Welcome back, everybody! NFL Week 16 is officially in the books, which means we are onto the fantasy football championships in most leagues! We made it, fam. Let’s have some fun.
As we head into Week 17, my focus is shifting to rest-of-season outlooks for players (essentially Week 17 rankings) now that trade deadlines have passed. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays, player props, start/sit decisions, and who to stash, drop, or add off the waiver wire.
My goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
Prizepicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
And just so I can hit it up at the top, here are the top and bottom schedules for Week 17 based on schedules to consider by each position via the FantasyPros SOS tool:
Top-Schedules:
- QB – Broncos, Buccaneers, Eagles, Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, Browns
- RB – Buccaneers, Browns, Raiders, Eagles, Lions, Falcons
- WR – Bills, Rams, Patriots, Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Panthers
- TE – Giants, Titans, Buccaneers, Raiders, Eagles, Jaguars
- DST – Jaguars, Colts, Buccaneers, Bills, Bengals, Chargers
- K – Joshua Karty, Tyler Bass, Cam Little, Chad Ryland, Chase McLaughlin
Bottom-Schedules:
- QB – Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Seahawks
- RB – Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Steelers
- WR – Cowboys, 49ers, Bears, Colts, Saints
- TE – Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Jets, Panthers, Bills, Chargers
- DST – Jets, Texans. Bears
- K –Will Reichard, Younghoe Koo, Will Lutz, Jason Sanders
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Week 17.
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Week 17 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below:
| AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST | NFC EAST | NFC NORTH | NFC SOUTH | NFC WEST |
| BUF | BAL | HOU | KC | DAL | DET | TB | SF |
| MIA | CLE | JAC | LV | PHI | GB | NO | LAR |
| NYJ | PIT | IND | DEN | NYG | MIN | ATL | SEA |
| NE | CIN | TEN | LAC | WAS | CHI | CAR | ARI |
Denver Broncos
Stock Up Marvin Mims & Audric Estime
The Denver Broncos showcased a balanced offensive effort in Week 16, with quarterback Bo Nix leading the team through both the air and ground. Nix completed 29 of 40 passes for 263 yards, throwing two touchdowns without an interception and achieving a passer rating of 106.6.
It was a game filled with dump-offs. According to Next Gen Stats, Nix finished with an average air yards per attempt of 3.3 yards against the Chargers, the 2nd-shortest average passing depth in a game by a QB this season with at least 20 pass attempts.
His top target was second-year WR Marvin Mims, who caught 3 of his five targets (14% Target share) for 62 yards. Mims had an impressive 60 air yards, leading the team in this category with an air yards percentage of 49%. He also posted an aDOT (average depth of target) of 12 yards, showing his role in deeper passing routes.
The routes were finally there for Mims, and he delivered. He also has had five-plus touches in four of his last six games.
Courtland Sutton, a frequent target of Nix, caught 5 of 6 targets (17% Target share) for 50 yards. Sutton’s air yards (45) and aDOT of 7.5 indicated his role as a reliable short-to-medium option.
Rookie Troy Franklin contributed two catches for 25 yards, while Devaughn Vele also had two catches for 21 yards, including a red-zone touchdown. Lucas Krull, the tight end, caught all 3 of his targets for 21 yards, further spreading the ball across the offense.
The running game was led by rookie Audric Estime, who carried the ball 9 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He started the game for the Broncos with Jaleel McLaughlin inactive. Estime also led the backfield in first-half carries, going five for 30 yards (6.0 YPC) while also getting the nod in the red zone with two carries near the goal line.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos recorded a season-high 76.9% rushing success rate in the first half. But the Broncos generated a season-low 12.5% rushing success rate in the second half. The Broncos recorded all 3 of their explosive runs (10+ yards) in the first half, their fifth game this season without a run of 10+ yards in the second half.
Javonte Williams also had a busy day, rushing 4 times for 24 yards, while rookie Blake Watson added 10 yards on four carries.
Watson chipped in as the RB3, playing 16% of the snaps. He stepped into a larger role due to the absence of McLaughlin.
Javonte Williams has rushed for fewer than 25 yards in five of his last six games.
Nix himself contributed 25 rushing yards on three carries, showing versatility as a rusher. The rookie QB tends to run more when he is an underdog, which is the exact projection for Week 17 (6 of 8 toward the over in his rushing props) against the Bengals in a potential shootout on Saturday night.
Javonte Williams (52%) and Mims (47%) also played significant snap percentages. Williams led the entire team and backfield with 11 targets (31% Target share). Nix missed Williams on a walk-in TD catch out in the flat, which resulted in an eventual Vele touchdown reception.
Mims played a season-high in snaps in Week 16 with a red-zone target. Estime played 13 snaps (20%).
It’s very encouraging to see positive games from both Estime and Mims, but we have been down this road before with Broncos skill players.
The ROS schedule goes @ CIN and vs. KC.
You’d have to be very desperate to start any Bronco not-named Nix or Sutton even in a plus-matchup versus Cincy. The way the backfield projects is that Estime will handle carries on early downs, but Williams will stay involved as a receiver. But it gets complicated if we get McLaughlin back in the fold for Week 17.
I think we see Estime lead the backfield in carries in Week 17, but that might not mean he is the best fantasy option among the backfield, given the potential for negative game script on the road.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Buy J.K. Dobbins | Buy Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston
Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 23 of 31 passes for 284 yards, tossing two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 110.1. Herbert was supported by a solid ground game led by running back Gus Edwards, who carried the ball 14 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns (four red-zone carries). Kimani Vidal added 24 rushing yards on five carries.
The Gus Bus played 46% of the snaps to Vidal’s 32% snap rate. Edwards’ total yardage came on one big run as he sat on 8 for 18 yards in the first half. He had a 43-yard rush in the fourth quarter. Without it, Edwards rushed 13 times for 25 yards—pain for those who bet on the Edwards rushing prop under (me) last Thursday night.
Edwards has fewer than 37.5 rushing yards in five of his last six games and has 50-plus yards in just three games played this season.
Also, something to keep in mind: J.K. Dobbins could return in Week 17 against the Patriots (great matchup). On the SNF broadcast three weeks ago, they said he intends to return in Week 17.
According to the Athletic, Dobbins can get an additional $150K each if he reaches thresholds of 900 and 1,050 rushing yards. He was sitting at 766 rushing yards before injuring his knee and being placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots have allowed 9 of their last 11 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards projection, including 86-plus in three of their last four games.
In the receiving game, wide receiver Josh Palmer led the team with six targets (21% Target share), catching three passes for 41 yards.
Ladd McConkey also had a standout performance, making six catches for 87 yards on six targets (21% Target share).
The Chargers’ passing attack was balanced, with Quentin Johnston catching three passes for 18 yards on six targets (more drops) and Derius Davis adding two receptions for 31 yards, including a touchdown. QJ can’t be trusted anywhere near fantasy football championship lineups.
The team featured an even distribution of targets, with Palmer leading in air yards (95 air yards, 52%).
Tight end Stone Smartt chipped in with three catches for 37 yards, while Hayden Hurst, Tucker Fisk, and Hassan Haskins all had smaller contributions. Haskins scored on a 34-yard catch-and-run, although the former Michigan RB played more than in past games with a 20% snap rate.
Smartt played 60% of the snaps despite the return of Hurst (12% snap share). He also went over his receiving yards prop for the third straight week.
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Houston Texans
Drop C.J. Stroud | Stock Up Dalton Schultz | Stock Down Joe Mixon
The Texans utilized a balanced rushing attack in Week 16. Joe Mixon led the team with 14 carries for 57 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, although he did not reach the end zone. Mixon played 66% of the snaps.
Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in four of his last six games. His opening rushing yards prop opened at 66.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks. One RB this season has surpassed that number this season (Saquon Barkley) against the Ravens. Slam the LESS THAN.
C.J. Stroud, the team’s quarterback, contributed on the ground with two carries for 23 yards, boasting an 11.5 yards per carry average. Dameon Pierce also added a carry for 4 yards, with a 4.0-yard average.
Stroud had a productive day through the air, completing 23 of 39 attempts for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 73.0.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stroud threw both interceptions, targeting Collins against split-safety shells. He also struggled against pressure, completing 5 of 15 for 82 yards, a touchdown, and an interception (-6.8% CPOE).
He orchestrated an efficient passing offense led by Tank Dell, who caught six passes for 98 yards, including a touchdown. Dell was targeted 7 times, contributing to 40% of the team’s Target share, and he made a significant impact with an air yardage of 132 yards, showcasing his downfield ability with a 19 average depth of target (aDOT). Unfortunately, on his TD reception, he suffered a gruesome knee injury.
Nico Collins was also heavily involved, receiving 10 targets and recording seven catches for 60 yards. Collins was key in maintaining possession and moving the chains, earning 93 air yards and a 9.30 aDOT. Collins’ consistent involvement resulted in a 28% Target share.
Tight end Dalton Schultz continued to be a safety valve for Stroud, grabbing five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown (22% Target share, two red-zone targets). Schultz, who was targeted 8 times, posted a solid 5.5-yard average per reception and was used effectively in the red zone. Robert Woods, another trusted target, caught three passes for 19 yards.
Xavier Hutchinson caught one pass for 8 yards, while Dameon Pierce and Joe Mixon were minimally involved in the passing game, with Mixon contributing a 14-yard reception despite negative air yards. Dare Ogunbowale did not register any catches, finishing with zero yards.
Woods posted a solid 22% Target share. He and Hutchinson will likely take on a larger role in Week 17 with Dell out the rest of the season. However, Woods’s role will likely be reduced if John Metchie returns in Week 17 (he was inactive in Week 16).
The biggest winner for Week 17 will be Schultz, given the plus matchup versus the Ravens. He can be a TE1 in the fantasy football championship round.
He plays a near-every-down role and ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks against Kansas City (27% target rate per route run). Schultz has 33-plus receiving yards in four of his last six games. Eight of the last 12 TEs to play Baltimore have exceeded their receiving yards prop. Take the MORE than on his 36.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks for Christmas Day.
Houston continues the fantasy football playoffs against the Ravens on Christmas.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Stock Up Xavier Worthy & Marquise Brown | Stock Down Travis Kelce | Sell Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco
The Chiefs’ running game was led by Kareem Hunt, who carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long of 20 yards. Patrick Mahomes also contributed on the ground, rushing for 33 yards on five attempts (6.6 yards per carry), including an opening touchdown and a long of 15 yards. Isiah Pacheco had nine carries for 26 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy also contributed on the ground with three carries for 10 yards (3.3 yards per carry).
Hunt was used as a receiving option as well, recording two catches for 24 yards, while Samaje Perine contributed three catches for 50 yards. Isiah Pacheco had one catch but gained just -1 yard on the play. He had another catch removed by an offensive holding penalty.
Hunt out-snapped Pacheco 43% to 35%. However, Pacheco did have more carries in the first half (4 vs 2). Hunt ran more routes, which helped push his snaps over Pacheco. Hunt also earned all the carries in the red zone (three) for the Chiefs.
I was afraid this backfield might get messy. KC is reluctant to turn it over fully to Pacheco, and Perine chipping in doesn’t help anyone. Pacheco might also not be healthy.
