’t score.
For the second straight game, the Bills tight end was heavily involved when he was on the field. He only played 34% of the snaps (20). His target rate was 54%, but he only ran 13 routes.
Amari Cooper had two targets and one catch for 10 yards. He remained the WR4 in total snaps played behind Shakir, Hollins, and Coleman.
Las Vegas Raiders
Stock Up Brock Bowers & Jakobi Meyers | Hold Alexander Mattison | Add Ameer Abdullah
The Las Vegas Raiders relied on a strong running game led by Ameer Abdullah, who rushed 20 times for 115 yards (5.8 yards per carry) but did not find the end zone (although he scored and the play was overturned upon review). Abdullah led the backfield with a 62% snap share and the first half with 11 carries for 71 yards.
Alexander Mattison added 32 yards on 10 carries (3.2 yards per carry), while Chris Collier contributed 6 yards on three attempts. Mattison played 31% of the snaps.
Abdullah also absorbed all the red-zone work, with six red-zone touches.
However, Abdullah RB1 szn might have been short-lived as he got hurt in the fourth quarter.
Tre Tucker had a solid run with 5 yards on one carry. The only negative rushing performance came from quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who ran 3 times for -1 yards. Brock Bowers also had negative rushing yards, rushing 1 time for -1 yards.
In the passing game, Aidan O’Connell went 20-for-35, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 97.6. He played an efficient role in managing the offense and spreading the ball around.
The receiving game saw Bowers lead the team in targets, receptions, and yards, with seven targets, seven catches, and 77 yards.
Jakobi Meyers also made a significant impact, catching five passes for 61 yards and one touchdown, including a long reception of 29 yards. Meyers also saw 110 air yards to go with his team-leading 26% Target share.
Abdullah caught three passes for 32 yards, while Terrace Marshall caught one pass for 28 yards.
As we saw last week, AOC continued to target his RBs at a very high rate.
Tre Tucker added two catches for 24 yards and a touchdown, with a long reception of 18 yards despite seeing eight targets. He also saw 138 air yards. Consider it a miracle that the under on his 2.5 receptions prop cashed. Tucker is under 2.5 receptions in five straight games and in seven of his last nine.
Michael Mayer also contributed one catch for 14 yards, while Mattison had one catch for 6 yards.
The Raiders will face the Chargers in Week 18, and they might not have much to play for. Meanwhile, LV might want to finish the season on a high note with the potential for a three-game win streak.
This is a rematch from Week 1. Here’s the recap of that game from the Week 2 fantasy forecast FWIW:
Gardner Minshew completed 25 of 33 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 95.1.
In the running game, Zamir White led the Raiders with 44 yards on 13 carries, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with a long run of 12 yards. He only played 38 percent of the snaps.
Alexander Mattison added 19 yards on five carries (60% snap share), while Minshew scrambled for five yards on three attempts. Jakobi Meyers also contributed with a 3-yard rush.
In the passing game, Meyers was efficient, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards (9% Target share), including 21 yards after the catch (YAC). He ran a ton of routes (88%) but was not heavily targeted on a per-route basis.
Davante Adams was the top target, catching five of his six targets for 59 yards, accounting for 18 percent of the team’s passing attempts.
Rookie tight end Brock Bowers had a strong game, catching six of his eight targets for 58 yards, leading the team with a 21 percent Target share and 31 percent target rate. Elite level usage for the rookie tight end, who also ran a route on 78 percent of the dropbacks.
Alexander Mattison was also active in the passing game, catching 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards and a score, with a remarkable 50 YAC (18% Target share). He played a lot as the primary receiving back, running a route on 60 percent of the dropbacks. Note that rookie RB Dylan Laube was inactive, which gave Mattison a clear path to work on third downs.
Tre Tucker made an impact as well, catching 2 of 3 passes for 22 yards. He played a ton for a WR3, running a route on 83 percent of the dropbacks.
Tight end Michael Mayer caught 2 of 3 targets for 3 yards (40% route participation), while Zamir White contributed 2 yards on 2 catches from 2 targets. He only ran a route on 25% of dropbacks. Typical two-down grinder back that suffered in a negative game script.
New Orleans Saints
Stock Down Kendre Miller | Stock Up Juwan Johnson & Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The New Orleans Saints were led by quarterback Spencer Rattler, who threw for 218 yards on 20 completions out of 36 attempts. Rattler also threw one touchdown but had two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 59.7. He also contributed on the ground with 46 rushing yards on three attempts (15.3 yards per carry) and a long of 28 yards.
In the rushing game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the running backs with 20 yards on five carries (4.0 yards per carry), while Jamaal Williams had 12 yards on two carries (6.0 yards per carry).
Kendre Miller had just 3 yards on three attempts (1.0 yards per carry) as he got hurt (again) and left the game. CEH led the Saints in snaps at 43% compared to Williams’ 42%. He also had three carries in the first half before Willaims ever touched the ball (although his first carry in the first half was wiped away on a penalty).
The receiving game was dominated by Juwan Johnson, who led the team with 12 targets, catching six passes for 66 yards. Johnson also tied for the team-high in total routes run to go with his 34% Target share and 36% air yards share (91 air yards).
Foster Moreau followed with 47 yards and one touchdown on three receptions from 5 targets, including a long of 30 yards.
Consider tight ends in a future matchup versus the Raiders.
Dante Pettis contributed with 27 yards on three catches, while Kevin Austin caught one pass for 23 yards. Pettis was hyper-targeted on 33% of his routes run.
Cedrick Wilson and Kendre Miller each had three receptions, with Miller adding 16 yards.
Jamaal Williams caught one pass for 12 yards, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had two catches for 10 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Prentice were both targeted but did not record a catch.
MVS led the Saints in snaps but he did get hurt toward the end of the game. Chris Olave might return in Week 18.
The final matchup remaining for the Saints is the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is what happened in the last matchup between these two NFC South teams:
In the Week 6 matchup, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler led the New Orleans Saints’ offense, who completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. Rattler had a 55% completion rate and a passer rating of 60.7.
Alvin Kamara carried the ball 13 times, gaining 40 yards on the ground, averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a touchdown. Rattler himself added 27 rushing yards on four attempts, including a long run of 16 yards. Kamara had two red zone rushing attempts for seven yards, scoring one rushing touchdown. He was also targeted once but did not score a receiving touchdown.
Jamaal Williams had two rushes for 7 yards.
Snaps: Alvin Kamara: 74%, Jordan Mims: 23%, Jamaal Williams: 4%
It’s pretty clear that the Saints aren’t sold on either Mims or Williams as true complements to take the workload off Kamara. The veteran running back leads the NFL in touches (132).
Kendre Miller is expected to make his season debut in Week 7. Add him. I loved his prospects before he got hurt during the preseason. He won’t eat into Kamara’s work as a receiver, but he can work as a ball carrier on early downs. If somebody will give you Weeks 1-2 Kamara, take it. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been the same with the injuries across the OL.
Through the air, tight end Foster Moreau led the receiving corps, catching both his targets for 54 yards, including a long catch of 27 yards. Juwan Johnson also had a solid showing, catching three passes on three targets (7.5% Target share) for 48 yards, including a 27-yard reception. Johnson ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Given the injury to Shaheed, Johnson will take on a large share of the targets in Week 7.
Wide receivers Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson Jr. each recorded 45 and 28 receiving yards, respectively, with Means catching five balls and one TD on eight targets (21% Target share).
Means was targeted once in the red zone and converted his only opportunity into a touchdown. It was clear that the rookie had a built-in rapport with his rookie quarterback, a trend I expect to continue in the coming weeks. Means ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks.
Kamara was involved in the passing game as well, catching five of his eight targets (20% Target share) for 24 yards, while Jordan Mims had two receptions for 13 yards, and Shaheed managed just one reception for 11 yards on his seven targets (17.5% Target share). He did score a TD on a punt return. Shaheed had 151 air yards, 49% air yard share.
Chris Olave left the game early after fumbling and sustaining a concussion. Without Olave, at least for Week 7, Shaheed has to be in all lineups if he is healthy. However, that might not be the case, given he is reportedly dealing with a concerning knee injury.
It was a wacky game between the Saints-Buccaneers. Tampa jumped out 17-0. Then they allowed 20 unanswered points with interceptions, penalties, and special teams miscues. Then it was all Buccaneers after that, with a final score of 51-27.
