Fantasy Football Forecast: Waiver Wire & Lineup Advice (Week 15)

Welcome back, everybody! NFL Week 14 is officially in the books, and that means we are onto the fantasy football playoffs! As we head into Week 15, my focus is shifting to rest-of-season outlooks for players, especially now that trade deadlines have passed. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays, player props, start/sit decisions, and who to stash, drop, or add off the waiver wire.

My goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.

I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.

This will also be the final edition featuring trade advice and graphics, as trade deadlines are now over. Moving forward, we’ll shift our attention to optimizing rosters and leveraging platforms like PrizePicks and other player-focused strategies.

Prizepicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly! And you’ll get a freebie pick by going MORE THAN on Patrick Mahomes to throw for 0.5 pass yards!

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Week 15.

And just so I can hit it up at the top, here are the top DSTs for the rest of the season based on schedules to consider: Falcons, Colts, Bengals, and Jaguars.

The forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun slate. Let’s go!

• More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Week 15 Fantasy Football Forecast

Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below:

Green Bay Packers

Stock Up Tucker Kraft | Stock Down Jayden Reed | Buy Christian Watson | Add Romeo Doubs | Sell Jordan Love

Jordan Love delivered a solid performance for the Packers, completing 12 of 20 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown, boasting a passer rating of 111.7.

Christian Watson shined as the primary target, catching 4 of 7 passes for 114 yards, representing a 35% Target share and dominating the air yards (37% target rate and 47% air yards share). He also saw two red-zone targets but didn’t catch either of them (he drew a pass interference on one).

Watson (again) played a full-time role with Romeo Doubs sidelined due to a concussion

In the last six games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (31), air yards (593), and receiving yards (407) – even after a doughnut in Week 12. What’s curious is he has zero TDs over this span. That won’t last.

Tucker Kraft contributed a red-zone touchdown among his three receptions for 41 yards. Targeted twice overall in the red zone.

Dontayvion Wicks hauled in 4 of his five targets (two red-zone targets) for 49 yards, providing additional reliability in the passing game.

Unfortunately, I would expect his role to reduce when Doubs returns in Week 15.

However, Jayden Reed frustrated fantasy managers by dropping his lone target, resulting in zero contributions to the stat sheet. He drew a pass interference call but was otherwise not involved. He only played 50% of the snaps (58% route run rate).

On the ground, Josh Jacobs powered the offense with 18 carries for 66 yards and three rushing touchdowns (6 red-zone carries), dominating red-zone opportunities. He actually had a fourth TD on a reception from Love, but it was called back because of an OPI penalty.

Chris Brooks is emerging as the Packers’ secondary back, with a 28% snap share compared to Emmanuel Wilson’s limited three offensive snaps. Brooks out-snapped Wilson for the sixth straight game.

Love added 23 yards on four scrambles, while the rest of the backfield saw minimal usage. The Packers relied on explosive plays and a balanced approach to secure offensive success.

The remaining schedule: @ SEA vs. NO, and @ MIN. They have the worst schedule remaining for the rest of the season for QBs and a bottom-five schedule for fantasy WRs.
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Detroit Lions

Stock Up Jameson Williams & David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs | Hold Sam LaPorta | Drop Jared Goff

The Detroit Lions showcased a strong offensive performance in Week 14, driven by Jared Goff‘s efficiency (32/41 for 283 yards and three touchdowns) despite one interception. Goff had a rushing TD called back.

David Montgomery contributed 14 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 15 carries for 43 yards but struggled to gain momentum.

The Detroit Lions’ running backs were active in the receiving game. David Montgomery caught all five of his targets for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility, while Jahmyr Gibbs hauled in all six of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown, effectively contributing to the passing game.

In the red zone, Montgomery had five rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Gibbs totaled three rush attempts, no rushing touchdowns, two receptions on two red zone targets, and one receiving touchdown.

Carries were a near split in the first half. Gibbs ended up winning the snap battle 56% to 45%.

They have played 10 games this season when they BOTH have scored.

Jameson Williams led the receiving corps with 80 yards on five catches (eight targets and 20% Target share). Williams led in total air yards as well (69, 31% air yards share).

Tim Patrick excelled with two touchdowns on six receptions, and Sam LaPorta maintained consistency with five catches for 54 yards, leading the team in routes (25% Target share). Patrick had two red-zone targets and caught both for two touchdowns. Patrick maintains strong usage as the Lions’ No. 3 WR.

Sam LaPorta had three red-zone targets and caught two for no touchdowns. But the underwhelming usage of LaPorta continues. However, the increased red-zone looks are helping him a ton. Still concerned about trusting him if he doesn’t score.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a quieter game by his standards, catching five of six targets for 43 yards. His 8.6 yards per reception and reliable presence over the middle remain pivotal, though he didn’t find the end zone in this outing. One red-zone rush attempt, no touchdowns.

Detroit plays vs vs BUF, @ CHI and @ SF to finish the season. No. 1 schedule for fantasy RBs.

Detroit passed their first scheduling quirk by playing outdoors for the first time all season a month ago in Green Bay.

Still, it could get dicey in Chicago in Week 16 if it’s cold and/or bad weather. At least the Bears’ run defense has struggled, putting Detroit in the driver’s seat even in the fantasy football playoffs.

Chicago hardly slowed down the Lions’ rushing attack on Thanksgiving, even if neither RB scored.

Although the box score doesn’t tell the whole story, specifically in the red zone. According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions offense struggled on the ground in the red zone, generating -0.1 yards before contact per carry, being contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 57.1% of their seven rushes, and fumbling the ball late in the second quarter. When not in the red zone, they averaged 2.5 yards before contact per carry and were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 30.4% of carries.