KC will play @ PIT on Christmas. Sell the backfield.
Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs’ air attack, completing 28 of his 41 attempts for 260 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 93.5.
Mahomes was most efficient in the quick passing game in the Chiefs’ win over the Texans, finishing 17 of 19 for 155 yards and a touchdown on passes under 2.5 seconds (+4.5% CPOE)
Mahomes’ average time to throw of 2.50 seconds was his fastest in a game since Week 4, 2021. Only one of his 41 pass attempts had a time to throw over four seconds, for a 2.4% rate, his lowest mark in a game since Week 1, 2020 (Next Gen Stats).
Worthy was the top receiver for the Chiefs, hauling in 7 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown, with 67 air yards and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.09. Worthy also had a solid Target share of 27% and 29% air yards share. The former Texas product was targeted on 32% of his route run and earned six red-zone opportunities.
According to Next Gen Stats, of Worthy’s 65 receiving yards, 61 came after the catch, the most YAC in a game of Worthy’s rookie season. Worthy caught all seven receptions on short passes (under 10 air yards), recording the shortest average route depth (9.6) of his career.
The rookie has been coming on in the second half of the season, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11. He has four catches or more in six straight games, with 40-plus yards in all contests. I like the MORE THAN on his 44.5 receiving yards in Week 17 and the alternate over on his 3.5 receptions on Prizepicks.
Marquise Brown followed with five receptions for 45 yards, averaging 7 yards per target with 56 air yards. Brown’s Target share was 20% on a total of eight targets. He only played 27% of the snaps in his first NFL game of the season. But he was hyper-targeted, earning a target on 57% of his routes run.
Travis Kelce caught five passes for 30 yards on seven targets (17% Target share, one red-zone target), contributing to the offense without finding the end zone. His aDOT was 4.71, with 33 air yards. This season, Kelce has finished UNDER 45.5 receiving yards in more than half of his games.
DeAndre Hopkins also added four receptions for 37 yards on all four of his targets (had another target removed by a penalty, with an aDOT of 7.75, showing he was used for more intermediate routes, though he didn’t find the end zone. He also played his standard sub-50% snap share, settling at 49% (62% route run rate).
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Stock Down Pat Freiermuth | Sell Najee Harris
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ rushing attack was led by Jaylen Warren, who carried the ball 12 times for 48 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Najee Harris contributed with nine carries for 42 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt.
Russell Wilson had three attempts, rushing for 27 yards, including a long of 19 yards, averaging 9.0 yards per carry. Cordarrelle Patterson had one rush for 12 yards.
Wilson has over 13 rushing yards in three straight games and four of his last five. Look for him to continue scrambling should he be without his No. 1 WR.
Warren dominated the snaps in the backfield, playing 67% of the snaps, while Harris had 28%. They split carries four apiece in the first half, although Warren dominated the overall touches. Harris’s 28% snap share was the lowest that he has played all season.
Warren has out-snapped Harris in three straight weeks. He also saw the red-zone work in Week 16.
Harris needs volume to get to 50-plus yards, and that might not be in store for the Steelers as they are underdogs up against a strong Chiefs run defense.
The rushing prop under has hit for RBs versus the Chiefs in 8 of their last 11 games. Harris’ opening Prizepicks line is at 43.5 yards. Yikes.
Jaylen Warren was involved in the passing game as well, catching five passes for 44 yards, showing his value as both a rusher and a receiver. His 19% Target share tied for the team lead.
Warren has at least 25 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. Take the MORE THAN on his receiving yards prop on Prizepicks which opened at 21.5 yards.
Patterson also contributed with a reception for 12 yards and a touchdown. Wilson completed 22 of his 33 pass attempts for 217 yards, tossing two touchdowns with one interception. His quarterback rating was 92.6, showing a solid performance overall.
He connected with Calvin Austin for the longest pass play, with a 44-yard reception.
Austin led the receiving corps, receiving five targets, catching 4 of them for 65 yards. He also accumulated 101 air yards, showcasing his deep-threat capability, averaging 20.20 yards per reception.
Austin was the most targeted and productive receiver, boasting a Target share of 19%, with 100-plus air yards, accounting for 51% of the team’s total air yards. Without George Pickens, Austin would have been the most reliable wide receiver for the Steelers. He leads the team with a 21% Target share in the last two weeks, with nine catches for 130 yards on 10 targets.
Wilson has tossed for at least 224.5 passing yards in four of his six games played with Pickens healthy this season. Pickens was listed as a full participant in practice on Monday suggesting that he will return to the lineup after a three-game hiatus. Pickens has gone over 62.5 receiving yards in all but one game that Wilson has started this season. Great Prizepicks pairing for Christmas day.
And 10 of the last 11 most comparable WRs to have faced the Chiefs have gone over their receiving yards prop.
Van Jefferson had three targets, catching two passes for 27 yards, with an impressive average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.33. Jefferson had a 12% Target share, with 56 air yards.
Ben Skowronek contributed with two receptions on two targets, accumulating 25 yards, including a 17-yard long reception.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth had a quiet game, recording three receptions for 16 yards, while Mike Williams caught 3 of his three targets for 24 yards. Freiermuth only had a 12% Target share, and Mike Williams contributed with a 12% Target share. Williams remained the fourth wide receiver in total snaps played.
A random dud for the Steelers TE that had been heating up the last few weeks. Usage remained strong, with 74% route participation. But with Pickens returning he will be tougher to trust even in the plus-matchup.
Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt, and Najee Harris had minimal involvement, with Heyward catching one pass for 3 yards and Pruitt having one reception for 1 yard for a red-zone touchdown.
Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. also got hurt in this game. He returned briefly in the second half before being ruled out.
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Baltimore Ravens
Hold Mark Andrews | Stock Up Isaiah Likely
Derrick Henry led the way with 24 carries for 162 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and scoring no touchdowns. His longest run went for 44 yards. Justice Hill carried the ball twice, gaining 30 yards with an average of 15.0 yards per carry, and his longest run was 25 yards. Henry caught two passes for 27 yards, with his longest reception going for 16 yards. Hill was targeted once but did not record any receptions. The Ravens pass-catching back only played 11% of the offensive snaps after suffering a concussion. Given the short week, I don’t think he will play on Christmas Day. Might suggest that Keaton Mitchell will be active in Week 17.
Lamar Jackson rushed 9 times for 22 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry, with his longest rush being 8 yards. Zay Flowers had one carry for 3 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, while Rasheen Ali ran for 2 yards on one carry with an average of 2.0 yards per carry.
Jackson completed 15 of his 23 pass attempts for 207 yards, throwing three touchdowns and one interception, earning a passer rating of 115.4.
Flowers had eight targets and caught five passes for 100 yards, including a long reception of 49 yards. His air yards were 112, with a remarkable average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.00.
Zay Flowers had the highest air yards at 112, with a Target share of 35%. His RACR was 0.89, and he posted an impressive PPR of 15.3.
Keep an eye on his health leading up to Christmas. Flowers (shoulder) was listed as a non-participant on Sunday’s practice estimate.
Mark Andrews, with six targets, caught four passes for 37 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 16 yards. His air yards totaled 68 (30% air yards share), and his aDOT was 11.3. Andrews registered 68 air yards while playing 76% snap share (26% Target share and 38% target rate per route run).
Isaiah Likely caught all 3 of his targets for 29 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 19 yards. He posted an aDOT of 7.67 and a RACR of 1.26. 66% snap share.
Likely and Andrews combined for three red-zone targets.
The two Ravens tight ends split routes pretty evenly. But it shouldn’t go unnoticed that they each saw prominent roles as receivers with Hill out of the lineup and Flowers banged up. That should stick in the next matchup versus Houston, who has allowed the highest passing TD rate in the NFL this season.
Rashod Bateman caught one pass for 14 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long of 14 yards. He also seemed unaffected by his foot injury, given he still played 81% of the snaps.
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Los Angeles Rams
Hold Blake Corum | Stock Up Kyren Williams | Hold Matthew Stafford | Stock Down Cooper Kupp
Kyren Williams led the way with 23 carries for 122 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown, with a long rush of 13 yards. Williams was targeted once and caught one pass for 7 yards, with a long reception of 7 yards.
Blake Corum had five carries for 14 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry with no touchdowns. His longest run was 7 yards.
Matthew Stafford ran 3 times but gained a negative 4 yards with a long rush of -1 yards.
Stafford completed 14 of his 19 pass attempts for 110 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, earning a passer rating of 83.2. He barely attempted anything downfield.
Puka Nacua was the top target, receiving nine targets (47% Target share) and catching 8 for 56 yards, with a long reception of 27 yards. He saw two red-zone targets but didn’t score.
Cooper Kupp caught all 3 of his targets, gaining 24 yards, with a long reception of 12 yards. He was second in air yards (32%), but it was only 22 air yards. In the last four games, Kupp has had more than three catches once. 11 catches for 133 yards and just 1 TD over that span. Still, it’s another good matchup for him in the slot versus the Cardinals in Week 17. They are one of just three teams to allow more than 50% of their fantasy points to WRs to those aligned inside. Of course, one of those other teams was also the Jets.
Tutu Atwell caught one pass for 12 yards, and his longest reception was 12 yards.
Tyler Higbee caught one pass for 11 yards, scoring one touchdown on that reception, with his long reception also being 11 yards. Both his targets came in the red zone.
Colby Parkinson and Demarcus Robinson were both targeted once but did not record any receptions. Robinson led with a 39% air yards share.
With Higbee back in the lineup, the Rams used four TEs. Gross. Hunter Long played the most snaps at 37%, while Parkinson ran the most routes.
The Rams close out the fantasy football season vs ARI.
With Nacua and Kupp healthy this season, Stafford has tossed for at least 250.5 passing yards in seven of his last 10 starts. Note that he didn’t have a fully healthy receiving corps the last time he faced the Cardinals.
The Cardinals matchup is a rematch from Week 2. Here’s what happened from the Week 3 fantasy forecast:
Matthew Stafford completed 19 of 27 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 94.1.
Blake Corum handled eight carries, picking up 28 yards (3.5 YPC) with a long run of 9 yards in the blow-out loss. 15% snap share in total garbage time.
Kyren Williams contributed 12 rushes for 25 yards (2.1 YPC), with his longest run being 9 yards. He did score a rushing touchdown. He played 79% of the snaps.
Williams also caught four passes on five targets (18.5%), contributing 27 receiving yards, including a massive 32 YAC.
Williams was listed as a sell last week and got by with the TD. I don’t think he will be as lucky with the Rams’ offense struggling to move the ball with all their injuries. It’s possible he gets enough volume to survive, but the overall offensive struggles will hurt his total output, especially with all the OL injuries. I’d sell off the high snap share and TD score.
Demarcus Robinson was Stafford’s top target, catching two of his four targets (14.8%) for 50 yards. He has the most trust of Stafford and is likely the top plug-in option for fantasy football.
Tutu Atwell saw four targets (14.8%) as well, recording three receptions for 48 yards, though he had -1 YAC.