Note that on the final drive in garbage time, Mims had three targets, and Wilson had two.
Carolina Panthers
Add Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker | Stock Up Adam Thielen
The Carolina Panthers were led by quarterback Bryce Young in their Week 17 matchup. Young completed 15 of 28 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 100.7. He also showed mobility on the ground, rushing for 8 yards on two attempts.
In the rushing game, Raheem Blackshear was the primary ball carrier, rushing for 20 yards on eight attempts (2.5 yards per carry). Mike Boone added 11 yards on two carries, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. Blackshear played the majority of Panthers snaps (77%) after Chuba Hubbard was placed on IR.
Young contributed with 8 yards on two rushes, while Velus Jones was limited to 0 yards on one attempt.
The receiving game was paced by Adam Thielen, who caught five passes on six targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 40 yards. Thielen accounted for 27% of the Target share and was instrumental in the team’s scoring effort. Adam Thielen has at least 4.5 catches in five straight games.
Jalen Coker added 35 yards on two receptions, while Xavier Legette caught five passes on nine targets for 28 yards. Legette was targeted on 38% of his routes run to go with his 41% Target share and 46% air yards share (139 air yards).
David Moore contributed 17 yards on one reception, while Dan Chisena added 8 yards on one catch.
Ja’Tavion Sanders caught one pass for 5 yards. Boone was targeted twice but did not record any receptions. Sanders out-snapped Tommy Tremble.
The Panthers-Falcons is a rematch of Week 6, where Atlanta won 38-20 on the road. Here’s the breakdown from the Week 7 forecast:
The Carolina Panthers saw solid production from their ground game, with running back Chuba Hubbard leading the charge. Hubbard carried the ball 18 times for 92 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 19 yards. Hubbard carried the ball three times in the red zone for three yards but did not score. He was targeted twice without a receiving touchdown.
Snaps: Chuba Hubbard: 82%, Miles Sanders: 23%
I know some are optimistic about Jonathon Brooks seeing a sizeable workload down the stretch, but Hubbard has been too good for him to lose his job without an injury. He’s fourth in yards from scrimmage and ninth in touches. That being said, Brooks is going to come back sooner rather than later after his 21-day practice window was opened. He’s the future for the Panthers at running back, not Hubbard, who is on an expiring deal at the end of the season. The clock is potentially ticking on Hubbard’s role as a three-down workhorse, especially when it matters most in the fantasy football playoffs. If you need wins now, Hubbard is a hold. But if you are playing the long-term game, cashing out on Hubbard before Brooks returns seems like the sharp move. Or at least make sure you also have Brooks on your Hubbard rosters.
Quarterback Andy Dalton added 21 rushing yards on three carries, including a 7-yard scramble, while Miles Sanders struggled on the ground with just 1 yard on three carries.
In the passing game, Dalton completed 26 of 38 attempts for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. His completion rate was 68.4%, and he finished with a passer rating of 78.9.
Wide receiver Diontae Johnson led the Panthers’ receiving corps with six receptions on ten targets, totaling 78 yards, including a 27% Target share and a long reception of 19 yards with one touchdown. Johnson had one red zone target and made the catch for a touchdown. DJ had 93 air yards, 37% air yard share.
Per Next Gen Stats, Johnson was frequently matched up against cornerback A.J. Terrell, hauling in all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown across 22 matchups against him, despite Terrell forcing a tight window on all three targets (0.7 yards of average target separation).
Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders had a productive game, catching five of his seven targets (19% Target share) for 49 yards and a touchdown, including a 28-yard catch. Sanders was targeted once in the red zone but did not make a catch. The rookie ran a route on 68% of the dropbacks as the TE1 over Ian Thomas (returned from injury).
Jalen Coker was efficient, hauling in all three of his targets for 30 yards. He usurped Jonathan Mingo as the WR3 after a strong Week 5 outing. Coker ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks.
Xavier Legette contributed with three catches for 23 yards and a score on four targets, while David Moore added two receptions for 17 yards on two targets. Legette was targeted once in the red zone, making the catch and scoring a touchdown. Legette ran a route on 77.5% of the dropbacks, operating as the No. 2 WR.
Miles Sanders caught one pass for 12 yards, and Chuba Hubbard was active in the passing game as well, catching five of his six targets for 11 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stock Down Rachaad White | Stock Up Bucky Irving & Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a dominant offensive performance in their Week 17 game, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield completed 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with a stellar passer rating of 153.0. His precise and efficient passing game was key to the Buccaneers’ offensive success, distributing the ball well to multiple targets.
In the rushing game, Bucky Irving was the standout player, rushing for 113 yards on 20 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Irving followed with four catches on four targets for 77 yards, though he did not score a touchdown.
The rookie RB played 55% of the snaps.
Sean Tucker also contributed with 39 yards on eight carries (4.9 yards per carry), while Rachaad White added 30 yards on six carries. White played 36% of the snaps, while Tucker played 19%.
A clear hierarchy of the Bucs backfield, with Irving sitting firmly on top. At least White still saw two red-zone carries (same as Bucky).
Kameron Johnson rushed for 11 yards on one carry, Jalen McMillan had 9 yards on one attempt, and Mayfield contributed 2 yards on one carry.
The receiving corps was led by Mike Evans, who caught eight passes on nine targets (28% Target share) for 97 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 34 yards and 95 air yards.
He needs just 85 yards in Week 18 to record his 11th-straight 1,000-yard season. Give me those OVERS. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in six straight games.
The opening line on Prizepicks is 91.5 yards. MORE THAN.
No more Marshon Lattimore or hamstring injury (fingers crossed) to stop Evans this time around from going off versus the Saints.
And look to bet his TDs even at some heavier juice. His contract has an escalator that will increase his base salary by $3M next year if he hits 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. He currently had 65 catches for 915 yards and 11 TDs.
Devin Culp caught three passes on four targets (two red-zone targets) for 52 yards. The No. 3 tight end popped when running routes, earning a target at a 36% clip.
McMillan had a strong game with five catches on five targets (three red-zone targets), totaling 51 yards and two touchdowns.
Regardless, it’s been four straight strong games for McMillan. 19% Target share, 6 TDs, and 60 receiving yards per game. 19 catches for 242 yards and 6 TDS. Four straight overs with at least 51 receiving yards.
Payne Durham caught two passes on three targets for 36 yards and one red-zone touchdown, including a long of 31 yards. Durham resumed roles as TE1 for TB, with Cade Otton out another week.
Ryan Miller added two catches on four targets for 26 yards. He played the third most WR snaps with Sterling Shepard out.
Rakim Jarrett had one reception on one target for 11 yards, while Tucker caught 1 pass on one target for 5 yards. White also contributed with 4 yards on one target.
The final matchup remaining for Tampa Bay is the lowly Saints.
Here is the recap of that matchup from the Week 7 Fantasy Forecast:
In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense was led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who completed 24 of 36 passes for 325 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a 66.7% completion rate and a 97.6 passer rating.
Running back Sean Tucker stole the show on the ground, rushing 14 times for 136 yards, averaging an impressive 9.7 yards per carry, including a long run of 36 yards with a touchdown. He also contributed in the passing game, catching three of his three targets (8.3% Target share) for 56 yards, including a receiving touchdown. Although he only had one carry in the first half.
Tucker rushed twice for 13 yards in the red zone and scored one rushing touchdown without any targets.
Bucky Irving also had a strong game in the backfield with 14 carries for 81 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and added two catches on two targets for 18 yards. Irving rushed four times in the red zone, gaining 24 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown without any red zone targets.
Snaps: Bucky Irving: 64%, Sean Tucker: 38%.
Tucker did a lot of damage in the second half, but it’s not as if he wasn’t involved at all in the offensive game plan (used as a receiver). We don’t know what this backfield will look like if Rachaad White returns, but it could be a three-headed monster down the year. Irving’s price is at its peak right now before a brutal matchup against the Ravens. Todd Bowles said post-game that Tucker has earned the right for more opportunities. In fact, Bowles used the word “three-headed monster” regarding his backfield. Gross.
Wide receiver Sterling Shepard chipped in with four rushes for 31 yards and caught three of his four targets for 23 yards. Shepard ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks as the WR2. He has established himself as WR3 based on the injuries of Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer.
Chris Godwin was the star of the receiving corps, catching 11 of his 13 targets (36.1% Target share) for 125 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 55 yards. Rookie Rakim Miller also made an impact, hauling in one catch for 39 yards on his only target.