Note that the Lions’ passing game ROS doesn’t have the same soft schedule. For the rest of the season, their quarterbacks have the 32nd-ranked schedule. I think a sneaky “landmine” move might be to drop Goff.
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New York Jets

Stock Down Braelon Allen | Buy Garrett Wilson | Stock Up Aaron Rodgers | Add Tyler Conklin

Aaron Rodgers led the New York Jets to a commanding offensive display, completing 27 of 39 passes for 339 yards and a touchdown against a depleted Miami Dolphins secondary.

Garrett Wilson dominated with 11 targets, catching seven passes for 114 yards (16.3 yards per catch) and 56 yards after the catch, showcasing his ability to create plays. He was targeted twice in the red zone and caught one with no touchdowns.

Davante Adams was equally impressive, reeling in 9 of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown, including a long reception of 34 yards. He was targeted twice in the red zone and caught one for a touchdown. He did get banged up late in the game.

Adams and Wilson accounted for 56% of the targets, emphasizing their integral roles in the passing game.

And finally, we have arrived at the playoffs with the Jets’ passing game in a great spot.

Jaguars and Rams over the next two games. Buy the passing game.

Gang Green will play @ JAC, vs LAR and @ BUF to finish the fantasy football season.

The Jets have the No. 4 schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season.

In the backfield, rookie running back Isaiah Davis was efficient, rushing 10 times for 40 yards (4.0 YPC) and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 27 yards on six targets.

Braelon Allen added 11 carries for 43 yards and contributed 38 yards on four receptions from 5 targets.

Davis had two rush attempts, one rushing touchdown in the red zone, one reception on two red zone targets, and no receiving touchdowns. Allen had two red zone rushing attempts but failed to score.

In the first half, the carries were a split 5 to 4 in favor of Allen. The final snaps were 54% for Allen and 53% for Davis. A full 50/50 split without Breece Hall active.

I still slightly prefer Allen if Hall misses another week, but it will be a crowded mess for another week, even in a positive matchup against the Jaguars. I will say that Davis might be the better option in full PPR formats, given his increased usage the last two weeks as a receiver out of the backfield (32% target rate per route run in Week 14).

Tyler Conklin chipped in at tight end with 33 yards on three receptions, while Allen Lazard had a single catch for 18 yards. Conklin was targeted once in the red zone but had no receptions or touchdowns.

The Jaguars are one of the worst defenses against TEs, so you could do worse than Conklin in Week 15.

The Jets’ offense showed versatility, utilizing both the ground and aerial attacks effectively, with Rodgers spreading the ball across multiple playmakers.
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Miami Dolphins

Stock Up Jaylen Waddle | Buy De’Von Achane | Hold Jonnu Smith | Add Jaylen Wright

The Miami Dolphins overcame a sluggish rushing attack and leaned heavily on Tua Tagovailoa‘s passing efficiency.

Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns.

Tyreek Hill was electric, catching 10 of 14 targets for 115 yards and a red-zone touchdown, commanding a 30% Target share.

Jaylen Waddle contributed nine catches on 12 targets for 99 yards. He was targeted three times in the red zone and caught all three with no touchdowns. So close.

From the jump, Waddle/Hill were heavily involved, with each seeing five catches for 61 yards in the first half.

This performance was exactly what we saw from the Dolphins last season, with the concentrated targets on the team’s top two WRs. They combined for a 92% air yards share, with each guy going over 100 air yards.

De’Von Achane briefly left the game with an injury but returned to score a rushing touchdown on 14 carries for 24 yards while adding six catches for 45 yards. The speedster still logged an 83% snap share.

He had a big run, but it came back on a holding call.

In the red zone, Achane had eight rush attempts, one rushing touchdown, one reception on two red zone targets, and no receiving touchdowns.

Jaylen Wright had one red zone reception on one red zone target but no touchdowns.

Wright only played 19% of the snaps, with just two carries for 7 yards.

Tight end Jonnu Smith was instrumental in overtime, accounting for all 44 of his receiving yards during the extra period, including a clutch game-winning red-zone touchdown. His routes did dip slightly in this game, which can be attributed to his lack of involvement.

Despite the down game, Smith has led the Dolphins in catches/yards in the last six weeks.

Malik Washington also seems to have fully supplanted Odell Beckham Jr. as the WR3 in the offense. Beckham’s role has dipped in recent weeks, and as a result, he is LESS than his receiving yards prop in three straight games. Take the LESS THAN 9.5 receiving yards for OBJ in Week 15 on Prizepicks.

Achane’s receiving efforts and Hill’s explosiveness kept the offense alive despite a lackluster rushing attack outside of Achane’s scoring contribution. The backfield rotation, including Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson (Raheem Mostert was inactive), provided minimal gains on the ground as Miami relied on their passing game for offensive output.

The Dolphins have the No. 3 schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season. Miami will play @ HOU, vs. SF, and @ CLE.
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Atlanta Falcons

Stock Down Kyle Pitts & Kirk Cousins | Stock Up Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier | Add Falcons DST

The Atlanta Falcons suffered from turnovers but still posted solid offensive performances despite losing the game.

Kirk Cousins went 23-for-37 for 344 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. My prediction of his yardage came true, but the TDs were nowhere to be found.

Bijan Robinson was the focal point of the backfield, rushing 22 times for 92 yards (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown. In the red zone, Bijan had seven rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, one reception on one red zone target, and no receiving touchdowns.

Tyler Allgeier complemented him with nine carries for 63 yards (7.0 YPC), scoring one his lone red-zone carry from the six-yard line.

Bijan out-carried TA 13 to six in the first half. He also totaled an 85% snap share compared to an 18% snap share for Allgeier. Robinson contributed to the passing game, catching both of his targets for 9 yards, showing his versatility.

Darnell Mooney led the air attack with seven targets (19%), converting six catches into 142 yards, including a 49-yard bomb. He had over 100 yards in the first half and went over 100 air yards (37% air-yard share).