Cooper Kupp was targeted six times (22.2%), hauling in four catches for 37 yards. Kupp left the game with an ankle injury. Only played 52% of the snaps. He is expected to miss significant time and could be a candidate for IR.
Jordan Whittington had two targets, catching both for 22 yards, with 27 YAC. 50% snap share. He is the Rams WR I have the most interest in for the long haul. Most unknown upside that you can keep on your bench for next to nothing.
Tyler Johnson saw three targets and recorded two receptions for 20 yards, including 13 YAC. He operated as the WR2.
At this point in their NFL careers, we know who Robinson and Johnson are. Whittington is in a full-time role and should take over in the slot (Kupp’s role). The rookie played the majority of his snaps from the slot in Week 2.
Colby Parkinson caught one of his two targets for a 12-yard gain. Through two games, Parkinson has the league’s lowest target rate per route run among TEs (10.8%).
New York Jets
Stock Down Braelon Allen & Garrett Wilson | Stock Up Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams | Hold Breece Hall
Breece Hall led the Jets’ rushing attack with 14 carries for 52 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, with his longest rush being 7 yards. Breece Hall caught five passes for 38 yards on six targets, with a long reception of 15 yards.
Hall dominated the backfield with 10 first-half carries. No other Jets RB had more than 1. The Jets RB1 was also targeted five times in the first half. Hall finished the game with his standard 77% snap share. The usage was very encouraging after he practiced this week in full—great matchup on deck versus Buffalo, who struggles against pass-catching RBs. Hall went for over 150 yards from scrimmage in his last matchup versus the Bills this season.
Isiah Davis had three carries for 12 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards.
Aaron Rodgers ran once for 6 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 6 yards.
Braelon Allen carried twice for 5 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry, with a long rush of 4 yards. Allen caught one pass for 5 yards, with his longest reception being 5 yards.
Allen is still the direct backup to Hall, but it’s not a 1-for-1 replacement situation. Davis and Allen each played 10 snaps (14%).
Rodgers completed 28 of 42 pass attempts for 256 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, achieving a passer rating of 91.0. He is one passing TD away from his 500th TD. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out which WR he wants to catch it.
Davante Adams was the top target with 14 targets (four in the red zone, 31% Target share), catching seven passes for 68 yards and scoring one touchdown, with a long reception of 13 yards and just under 100 air yards.
Tyler Conklin recorded five catches for 59 yards on seven targets (17% Target share), with his longest reception being 20 yards. The Rams have been a favorable matchup for tight ends all season, and Week 16 was no different.
Garrett Wilson had eight targets, catching six passes for 54 yards, with his longest reception being 19 yards. Unfortunately, he only had two targets in the first half. Four of his targets came at the very end of the game. He’s very frustrated with his role and has been vocal about it in post-game pressers. Woof.
Allen Lazard caught two passes for 20 yards on five targets, with his longest reception being 11 yards. Also had another drop in the red zone.
Jeremy Ruckert had two receptions for 12 yards on two targets, with a long reception of 7 yards.
Kenny Yeboah was targeted once but did not register a catch.
Gang Green will play @ BUF to finish the fantasy football season.
A rematch of Week 6. Here’s what happened via the Week 7 Fantasy Forecast:
In the New York Jets’ recent game versus Buffalo, quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 35 passes for 294 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers posted a 65.7% completion rate and a 99.0 passer rating, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.
Breece Hall led the ground game with 18 carries for 113 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 42 yards. Hall contributed five catches for 56 yards, including a long of 24 yards on six targets (18% Target share).
Backup running back Braelon Allen added three carries for 8 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. He did have a rushing touchdown negated by a penalty.
Snaps: Breece Hall 87%, Braelon Allen 19%.
The Week 6 snap counts were the highest difference between these two Jets running backs this season. With new OC Todd Downing calling plays in the post-Robert Saleh era, Hall was a full-blown workhorse. He didn’t find the end zone, falling short a few different times. He got stuffed on his lone carry inside the 5-yard line. He got tackled at the 7-yard line and 3-yard line
Buy. Meanwhile, this likely regulates Allen back to just handcuff status without much stand-alone appeal. And Davante Adams‘ arrival will just improve the offense overall sending Hall’s value to the moon.
Aside from a more established rushing attack, the Jets also used more motion under Downing. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jets used motion on a season-high 72.9% of plays on Monday night, gaining a season-high 7.7 yards per play when using motion.
Allen Lazard was the top target, catching six of seven passes for 114 yards, including a long reception of 52 yards, averaging 19 yards per catch. Lazard hauled in a first-half Hail Mary touchdown reception from Rodgers. Lazard also had two red-zone targets, a 21% Target share, and 108 air yards.
Eventually, Lazard’s hot TD streak is going to run out – and with the addition of Davante Adams – you’ll be happy you got off the ride. Among the Jets WRs, Lazard’s production figures to take the biggest hit.
Garrett Wilson caught eight of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.4 yards per reception with a long of 24 yards. Wilson had four red-zone targets and a 29% Target share.
Wilson was a sell-high for me last week, given that I was still concerned about Davante Adams finding his way to New York. Wilson posted back-to-back 100-yard games, so there’s still strong value attached to his brand.
Tight end Tyler Conklin had two catches for 10 yards. He only ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks and played 73% of the snaps, both of which were season lows. I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that Conklin’s bad game came when Hall was heavily involved as a receiver. TEs and RBs often compete for similar underneath targets. Throwing Adams into the fold makes Conklin completely irrelevant. He can be dropped.
Jeremy Ruckert added two catches for 7 yards, while Allen did not register a reception despite being targeted twice. Mike Williams goose-egged on his three targets. He also suffered a head injury toward the end of the game.
Cleveland Browns
Stock Up Jerome Ford | Drop Elijah Moore | Stock Down Jerry Jeudy | Hold David Njoku
Jerome Ford led the rushing attack with 11 carries for 92 yards, averaging an impressive 8.4 yards per carry, with a long rush of 66 yards and a touchdown. He only had three carries in the first half.
Ford also played a key role in the passing game, catching all 5 of his targets for 39 yards, with a long reception of 12 yards. He was a full-blown workhorse, earning an 80% snap share.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson ran 9 times for 49 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, with his longest run being 14 yards. He also had a rushing TD called back on a penalty.
Pierre Strong carried twice for 6 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 6 yards.
D’Onta Foreman had two carries for 1 yard, averaging 0.5 yards per carry, with his longest rush being 1 yard. He came in at the goal line (tilt) and scored. But it was overturned to a fumble on review. He didn’t touch the ball after that.
Ford had the remainder of red-zone touches (five).
Pierre Strong caught both of his targets, gaining 3 yards, with a longest reception of 2 yards.
Thompson-Robinson completed 20 of 34 pass attempts for 157 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 45.8.
David Njoku was the top receiving target, seeing 10 targets (32% Target share, 31% air yards share, one red-zone target) and catching 8 of them for 66 yards, with his longest reception going for 29 yards. Njoku has been DTR’s favorite target dating back to last season (leading receiver in three of the last four starts), and that stayed true versus the Bengals.
The Browns TE was targeted on 42% of his routes run.
Elijah Moore had five targets, catching two passes for 21 yards with a long reception of 15 yards.
Jerry Jeudy was targeted 3 times, catching two passes for 20 yards, with his longest reception being 15 yards. He also got banged up during the game but still played 91% of the snaps.
Needless to say, this isn’t a shocking dud from Jeudy, given the massive QB downgrade to Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Jordan Akins caught one pass for 8 yards on two targets, with his longest reception being 8 yards.
Michael Woods was targeted 3 times but did not record a reception.
Jamari Thrash was targeted once but did not record a reception.
The Browns host Miami in Week 17.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Stock Down Mike Gesicki | Buy Tee Higgins | Stock Up Chase Brown | Hold Khalil Herbert
Chase Brown led the Bengals’ rushing attack with 18 carries for 91 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 22 yards.
Brown also played a significant role in the passing game, catching three passes for 18 yards, with a long reception of 10 yards. He also had four red-zone carries, but he didn’t score. Brown is on a seven-game streak of 90+ yards from scrimmage. He played 98% of the snaps in Week 16.
Joe Burrow contributed to the ground game with two carries for 19 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per carry, with his longest run being 16 yards.
Ja’Marr Chase ran once for 7 yards, averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
Joe Burrow was efficient in the passing game, completing 23 of 30 passes for 252 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, posting a quarterback rating of 134.3.
Chase was the top target, with eight targets (29% Target share), catching six passes for 97 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception was for 32 yards.
Tee Higgins had a solid game, hauling in 8 catches for 58 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets (39% Target share, three red-zone targets). His longest reception was for 21 yards. Higgins has 69-plus receiving yards in six of his last eight games.
Andrei Iosivas caught all 3 of his targets for 53 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long reception of 32 yards.
Mike Gesicki had two receptions for 14 yards on two targets, with his longest catch being 9 yards.
Drew Sample caught one pass for 12 yards on one target, with his longest reception being 12 yards. He ran more routes than Gesicki and played 88% of the snaps with Tanner Hudson inactive.
The remaining schedule is the Broncos, who have been soft on defense the last several weeks.
The 7-8 Bengals also have a 5% chance of making the postseason…so it’s all but over for them. But don’t tell them that.
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New York Giants
Hold Malik Nabers | Stock Up Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tyrone Tracy led the team with seven carries for 26 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, with a longest run of 5 yards. Tracy caught four passes for 43 yards (11% Target share), with a touchdown and a longest reception of 16 yards. The rookie RB had another rushing touchdown that was called back on a holding call in the fourth quarter. He finished with a 63% snap share, and he saw both RB touches in the red zone.
Devin Singletary added four carries for 12 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 5 yards. Tracy out-carried Singletary 6 six 2 in the first half.
Darius Slayton had one rush for 6 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 6 yards.
Drew Lock, the quarterback, had one carry for 1 yard, averaging 1.0 yards per carry. Lock completed 22 of 39 passes for 210 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, posting a quarterback rating of 58.7.
Malik Nabers was the top receiver with 14 targets (38% Target share, two red-zone targets), catching seven passes for 68 yards. His longest reception was 21 yards to go with 113 air yards (52%).
He had another catch for 23 yards wiped away on a penalty call, and an 8-yard catch called back on holding.
Nabers’ talent is helping him overcome his bad QB play, as are the plus-matchups he has had. Luckily for him, the plus-matchups aren’t done yet.
Nabers has gone over 70.5 receiving yards twice in his last seven games, with his two highest games at 79 and 82 receiving yards, respectively.
Wan’Dale Robinson also had 12 targets (32% Target share), catching seven passes for 62 yards, with a longest reception of 15 yards. He also had three red-zone targets.
Darius Slayton recorded one reception for 21 yards, with his longest reception being 21 yards.
Jalin Hyatt caught one pass for 9 yards, with a longest reception of 9 yards.
Daniel Bellinger had one reception for 5 yards, with his longest reception being 5 yards.
Eric Gray also caught one pass for 2 yards, with a longest reception of 2 yards.
The Giants’ remaining schedule: vs IND.
It’s a great matchup, but the ceiling is certainly capped with the current QB play.