Mike Evans was targeted six times, catching two passes for 34 yards, with a long of 17 yards, while tight end Cade Otton added two catches on six targets for 15 yards and one touchdown. Otton had two red zone targets, securing one and finding the end zone for a touchdown.
Evans left the game briefly but returned. He recorded one target in the second half. Evans had 87 air yards, 40% air yard share. Buy low. He only ran a route on 62.5% of the dropbacks, playing a season-low in snaps. The Buccaneers are going to need Evans over the next month.
Indianapolis Colts
Stock Up Jonathan Taylor & Michael Pittman Jr.
The Indianapolis Colts were led by quarterback Joe Flacco in their Week 17 matchup. Flacco completed 26 of 38 passes for 330 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 90.9. His performance was key in moving the ball through the air, especially with the help of strong contributions from the receiving corps.
According to Next Gen Stats, Flacco completed 26-of-38 passes for 330 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions against the Giants, with over half his passing yards (166) and both touchdowns coming on passes over 10 air yards.
In the rushing game, Jonathan Taylor was the standout, rushing for 125 yards on 32 carries, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns. Joe Flacco added 1 yard on one rush but did not score.
The receiving game saw a strong performance from deep threat Alec Pierce, who caught six passes on nine targets for 122 yards and one touchdown (two red-zone targets), including a long reception of 49 yards. Pierce earned 191 air yards (51%) as the Giants continue to be dominated by deep passes.
Michael Pittman Jr. followed with 109 yards on nine receptions and one touchdown, with a long of 31 yards. Pittman led the Colts with a 27% Target share (10 targets). Flacco made the most of the Colts WRs’ final fantasy football game.
Kylen Granson added 34 yards on three receptions (two red-zone targets), while Josh Downs had 22 yards on three catches. A down game for Downs while the other two top Colts WRs feasted. He should rebound versus the Jaguars.
Adonai Mitchell contributed 22 yards on two catches. But yet again, he was hyper-targeted on 80% of his routes run. Five routes. Four targets. He has been doing this all season.
Taylor caught two passes for 11 yards, Trey Sermon caught one pass for 10 yards, and Mo Alie-Cox was targeted once but did not record a reception.
The Colts will play the Jaguars at home in Week 18. Coaches might be coaching for their jobs here, but I think we see some fireworks.
Colts-Jags is a rematch from Week 5. Here’s what happened as recapped from the Week 6 fantasy forecast:
The Indianapolis Colts offense was led by Joe Flacco, who completed 33 of 44 passes for 359 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, posting an impressive completion percentage of 75% and a quarterback rating of 121.8. Alec Pierce had a massive day in the receiving game, catching all three of his targets for 134 yards and one touchdown, with a long catch of 65 yards and 38 yards after the catch.
Josh Downs was heavily targeted with 12 looks (27% Target share), catching nine for 69 yards. Downs caught both of his two red zone targets but did not score. Downs continues to be hyper-targeted on a per route run basis from the slot. His 37% target rate per route run ranks second among all WRs this season. This has been true regardless of the Colts’ quarterback. Downs is a strong hold.
Adonai Mitchell was also involved, securing 4 of 7 targets for 38 yards, while Mo Alie-Cox caught 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards, averaging 18.5 yards per reception. The rookie’s high-end Target share is crazy, considering he only ran 11 routes … 64% target rate. He ran 31 fewer routes than Pittman, and they posted almost identical target shares. Yikes.
Alie-Cox had three red zone targets, hauling in one of those passes for a touchdown. However, it was still very much a TE committee that featured four different players. Do not chase any Colts tight end off the waiver wire.
Michael Pittman Jr. contributed with five catches for 37 yards on eight targets, including a 27-yard-long reception and an early TD reception. Pittman Jr. had two red zone targets, catching one and scoring a touchdown. I was on the fence as Pittman to buy/sell last week, but after this past week, he entered the must-sell conversation. Anthony Richardson will return at some point, and the targets are being spread out between these other Colts’ WRs.
In the rushing department, Trey Sermon led with 10 carries for 38 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a touchdown, while Tyler Goodson added 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Sermon recorded five red zone carries and two red zone targets. He had four carries inside the 5-yard line while seeing a 59% snap share. Goodson played 41% of the snaps without Jonathan Taylor. They split the routes.
Flacco also contributed with three rushes for 22 yards. Sermon also caught all six of his targets for 25 yards. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox scored on one of his four targets.
New York Giants
Stock Up Malik Nabers & Tyrone Tracy Jr.
The New York Giants were powered by a dynamic performance from quarterback Drew Lock in their Week 17 matchup. Lock completed 17 of 23 passes for 309 yards, throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with an impressive passer rating of 155.3.
In the rushing game, Tyrone Tracy was the top performer, rushing for 59 yards on 20 carries (3.0 yards per carry). Devin Singletary contributed 21 yards on five carries (4.2 yards per carry). Drew Lock also rushed 5 times but was limited to 0 yards. Tracy out-carried Singletary eight to four in the first half while playing 66% of the snaps. Tracy also had four red-zone carries but couldn’t find the end zone.
The receiving game saw a standout performance from Malik Nabers, who caught seven passes on eight targets (36% Target share, 40% air yards share) for 171 yards and two touchdowns, with a long reception of 59 yards.
Nabers has gone over 70.5 receiving yards thrice in his last eight games, with his three highest games at 79, 82, and 171 receiving yards, respectively.
He is also two receptions away from breaking Puka Nacua’s rookie WR record for receptions. The rookie receptions record is currently held by Brock Bowers (108), who has four more than Nabers with one week left in the season.
Wan’Dale Robinson added 71 yards on five receptions, scoring one touchdown with a long of 35 yards. Darius Slayton caught one pass for 32 yards and one touchdown. Slayton is 11 receptions away from a contract-based $100K bonus (50 receptions).
Tracy was involved in the receiving game, catching two passes for 14 yards. Chris Manhertz and Devin Singletary each caught one pass, with Manhertz gaining 12 yards and Singletary 9 yards.
The Giants continue to be a defense to pick on against the deep ball.
In Week 18, New York will play at Philadelphia (who may or may not be resting their key starters).
It is a rematch of Week 7. Here’s what happened per the Week 8 fantasy football forecast:
Daniel Jones completed 14 of 21 passes for 99 yards. He did not throw any touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a 77.3 passer rating and an average of 4.7 yards per attempt.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ defense recorded all eight of their sacks with a four-man pass rush, the most sacks, and the highest sack rate (21.6%) with a four-man pass rush in a game this season.
Drew Lock saw limited action, completing three of eight passes for 6 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, recording a 45.8 passer rating. Jones is expected to start in Week 8.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a long of 8 yards. He started over Singletary. Tracy Jr. ran a route on 60% of dropbacks to Singletary’s 15%. He also played a 67% snap share.
Devin Singletary contributed with five carries for 18 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per rush and breaking a 10-yard run.
Tracy is the Giants’ RB1. With his pass-catching ability and strong matchups upcoming against the Panthers/Commanders, trade for him.
Daniel Jones added five rushes for 20 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry with a 9-yard run. Drew Lock also had a 13-yard rush on his only attempt, and Eric Gray chipped in with one carry for 2 yards.
Malik Nabers was the top target with eight looks, catching four passes for 41 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per reception with a long of 14 yards and 12 yards after the catch (YAC) with 105 air yards, 54.69% air yards share, and 29.63% Target share. The good news is that Nabers seems healthy. As we suggested with Brian Thomas Jr. last week, buy these uber-talented rookie WRs after “down” games.
Wan’Dale Robinson was productive, catching six of his nine targets for 23 yards, but averaged just 3.8 yards per catch with 11 YAC with 16 air yards, 8.33% air yards share, and 33.33% Target share. Four of his targets came with Lock at QB in desperation time.
Darius Slayton caught one pass for 11 yards on three targets, with a long of 11 yards with 49 air yards, 25.52% air yards share, and 11.11% Target share.
The routes were Slayton (90%), Nabers (85%), and Robinson (75%).
Daniel Bellinger had one reception for 11 yards, while Tyrone Tracy Jr. caught all three of his targets for 9 yards.
Eric Gray made a 7-yard reception on his only target, while Devin Singletary caught one pass for 3 yards.