Ray-Ray McCloud was heavily involved, commanding 11 targets (30% Target share, two red-zone targets) and converting them into eight receptions for 98 yards, gaining 69 yards after the catch.

McCloud has 95-plus yards in back-to-back games.

Drake London earned 10 targets (27%), managing five catches for 70 yards (one red-zone target).

Kyle Pitts and Charlie Woerner combined for seven targets (six for Pitts), though Pitts only managed one 14-yard reception, while Woerner added 11 yards.

In the red zone, Pitts was targeted twice but had no receptions or touchdowns. In the last two plays of the game, Pitts had an end-zone target broken up and dropped on a would-be touchdown catch. Pain.

He also finished with 83 air yards. More Pain.

Pitts’ snaps came back up to 78% as he ran a route on 68% of the dropbacks. But did it matter? Nope.

With us approaching the fantasy football playoffs, Pitts’s up-and-down play cannot be trusted. Two catches in the last three games.

The remaining Falcons schedule includes @ LV vs. NYG and @ WAS, the No. 1 schedule for fantasy quarterbacks and No. 3 for RBs.

I know things look bad for Atlanta offensively, but if they ever want to finish strong, it’s over these next two games against LV/NYG.

It’s a great playoff schedule. If Cousins gets dropped (most likely), add him, presuming he’s not completely benched in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. All indications are that the Falcons will continue to roll with Cousins as their starter, even after four straight poor outings.

Atlanta also has a good schedule for fantasy DSTs for the rest of the season. The first two weeks of the fantasy postseason are a chef’s kiss as they face the Raiders and Giants.
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Minnesota Vikings

Buy Justin Jefferson | Stock Up Aaron Jones & Jordan Addison | Add Cam Akers

The Minnesota Vikings lit up the field with a standout performance led by Sam Darnold, who posted a staggering 347 passing yards and five touchdowns on just 28 attempts, achieving a 78.6% completion rate and a near-perfect passer rating.

The Minnesota Vikings’ backfield was led by Aaron Jones, who logged 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.6 yards per carry with a long run of 15 yards. Cam Akers supplemented the ground game with five carries for 37 yards, averaging an impressive 7.4 yards per carry, including a 25-yard breakaway. Jones had three red-zone rush attempts, one rushing touchdown, one reception on one red-zone target, and no receiving touchdowns. He also got stuffed on a direct snap from the 1-yard line.

Akers had one red-zone rush attempt, no touchdowns, and no targets.

Jones out-carried Akers five versus one in the first half. The final snaps were 63% for Jones and 32% for Akers.

Boosted usage for Jones compared to last week.

Jordan Addison: 12 targets (43% Target share), eight receptions, 133 yards, and three touchdowns. He led in air yards and scored on routes of 49, 25, and 12 yards. 136 air yards.

Justin Jefferson: 7 targets (25%), seven receptions, 132 yards, two touchdowns. Explosive plays included a 52-yard score and a 30-yard TD. 132 air yards.

T.J. Hockenson: 5 targets (18%), four receptions, 45 yards, highlighted by critical third-down conversions. He was not targeted in the first half.

Josh Oliver returned to the lineup, but that didn’t influence Hock’s role. Still very elite at 76% route participation.

Jordan Addison: Five red-zone targets, caught all five for two touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson: Two red-zone targets, caught both for a touchdown.

T.J. Hockenson: Two red-zone targets, caught one for no touchdowns.

Josh Oliver: 2 targets, one reception for 26 yards on a seam route.

Aaron Jones: 2 targets, two receptions for 11 yards, used effectively in short-yardage situations.

The Vikings’ offense revolved around Darnold’s efficiency (5 TDs, 157.9 rating) and explosive plays from their wideouts.

Addison was obviously the biggest surprise, and I find it ironic his MONSTER game comes after his DUI hearing was pushed until 2025. After pleading not guilty, he has a pretrial conference hearing scheduled for Jan. 9, 2025, per ESPN.

He can just focus on balling, and man did he focus on BALLING in Week 14.

Minnesota is at home versus CHI then it’s @ SEA and vs GB. This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend. Hold your Vikings tight.
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Carolina Panthers

Add Bryce Young | Stock Up Chuba Hubbard | Buy Xavier Legette | Stock Up Adam Thielen

Bryce Young completed 19 of 34 passes for 191 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Young rushed for 29 yards on seven carries, adding mobility to Carolina’s offense.

Chuba Hubbard carried the ball 26 times for 92 yards and a touchdown, also catching four of five targets for 15 yards (11% Target share). He bogarted eight touches in the red zone—97% snap share.

Jonathon Brooks had one carry for -3 yards before leaving the game with a knee injury (he re-tore his ACL). Raheem Blackshear also got hurt in this game, leaving the Panthers extremely thin at RB.

Horrible turnout for Brooks, who just got back to football. This locks in Hubbard as a bell cow and fringe fantasy RB1 the rest of the way and probably into next season as well.

Adam Thielen led with 11 targets (33% Target share), catching nine for 102 yards. He also posted 100-plus air yards (35% air yards share) while being targeted on 37% of his routes. Thielen is doing what he did at the start of last season.

Xavier Legette, who commanded 10 targets (24% and 128 air yards), made a huge catch on the final drive but also dropped a potential touchdown that could have been the game-winner at the end of the drive. The rookie left a lot of production on the table in what has been a very up-and-down season.

Even so, he has 39-plus yards in four straight games, including six-plus targets in three straight.

Tight end Tommy Tremble contributed a touchdown, catching one of two red-zone targets. Ja’Tavion Sanders ran more routes in his return but only saw one target. Tremble played more overall snaps.

I have noticed with Young in the last few weeks that he is heavily targeting his WRs in the red zone. In the last five weeks, Young ranks fifth in the NFL in red-zone pass attempts per game. He only had three TDs. Every other QB has eight or more passing TDs.