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Atlanta Falcons
Stock Up Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier
Bijan Robinson led the team with 22 carries for 94 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and scored two touchdowns with the longest run of 14 yards. Tyler Allgeier had 11 carries for 22 yards, averaging 2.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 12 yards.
Robinson has four straight games of over 88.5 rushing yards (five of the last six). Robinson added two catches for 9 yards, with a longest reception of 13 yards. Allgeier caught one pass for 9 yards, with a longest reception of 9 yards.
Ray-Ray McCloud had one rush for 8 yards, averaging 8.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 8 yards.
Michael Penix Jr., the quarterback, ran 4 times for 3 yards, averaging 0.8 yards per carry, with a longest run of 5 yards. Penix completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 73.4.
According to Next Gen Stats, Penix Jr. was aggressive in targeting downfield in the first half, throwing over 10 air yards on 43.8% of his attempts, almost 10% more often than Kirk Cousins (34.5%).
Penix Jr. averaged 2.72 seconds and 8.6 air yards per attempt in the first half compared to 2.09 seconds and 2.3 air yards per attempt in the second half. Penix did not take a sack despite being pressured 14 times (48.3% of his dropbacks).
Darnell Mooney was the leading receiver, with six targets, catching five passes for 82 yards, with a longest reception of 22 yards. He also added another DPI call that gained 30 yards for the offense. The Giants continue to be a defense to pick on against the deep ball.
Although we didn’t see any moonballs from Penix-Mooney, they connected on several chunk plays. The Falcons’ deep threat did lead the team with a 46% air yards share (73 air yards).
Drake London received eight targets (twice in the red zone, 31% Target share), catching five passes for 59 yards, with a longest reception of 19 yards. Coach Raheem Morris said London could have re-entered Sunday’s 34-7 win against the Giants after suffering a hamstring injury. Before his injury, he was targeted on 40% of his routes.
McCloud had four targets, catching three passes for 19 yards, with a longest reception of 8 yards.
Kyle Pitts added one catch for 7 yards, with a longest reception of 7 yards. His biggest “highlight” was a botched target that resulted in a Penix interception which was in the red zone. Pitts had two red-zone targets.
Charlie Woerner did not register any receptions.
The remaining Falcons’ schedule includes @ WAS.
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Detroit Lions
Stock Up Jahmyr Gibbs | Hold Sam LaPorta
Jahmyr Gibbs had a strong outing with 23 carries for 109 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and scored a touchdown with the longest run of 12 yards. The Bears have now allowed 13 of the last 14 backs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop.
Gibbs also had five targets, catching four passes for 45 yards, with a longest reception of 23 yards.
Craig Reynolds added 4 carries for 18 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 11 yards. He was the only other Lion to record a carry in the first half.
Jermar Jefferson had three carries for 12 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 5 yards.
Jameson Williams contributed one carry for 7 yards, averaging 7.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 7 yards. Jared Goff had one rush for -1 yard, with a longest run of -1 yards.
Goff completed 23 of 32 passes for 336 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, with a passer rating of 137.0. Easily, my worst call of Week 16 was fading Goff. Woof.
Williams was the top receiver, with seven targets (two red-zone targets), five catches, 143 yards, and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 82 yards. He led the Lions in air yards (83).
Amon-Ra St. Brown recorded eight targets (25% Target share), catching six passes for 70 yards, with one touchdown and a longest reception of 28 yards. St. Brown led the team with four red-zone targets.
Sam LaPorta contributed with seven targets, four catches, 43 yards, and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 21 yards. He was targeted twice in the red zone.
The Lions spread the wealth offensively. St. Brown (8), Williams (7), LaPorta (7), and Gibbs (5) all had at least five targets versus the Bears.
Sione Vaki caught two passes for 20 yards, with a longest reception of 12 yards. Both catches came in the first half.
Jermar Jefferson added one reception for 10 yards, with a longest reception of 10 yards. Craig Reynolds had one reception for 5 yards, with a longest reception of 5 yards.
Tim Patrick did not register any receptions.
Detroit plays @ SF to finish the fantasy football season. It’s probably another shootout on deck.
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Chicago Bears
Stock Up Caleb Williams | Stock Down D’Andre Swift | Stock Up Keenan Allen & D.J. Moore
Caleb Williams led the way with six carries for 34 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, with a longest run of 13 yards.
D’Andre Swift had nine carries for 20 yards, averaging just 2.2 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 7 yards. Swift had three targets, catching all three passes for 33 yards, with a longest reception of 13 yards (all in the first half). He also saw all three of the red-zone carries.
Roschon Johnson added one carry for 3 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, with a longest run of 3 yards. Swift had six carries in the first half to Johnson’s one.
D.J. Moore contributed one carry for 2 yards, averaging 2.0 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 2 yards.
Williams completed 26 of 40 passes for 334 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, with a passer rating of 107.7.
Keenan Allen was the top receiver, with 13 targets (two in the red zone, 35% Target share), nine catches, 141 yards, and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 45 yards. He also led the Bears in air yards (124).
Allen has gone over 54.5 yards in four of his last five games.
Rome Odunze caught four passes on seven targets for 77 yards, with a longest reception of 30 yards.
Moore had 10 targets (27% Target share), catching seven passes for 68 yards, with a longest reception of 25 yards. He was targeted four times in the red zone, but he did not score.
Another week of sheer volume for the Bears trio. They all nearly saw 100 air yards.
Over the last six games, Allen has led the team in targets (62, 30%), yards (453) and TDs (5). Moore leads the team in catches (43). Odunze/Allen are neck-and-neck in terms of air yards.
Cole Kmet contributed with two targets, catching both passes for 9 yards, including one red-zone touchdown, with a longest reception of 8 yards.
Gerald Everett caught one pass for 6 yards, with a longest reception of 6 yards.
In Week 17, the Bears play at home versus SEA. But this could be problematic given the Bears OL got hit with two more injuries to Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins.
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Tennessee Titans
Stock Up Chig Okonkwo & Calvin Ridley | Stock Down Tony Pollard | Stock Up Tyjae Spears
Tony Pollard led the team’s rushing attack with eight carries for 35 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. His longest rush was 17 yards. Pollard had four targets, catching two passes for 5 yards, with a longest reception of 8 yards. He also converted a two-point conversion attempt.
Tyjae Spears contributed with 10 carries for 27 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry and scoring two rushing touchdowns, with his longest rush being 11 yards. Spears was also involved in the passing game, with four targets, catching three passes for 39 yards, but did not score. His longest reception was 19 yards.
Pollard led first-half carries six versus three. But the red-zone touches favored Spears, a killer for Pollard fantasy managers.
Spears also finished with the higher snap share at 61% compared to Pollard’s 39%, which went along with all the red zone touches (six versus zero). Pollard continues to battle through ankle injuries, which showed up in this matchup.
Mason Rudolph added four carries for 3 yards, averaging just 0.8 yards per carry, with a longest run of 3 yards.
Rudolph was the primary passer, completing 23 of 34 attempts for 252 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 72.2.
Chigoziem Okonkwo led the receivers with 11 targets (33% Target share), catching nine passes for 81 yards but no touchdowns. His longest reception was 22 yards. The usage from last week carried over with Okonkwo for great success in back-to-back weeks as the team’s leader in targets.
Look for it to continue versus Jacksonville after he played 85% of the snaps in Week 16. The Jags have allowed the third-most TDs to TEs this season.
Calvin Ridley had five targets (15% Target share), catching three passes for 78 yards and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 38 yards. Ridley resumed his role as the air yards leader, seizing 106 air yards (48%).
Tyler Boyd caught 2 of his three targets for 20 yards, with a longest reception of 14 yards.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had four targets, catching two passes for 17 yards, with a red-zone touchdown and a longest reception of 11 yards.
Martin-Robinson had one target, catching one pass for 6 yards, with a longest reception of 6 yards.
Mason Kinsey also caught one pass on one target for 6 yards, with a longest reception of 6 yards.
Tony Pollard led the Tennessee Titans on the ground with 35 yards and Tyjae Spears, who scored two rushing touchdowns. Rudolph had a solid passing performance despite three interceptions, managing to throw for 252 yards and two touchdowns.
The rest of the schedule: @ JAC.
A great matchup for this offense to be usable for fantasy purposes.
It’s a rematch of their Week 14 game. Here is what I wrote after that contest per the Week 15 fantasy forecast:
The Titans’ offense, led by Will Levis, struggled in a low-output performance, with Levis completing 19 of 32 passes for 168 yards. Levis got hurt at the end of the first half, which may have impacted his second-half performance because this was such a smash spot for Levis.
Given we have all 32 teams back in action for the fantasy football playoffs, I’d stay far away from the Titans passing game.
Tony Pollard led the backfield with 21 carries for 102 yards and added two targets, catching both for 22 yards, finishing with a 14% Target share. Tyjae Spears contributed 21 rushing yards on six attempts and was targeted twice, catching one for two yards (6% Target share).
Pollard out-carried Spears 11 versus four in the first half.
In the red zone, Pollard had three rush attempts, no touchdowns, one reception on one red zone target, and no receiving touchdowns. He had a rushing TD called back on a holding call, and the drive resulted in a turnover on downs.
Spears had one red zone rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.
Pollard played 62% of the snaps to Spears’ 38%.
According to Next Gen Stats, Pollard rushed 7 times for 52 yards against stacked boxes against the Jaguars, recording his most rushing yards and yards per carry (7.4) against 8+ defenders in the box in a game this season. Pollard was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 19.0% of his carries, his lowest rate in a game this season.
Bad run out for Pollard losing out on the touchdown. Should bounce back in a great spot versus Cincy.
Calvin Ridley was the most targeted player with 12 targets (38% Target share), converting seven into 59 yards. He saw 75 air yards (44%). Ridley inside the 20-yard line was targeted three times, and caught two passes with no touchdowns.
Josh Whyle, targeted twice (6% Target share), made the most of his opportunities with 31 receiving yards. Although he barely played (five snaps).
Chig Okonkwo saw four targets (13% Target share) but managed only three catches for eight yards. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had two targets (6% Target share), catching one for 19 yards. He had his chance at a score, but it fell short in the red zone.
Indianapolis Colts
Add Anthony Richardson | Stock Up Jonathan Taylor
The Indianapolis Colts offense was heavily led by Jonathan Taylor, who delivered a dominant performance on the ground with 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Taylor was the star of the running game, carrying the ball 29 times for 218 yards, averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per carry, and scoring three touchdowns. His longest run was 70 yards.
The Titans’ defense has allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last six games played.
Anthony Richardson added 9 carries for 70 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, with his longest rush going for 29 yards. He also contributed 1 rushing touchdown. He also had a second rushing touchdown, but it was reversed upon review. JT scored on the next play.
Richardson attempted only three passes in the second half but was efficient on the ground, rushing 9 times for 70 yards and a touchdown.
Trey Sermon had eight carries for 25 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, with a longest run of 7 yards.
Tyler Goodson rushed 4 times for 22 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with a longest rush of 7 yards.
Anthony Richardson completed 7 of his 11 pass attempts for 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He finished with a passer rating of 97.2.