Tight end Theo Johnson also caught a touchdown, but it was nullified on an offensive pass interference call. Johnson ran a route on 72.5% of dropbacks.
Dallas Cowboys
Stock Up Rico Dowdle & Brandin Cooks
The Dallas Cowboys were led by quarterback Cooper Rush in their Week 17 matchup. Rush completed 15 of 28 passes for 147 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 50.7. Trey Lance added one completion for 1 yard on a single pass attempt.
This ESPN report suggested we could see Lance under center in the season finale. Regardless, I like the LESS THAN on Rush’s 195.5 passing yards prop. He has gone Under in three of his last five games. Seven of the last 10 QBs to face Washington have gone UNDER their passing yards projection.
Only two passers (Jayden Daniels last week and Lamar Jackson) have hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week
In the rushing game, Rico Dowdle was the star, rushing for 104 yards on 23 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He played 66% of the snaps and had 12 carries in the first half. But he also lost a fumble in the fourth quarter and failed to punch in any of the three red-zone carries.
The Cowboys RB also had one catch for 4 yards.
Rico Dowdle has finished with more than 11.5 receiving yards one time, with Cooper Rush as the starter in Dallas. KaVontae Turpin added 18 yards on two carries, averaging 9.0 yards per carry, and Ezekiel Elliott contributed with just 2 yards on three attempts (0.7 yards per carry). Zeke played 16% of the snaps.
Cooper Rush ran for 2 yards on one attempt, while Trey Lance had 1 yard on one carry.
The receiving game was led by Brandin Cooks, who caught four passes on nine targets for 52 yards but was unable to find the end zone. He saw all his targets in the first half before being erased in the second half. Still, he was hyper-targeted without CeeDee Lamb. 36% target rate with a 55% air yards share (146 air yards).
Jalen Tolbert was another key contributor, hauling in 3 receptions on four targets for 30 yards and one touchdown.
Jake Ferguson caught three passes on five targets for 18 yards. KaVontae Turpin was involved, catching one pass for 16 yards on four targets. He saw a 53% snap share as the Dallas WR3.
Turpin is an interesting player to consider, given how often the team looks to scheme him touches.
Jalen Brooks, Jonathan Mingo, Dowdle, Ryan Flournoy, and Hunter Luepke each made brief contributions in the passing game, with Brooks, Mingo, and Dowdle each catching one pass, while Flournoy and Luepke had minimal impacts.
The Commanders-Cowboys is a rematch of Week 12, where Dallas won 34-26 on the road. Here’s the breakdown from the Week 13 forecast:
Cooper Rush efficiently commanded the Cowboys’ offense, completing 24 of 32 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. He posted an impressive passer rating of 117.6 and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt.
Rush completed 24 of his 32 pass attempts for 247 yards and two touchdowns and recorded an average time to throw of 2.38 seconds, the quickest by a Cowboys quarterback in a game this season.
Rush excelled against man coverage, completing 8 of 11 passes when facing man for 129 yards and both of his touchdowns. Rush’s 151.1 passer rating against man coverage is the highest by a Cowboys quarterback since Dak Prescott posted a perfect 158.3 in Week 8, 2023 (min. five attempts against man).
This was an overall crazy game with a wacky finish. According to Next Gen Stats, the 31 total points in the final 3:30 of the game are the second most in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs).
Rico Dowdle carried the load on the ground, logging 19 carries for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt with a long run of 9 yards. He also fumbled but still played 61% of the snaps (an increase from 49% last week).
Ezekiel Elliott struggled in limited work, managing just 6 yards on three carries.
Backfield contributions came from Dowdle, who caught all 3 of his targets for 12 yards, and Hunter Luepke with a 10-yard reception. Dowdle finished with 22 touches in Week 12.
I will say that he might not get there as a receiver. His Prizepicks line is set at 14.5 yards, which he has been under in three straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.
LESS THAN 14.5 receiving yards for Dowdle in Week 13.
Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb each had single carries for minimal gains, while Trey Lance recorded a 3-yard loss on his lone attempt.
CeeDee Lamb led the receiving corps with 10 catches on 12 targets for 67 yards (37% Target share), averaging 6.7 yards per catch with a long of 13 yards while also contributing 28 yards after the catch—a total of 41 air yards.
Tight end Luke Schoonmaker was a standout, hauling in 3 of 4 targets (13% Target share) for 55 yards and a touchdown, averaging 18.3 yards per reception with a 24-yard long play. However, Schoonmaker didn’t play the full Jake Ferguson role. He played 65% of the snaps and ran a route on just 56% of the dropbacks.
Jalen Brooks added a big play, catching a 41-yard pass on his lone reception.
Brandon Spann-Ford provided steady contributions from the tight end spot, catching both of his targets for 24 yards. He played 50% of the offensive snaps.
We aren’t even considering Schoonmaker as an option without the 22-yard TD score in the fourth quarter. Leave him on waivers.
Jalen Tolbert added 22 yards and a touchdown on two receptions (two red-zone targets), including a 16-yard gain.
Other notable contributions came from KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo, who combined for two receptions and 16 yards. Turpin also scored on a punt return touchdown.
Dallas also went back to Jalen Brooks over Ryan Flournoy as the traditional WR3. Brooks led the team in air yards (32%).
Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up DeVonta Smith
The Philadelphia Eagles leaned heavily on their ground game in their Week 17 matchup, led by running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley carried the ball 31 times for 167 yards, averaging a solid 5.4 yards per carry. He became just the 9th player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season.
Tyrion Davis-Price contributed 7 yards on three attempts (2.3 yards per carry), while Kenneth Gainwell added 4 yards on three carries (1.3 yards per carry). Kenny Pickett had 3 yards on three attempts, including a rushing touchdown. Tanner McKee struggled on the ground with -2 yards on two carries.
In the passing game, Kenny Pickett completed 10 of 15 passes for 143 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 119.6. Tanner McKee completed 3 of 4 passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns, posting an impressive passer rating of 156.2. The two quarterbacks combined for 197 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Pickett is dealing with broken ribs and Jalen Hurts missed this game with a concussion. Non-zero chance that McKee starts Week 18 in what is a somewhat meaningless game for the Eagles as they will most likely have the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
McKee played the majority of the second half. He targeted Smith/Brown equally.
The receiving corps was led by DeVonta Smith, who caught six passes on seven targets (41% Target share, 46% air yards share) for 120 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 49 yards. Smith should have had three TDs, but he was ruled down at the 1-yard line before an eventual Pickett rushing TD.
According to Next Gen Stats, Smith benefited from Daron Bland shadowing AJ Brown, instead facing off against Andrew Booth on nearly half of his routes (8 of 18, 44.4%).
Smith was targeted frequently in matchups against Booth, catching 5 of 6 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Bland aligned across from Brown on 15 of his 19 routes (78.9%), allowing three receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown on five targets against Brown.
A.J. Brown added 36 yards on three catches, with one touchdown. Brown scored an earlier TD but it was overturned on a holding penalty.
Grant Calcaterra contributed with 34 yards on one reception.
Kenneth Gainwell had 5 yards on one catch, and Saquon Barkley caught two passes for 2 yards.
E.J. Jenkins was targeted once but did not record a reception.
In Week 18, Philly plays the Giants. Eagles don’t have much to play for and seem likely to rest their starters. They are FG favorites at home.
It is a rematch of Week 7. Here’s what happened per the Week 8 fantasy football forecast:
Jalen Hurts completed 10 of 14 passes for 114 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 119.3 and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.
Saquon Barkley was electric on the ground, rushing 17 times for 176 yards and a touchdown, averaging an impressive 10.4 yards per carry with a long of 55 yards. 4 times he rushed in the red zone.
Kenneth Gainwell contributed with 13 carries for 56 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and breaking off a 14-yard run. 5 rushing attempts with no touchdowns in the red zone.
Jalen Hurts chipped in with 22 yards on seven carries, scoring two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 3.1 yards per rush and a long of 16 yards.
Will Shipley had 8 carries but only managed 15 yards, averaging 1.9 yards per carry.
A.J. Brown was Hurts’ top target, catching all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown, averaging 17.8 yards per catch with a long of 41 yards and 15 yards after the catch (YAC) with 75 air yards, 75% air yards share, and 35.71% Target share.
Saquon Barkley also added two receptions on three targets for 11 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per reception with 19 YAC.