Coming out of another close loss, Carolina will face the Cowboys (on a short week), Cardinals, and Buccaneers. It’s a pretty good playoff schedule for a QB who has been on the rise.
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Philadelphia Eagles

Drop Dallas Goedert | Add Grant Calcaterra | Stock Up DeVonta Smith

Jalen Hurts completed 14 of 21 passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns (66.7% completion rate, 110.8 passer rating). Hurts added 59 rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries, including a 35-yard run. Saquon Barkley led the ground attack with 124 yards on 20 carries (6.2 YPC).

In the red zone, Barkley had four rush attempts but no touchdowns (he did score a two-point conversion). Gainwell had one reception on one red zone target.

In the passing game, A.J. Brown commanded a 21% Target share (4 targets), catching all for 43 yards. DeVonta Smith saw six targets (31%), catching 4 for 37 yards and a red-zone touchdown. Grant Calcaterra contributed 16 yards on three targets, also scoring inside the red zone. He another target wiped away on a penalty. The Eagles TE is very TD-dependent, but he plays a full-time role (75% route participation). The Eagles also have the No. 1 schedule for fantasy TEs for the rest of the season.

Barkley and Gainwell combined for three catches for 7 yards.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Eagles have the No.2-ranked schedule for RBs.

From Weeks 15-17, Philly plays the Steelers, Commanders, and Cowboys.
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New Orleans Saints

Stock Down Alvin Kamara | Add Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Juwan Johnson | Add Kendre Miller

Derek Carr completed 20 of 31 attempts for 219 yards with one touchdown and one interception (64.5% completion rate). Jake Haener attempted one pass but didn’t contribute positively, losing a yard on his lone scramble.

Carr is expected to miss the next several weeks after fracturing his hand in the team’s win over the Giants.

Alvin Kamara led the backfield with 17 carries but managed only 44 yards (2.6 YPC), with his longest run going for 16 yards. Kendre Miller added 32 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries (3.2 YPC), while Jamaal Williams handled three attempts for five yards.

Miller handled a red-zone carry for his touchdown but had limited usage in the passing game. Kamara went scoreless on his lone red-zone attempt. He did prove valuable as a receiving back, catching all 5 of his targets for 35 yards.

Kamara’s snaps stayed high at 72%, with Miller seeing just 26%. However, the coaches definitely must have been encouraged by Miller’s performance after his long layoff.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Led all receivers in targets with 8 (23% Target share), catching four passes for 51 yards (with one DPI call and 126 air yards).

Juwan Johnson: Caught 4 of 5 targets for 50 yards and a wide-open red zone touchdown, posting a solid 16% Target share. He had impressive usage, running a route on 77% of the dropbacks.

The Saints also have the No. 3 schedule for fantasy TEs for the rest of the season.

These are the only dart-throw pieces you can even entertain the idea of adding this week. But with Carr on the shelf, it’s hardly a confident bet to make.

Foster Moreau: Efficiently hauled in both of his targets for 40 yards, averaging 20 yards per catch.

Jamaal Williams caught both of his targets for 10 yards, and Kevin Austin Jr. snagged one reception for 5 yards despite 84 air yards.

The remaining schedule is Commanders, Packers and Raiders to round out the season. Admittedly, the playoff schedule is very nice but the QB question marks bring serious concerns.
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New York Giants

Sell Malik Nabers | Stock Up Tyrone Tracy Jr.

The New York Giants’ offensive struggles continued as quarterback Drew Lock completed just 21 of 49 passes for 227 yards and an interception, along with 59 rushing yards on five carries. Lock also got hurt but will start in Week 15 if he is healthy enough to play.

Lock was 6-for-19 passing in the first half for 52 yards. Consider it a miracle he got to 200 passing yards.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the backfield with 16 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown (two red-zone carries) while also seeing significant work in the passing game with 10 targets, catching five for 38 yards. Tracy led the Giants with a 33% target rate with an impressive 22% Target share.

If Lock is QB, expect Tracy to get fed with dump-offs. The only way Lock was able to move the ball was through quick passes.

Tracy plays nearly all the snaps after seeing an 83% snap rate on Sunday.

Devin Singletary was notably limited to just two carries for 8 yards (all in the first half).

Malik Nabers paced the receivers with 79 yards on five receptions (10 targets, 22% Target share, 129 air yards), while tight end Daniel Bellinger added 45 yards on five catches (seven targets).

The majority of Nabers’ production came in the fourth quarter, failing to exceed 40 yards in the first three quarters.

Bellinger took on a solid role after the team put Theo Johnson on IR. The veteran tight end ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks.

Wan’Dale Robinson managed 38 yards on four catches despite seeing 11 targets (24% Target share). The “Drew Lock” effect strikes again.

The Giants remaining schedule: vs BAL, @ ATL and vs IND. It’s a great schedule for WRs, but the ceiling is certainly capped with the current QB play.

Tracy Jr. contributed to the receiving game with 38 yards on five catches. Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt had minimal impact, with Hyatt failing to secure either of his two targets.

The Giants lost out on 10 potential points against the Saints having both a field goal and punt return TD nullified on penalties.
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Jacksonville Jaguars

Stock Up Brian Thomas Jr. | Stock Up Tank Bigsby | Stock Down Travis Etienne Jr.

Matt Jones completed 23 of 31 passes for 220 yards but threw two interceptions.

Tank Bigsby led the ground game with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Travis Etienne contributed on the ground with 20 yards and through the air with 50 yards on four receptions, including an impressive 21-yard catch.

In the red zone, Bigsby had two rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Etienne Jr. had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Bigsby out-carried Etienne 6 versus one in the first half. Final snaps were 53% for Bigsby and 47% for Etienne. Etienne ran the most routes, but Bigsby dominated the early down usage.