Richardson leads the NFL in deep passing percentage and average depth of throw. Only two QBs the Giants have faced this season have gone UNDER 190 passing yards, allowing over 200.5 passing yards per game on average. There aren’t many matchups that Richardson can take advantage of as a passer, but this one versus New York certainly is one.
Josh Downs led the receiving group with four targets (36% Target share), three receptions, 61 yards, and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 31 yards. He was targeted on 40% of his routes run.
A.D. Mitchell caught one pass on one target for 36 yards, with a longest reception of 36 yards. He did see a full-time role with Alec Pierce inactive. He also dominated the air yards share (34) on his one deep grab.
Michael Pittman was targeted 3 times (27% Target share), catching two passes for 19 yards, with a longest reception of 10 yards.
Mo Alie-Cox had two targets, catching one pass for 15 yards, with a longest reception of 15 yards.
Drew Ogletree had one target but did not record a reception.
The remaining schedule @ NYG. Fire up your Colts.
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Arizona Cardinals
Hold Kyler Murray & James Conner & Trey McBride & Marvin Harrison Jr. | Add Trey Benson
James Conner led the way in the running game, rushing for 117 yards on 15 attempts, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, and scoring 1 touchdown with a long of 40 yards. Conner led the receiving group, catching four passes for 49 yards with a long reception of 36 yards. However, Conner suffered a knee injury during Sunday’s game.
Trey Benson was inactive for this game but likely would take the RB1 role if he can play and Conner cannot next week.
Kyler Murray also contributed significantly in the run game, carrying the ball 8 times for 63 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per carry, and adding one touchdown with a long run of 20 yards.
Michael Carter had five rushes for 18 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards. Carter added five catches for 30 yards, with a long of 18 yards.
Greg Dortch had a short but efficient carry, rushing once for 8 yards with an average of 8.0 yards per carry.
Kyler Murray completed 20 of 32 pass attempts for 202 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 77.9. Murray contributed both through the air and on the ground, throwing for 202 yards and adding a rushing touchdown.
Michael Wilson caught two passes for 44 yards, with a long of 38 yards (78 air yards).
Marvin Harrison had four catches for 39 yards, with a long of 12 yards on eight targets (28% Target share). The Cardinals WR1 also led the team with 85 air yards but failed to convert his lone red-zone target into a score.
Trey McBride had three receptions for 20 yards, with a long of 11 yards. McBride’s first 12-yard catch was removed because of a penalty. He also drew a pass interference call in the end zone.
Greg Dortch caught one pass for 19 yards, with a long of 19 yards.
DeeJay Dallas had one reception for 1 yard and a red-zone touchdown, with a long of 1 yard. Elijah Higgins was targeted once but did not record any receptions.
ROS schedule: @ LAR and vs. SF. This offense should be productive in the last two weeks of the season.
The Rams matchup is a rematch from Week 2. Here’s what happened from the Week 3 fantasy forecast:
The Arizona Cardinals delivered a dominant performance in Week 2, led by an outstanding outing from quarterback Kyler Murray, who completed 17 of 21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns, posting a stellar perfect passer rating of 158.3.
James Conner was the workhorse on the ground, racking up 122 yards on 21 carries (5.8 YPC), with a long run of 22 yards and one rushing TD. Conner is on a heater, as he does when healthy. However, the Lions do represent a tough matchup on the ground for Arizona. With these older veteran RBs – with injury records – practice due diligence by seeing what they go for on the trade block.
Kyler Murray chipped in with five rushes for 59 yards (11.8 YPC), including a 26-yard long run.
Emari Demercado broke off a big run for 41 yards, totaling 46 yards on two carries.
Trey Benson struggled to find space, managing 10 yards on 11 carries (0.9 YPC).
Marvin Harrison Jr. led the way with eight targets (38.1%), catching four passes for 130 yards and TWO touchdowns. Interestingly enough, he could have scored even more points, having come up short twice in the red zone.
But needless to say, the one-week “buy-low” window for MHJ is long gone.
Trey McBride caught all six targets (29%) for 67 yards. Among TEs through two games, McBride leads the NFL in Target share (29%). Buy low.
Michael Wilson was targeted twice (9.5%) and caught both for 31 yards, adding 8 YAC.
Elijah Higgins caught his only target for 18 yards for a TD.
Greg Dortch was targeted twice (9.5%) and caught both for 11 yards, adding 11 YAC.
Trey Benson and James Conner each had one target, with Conner catching his for 2 yards.
Carolina Panthers
Stock Up Chuba Hubbard | Add Jalen Coker | Stock Up Adam Thielen
Chuba Hubbard had a strong outing, rushing 25 times for 152 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns with a long run of 28 yards. Hubbard caught four passes for 13 yards, with a long reception of 6 yards.
Bryce Young contributed to the rushing attack as well, running 5 times for 68 yards, averaging 13.6 yards per carry, and scoring one touchdown with a long of 34 yards.
Raheem Blackshear added 3 carries for 13 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, with a long of 5 yards. Deven Thompkin had one rush for 9 yards, averaging 9.0 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards. Mike Boone added a short carry, running for 1 yard on one attempt with a long of 1 yard. David Moore did not record any rushing yards despite his one attempt.
Young completed 17 of 26 passes for 158 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a passer rating of 107.5.
Adam Thielen was the top receiver, catching five passes for 43 yards on a 25% Target share (six), with one red-zone touchdown and a long reception of 20 yards. Moore had three targets, catching two passes for 39 yards, with one red-zone touchdown and a long of 21 yards.
Tommy Tremble contributed with three receptions for 32 yards but did not score, with a long reception of 15 yards.
Dan Chisena had one reception for 23 yards on two targets with a long of 23 yards.
Jalen Coker caught two passes for 8 yards, with a long of 4 yards on five targets (21% Target share). He picked up a DPI and caught a TD but was ruled out of bounds. That was one of his two red-zone targets.
Coming out of a big win, Carolina will face the Buccaneers. It’s a pretty good matchup for a quarterback who is on the rise.
Here is the recap of that matchup from the Week 14 Fantasy Forecast:
Bryce Young finished 26-of-46 for 298 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, though his completion percentage (56.5%) left room for improvement. Young also added 17 rushing yards and a touchdown on three carries, utilizing his mobility effectively in key moments.
Chuba Hubbard led the backfield with 12 carries for 43 yards but struggled to break off significant runs, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Hubbard also lost a critical fumble in overtime.
Jonathon Brooks chipped in with six carries for 18 yards, and Young contributed with an additional 17 yards on the ground.
The backfield snaps were 79% for Hubbard and 21% for Brooks. The rookie was used more as a receiver, though, catching all three of his targets for 23 yards. Hubbard was not targeted despite dominating the routes out of the backfield. Also, Brooks saw three red-zone carries to Hubbard’s solo attempt, in addition to two of his targets also coming in the red zone.
He started the drive late in the third quarter after a Buccaneers turnover set up Carolina with an immediate red-zone drive. Brooks had five of his nine touches in the game on this five-play series.
Not great for Hubbard’s rest-of-season outlook that Brooks is starting to eat into some of his high-value opportunities with his playing time increasing.
In the passing game, Adam Thielen was once again the go-to target, catching 8 of 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown (24% Target share, 112 air yards) on two red-zone targets.
He made plays in critical situations, including a 25-yard reception. Tommy Tremble stepped up as a reliable secondary option, catching 5 of 8 targets for 77 yards, including a long 38-yard gain while playing 100% of the snaps (eight targets). Xavier Legette added 53 yards on four receptions (eight targets, 19% Target share, 90 air yards, and two red-zone targets), while David Moore chipped in with 40 yards on five catches (nine targets, 112 air yards).
The Panthers struggled to establish their run game, and the offensive line’s inefficiency limited Hubbard’s and Brooks’ opportunities. However, Young showed growth, and Thielen’s consistency remains a bright spot for the team moving forward.
Something I have noticed with Young in the last few weeks is that he is heavily targeting his WRs in the red zone. Last four weeks, Young ranks third in the NFL in red-zone pass attempts per game. He only had two TDs.
Washington Commanders
Stock Up Terry McLaurin | Stock Down Brian Robinson Jr.
Jayden Daniels was the team’s leading rusher with nine carries for 81 yards, averaging an impressive 9.0 yards per carry, with a long run of 29 yards.
Brian Robinson carried the ball 10 times for 24 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards. B-Rob was also involved in the passing game, catching 2 of his three targets for 17 yards, with a long of 9 yards. He played 63% of the snaps but went 0-for-3 rushing in the red zone.
But it was overall a terrible game for Robinson, given that he fumbled twice. Eight of the last 11 RBs to face Atlanta have gone over their rushing yards projection. I like him to rebound in Week 17.
Jeremy McNichols had four targets, catching four passes for 15 yards, with a long of 10 yards. Chris Rodriguez had three carries for 5 yards, averaging 1.7 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards.
Robinson split carries with C-Rod eight versus three in the first half. Jeremy McNichols added 2 carries for 3 yards, averaging 1.5 yards per carry, with a long of 5 yards.
Daniels was the primary quarterback, completing 24 of 39 passes for 258 yards, throwing five touchdowns and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 99.1.
Olamide Zaccheaus led the receiving group with eight targets, catching five passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns (two red-zone targets). His longest reception went for 49 yards as he led the team with a 22% Target share.
Terry McLaurin caught 5 of his six targets for 60 yards and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 32 yards.
Dyami Brown had five targets, catching four passes for 56 yards, with a long of 51 yards. He led the Commanders with 81 air yards (29%) as the WR2 in the offense.
Jamison Crowder caught 2 of his four targets for 15 yards and two red-zone touchdowns, with a long of 9 yards.
Luke McCaffrey caught one pass for 13 yards on three targets, with a long of 13 yards.
Zach Ertz caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets, with a long of 12 yards.
John Bates did not record any receptions.
Great matchup on deck versus the Falcons. So much so that you could play one of these deeper players like Dyami Brown in deeper formats. Brown has 30-plus receiving yards in three straight games.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Down Jalen Hurts & DeVonta Smith | Hold A.J. Brown | Add Kenneth Gainwell
Jalen Hurts was knocked out with a concussion, while Kenny Pickett took over the reins as quarterback, throwing for 143 yards and a touchdown.
Hurts completed 1 of 4 passes for 11 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions, for a passer rating of 39.6. Pickett completed 14 of 24 passes for 143 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and posted a passer rating of 72.0.
Saquon Barkley was the standout rusher for the Eagles, carrying the ball 29 times for 150 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns, with a long of 68 yards. Barkley did not record any receptions.
Hurts added three rushes for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per carry, with a long of 22 yards before exiting with his concussion. Pickett had three rushes for 13 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, with a long of 8 yards.
Hurts is in the concussion protocol, and his status is TBD for Week 17.