Kenneth Gainwell caught his only target for 11 yards, with 8 YAC.
Grant Calcaterra had a short reception, catching one pass for 5 yards.
Parris Campbell and Jahan Dotson were both targeted once but did not record a catch.
DeVonta Smith had a single reception for negative yardage (-2 yards) on two targets. 1 air yard, 1% air yards share, 14.29% Target share. This was the most outlier of outlier games for Smith. Not involved at all despite Dallas Goedert being out of the lineup. Buy low.
Miami Dolphins
Stock Up Tyreek Hill | Buy De’Von Achane | Stock Up Jonnu Smith | Add Malik Washington
The Miami Dolphins relied on a solid rushing game led by Tyler Huntley, who had seven carries for 52 yards (7.4 yards per carry), scoring a touchdown with a long of 18 yards.
De’Von Achane had 10 carries for 25 yards (2.5 yards per carry), while Jeff Wilson added 3 carries for 5 yards (1.7 yards per carry), including a red-zone attempt. Achane played 53% of the snaps and saw 10 touches in the first half. Achane added two catches for 13 yards on five targets. The Dolphins tried to get Achane going as a receiver, but three of his targets were wiped off because of penalties.
Bizarrely, he also only saw two touches in the second half.
Raheem Mostert contributed six carries for 3 yards (0.5 yards per carry) on a 40% snap share, and Malik Washington had a negative yardage on his one carry.
In the passing game, Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes for 225 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 115.5.
The receiving group was led by Tyreek Hill, who received nine targets (38% Target share and 58% air yards share), catching nine passes for 105 yards, though he did not score a touchdown, with a long of 25 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Hill hauled in 9 of 9 targets for 105 yards against the Browns, averaging 3.8 yards per route, his most since Week 1 (4.1).
Hill was most productive in the intermediate area of the field, setting season highs in targets (5), receptions (5), and receiving yards (77) on targets between 10 and 19 air yards downfield. Hill generated a season-high +2.3 receptions over expected on the day after recording -1.3 receptions over expected this season entering Week 17.
Malik Washington saw five targets, catching four passes for 41 yards. He filled in directly for an injured Jaylen Waddle.
Jonnu Smith was targeted 4 times, catching 3 for 26 yards, including a touchdown in the red zone.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine games. The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season
Raheem Mostert added two catches for 16 yards on two targets. River Cracraft caught one pass for 16 yards on one target.
Dee Eskridge caught one pass for 8 yards on one target.
With Miami still vying for a final playoff spot, I think we will see Tua Tagovailoa return. They are taking on the Jets on the road. Buy the dip on the offense after Huntley started in Week 17.
Cleveland Browns
Stock Down Jerome Ford | Stock Up Jerry Jeudy
The Cleveland Browns featured a balanced rushing attack led by D’Onta Foreman, who carried the ball 13 times for 49 yards (3.8 yards per carry), with a long of 7 yards.
Pierre Strong had five carries for 33 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and a long of 19 yards. Jerome Ford contributed six carries for 22 yards (3.7 yards per carry), and Dorian Thompson-Robinson added 4 carries for 10 yards (2.5 yards per carry), with a long of 9 yards.
Miami contained the Browns running game for the most part. The last 10 RBs that Miami has played have finished under their rushing yards projection.
Ford got hurt in the second quarter. Thomas got hurt in the fourth quarter. Foreman led the backfield with a 47% snap share.
In the passing game, Dorian Thompson-Robinson went 24 of 47 for 170 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception, posting a passer rating of 50.8.
The receiving corps was led by Jerry Jeudy, who saw 18 targets and caught 12 passes for 94 yards, though he did not score a touchdown, with a long reception of 17 yards. Jeudy was targeted on 39% of his routes. With Njoku out, Jeudy was DTR’s favorite target by commanding a 42% Target share and 116 air yards. But he also had multiple drops.
In Thompson-Robinson’s five starts, this was the first time a Browns receiver has surpassed 66 receiving yards.
Jordan Akins was targeted 8 times (19% Target share) and caught six passes for 49 yards as he stepped in for Njoku.
Pierre Strong saw five targets, catching 3 for 15 yards.
Blake Whiteheart added one reception for 8 yards on one target.
Michael Woods and Elijah Moore each caught one pass for 3 and 1 yard, respectively, on four targets. Woods had three red-zone targets.
Jamari Thrash and Foreman did not record any receptions despite being targeted 1 and 2 times, respectively.
The Browns will play as massive underdogs versus the Ravens in Week 18. They beat Baltimore earlier this season, 29-24, but Jameis Winston started that game.
Here’s what else happened via the Week 9 fantasy forecast:
The Cleveland Browns, led by Jameis Winston, showcased a powerful offensive display this week. Winston completed 27 of 41 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 115.3 and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston became the first Browns quarterback to finish with 300-plus passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions since Week 11 of 2022 (Jacoby Brissett). He has two 300-yard passing games since 2021. Deshaun Watson has zero. Also, Winston finished with +12.2 EPA, his third straight game generating positive EPA. Deshaun Watson recorded -73.9 EPA in Weeks 1-7, the fewest in the NFL.
Nick Chubb led the rushing game with 16 carries for 52 yards, although he didn’t find the end zone. D’Onta Foreman added five carries for 26 yards, with a strong 5.2 yards per carry average. Winston also had two short runs, adding a couple of yards on the ground.
Snap counts: Nick Chubb: 61%, Pierre Strong: 20%, D’Onta Foreman: 19%
Cedric Tillman was the standout in the receiving corps, hauling in seven of nine targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns, including a 38-yard catch. Tillman scored twice despite just one red zone target without scoring or catching. Tillman led in air yards with 159 (38.69%) and commanded a 21.95% Target share.
Alpha. Loved him coming out of Tennessee and I am LOVING what I am seeing so far this season with him in a full-time role. He leads the Browns in Target share (24%) and air yards share (38% the last two games.
Elijah Moore contributed with eight receptions on 12 targets, totaling 85 yards, while Jerry Jeudy added five catches for 79 yards with a 30-yard long play.
Jeudy saw a 19.51% Target share and added 98 air yards (23.84%). Moore had a strong 29.27% Target share with 95 air yards (23.11%). I think we might see these guys flip-flop production, so I’m not trying to target either aggressively off waivers.
Still, the schedule is great for Browns WRs. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Browns have a top-10 schedule for WRs for the rest of the season.
Tight end David Njoku had an effective game, catching all five of his seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Njoku commanded a 17.07% Target share with 60 air yards (14.60%).
Green Bay Packers
Stock Down Jayden Reed | Stock Up Romeo Doubs
The Green Bay Packers had a solid performance on the ground, led by Josh Jacobs, who carried the ball 17 times for 69 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and scored one touchdown with a long run of 13 yards. Jacobs had a second TD, but it was called back on a holding penalty.
Jacobs has rushed for fewer than 70.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games.
His PrizePicks prop is massive at 75.5 rushing yards. With little motivation to slam him into the Bears’ defense, I like the under in Week 18.
Emanuel Wilson added 6 carries for 29 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and one touchdown with a long run of 14 yards. Wilson scored after Jacob’s TD was negated on the same offensive drive. Both RBs had 3-plus red-zone carries.
Jordan Love contributed one carry for 6 yards (6.0 yards per carry).
Wilson was second in command behind Jacobs, playing 32% of the snaps. He out-snapped Chris Brooks for the first time in several weeks (13%). But no other RB touched the ball in the first half besides Jacobs.
In the passing game, Love completed 19 of 30 attempts for 185 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions, earning a passer rating of 91.7.
The receiving group was led by Romeo Doubs, who saw 11 targets and caught seven passes for 58 yards. He was targeted on 38% of his routes run with 88 air yards.
Tucker Kraft received three targets, catching two passes for 53 yards.
Dontayvion Wicks was targeted 5 times (17% Target share, 68 air yards), hauling in 4 receptions for 43 yards. He filled in as the 1-for-1 replacement for Christian Watson.
Bo Melton added three receptions on four targets for 18 yards (60 air yards)—36% target rate.
Jayden Reed saw four targets, catching one pass for 6 yards.
Luke Musgrave was targeted one time in the red zone, catching the pass for 4 yards.
Malik Heath was also targeted one time and caught one pass for 3 yards, scoring a touchdown with a long reception of 3 yards.