I think this means we can “trust” Bigsby in the next few matchups. In Weeks 15-16, it’s the Jets/Raiders plus Colts in Week 18 (reason to hold onto this backfield and not completely abandon hope).

Brian Thomas Jr. was the top receiver, hauling in 8 of 12 targets for 86 yards (40% Target share and 39% target rate per route run). The rookie wide receiver dominated with 113 air yards (74% air yards share) with two red-zone targets. Nobody else had more than 15 air yards.

He is proving his worth as a “QB-proof” asset in recent weeks.

Last three games, BTJ has a 29% Target share, 44% air yards share and 81-plus receiving yards per game.

Evan Engram added 33 receiving yards, while Bigsby also caught one pass for seven yards.

Parker Washington caught both of his targets for 15 yards (7.5 yards per catch).

Devin Duvernay managed three receptions on three targets but totaled only 8 yards (2.7 yards per catch).

Brenton Strange, the tight end, had one target, which he converted into a 21-yard reception.
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Tennessee Titans

Drop Will Levis | Hold Calvin Ridley & Tony Pollard

The Titans’ offense, led by Will Levis, struggled in a low-output performance, with Levis completing 19 of 32 passes for 168 yards. Levis got hurt at the end of the first half, which may have impacted his second-half performance because this was such a smash spot for Levis.

Given we have all 32 teams back in action for the fantasy football playoffs, I’d stay far away from the Titans passing game.

Tony Pollard led the backfield with 21 carries for 102 yards and added two targets, catching both for 22 yards, finishing with a 14% Target share. Tyjae Spears contributed 21 rushing yards on six attempts and was targeted twice, catching one for two yards (6% Target share).

Pollard out-carried Spears 11 versus four in the first half.

In the red zone, Pollard had three rush attempts, no touchdowns, one reception on one red zone target, and no receiving touchdowns. He had a rushing TD called back on a holding call, and the drive resulted in a turnover on downs.

Spears had one red zone rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Pollard played 62% of the snaps to Spears’ 38%.

According to Next Gen Stats, Pollard rushed 7 times for 52 yards against stacked boxes against the Jaguars, recording his most rushing yards and yards per carry (7.4) against 8+ defenders in the box in a game this season. Pollard was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 19.0% of his carries, his lowest rate in a game this season.

Bad run out for Pollard losing out on the touchdown. Should bounce back in a great spot versus Cincy.

Calvin Ridley was the most targeted player with 12 targets (38% Target share), converting seven into 59 yards. He saw 75 air yards (44%). Ridley inside the 20-yard line was targeted three times, and caught two passes with no touchdowns.

Josh Whyle, targeted twice (6% Target share), made the most of his opportunities with 31 receiving yards. Although he barely played (five snaps).

Chig Okonkwo saw four targets (13% Target share) but managed only three catches for eight yards. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had two targets (6% Target share), catching one for 19 yards. He had his chance at a score, but it fell short in the red zone.

Tyler Boyd, Bryce Oliver, and Nick Vannett also contributed with low volume.

The rest of the schedule: vs. CIN, @ IND, and @ JAC. The No. 1 schedule for fantasy QBs.
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Las Vegas Raiders

Stock Down Brock Bowers & Jakobi Meyers | Add Sincere McCormick

The Raiders’ offense struggled to find rhythm in the loss to the Buccaneers. Aidan O’Connell completed 11 of 19 passes for 104 yards and an interception (57.9% completion) before being carted off the field with an injury. He is feared to have a serious knee injury, which will sideline him for the foreseeable future.

Desmond Ridder relieved him with 12 completions on 18 attempts for 101 yards (66.7%).

Sincere McCormick led the rushing attack with 15 carries for 78 yards (5.2 YPC, long of 29), securing 63% of backfield snaps. He was the only Raiders RB to have a carry in the first half.

O’Connell had six rushes, including one touchdown, while Brittain Bowers and Ameer Abdullah contributed minimally.

McCormick had five red-zone rush attempts with no rushing touchdowns, one reception on one red-zone target, and no receiving touchdowns. Abdullah: 1 red-zone rush attempt, no rushing touchdowns, one reception on one red-zone target, no receiving touchdowns.

The former UTSA standout played 61% of the snaps to Abdullah’s 39%.

Michael Mayer led the team in targets (9, 26%) and receptions (7 for 68 yards) with a lone red-zone catch.

Jakobi Meyers earned 10 targets (29%) with seven receptions for 67 yards, leading with 85 air yards share (32%).

Brock Bowers saw six targets (17%), catching 3 for 49 yards (16.3 YPR). Bowers was targeted once in the red zone but failed to convert. He was held in check after his eruption game on Black Friday. Impressive nonetheless, he was somewhat productive on such little volume.

He still played the majority of snaps so I wouldn’t read too much into his lackluster game.

Sincere McCormick added two catches for 11 yards on three targets (7% share). He had another target and catch wiped away on a blindside block penalty.

Tre Tucker (5 targets, two catches, 7 yards, 77 air yards) and Terrace Marshall Jr. (1 catch on one target) rounded out the receiving efforts.

Tucker had one red zone target but didn’t find the end zone.

The real issue with the Raiders’ rest of the season is the QB situation. We are down to Desmond Ridder starting games for this team. Not ideal in any way shape or form.

Ridder entered the fourth quarter, where he compiled all of his stats. Meyers (6) and Mayer (5) were his most-targeted players. Mayer saw four of his five targets in total garbage time. Do not chase.

On Ridder’s second snap, he fumbled. On his third pass attempt, he was intercepted, and it was overturned on replay.

I’d expect a full dose of McCormick in an effort for the Raiders to keep the ball away from Ridder at all costs.

The Raiders have a good playoff schedule for RBs. The remaining Las Vegas schedule is vs ATL, vs JAC and @ NO. It’s the fifth-best schedule for fantasy RBs.