Kenneth Gainwell carried the ball 4 times for 7 yards, averaging 1.8 yards per carry, with a long of 3 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, after starting the game with 109 rushing yards and two touchdowns on his first seven carries, Saquon Barkley finished by gaining just 41 rush yards on his final 22 carries
Barkley gained 99 of his 109 rush yards before contact on his first seven carries and was not hit behind the line of scrimmage once. On his final 22 carries, Barkley gained -4 rushing yards before contact and was hit behind the line of scrimmage 13 times (59.1%). The Commanders started the game by utilizing single-high safety shells on just 3 of 12 plays (25.0%) but adjusted after Jalen Hurts exited the game, aligning in a single-high shell on 40 of the final 59 plays (67.8%). Barkley gained just 28 yards and had just two successful runs on his 18 carries against single-high safety shells, compared to 117 yards and five successful runs on nine carries against two-high shells.
A.J. Brown led the receiving corps with 15 targets (three in the red zone), catching eight passes for 97 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 45 yards. AJB totaled 18 targets when you include the three pass interference call he drew from Marshon Lattimore in coverage. Brown totaled over 150 air yards. (68% air yards share) on a whopping 60% Target share.
Pickett knew exactly where to throw the ball.
Per Next Gen Stats, Lattimore lined up against A.J. Brown on 23 of his first 25 routes before Lattimore exited the game with 7:44 remaining in the fourth quarter (92.0%), 12 of which came in press coverage (47.8%).
DeVonta Smith caught 6 of his eight targets (32% Target share) for 51 yards, with a long of 13 yards. He also had a bad drop.
Kenneth Gainwell caught one pass for 6 yards, with a long of 6 yards.
In Week 17, Philly plays the Cowboys. It is a rematch of Week 10:
Jalen Hurts showcased his efficiency, completing 14 of 20 passes for 202 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception, achieving a passer rating of 115 and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Kenny Pickett stepped in briefly, completing 1 of 2 passes for 5 yards.
On the ground, Saquon Barkley led the Eagles with 14 carries for 66 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, though he did not reach the end zone. Hurts contributed significantly with 56 rushing yards on seven attempts, scoring two touchdowns, with a long run of 24 yards. Will Shipley added 34 yards on nine carries, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 30 yards on seven attempts.
Gainwell had four red-zone rushing attempts compared to three for Barkley.
Saquon Barkley: 35 snaps, 51% snap share
Kenneth Gainwell: 22 snaps, 32% snap share
Will Shipley: 11 snaps, 16% snap share (mostly garbage time)In the receiving game, A.J. Brown led with 109 yards on five catches from seven targets, boasting an impressive 21.8 yards per reception, including a 44-yard catch and 37 yards after the catch. Dominated with a 35% Target share, gaining 122 air yards, which made up 54% of the team’s air yards.
Jahan Dotson made a single big play for 27 yards. Dallas Goedert caught two of his three targets for 25 yards and a touchdown, with a long reception of 14 yards. Goedert only ran a route on 60% of dropbacks on his first game back, as he did get some medical attention-two red-zone targets.
DeVonta Smith added 14 yards on two catches from 3 targets, while Saquon Barkley added 12 receiving yards from his lone target. Smith would have likely scored on a deep ball from Hurts had he not been held on the play and posted a 15% Target share with 40 air yards, equating to 18% of air yards.
Gainwell and Johnny Wilson each contributed a reception, with Wilson adding a touchdown on his 5-yard catch. Wilson ran a route on 17% of dropbacks.
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Kenneth Walker | Stock Up Jaxon Smith-Njigba & DK Metcalf
Kenneth Walker III was the lead rusher for the Seahawks, carrying the ball 8 times for 31 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, with a long run of 11 yards. He had all the RB carries in the first half, but Seattle couldn’t get the ground game going versus Minnesota.
Walker III also had a big role in the passing game, catching all 8 of his targets for 28 yards (19% Target share), with a long of 8 yards. However, he got hurt again and was doubtful to return in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. Here we go again.
Kenny McIntosh had three attempts for 14 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards.
Zach Charbonnet had one carry for -1 yards, averaging -1.0 yards per carry.
McIntosh caught one pass for 15 yards, with a long reception of 15 yards. Charbonnet caught two passes for 14 yards, with a long reception of 13 yards.
Geno Smith also contributed in the run game with one carry for 8 yards, averaging 8.0 yards per carry, with a long of 8 yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba rushed once for 5 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long run of 5 yards.
Julian Love added 2 yards on a single carry, averaging 2.0 yards per carry, with a long of 2 yards.
Geno Smith had a strong performance, completing 31 of 43 passes for 314 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. He finished the game with a passer rating of 96.5.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team in receiving with 12 targets, catching eight passes for 95 yards, one touchdown, and a long of 25 yards. JSN commanded a 48% air yards share (156 air yards) and a 29% Target share.
DK Metcalf caught three passes on seven targets for 57 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 25 yards. All his production came in the first half. Ergo, the squeaky wheel got the grease. But it is still a modest performance at best. He was still heavily out-targeted by JSN despite seeing 114 air yards.
Noah Fant had six targets, catching three passes for 50 yards with a long reception of 18 yards.
Tyler Lockett caught two passes for 19 yards, with a long reception of 17 yards.
Pharoah Brown caught one pass for 17 yards, with a long of 17 yards.
A.J. Barner caught two passes for 13 yards, with a long reception of 9 yards.
Jake Bobo caught one pass for 6 yards, with a long reception of 6 yards.
The Seahawks wrap up the fantasy season @ CHI.
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Minnesota Vikings
Stock Up Aaron Jones & T.J. Hockenson
Aaron Jones was the lead rusher, carrying the ball 18 times for 67 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards. Jones added three receptions on five targets, totaling 26 yards, with a long of 15 yards. He played 82% of the snaps but didn’t score on his lone red-zone attempt. With Green Bay coming up, my touchdown lock of the week will undoubtedly be for Jones to hit paydirt against his former team.
Cam Akers had one rush for 3 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry, with a long of 3 yards.
Sam Darnold contributed as a rusher with five attempts, gaining 11 yards, averaging 2.2 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards.
Darnold led the passing game, completing 22 of 35 passes for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He finished with a passer rating of 112.3.
Justin Jefferson was the standout receiver, catching 10 passes on 13 targets for 144 yards and two touchdowns, with a long reception of 39 yards. 38% Target share and 57% air yards share (155).
Jordan Addison had eight targets (24% Target share), catching five passes for 35 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long reception of 12 yards.
T.J. Hockenson had five targets (15% Target share), catching two passes for 27 yards with a long reception of 19 yards. Josh Oliver was targeted once but did not record a reception. Hockenson’s usage was still strong, with a 70% snap rate.
C.J. Ham caught one pass for 9 yards, with a long of 9 yards.
Jalen Nailor had two targets, catching one pass for 5 yards, with a long of 5 yards.
Minnesota is vs GB in Week 17. This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend. Hold your Vikings tight.
This is a rematch of Week 4. Here’s what happened before:
Sam Darnold completed 20 of 28 passes for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, earning a passer rating of 123.4. Per Next Gen Stats, Sam Darnold is the first quarterback to win and have two or more passing touchdowns in each of his first four career starts for a team in the Super Bowl era.
Aaron Jones had a whopping 22 carries for 93 yards but didn’t score in his revenge game. Jones caught four of five targets for 46 yards (18% Target share). Ty Chandler only had three carries for five yards.
It was a clear effort to get Jones more usage against his old team, as the ex-Packers RB played an 82% snap share. Chandler played 12% of the snaps, which was very different than the previous three weeks. The “sell-high” window on Jones is open, but it’s just a move to get out before he breaks down as the season progresses. It’s not a MUST-SELL by any means, but just put him on the block to potentially upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Jones is pacing well over 300 touches (20 per game). He’s never had more than 285 touches in a season (2019)-just something to be aware of. Don’t drop Chandler.
I’d bet we see this usage narrow back to the first three weeks sooner rather than later, although a Week 6 bye week suggests that Jones could get some steady run in Week 5 against a suspect Jets run defense.
Sam Darnold rushed seven times for 15 yards. Justin Jefferson caught six of eight targets for 85 yards and one touchdown (29% Target share). Jordan Addison caught three of four targets for 72 yards and one receiving touchdown (14% Target share). Addison carried once for seven yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He also returned to his normal role, running a route on 76% of the dropbacks
Jalen Nailor caught one of two targets for 31 yards (7% Target share). He can be dropped as he fell to third in the Vikings WR pecking order with just a 32% route participation. Johnny Mundt caught two of two targets for 15 yards (7% Target share). Josh Oliver caught two of two targets for 10 yards (7% Target share).
New England Patriots
Hold Hunter Henry | Stock Down Rhamondre Stevenson | Add Drake Maye
Rhamondre Stevenson was the leading rusher for the Patriots, carrying the ball 12 times for 60 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards and one red-zone touchdown. However, he also lost a fumble.
Drake Maye rushed 6 times for 30 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with a long of 13 yards. Take the over on Maye’s rushing yards for Week 17.
Antonio Gibson had 10 rushes for 28 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson had one reception for 13 yards, with a long of 13 yards.
Antonio Gibson caught two passes for 8 yards, with a long of 4 yards.
The final snaps were 59% for Gibson and 44% for Stevenson.
I know this final snap count will undoubtedly want those to bury Stevenson, but don’t get this twisted. Gibson also fumbled in this game and got stuffed at the goal line for a three-yard loss. Technically, Stevenson might be in the doghouse for two fumbles, given that he failed to corral a pitch from Maye that resulted in a Bills defensive touchdown.
DeMario Douglas contributed one rush for 6 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards.
Dante Pettis had one rush for 2 yards, averaging 2.0 yards per carry, with a long of 2 yards.
Maye was the quarterback for the Patriots, completing 22 of 36 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a passer rating of 90.2.
Maye has thrown for 200-plus yards in eight out of 11 games played this season and in five of his last six games.
Kayshon Boutte was the leading receiver, catching five passes on nine targets (22% Target share) for 95 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 31 yards. He continues to make downfield splash plays (43% air yards share 100-plus air yards), and we could see him hold a huge role in that capacity in Week 17 versus the Chargers pass defense that has struggled against deep passes.
Austin Hooper had five targets, catching four passes for 55 yards with a long reception of 26 yards.
Hunter Henry caught four passes on nine targets (28% Target share, three in the red zone) for 39 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 12 yards. He remains the most reliable Patriots pass-catching option.
DeMario Douglas had five targets, catching four passes for 33 yards, with a long reception of 13 yards. He also caught a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but it was overturned on review.
Kendrick Bourne caught two passes on two targets for 18 yards, with a long reception of 9 yards. Javon Baker was targeted once but did not record a reception. However, his usage was slightly different as he played more than fellow rookie Ja’Lynn Polk.
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Buffalo Bills
Hold Dalton Kincaid & James Cook | Add Keon Coleman & Ray Davis | Stock Down Amari Cooper
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills relied heavily on their running game, with James Cook leading the charge. Cook carried the ball 11 times for 100 yards, averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per carry, including a long run of 46 yards. Quarterback Josh Allen contributed to the rushing efforts with six carries for 30 yards (5.0 yards per carry), while Ty Johnson and Ray Davis added 30 and 12 rushing yards, respectively.
Johnson out-snapped Cook as they preferred the former in more pass-catching situations.
Passing-wise, Allen was 16 of 29 for 154 yards and one touchdown, though he did throw one interception. His passing rating for the game was 67.3. He was dealing with a hand injury issue that influenced his accuracy passing.