Green Bay will play Chicago in Week 18, where the Packers do not have much to play for besides playoff wildcard seeding.
This is a rematch of a Week 11 game in Chicago that the Bears should have won versus the Packers.
Jordan Love was efficient in Week 11, completing 13 of 17 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Love achieved a completion percentage of 76.5%, with a passer rating of 113 and an impressive 15.4 yards per attempt.
According to Next Gen Stats, Love completed every one of his six passes over 10 air yards for 182 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against the Bears.
On the ground, Josh Jacobs carried the load with 18 rushes for 76 yards and one touchdown, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and a long run of 12 yards. Jacobs had four red-zone rushing attempts converted into one rushing touchdown on an 80% snap share.
Love also contributed with his legs, rushing four times for 18 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. Emmanuel Wilson added 17 yards on two carries, averaging 8.5 yards per carry; however, he played fewer snaps than Chris Brooks (22% vs. 7%).
Brooks has out-snapped Wilson in three straight games.
With MarShawn Lloyd hurt, I’d bet this is a full-blown committee if Jacobs were to suffer an injury.
In the passing game, Christian Watson dominated with a career-high 150 yards on 4 receptions from 4 targets, averaging a stellar 37.5 yards per catch, with a long gain of 60 yards and an additional 52 yards after the catch. Watson commanded a 23% Target share and 100-plus air yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Watson caught two receptions and gained 70+ yards when aligned in the slot (73 yards) and when aligned out wide (77 yards). His +76 receiving yards over expected against the Bears are the most by any Packers receiver this season.
This is why we have chased Watson’s usage for the last two weeks! In the last three games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (17) and air yards (315), catches (11) and receiving yards (226).
Jacobs showcased his versatility, catching 4 of 5 targets for 58 yards, with a long gain of 23 and 59 yards after the catch. He led the team with a 29% Target share.
Jayden Reed was effective with two receptions on two targets for 23 yards and the team’s sole receiving touchdown, boasting 11.5 yards per reception and a long gain of 15. He turned his single red-zone target into a touchdown. Reed’s targets have been down with his snaps/routes due to his slot status (50% route participation and 92% slot snap rate), but he still always seems to find a way. Too good of a player to trade away when you don’t get a strong enough return.
Romeo Doubs caught 1 of 2 targets for 17 yards, while Chris Brooks hauled in both of his targets for 13 yards, adding 25 yards after the catch. Doubs can be dropped in shallower formats.
Tight end Tucker Kraft and wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks were both targeted once but did not record a reception.
Kraft was targeted once in the red zone but did not score (the pass was intercepted). Do not panic. Kraft ran a route on 75% of dropbacks and played nearly all the snaps still.
Minnesota Vikings
Stock Up Cam Akers & T.J. Hockenson
The Minnesota Vikings relied on a balanced rushing attack led by Aaron Jones, who carried the ball 12 times for 47 yards (3.9 yards per carry). Cam Akers added 6 carries for 18 yards (3.0 yards per carry). Ty Chandler contributed five carries for 7 yards (1.4 yards per carry), and Sam Darnold added 3 carries for -3 yards.
Jones was targeted 5 times, catching four passes for 30 yards. Akers had three targets, catching two passes for 15 yards and one touchdown. His two receptions were key in the Vikings’ victory over the Packers.
C.J. Ham added two receptions on two targets for 15 yards.
Jones got shaken up in this game with a leg injury. It was reported after the game, he suffered a quad contusion. That’s why he only played 51% of the snaps. If he can’t go in Week 18, Akers will shoulder the majority of backfield touches.
In the passing game, Darnold had a strong performance, completing 33 of 43 attempts for a career-high 377 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 116.1.
Sam Darnold has recorded 231+ passing yards in each of the Vikings’ last 11 games.
The receiving game was led by Justin Jefferson, who was targeted 11 times (28% Target share), catching eight passes for 92 yards.
Jalen Nailor saw five targets, catching all 5 for 81 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Addison was targeted 8 times (twice in the red zone), catching six passes for 69 yards and one touchdown. He had another deep target (commanded over 100 air yards, 35% air yards share) that he was unable to haul in the end zone.
T.J. Hockenson had six targets, hauling in 5 receptions for 68 yards. Jonny Mundt caught the lone pass on his one target for 7 yards. Green Bay’s defense continues to struggle versus tight ends.
Seven of the last eight
TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.
The Vikings will take on the Lions in a road shootout with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.
This is a rematch of Week 7. Here’s what happened as outlined in the Week 8 fantasy forecast:
Sam Darnold had an efficient game, completing 22 of 27 passes for 259 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 103.5.
Aaron Jones led the way on the ground with 14 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. His longest run was a 34-yard burst during the first drive. He played a 72% snap share and was not limited by the hip/hamstring injury he entered the game with.
Sam Darnold added 39 yards on four carries, including a 19-yard scramble, averaging 9.8 yards per carry.
Ty Chandler had just two carries for 4 yards. Justin Jefferson chipped in with a 3-yard rush on a botched WR pass play.
Justin Jefferson was the standout receiver, catching seven of eight targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 11.6 yards per catch with a long of 25 yards, adding 29 yards after the catch (YAC) with 73 air yards, 33.18% air yards share, and 30.77% Target share.
Jalen Nailor had a big play with four receptions on five targets for 76 yards, including a 33-yard long reception and 28 YAC with 61 air yards, 27.73% air yards share, and 19.23% Target share.
Jordan Addison caught three of four targets for 66 yards, including a 51-yard-long reception.
Aaron Jones was also involved in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for 23 yards, averaging 7.7 yards per reception.
Johnny Mundt had four receptions on five targets but only gained 8 yards, averaging 2 yards per catch.
Josh Oliver caught his lone target for five yards.
Atlanta Falcons
Stock Up Kyle Pitts | Stock Down Darnell Mooney
In the latest game, the Atlanta Falcons relied heavily on their rushing attack, with Bijan Robinson leading the way. Robinson carried the ball 17 times, gaining 90 yards and averaging 5.3 yards per carry, finding the end zone twice. Robinson played a whopping 91% of the offensive snaps in a must-win contest.
Robinson has five straight games of over 88.5 rushing yards (six of the last seven).
Tyler Allgeier added 19 yards on three carries, while Ray-Ray McCloud contributed a 14-yard rush on his lone attempt. Michael Penix also ran the ball twice for 3 yards.
In the passing game, Michael Penix Jr. went 19 for 35, passing for 223 yards and one touchdown, but also threw one interception, finishing with a quarterback rating of 71.5.
The Falcons’ passing game was primarily focused on Drake London, who led the team with 13 targets. London caught seven passes for 106 yards but was unable to find the end zone. He had a big impact on the game, with an average of 13.9 yards per reception and an Air Yards Share of 41%, accounting for 37% of the team’s total targets.
London was hyper-targeted by Penix for the second straight week, earning a target on 36% of his routes run.
Kyle Pitts contributed to the Falcons’ aerial attack, catching four passes for 44 yards and one red-zone touchdown on five targets.
Darnell Mooney had two receptions for 37 yards on five targets, and Robinson, while primarily used in the run game, caught three passes for 8 yards. Mooney was not super involved, seeing just 66 air yards.
Other receivers, including Khadarel Hodge, Chris Blair, Charlie Woerner, and Ray-Ray McCloud, also saw limited action in the receiving game, with Hodge making one reception for 9 yards and McCloud catching one pass for 13 yards to go along with a red-zone rushing attempt.
Hodge was a favorite of Penix’s downfield, as he accumulated 78 air yards.
Atlanta will play the Panthers in Week 18. To get into the playoffs, they need to win, plus hope for a Buccaneers loss.
Eight of the last 12 RBs to face Atlanta have gone over their rushing yards projection.
The Panthers-Falcons is a rematch of Week 6, where Atlanta won 38-20 on the road. Here’s the breakdown from the Week 7 forecast:
The Atlanta Falcons secured a solid performance on the ground and through the air in their matchup, led by strong showings from running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.
Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 18 times for 105 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and ripped off a long run of 20 yards with one touchdown. Allgeier had eight red zone rushing attempts, gaining 13 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown. He was also targeted once in the red zone but did not score a receiving touchdown.
Bijan Robinson added 95 rushing yards on 15 carries, scoring two touchdowns with an impressive 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 17 yards. Robinson had four red zone rushing attempts, gaining 18 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns. He was targeted once but did not score a receiving touchdown.