You could do worse than adding a Vegas RB like Alexander Mattison or Sincere McCormick.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stock Down Cade Otton | Stock Up Rachaad White | Stock Down Bucky Irving | Add Jalen McMillan & Sean Tucker

In the Buccaneers’ Week 14 game, Baker Mayfield completed 18 of 29 passes for 295 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, achieving a passer rating of 101.9. Rachaad White led the backfield with 17 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions on three targets for 19 yards (13% Target share). White had two red-zone rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, one reception on one red-zone target, plus 1 receiving touchdown.

Sean Tucker impressed with 47 rushing yards on three carries (15.7 yards per carry).

Bucky Irving left the game with a back injury after four carries for three yards, catching one pass for 15 yards on one target (4% Target share). If Irving’s injury is serious, Tucker could get some strong run as the RB2 in this backfield.

Cade Otton led the team in receiving yards, catching three of four targets for 70 yards (14% Target share) with a red-zone target.

Otton’s targets have dipped to 15% since Evans return, but he was able to efficiently get there in a plus-matchup. Next week will be tougher against the Chargers.

Jared McMillan stood out with two touchdowns (one red-zone TD) on four catches for 59 yards, commanding a 25% Target share (seven targets). He was involved early on, with five targets in the first half with another DPI picked up through the course of the game. The rookie WR led the Buccaneers in routes run (tied with Mike Evans).

It’s about time McMillan showed up. I listed him as a sneaky-buy low last week, and he finally hit.

Sterling Shepard had six targets (21%), catching four for 63 yards.

Mike Evans also added four receptions for 69 yards on five targets (17% Target share). The Buccaneers No. 1 WR led with a 31% air yards share (67 air yards).

The three teams remaining for Tampa Bay are the Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers.
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Cleveland Browns

Add Elijah Moore | Stock Up Jerry Jeudy | Hold David Njoku | Add Cedric Tillman | Sell Nick Chubb

Jameis Winston completed 24 of 41 passes for 212 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. His efficiency was hindered by a 58.5% completion rate and a low 5.2 yards per attempt.

Nick Chubb: Led the ground game with 11 carries for 48 yards (4.4 YPC).

Jerome Ford: Managed 10 carries and a red-zone tout but only gained 28 yards (2.8 YPC). Ford contributed 19 receiving yards on three catches from 4 targets, adding versatility in the passing game.

Chubb was out carried by Ford in the first half (five versus six) as the long-time veteran managed just eight yards total. He had a 19-yard rush in the second half but was otherwise ineffective.

The final snaps were 56% for Ford and 36% for Chubb. Because the Browns were in a negative game script, Ford got the vast majority of playing time. Although the usage in the first half when the game was closer is concerning for Chubb’s ROS outlook.

The Chiefs are next. The schedule does get softer against the Bengals and Dolphins to finish the season.

Winston: Added 28 rushing yards on four attempts, including a long gain of 11 yards.

Jerry Jeudy: Was the top wideout, catching 5 of 6 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. Jeudy claimed an 18% Target share. Jeudy’s touchdown came on a deep 35-yard strike.

Do you know who this year’s Nico Collins might be? Jerry Jeudy. Go figure.

Since Winston took over in Week 8, Jeudy has led the Browns in all major receiving categories. Although the usage is relatively close between him, Moore, and Tillman, the former first-round pick has made the most of his opportunities—which was apparent again in Week 14.

David Njoku: The main target, seeing 13 targets (35% Target share), catching seven passes for 42 yards and a touchdown. Njoku was targeted three times in the red zone and caught one for a touchdown.

Elijah Moore: Logged three receptions for 34 yards on four targets, holding a 14% Target share.

James Proche: He caught both of his targets for 18 yards.

Michael Woods: Had a single 12-yard catch on three targets. He will likely see a reduced role when Cedric Tillman returns.

Jordan Akins: Made a 14-yard reception on his lone target.

Njoku continued his dominance in the short-yardage game but struggled to capitalize on his team-leading Target share. He had 112 air yards but finished with just 42 yards on the seven grabs. He should stay hot against the Chiefs. They have allowed the most yards to TEs this season. Take the MORE THAN on Njoku’s 47.5 yards on Prizepicks. He went MORE THAN in three of his last five with Jameis Winston as the Browns QB1.

Ford and Moore demonstrated dual-threat capabilities but lacked explosive plays.

The Browns’ passing game was inconsistent, with Winston’s turnovers limiting their offensive momentum.

Their defense also took a major hit, as they lost two more CBs to injuries between Greg Newsome and Mike Ford.
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Pittsburgh Steelers

Add Russell Wilson | Stock Up Jaylen Warren & Pat Freiermuth | Add Mike Williams

The Pittsburgh Steelers claimed a steady win with Russell Wilson leading the offense, throwing for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Najee Harris carried the ball 16 times for 53 yards and a rushing touchdown, while Jaylen Warren added 47 rushing yards on nine attempts and caught two of five targets for 25 yards (10% Target share).

In the red zone, Harris had six rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Warren had no attempts but two red zone targets.

The first-half carries were seven for Harris and five for Warren. Warren out-snapped Harris 52% versus 42%, as the backfield was pretty split in total combined opportunities (16 vs 14).

However, RBBC could prove troublesome. The rest of the schedule is brutal for these Steelers RBs. The Steelers play vs @ PHI, @ BAL and vs KC. 32^nd-ranked schedule for fantasy RBs.

Scotty Miller contributed with three catches on four targets for 38 yards, and Mike Williams hauled in three of four targets for 36 yards. Big Mike had another 26-yard catch wiped away by an OPI call. The route usage wasn’t great for Williams, but he was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes, tied for the team lead with a 21% Target share with the most air yards (78, 41% air yards share). When he was out there, Wilson was looking for him. He also ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks, an increase from the last few weeks.

WR George Pickens did not play, leaving additional opportunities for other receivers. He is dealing with a grade 2 hamstring injury, putting his status for Week 15 in serious question.