James Cook was also a significant factor in the passing game, catching three passes for 26 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills’ wide receiver corps also played a big role in their offensive production.
Mack Hollins caught two passes for 25 yards on three targets, and Khalil Shakir made two catches for 22 yards on six targets. Shakir had some very uncharacteristic drops because he totaled 104 air yards (33%) in what could have been a much more productive game. Expect him to bounce back big versus the Jets’ slot-funnel defense in Week 17.
Tight end Dawson Knox caught two passes for 22 yards as well.
Other contributions came from Keon Coleman, who grabbed a 17-yard reception on 59 air yards, Ray Davis, who caught a pass for 17 yards, and Dalton Kincaid, who registered four catches for 15 yards on seven targets. Kincaid led the team with five first-half targets and ended with a 26% Target share. He also had a red-zone target but didn’t score.
For the second straight game, the Bills tight end was heavily involved when he was on the field. He only played 34% of the snaps (20). His target rate was 54%, but he only ran 13 routes.
Amari Cooper had two targets and one catch for 10 yards. He remained the WR4 in total snaps played behind Shakir, Hollins, and Coleman.
Buffalo plays the Jets in Week 17.
A rematch of Week 6. Here’s what happened via the Week 7 Fantasy Forecast:
In the Buffalo Bills’ recent game versus the Jets, quarterback Josh Allen was highly efficient, completing 19 of 25 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Allen’s accuracy was evident, with a 76% completion rate, resulting in a 127.9 passer rating and an average of 8.6 yards per attempt. He also contributed on the ground with nine carries for 18 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Rookie Ray Davis was the workhorse, carrying the ball 20 times for 97 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, with a long of 15 yards. He looked like he couldn’t be tackled. The rookie also earned six red-zone carries but fell short of a touchdown.
Ty Johnson had four carries for 34 yards, averaging an impressive 8.5 yards per carry, including a 13-yard run.
Snaps: Ray Davis 58%, Ty Johnson 36%.
James Cook was ruled out right before game time, putting Davis into the starting role.
Davis was also a key receiving target out of the backfield, catching all three of his targets for 55 yards, including a long reception of 42 yards on a broken off-script play from Allen.
Given how well both Buffalo RBs played, we could see less of a workload for Cook when he returns from injury.
Per Next Gen Stats, Davis forced five missed tackles across 23 offensive touches.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid caught six of seven targets for 51 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per reception, with a long catch of 15 yards. 30% Target share while leading Buffalo in routes run.
Curtis Samuel was productive with three receptions for 44 yards, averaging 14.7 yards per catch, with a long of 38 yards. 18% Target share while leading the team in air yards.
Keon Coleman added four catches for 32 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per reception. He finished second in routes run.
Khail Shakir made the most of his two catches, gaining 19 yards with a long of 10 yards. Coming into the game not fully healthy, Shakir was limited. He only played 38% of the snaps. As he gets healthier, he should reclaim his status as the Bills No. 1 WR.
Dawson Knox chipped in with one catch for 12 yards for a touchdown. Mack Hollins had the other touchdown score (two red-zone targets).
Las Vegas Raiders
Stock Up Brock Bowers | Stock Down Jakobi Meyers | Hold Alexander Mattison | Add Ameer Abdullah
The Raiders’ rushing offense was led by Ameer Abdullah, who had seven carries for 38 yards, averaging a solid 5.4 yards per carry, and scored one touchdown. His longest run went for 10 yards. Alexander Mattison had a rough day, carrying the ball 12 times for just 27 yards, averaging a mere 2.3 yards per attempt, but he did find the end zone with a 6-yard rushing touchdown.
Mattison led in the first half with six carries. He also led the backfield with a 57% snap share. Abdullah played 43% of the snaps. Each RB had a red-zone carry.
Aidan O’Connell contributed in the run game as well, with seven carries for 12 yards, averaging 1.7 yards per carry. However, Tre Tucker struggled with a negative run, gaining -8 yards on his only attempt.
O’Connell was the team’s primary quarterback, completing 24 of 38 passes for 257 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 82.9. Despite a solid yardage total, the offense was unable to capitalize on the passing opportunities, with no touchdowns through the air.
The Raiders’ top receiver was Brock Bowers, who caught 11 passes for 99 yards on 13 targets (38% Target share), but he was unable to find the end zone. Bowers needs 10 yards in the next two games to break Mike Ditka’s NFL record of 1,076 receiving yards by a rookie tight end.
Abdullah, who was effective on the ground, also contributed through the air, catching five passes for 47 yards. Jakobi Meyers hauled in 2 catches for 41 yards on five targets, seeing one in the red zone, while Tre Tucker also had two receptions for 41 yards.
Alexander Mattison added four receptions for 29 yards on seven targets. Both the Raiders RBs were hyper-targeted, accumulating six-plus targets and a 33% or higher target rate. They both can be FLEXED in full PPR formats.
Michael Mayer had one target but did not record a catch. Terrace Marshall also had one target without a reception.
The Raiders have a great playoff matchup in Week 17: @ NO. Be happy that Aidan O’Connell returned.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Stock Up Brian Thomas Jr. | Stock Up Tank Bigsby | Stock Down Travis Etienne Jr. | Stock Down Brenton Strange
The Jaguars’ running game was led by Tank Bigsby, who rushed 12 times for 50 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. His longest run went for 10 yards. Travis Etienne contributed with nine carries for 22 yards, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry, but he was unable to find the end zone. The Jaguars also used Bigsby and Etienne in a committee approach, with Bigsby being the more effective rusher on the day.
Both guys saw seven carries for 27 yards in the first half, but Bigsby scored. However, he cashed in his TD before he fumbled at the end of the second quarter.
Etienne finished with the higher snap share at 52% to Bigsby’s 28%. But Bigsby dominated the red-zone touches three to zero. Given the upcoming matchup versus a reeling Titans run defense, Bigsby looks to be in the driver’s seat to lead this backfield in Week 17.
Mac Jones had a solid day under center, completing 25 of 39 passes for 247 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 90.4. He distributed the ball efficiently, with multiple players involved in the passing attack. Jones managed to guide the Jaguars’ offense down the field with a focus on short-to-medium throws.
The top target for the Jaguars was Brian Thomas Jr., who was targeted 13 times and made nine receptions for 132 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception was 62 yards, showcasing his big-play ability. He commanded a 61% air yards share (140 air yards) and a 37% Target share.
In the last five games…BTJ has averaged nearly 22 PPR points, a 31% Target share, a 43% air yards share, and 96-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.
Thomas Jr. recorded his eighth game with 60-plus receiving yards and at least one receiving touchdown (Next Gen Stats), tying him with Randy Moss.
Parker Washington also had a productive day, catching six passes for 54 yards, though he was unable to find the end zone.
Brenton Strange caught two passes for 22 yards, and Travis Etienne was a key option out of the backfield, recording two catches for 15 yards. The Jags tight end only played 51% of the snaps.
His role was dramatically reduced from the week before. He was not in the full-time Evan Engram role, spitting routes with Luke Farrell near dead even. Strange also lost a fumble.
Other receivers included Luke Farrell (2 catches, 8 yards), D’Ernest Johnson (1 catch, 8 yards), Josiah Deguara (1 catch, 4 yards), and Devin Duvernay (1 catch, 3 yards). Tank Bigsby also caught one pass for 1 yard, and Josh Reynolds had a target but did not record a reception.
Overall, the Jaguars’ offense was effective, with Jones leading the charge through the air and Bigsby powering the ground game. The Jaguars’ ability to spread the ball around, particularly through the air with Thomas and Washington, kept the opposing defense off-balance.
The Jags play the Titans in Week 17. The Titans’ defense has allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last six games played.
It’s a rematch of their Week 14 game. Here is what I wrote after that contest per the Week 15 fantasy forecast:
Mac Jones completed 23 of 31 passes for 220 yards but threw two interceptions.
Tank Bigsby led the ground game with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Travis Etienne contributed on the ground with 20 yards and through the air with 50 yards on four receptions, including an impressive 21-yard catch.
In the red zone, Bigsby had two rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Etienne Jr. had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.
Bigsby out-carried Etienne 6 versus one in the first half. Final snaps were 53% for Bigsby and 47% for Etienne. Etienne ran the most routes, but Bigsby dominated the early down usage.
I think this means we can “trust” Bigsby in the next few matchups. In Weeks 15-16, it’s the Jets/Raiders plus Colts in Week 18 (reason to hold onto this backfield and not completely abandon hope).
Brian Thomas Jr. was the top receiver, hauling in 8 of 12 targets for 86 yards (40% Target share and 39% target rate per route run). The rookie wide receiver dominated with 113 air yards (74% air yards share) with two red-zone targets. Nobody else had more than 15 air yards.
He is proving his worth as a “QB-proof” asset in recent weeks.
Last three games, BTJ has a 29% Target share, 44% air yards share and 81-plus receiving yards per game.
Evan Engram added 33 receiving yards, while Bigsby also caught one pass for seven yards.
Parker Washington caught both of his targets for 15 yards (7.5 yards per catch).
Devin Duvernay managed three receptions on three targets but totaled only 8 yards (2.7 yards per catch).
Brenton Strange, the tight end, had one target, which he converted into a 21-yard reception.
San Francisco 49ers
Buy Jauan Jennings | Add Patrick Taylor
The 49ers’ offense was led by quarterback Brock Purdy, who completed 26 of 40 pass attempts for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, posting a solid passer rating of 95.1. He was effective in directing the offense, contributing both through the air and in the ground game.
In the rushing department, Purdy also added 26 yards on four carries, averaging a strong 6.5 yards per carry, but did not find the end zone. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel contributed 25 yards on five carries, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Patrick Taylor was given a lighter workload for a lead 49ers RB with eight carries for 24 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry. He led the backfield with four carries in the first half. The snap share was elite at 80% ,but it didn’t translate into fantasy production as he went 0-for-3 on his red-zone rushes for a potential TD. He could be in line for more bellcow duties if Isaac Guerendo can’t play in Week 17.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk also had a successful rush, gaining 6 yards on a 1-carry attempt.
Through the air, the 49ers’ receiving corps was led by tight end George Kittle, who caught eight passes for 106 yards on nine targets (26% Target share).
Despite not scoring, Kittle was a significant weapon in the passing game, with his longest reception going for 28 yards.
Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one and 45-plus in 11 straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. Over 54.5 yards in 10 of his last 12 games.
Deebo Samuel was also a major contributor, catching seven passes for 96 yards and a red-zone touchdown on nine targets. His longest reception was 27 yards, and he also contributed to the rushing game. Still, talk about a little too late for Samuel. First time he has gone over 22 yards in six weeks.
Jauan Jennings had a quieter game but still had a notable impact with four receptions for 51 yards on six targets. But he was still the team’s air yards leader (81, 45%) and just fell victim to the other WRs in the offense popping off instead. He should easily bounce back versus the Lions.
Ricky Pearsall and Juszczyk each contributed to the passing game, with the rookie catching four passes for 37 yards and Juszczyk adding a catch for 20 yards on three targets. Pearsall had two red-zone targets but didn’t find the end zone.