Robinson out-carried Allgeier 8 to 5 in this first half, with both B-Rob’s scores coming early. Allgeier took five carries to bleed the clock in the fourth quarter.
Snaps: Bijan Robinson: 56%, Tyler Allgeier: 41%
According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons’ running back duo totaled 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 33 combined carries in Week 6 against the Panthers.
It’s been six weeks, and Allgeier is not going away. And he’s the cheapest access point to the Falcons’ offense as a perceived handcuff. It seems like he can be relied on in certain situations. He sees nearly as much red-zone usage as Robinson does in full-on David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs fashion.
Kirk Cousins managed the passing game, completing 19 of 30 passes for 225 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a 63.3% completion rate and a passer rating of 97.2.
Drake London was Cousins’ primary target, catching six of 10 targets for 74 yards, including a long reception of 24 yards, a touchdown, and accounting for a 35% Target share. London was targeted three times in the red zone and converted two catches into one touchdown. He had 95 air yards, 52% air yard share.
Tight end Kyle Pitts also made an impact, catching three of five targets for 70 yards, including a 52-yard reception and a 17% Target share. Pitts ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks. He has been cashing in on the big plays, so I am afraid this won’t sustain. Then again it’s tight end, so it’s already slim pickings. Put him on the trade block.
Darnell Mooney hauled in three of his five targets for 38 yards, showing off his speed with a long catch of 19 yards, while Ray-Ray McCloud was targeted four times, catching three passes for 30 yards. Mooney had two red zone targets but did not catch either or score. His air yards were also low (16). Cousins also missed him down the sideline with an underthrown ball that could have easily gone for six.
There were no downfield shots for Mooney in a low-passing game for Cousins. Buy low to get access to the Falcons’ offense.
Bijan Robinson also contributed to the passing game, catching all four of his three targets for 10 yards.
Washington Commanders
Stock Down Terry McLaurin & Brian Robinson | Stock Up Zach Ertz
The team’s rushing attack was led by Jayden Daniels, who rushed for 127 yards on 16 attempts, averaging an impressive 7.9 yards per carry, but failed to find the end zone. Brian Robinson, coming in as the second-leading rusher, contributed 60 yards on 13 carries, showcasing an efficient average of 4.6 yards per attempt. Chris Rodriguez added a short rushing touchdown on five attempts for 16 yards.
B-Rob led the team in first-half carries, going six for 23 yards. He also led the backfield with a 54% snap share.
Robison totaled five red zone touches in the red zone to Rodriguez’s four. Unfortunately, the former Alabama running back didn’t score for the second straight week.
C-Rod finished third in snaps at 22%, just barely behind Jeremy McNichols, who was at 27%. McNichols operated as the main change-of-pace back, leading the Commanders’ backfield in routes run with three targets.
Overall, the team ran for a total of 207 yards with no rushing touchdowns, but Daniels’ dynamic running ability helped keep the offense flowing.
Through the passing game, Jayden Daniels was once again the centerpiece. His 24 completions on 36 attempts for 227 yards and three touchdowns with one interception allowed him to efficiently manage the offense.
The Commanders spread the ball around well in the receiving game, with Olamide Zaccheaus having a standout performance. Zaccheaus was targeted 11 times, including penalties (26% Target share), catching eight passes for 85 yards and one touchdown, contributing 23% of the team’s air yards share.
He caught all six of his targets in the first half for 63 yards, and he had another TD called back on a penalty.
Zach Ertz, the Commanders’ tight end, was another key player, catching six passes on seven targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns (three red-zone targets), finishing with 20% of the air yards share. He was back to his full-time role leading Washington in routes run.
If you followed the contract incentives last week in the SNF BettingPros Primer, you would have tailed to Ertz TD bet. He hit all three of his $250K incentives in Week 17, going over five receptions, 62 yards, and two TDs. For him to hit another level of incentives, he would need nine catches for 90 yards and two more TDs, which seems a tad bit aggressive for Week 18 with Washington not playing for much. They are playing their starters, though, so he could see decent volume.
Jamison Crowder contributed three receptions for 25 yards, while John Bates also contributed with a reception for 14 yards.
Terry McLaurin had seven targets but only managed one reception for 5 yards, finishing with 88 air yards and an air yards share of 36%, showing that his deep ball opportunities were not fully capitalized on in this game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell aligned across from McLaurin on 32 of his 34 routes (94.1% shadow rate), allowing just one reception for 5 yards on six targets.
Terrell pressed McLaurin on 43.8% of his routes while recording an average target separation of 1.2 yards.
In the air yards share, McLaurin finished with the highest percentage (36%) despite his underwhelming production, while Zaccheaus contributed 23%, and Ertz accounted for 20%.
TMC will bounce back the next time he plays based on the usage alone.
Jamison Crowder caught three passes for 25 yards on five targets.
The Commanders clinched a wild-card berth with a victory and likely don’t have much to play for in Week 18 against the Dallas Cowboys. Dan Quinn has said they will play their starters, but to what extent remains to be seen.
The Commanders-Cowboys is a rematch of Week 12, where Dallas won 34-26 on the road. Here’s the breakdown from the Week 13 forecast:
Quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 38 attempts for 275 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged 7.2 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 82.7.
Daniels was the team’s leading rusher, recording seven carries for 74 yards, including a 23-yard long run and a rushing touchdown.
Jeremy McNichols contributed 22 yards on three carries, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on a 24% snap rate.
Austin Ekeler managed 22 yards on nine carries, struggling with a 2.4 yards per carry average. Ekeler got hurt on a kick-off at the end of the game. He is back in the concussion protocol – he missed games earlier this season with a concussion.
Brian Robinson got hurt early in the game but returned to action. He was injured on his first carry but finished with zero touches in the second half.
With RB injuries piling up, we could see McNichols in a featured role come Week 13. I understand the matchup is brutal against the run-stuffing Titans, but the touches and TD upside will be there for McNichols, who has had his moments this season. The team clearly trusts him.
Dyami Brown and Robinson added 14 and 13 rushing yards, respectively, on limited touches.
Terry McLaurin was a standout, catching 5 of 6 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown (80-plus air yards). His day included a massive 86-yard reception, showcasing his big-play ability with 58 yards after the catch. The majority of his production game on a touchdown in the fourth quarter. McLaurin had two targets in the first half.
Not ideal by any means. TMC is very much threading the needle of the WR trust tree by very much outperforming his usage. Eventually, things will catch up to him.
He has been third in Target share in the last three weeks (14%), tied with Austin Ekeler. The Commanders also have a bottom-five schedule for the rest of the season for WRs.
Noah Brown led the team in targets (10, 29% Target share) and caught six passes for 71 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per catch with a long of 19 yards. Brown earned a 36% air yards share with over 100 air yards.
Over the last month, Brown has led the Commanders in targets (23% Target share) and air yards (268).
Zach Ertz contributed as a reliable option, hauling in 6 of 8 targets (24% Target share) for 38 yards and a touchdown (two red-zone targets).
Dyami Brown added 22 yards on two receptions, averaging 11 yards per catch with a long of 20 yards.
Additional contributions came from John Bates, who turned his lone target into a 13-yard gain, and Brian Robinson, who gained 11 yards on his only reception.
Detroit Lions
Stock Up Jahmyr Gibbs & Sam LaPorta & Jameson Williams
On the ground, Jahmyr Gibbs was the standout, carrying the ball 18 times for 117 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown. His longest run went for 30 yards and he totaled three carries in the red zone. Gibbs played 53% of the snaps.
Craig Reynolds added 31 yards on seven carries, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt, but did not find the end zone. He was second in snaps at 34%.
Jermar Jefferson contributed with 9 yards on three carries (all inside the red zone), while Jameson Williams had a 3-yard touchdown run despite a negative rushing average (-1.0 yards per carry) from 2 attempts.
In the passing game, Jared Goff was efficient, completing 26 of 34 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Goff has recorded 269+ passing yards in six of the Lions’ last seven games.
He finished the game with a passer rating of 132.4. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the focal point of the passing attack, receiving 10 targets (five inside the red zone) and catching 8 of them for 101 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in air yards with 59, contributing 38% of the team’s total air yards and a Target share of 30%.