Pat Freiermuth was a key red-zone weapon, hauling in all three of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown, commanding a 12% Target share. He was the true biggest winner of the Pickens injury, as he led the Steelers in routes run.

Back-to-back strong games for the Muth with Russ at QB.

Van Jefferson snagged his lone target for a 10-yard touchdown, contributing to a low-volume passing attack. Jefferson led the WRs in snaps played, followed by Miller, Calvin Austin, and then Williams (29%).

The routes were also led by Jefferson, followed by Austin, Williams and then Miller. Austin had a deep target that he drew an interference call on with a red zone target as well.

The Steelers also lost defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.
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Seattle Seahawks

Sell Kenneth Walker | Stock Up Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Hold DK Metcalf | Stock Up Zach Charbonnet

Geno Smith completed 24 of 30 passes for 233 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions (110.1 QB rating). The offense leaned heavily on Zach Charbonnet (Kenneth Walker was inactive), who rushed 22 times for 134 yards (6.1 YPC) and two touchdowns, also catching all 7 of his targets (24% Target share) for 59 yards (8.4 YPR). Charbonnet had eight red-zone rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. 80% snap share. Full blown workhorse.

Charbonnet rushed for 10-plus yards on four different rush attempts against the Cardinals. He now has 12 rushes of 10-plus yards this season – the same as Kenneth Walker III on 48 fewer carries.

Kenny McIntosh added 38 yards on seven carries and caught two passes for 7 yards (two red-zone carries on a 23% snap share).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught all five of his targets for 82 yards and a red-zone touchdown, commanding a 20.8% Target share. DK Metcalf posted four receptions for 49 yards on six targets (21% Target share). Noah Fant contributed three catches for 18 yards on four targets (one red-zone target).

Tyler Lockett was held without a catch, seeing just one target, while third-string RB Geno Holani lost a yard on his lone reception.

Lockett’s spiral of production continues. But it should be noted that Metcalf ran the fewest routes among the top Seahawks WRs. I think they are doing their best to monitor his injuries. At least he was targeted at a high rate – 23% – which led the trio. The big-bodied WR was the air yards leader (38%). Back-to-back weeks with high target rates above 30%.

Charbonnet and Smith-Njigba were critical playmakers throughout the game, carrying the offense to a solid win.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Seahawks are tied for the bottom-5-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and running backs: vs GB (SNF), vs MIN and @ CHI.
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Arizona Cardinals

Hold Kyler Murray & James Conner & Trey McBride | Hold Marvin Harrison Jr. | Add Trey Benson

Kyler Murray had a mixed day, completing 25 of 38 passes for 259 yards with two touchdowns but also throwing two interceptions. He had a passer rating of 80.9.

James Conner led the ground game with 18 carries for 90 yards (5.0 YPC) and a long of 23 yards.

Conner had four rush attempts in the red zone but no rushing touchdowns, one reception on one red zone target, and 1 receiving touchdown (77% snap share).

Murray added 16 yards on three carries.

Trey Benson chipped in with 15 yards on two carries, averaging 7.5 YPC.

James Conner (RB): A dual-threat with four targets, catching all for 32 yards and a receiving TD.

Emari Demercado (RB): Utilized as a receiver with four targets, catching all for 15 yards.

Trey McBride led the team with 14 targets (37% Target share), catching 7 for 70 yards (10.0 YPR). He was targeted four times, with no receptions or touchdowns (no surprise).

He can’t keep this receiving TD drought much longer. The Patriots/Panthers matchups over the next two weeks have to be where he goes on a scoring frenzy with 3-plus TDs.

McBride has 16 red-zone targets without a receiving TD yet this season.

The Patriots’ defense ranks dead last in EPA/target allowed to pass-catchers aligned tight this season. They are also dreadful against No. 2 WRs this season.

Michael Wilson (WR): Made a significant impact with two catches for 57 yards, including a 41-catch TD grab.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR): Saw ten targets, catching 4 for 49 yards (12.3 YPR). He was targeted once, with no receptions or touchdowns. MHJ had another 16-yard catch taken back on a holding call and another removed on an OPI call.

The rookie totaled 83 air yards (53%). Another solid usage day for Harrison (10-plus targets) but the inefficacy continues to plague him.

He will be faced with a tall task against the Patriots, with him drawing shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez.

Other contributors included Tip Reiman (14 yards), Zay Jones (13 yards), Greg Dortch (5 yards), and Trey Benson (4 yards).

ROS schedule: vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF. The No. 1 schedule for fantasy QBs AND No. 4 for fantasy RBs. This offense should smash the Patriots defense at home.
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Buffalo Bills

Hold James Cook | Add Keon Coleman & Ray Davis | Stock Up Amari Cooper

The Bills, led by Josh Allen, put up a stellar offensive performance. Allen completed 22 of 37 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing 10 times for 82 yards and three rushing touchdowns, showcasing his dual-threat ability. Allen dominated the red zone, scoring on multiple QB-designed runs.

According to Next Gen Stats, Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history to throw three touchdowns and run for three touchdowns in the same game.

Khalil Shakir: Targeted 8 times (22% Target share), catching five passes for 106 yards and a touchdown, including a 51-yard highlight play for a TD. He also had another red-zone target.

He remains Allen’s favorite and most efficient target. Despite not being the team’s Target share leader, he led the team in receiving yards.

Amari Cooper: 14 targets (38%), caught 6 for 95 yards, showing his reliability but failing to find the end zone.

The veteran WR was being hyper-targeted, given he was the third on the Bills in routes run behind Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir. Cooper was targeted on a whopping 61% of his routes.

He was clearly the focal point of this week’s game plan, and we will take the 95 yards. But I can’t help but think this could have been an even bigger game from Cooper: 14 targets and over 250 air yards (54% air yards share).