The 49ers finish the fantasy football season with the Lions.
Go over on Brock Purdy‘s passing yards projection this week. He has been bad in three of his last five. But he has exceeded this number in 8 of his 14 games this season (57%) – seven of 10 with Kittle, Samuel, and Jennings all in the lineup (70%).
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Miami Dolphins
Stock Up Tyreek Hill | Buy De’Von Achane | Stock Up Jonnu Smith | Add Raheem Mostert & Malik Washington
The Miami Dolphins featured an impressive offensive performance in Week 16, led by a strong rushing attack and efficient passing from Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins’ rushing game was powered by De’Von Achane, who had 17 carries for 120 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, including a long run of 50 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Raheem Mostert contributed with eight carries for 31 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, though he did not score.
Achane carried the ball nine times in the first half to Mostert’s five rushes. Achane had two red-zone carries to Mostert’s one.
Jeff Wilson added 12 yards on two carries, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt, while Alec Ingold ran once for 4 yards. Jaylen Wright did not play.
Tua Tagovailoa also had a couple of runs but was stopped for a loss of 1 yard on two attempts.
Tagovailoa went 22 for 34 passing, accumulating 215 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 92.2. Despite not throwing multiple touchdowns, his accuracy and control allowed the Dolphins to sustain drives throughout the game.
De’Von Achane was heavily involved in the passing game as well, catching six passes for 70 yards, tying for a team-high 23% Target share (seven targets).
According to Next Gen Stats, Achane became the first player to have a game with 120-plus rushing yards and 70-plus receiving yards since Christian McCaffrey in Week 17, 2022, at Las Vegas.
Achane gained a career-high 191 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches in the Dolphins Week 16 win over the 49ers, generating 89 rushing yards after contact, the 2nd-most of his career.
Jonnu Smith also had a solid day with six receptions for 62 yards on six targets.
Tyreek Hill, the team’s top wide receiver, caught three passes for 29 yards and a touchdown, with his longest reception going for 24 yards. Hill commanded nearly half the team’s total air yards (95, 48%) and tied for the team-high with a 23% Target share.
Malik Washington had three receptions for 28 yards, while Raheem Mostert contributed two catches for 15 yards. Other contributors included River Cracraft (1 reception for 6 yards) and Durham Smythe (1 reception for 5 yards).
Washington played a huge role in the offense, playing 87% of the snaps, the most among Dolphins WRs. The rookie also led the team in routes run.
Miami will play @ CLE to round out the fantasy football season.
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Dallas Cowboys
Stock Down Rico Dowdle | Sell CeeDee Lamb & Cooper Rush | Stock Up Jake Ferguson
The Dallas Cowboys’ offense in Week 16 was guided by quarterback Cooper Rush, who completed 26 of 35 passes for 292 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Rush’s efficient performance resulted in a passer rating of 108.3, showcasing his ability to distribute the ball across various receiving options effectively.
On the ground, the Cowboys’ rushing attack was spread among several players. Running back Rico Dowdle led the team with 13 carries for 23 yards, averaging a brutal 1.8 yards per carry, with his longest rush going for 6 yards. He had an elite snap share at 77%, but he was stifled by the Buccaneers’ fierce run defense.
Wide receiver KaVontae Turpin added a strong contribution, rushing 3 times for 11 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, with his longest rush being 12 yards. Ezekiel Elliott added a short but effective rush, gaining 1 yard on his only carry, but he found the end zone with a rushing touchdown. Terrible run out for Dowdle managers, given that Zeke played three snaps but stole the goal-line touchdown.
Rush also added three carries for a total of -4 yards, reflecting a few struggles with the ground game.
In the passing game, the Cowboys were led by wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who caught seven passes for 105 yards but did not find the end zone. Lamb’s longest reception came in at 52 yards, showcasing his big-play ability. But he barely played in the second half as he continues to battle through an ongoing shoulder injury. Lamb finished with a 55% snap share as he played just six offensive snaps in the 2nd half.
Brandin Cooks also contributed with three receptions for 48 yards, leading the Boys in WR snaps played.
Tight end Jake Ferguson and Dowdle each made an impact, with Ferguson pulling in 6 catches for 40 yards on a team-high nine targets (27% Target share), while Dowdle caught three passes for 28 yards. Ferguson was hyper-targeted, earning a target on 41% of his routes run.
The Cowboys also saw solid contributions from other receiving options: wide receiver Ryan Flournoy caught three passes for 41 yards, and Jalen Tolbert had two receptions for 20 yards, including a red-zone touchdown. Tolbert also left the game at the end of the first half with an injury, which limited him to a 28% snap share.
Turpin, Schoonmaker, and Luepke were also involved in the passing attack but were limited in their contributions. Turpin was targeted twice with one reception for 7 yards. If Lamb/Tolbert are out next week, Turpin is an interesting player to consider, given how often the team looks to scheme him touches.
The rest of the schedule is as follows: @ PHI. It’s a bad matchup in Week 17, as the Eagles will be a tough matchup for Dallas to overcome. Rush struggled in their first matchup.
Note that all his games with Rush back in 2022 weren’t great (similar to this season). It’s going to be up and down, and I’m fearful of being on the wrong side of the Rush experience come fantasy football championships. He could destroy you against the Eagles’ strong defense if he duds out.
As noted, Philly plays the Cowboys in Week 17. It is a rematch of Week 10:
Cooper Rush struggled to find rhythm in the passing game, completing 13 of 23 passes for only 45 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions, averaging just 2 yards per attempt and finishing with a passer rating of 61.7. Trey Lance made a brief appearance, completing 4 of 6 passes for 21 yards, but threw one interception, leading to a passer rating of 32.6.
Rush had zero desire to push the ball downfield. According to Next Gen Stats, Rush did not complete a pass more than 10 yards downfield in his first start of the season (0/6). The Cowboys are the 7th team to not have a completion over 10 air yards in a game this season. Rush averaged a 2.43-second time to throw, the quickest by a Cowboys quarterback in a game this season.
On the ground, Rico Dowdle led the Cowboys’ rushing attack with 12 carries for 53 yards, averaging a steady 4.4 yards per carry with a long run of 19 yards: two red-zone rushing attempts but no TDs.
Rico Dowdle had ten carries in the first half.
Ezekiel Elliott contributed 22 yards on six carries, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt, while Trey Lance added 17 yards on three scrambles, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
Zeke had two red-zone rushing attempts, fumbling one that was recovered by the Eagles.
- Rico Dowdle: 31 snaps, 52% snap share
- Hunter Luepke: 16 snaps, 27% snap share
- Ezekiel Elliott: 13 snaps, 22% snap share
In the receiving game, Jake Ferguson was the most productive, catching four of his five targets for 24 yards, with an average of 6 yards per reception and a long of 10 yards, adding 22 yards after the catch. He claimed a 17% Target share with 0 air yards. The dump-off KING.
CeeDee Lamb was targeted 10 times but managed only six receptions for 21 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per catch. Led with a 34% Target share and 55 air yards, equaling 28% of air yards. Two red-zone targets, one reception, and zero touchdowns – considering he lost one in the sun. Woof. Lamb had seven targets in the first half. Jalen Tolbert had three catches on five targets for 14 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per reception. Tolbert ran a route on 97% of dropbacks. Posted a 17% Target share with 72 air yards, making up 37% of air yards. Jalen Brooks and Rico Dowdle contributed minimally, with Brooks catching one pass for 4 yards and Dowdle making three catches for just 3 yards out of the backfield.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stock Down Cade Otton | Stock Up Rachaad White & Bucky Irving & Mike Evans | Add Jalen McMillan
Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 31 of 43 passes for 303 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, earning a passer rating of 97.3.
On the ground, the Buccaneers had a solid rushing game, with Bucky Irving leading the way. Irving rushed 16 times for 68 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and scored one touchdown, with his longest rush going for 15 yards.
Mayfield also contributed to the running game, adding 42 yards on three carries, including a long of 18 yards. Sterling Shepard ran once for 14 yards, and Rachaad White added 3 carries for 10 yards.
In the receiving game, Mike Evans was the top target for Mayfield. Evans caught five passes for 69 yards but did not find the end zone. He tied for a team-high with eight targets (19%) while posting 130 air yards (31%) as a constant downfield threat.
Evans needs to average 92 yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. Give me those OVERS.
So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in five straight games.
Jalen McMillan played a key role as well, catching five passes for 57 yards and scoring one touchdown. He went over 100 air yards on his seven targets. The rookie wide receiver had another long target in the end zone, which was almost a touchdown, but the defensive back came away with the interception.
Regardless, it’s been three straight strong games for McMillan. 21% Target share, 4 TD, and 64 receiving yards per game. 14 catches for 191 yards and 4 TDS.
The running back, Rachaad White was heavily involved in the passing game, catching seven passes for 50 yards on eight targets, though he was kept out of the end zone.
Irving out-snapped White 57% to 50% and out-carried him 8 to 3 in the first half. Irving also drew two red-zone touches to White’s one.
Palmer and Parker Durham also made contributions, with Palmer catching two passes for 31 yards and Durham adding five receptions for 29 yards on seven targets. Durham stepped in 1-for-1 into the Cade Otton role, playing 93% of the snaps.
Irving added three receptions for 24 yards, and Shepard had one reception for 20 yards before exiting with a hamstring injury. Ryan Miller made a touchdown reception, catching two passes for 17 yards, and Rakim Jarrett added one reception for 6 yards. Miller played a larger role after Shepard left the game.
The final matchup remaining for Tampa Bay is the Panthers.
Here is the recap of that matchup from the Week 14 Fantasy Forecast:
The Buccaneers leaned heavily on their run game in this contest, with Bucky Irving delivering a standout performance. He carried the ball 25 times for an impressive 152 yards and a touchdown, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
Rachaad White also contributed with 11 carries for 76 yards, including a 38-yard burst, but failed to find the end zone. Irving led the first half with nine carries compared to White’s five, setting the tone early. He also was questionable at one point to return with an injury.
Irving finished with a 54% snap share to White’s 52% snap rate. The rookie RB also added three catches for 33 yards on three targets and seven red-zone touches to White’s four red-zone attempts. Bucky Irving is a league winner.
Bucky’s 28 touches and 54% snap share was the highest he has had all season in a game that White was active in. Irving has taken over at least as the 1A in the Buccaneers backfield.
Through the air, Baker Mayfield went 21-of-33 for 235 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Mayfield connected most often with Mike Evans, who hauled in 8 of his 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown, including a long 27-yard reception (35% Target share, 146 air yards).
Sterling Shepard added 42 yards on four catches (three red-zone targets), and Irving showcased his versatility with 33 receiving yards on three receptions (21% Target share). Jalen McMillan was second in WR snaps at 74%, finishing with two catches for 25 yards on three targets. He has the role we want, but it just hasn’t been translated into fantasy points quite yet. Still a sneaky buy-low.
Cade Otton dominated with seven targets (21% Target share, two red-zone looks) but finished with just four catches for 20 yards. Since Mike Evans‘ return, Otton has just a 16% Target share in the last two games.
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