Sam LaPorta, the tight end, also played a key role, securing six receptions on eight targets for 64 yards and a touchdown (two red-zone targets), with 52 air yards. He had 24% of the team’s Target share and 33% of the air yards. Sam LaPorta has 3.5-plus receptions in four straight games.
Jameson Williams was another significant contributor, catching 5 of 8 targets for 36 yards, and he recorded 21 air yards with a TD reception in the red zone. His aDOT was 2.6, indicating a relatively short average depth of target.
Jahmyr Gibbs caught all 4 of his targets for 46 yards, including a long reception of 19 yards. His receiving usage was a key part of the Lions’ offense, and he contributed 12% of the total Target share. Gibbs also has 30-plus receiving yards in four straight games.
Craig Reynolds also caught two passes for 35 yards, while Allen Robinson had one catch for 21 yards. Tim Patrick caught a two-point conversion.
The Lions will host the Vikings in a shootout with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.
Because the defense is so bad/injured, the Lions are able to feed all their weapons.
Five of the last seven quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +92 passing yards.
The only ones who have failed to hit the mark? Caleb Williams and Jordan Love in the Vikings rematches.
This is a rematch of Week 7. Here’s what happened as outlined in the Week 8 fantasy forecast:
Jared Goff was nearly flawless, completing 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns, achieving an outstanding passer rating of 140. His precision led to an average of 11.2 yards per attempt.
Jahmyr Gibbs had a standout game, rushing for 116 yards on 15 carries, with an impressive 7.7 yards per carry and two touchdowns. His longest run was a 45-yard burst that set the tone for the Lions’ ground attack. 2 rushing attempts in the red zone with a backfield-leading 58% snap share.
David Montgomery added 31 yards on nine carries but was held to just 3.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 8 yards. He played 39% of the snaps, left the game briefly with a knee injury, and also lost a fumble. It was not “Knuckles” best day at the NFL office. With all the shine on Gibbs, I think Monty is a sharp buy-low after he failed to score a TD for the first time this season.
Jared Goff contributed two rushes for -4 yards, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin had a single 1-yard carry.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was electric, catching all eight of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown, averaging 14 yards per reception. He had a long catch of 35 yards and added 24 yards after the catch (YAC) with 87 air yards, 49.43% air yards share, and 32% Target share.
Jahmyr Gibbs also contributed in the passing game, hauling in all four of his targets for 44 yards, averaging 11 yards per catch with a long of 18 yards and an impressive 53 YAC.
Kalif Raymond had three catches on four targets for 39 yards, including a 21-yard reception and a touchdown.
David Montgomery was involved in the receiving game with three catches on four targets for 39 yards, including a 19-yard long one-handed reception.
Tim Patrick caught both of his targets for 25 yards, with a long of 22 yards, averaging 12.5 yards per catch.
Sam LaPorta had a single catch for 25 yards, making the most of his lone target with 21 air yards, 11.93% air yards share, and 8% Target share. Back-to-back games with one target. Woof.
Jameson Williams caught his lone target but lost 4 yards on the play. -5 air yards, -2.84% air yards share, 4% Target share. WOOF.
I’d like to claim that a usage change contributed to the lackluster performances for Williams/LaPorta, but their route participation didn’t really change. Just not their days to produce in a very crowded offense. Hard for them to produce when guys like Patrick/Raymond are also chipping in and commanding targets. LaPorta’s disappointed all season though (listed as a sell last week) so I’m not sure this a “buy-low” opportunity. More of a reason to send an offer for Jamo.
San Francisco 49ers
Buy Ricky Pearsall
Quarterback Brock Purdy delivered a strong outing, completing 27 of 35 passes for 377 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 116.0. Purdy did not finish the game as he exited late in the fourth quarter with an elbow nerve injury (yikes).
In the rushing game, Isaac Guerendo led the team with nine carries for 34 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The rookie had three red-zone rushes but didn’t score despite a 61% snap share.
Deebo Samuel added a burst with three carries for 16 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, while Purdy himself rushed for 12 yards on three attempts, including a rushing touchdown. Ricky Pearsall also had two carries for 6 yards. The 49ers’ balanced rushing attack helped them control the clock and keep the pressure off the passing game.
As for receiving, Ricky Pearsall was the standout performer, catching eight passes for 141 yards and a red-zone touchdown. He also led the team in Target share (29%, 10 targets) and air yards share (42%, 134 air yards) in his breakout game. The rookie from Florida was targeted on over 30% of his routes run and clearly was an emphasis in the passing game from the jump. It makes sense that a team with nothing to play for would like to get an extended look at their younger players who will play big roles in 2025 and beyond.
According to Next Gen Stats, Pearsall set career highs in receptions (8) and yards (141) against the Lions on Monday night, generating +26 receiving yards over expected.
Pearsall was at his best on downfield passes (10+ air yards), catching 5 of 7 such targets for 122 yards, the 3rd-most downfield receiving yards in a game by a 49ers player this season.
Jauan Jennings also had an impactful game, catching seven passes for 67 yards, and his 100 air yards were the second-highest on the team. He also had a 29% Target share on 10 targets (one in the red zone).
Tight end George Kittle continued to be a reliable option in the passing game, hauling in all eight of his targets (one red-zone target) for 112 yards. His ability to move the chains was vital to sustaining offensive drives. He also had 50 more receiving yards wiped away on penalties.
Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one and 45-plus in 12 straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. He has gone over 54.5 yards in 11 of his last 13 games. Kittle has over 66.5 yards in six of his last nine games.
Running back Isaac Guerendo also contributed to the passing attack, catching four passes for 65 yards.
Deebo Samuel, despite limited opportunities, made an impact with his sole reception, a 5-yard touchdown on his lone target in the red zone.
Samuel has gone over 22 yards once in the last seven weeks. He is also two rushing TDs away from a $150K bonus.
The 49ers’ running back committee was also involved in the passing game, with fullback Kyle Juszczyk catching one pass for 9 yards and a touchdown in the red zone, and Chris Conley added one catch for 13 yards.
The 49ers will face the Cardinals in Week 18, a rematch of Week 5. Here’s the recap of the matchup from Week 6’s fantasy forecast.
Brock Purdy completed 19 of 35 passes for 244 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 62.1 and an average of seven yards per attempt with a completion percentage of 54.3%.
On the ground, Jordan Mason was the leading rusher with 14 carries for 89 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and a long of 34 yards. Mason had four red zone carries but did not score and lost a fumble.
Purdy contributed 33 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 8.3 yards per carry with a long of 12 yards. Isaac Guerendo added 22 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with a long run of five yards. Guerendo carried the ball twice in the red zone.
Deebo Samuel Sr. had three carries for 9 yards.
In the receiving game, Brandon Aiyuk led the team with 12 targets, catching eight passes for 147 yards, averaging 18.4 yards per reception with a long of 53 yards and 49 yards after the catch (YAC). The 49ers’ WR commanded 143 air yards.
George Kittle was targeted 12 times, catching eight passes for 84 yards, with a touchdown. Kittle had six red zone targets, catching five of them, with a score. After Week 5, he leads all tight ends in red zone targets (nine). He is pacing to be the TE1 overall with his touchdown usage.
Aiyuk is tied with George Pickens among WRs with the most red-zone targets without a red-zone touchdown. Suggests there is much more to come for Aiyuk, but there’s a strong to sell high with Aiyuk being on the favorable side of the Target share in Week 5. It won’t always be the case.
Jauan Jennings caught one of four targets for 13 yards. Jennings had two red zone targets, but he did not record any catches or touchdowns. He also seemed to get banged up during the start of the game with a finger/hand injury, but he seemed okay.
Deebo Samuel had three targets and caught one pass for 11 yards with 14 YAC, while Mason caught his only target for nine yards.
Aiyuk led with 12 targets (34% Target share), followed by Kittle (34%), Jennings with four targets (11%), and Samuel with three targets (8%). As is always the case with the 49ers’ top playmakers, you buy after bad games and sell after great games to maximize your return on investment. Samuel’s four-touch and one-catch game against the Cardinals is the lowest amount of opportunities he’s had in a game since last year against the Cardinals at home.
Per Next Gen Stats, Aiyuk’s 128 yards on such targets are the most by a receiver in a game since Week 7, 2023 (Travis Kelce vs LAC, 154 yards). In Weeks 1-4, Aiyuk caught eight receptions for 132 yards on 13 intermediate targets. Aiyuk caught seven receptions for 135 yards on nine targets against single-high safety coverage.
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