Mack Hollins: 6 targets (16%), four receptions for 57 yards, and a score.

Ty Johnson: Featured in the passing game with three targets, converting 2 for 55 yards and a touchdown. He actually came to scoring two TDs.

James Cook: Added 9 yards on two receptions from 2 targets. But Cook struggled on the ground (6 carries, 20 yards, 3.3 YPC). He has been boom-or-bust most of the year, so I wouldn’t overly read into this. The passing game and Allen’s rushing TDs ruled in Week 14.

Get access to the Bills backfield where you can. The Lions/Jets/Patriots are in the fantasy playoffs.

Curtis Samuel mixed in as a gadget weapon with a 1-yard rushing attempt and two receptions.

Dawson Knox: One red-zone target, caught for five yards and no touchdowns. No Dawson Knox.

Buy pieces of this Bills passing game that is starting to open things up through the air. In Week 14, Buffalo’s pass rate over expectation was +11%, the highest since Week 7
(Cooper’s first game as a Bill). Simply put, when Buffalo dials up the passing game, you can trust Amari Cooper.

The remaining schedule: @ DET, vs NE and vs NYJ. Shootout on deck.

It’s hard to make any moves with the Bills (they are all owned) other than to add Keon Coleman. He seems close to returning and I’d imagine he would enter back into the wide receiver rotation.
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Los Angeles Rams

Hold Blake Corum | Stock Up Kyren Williams | Hold Matthew Stafford & Cooper Kupp

Matthew Stafford was excellent, completing 23 of 30 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns (76.7% completion, 132.6 QB rating).

Kyren Williams dominated the backfield with 29 carries for 87 yards (3.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. Williams contributed two receptions for 10 yards. In the red zone, the Rams running back had six rush attempts, two rushing touchdowns, no targets.

Williams was the focal point of the offense, accounting for 31 total touches and 97 scrimmage yards.

Blake Corum added 8 carries for 34 yards (4.3 YPC). 4 red-zone rush attempts, no touchdowns, no targets. The majority of his carries came on the second drive of the game.

KEEP CORUM STASHED. Williams is coming off a 30-plus touch game on a short week. Corum also has eight-plus carries and 34-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games (with a decent chunk of red zone carries).

The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to RBs over the last four weeks (and six rushing TDs). Williams scored thrice the last time he faced the Rams this season (he rushed for 89 yards on 24 carries).

Puka Nacua contributed a rushing TD on five carries for 16 yards. Nacua led with 14 targets, catching 12 for 162 yards and a TD (13.5 YPC, 85 YAC, 47% Target share).

Cooper Kupp was efficient with eight targets, five catches, 92 yards, and a TD (18.4 YPC, 24 YAC).

Kupp was targeted once and caught the pass for a red-zone touchdown. In the first half, he was sitting on two catches for 30 yards. He saved his day with a long 37-yard catch plus the 17-yard TD (which was great).

Nacua was targeted three times in the red zone and caught two for one touchdown. He also had three rushing attempts and one rushing touchdown.

Tutu Atwell caught all three targets for 45 yards (15 YPC).

Demarcus Robinson had two plays wiped away by penalties, so his final box line of zero catches on one target is misleading. He is still the WR3 in the offense ahead of Atwell. Although the gap – Robinson only ran one more route than Atwell – might be closing a bit. D-Rob has been dealing with injuries so monitor his status for a short week. Same with Nacua, who was getting treatment during the game.

This week, they are @ SF (Thursday night), @ NYJ, and vs ARI.

Note that the Rams didn’t have either Nacua/Kupp the last time they played SF. In that matchup, per the Week 4 Fantasy Football Forecast:

“Atwell was the top target, catching four passes for 93 yards on five targets, which accounted for a 20% Target share. Demarcus Robinson added 32 yards on one reception (four targets), while Jordan Whittington caught three passes for 28 yards (3 targets) with a 30% target rate per route run.”

With Nacua and Kupp healthy this season, Stafford has tossed for at least 250.5 passing yards in six of his eight starts. Take the MORE than on PrizePicks for Week 15.
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Chicago Bears

Stock Down Caleb Williams & D.J. Moore & Keenan Allen | Hold D’Andre Swift | Stock Up Rome Odunze

The Bears’ offense was led by Caleb Williams, completing 17 of 23 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns (73.9% completion rate). He added 27 rushing yards on four carries.

Roschon Johnson missed the game due to a concussion, leaving D’Andre Swift to carry the rushing workload with 14 carries for 38 yards (2.7 YPC) and one reception for two yards. D’Andre Swift had four red-zone rush attempts, no touchdowns, and no targets. But with all the injuries to the Bears’ other RBs, Swift played 79% of the snaps.

Receiving highlights included DJ Moore commanding an 8-target workload (33% Target share), catching six passes for 49 yards with 43 yards after the catch.

Moore was targeted once in the red zone, caught the pass with no touchdowns.

Keenan Allen followed with 5 targets (16% Target share), securing 3 catches for 30 yards, his longest being 14 yards.

Rome Odunze caught 4 of 5 targets for 42 yards and two red-zone touchdowns, showcasing his red zone efficiency. The rookie also led the team in air yards (44%).

Odunze’s performance finally matched his usage leading up to this game. However, the Target share is spread so thin between all these Bears WRs that it’s hard to be confident every week plugging them in.

Over the last four games, Moore has led the team in targets (38, 27%) and receiving yards/catches (26% Target share).

Odunze has the most air yards over that span (over 100 per game), but it’s hard to keep chasing them every week to no avail.

Keep in mind that Odunze had zero targets in the first half as the Bears offense struggled out of the gates, falling down 24-0. They had five yards of offense in the first half. Woof.

Travis Homer contributed 3 receptions for 11 yards, while D’Andre Swift added a single reception each. Homer also left the game with a head injury, which is why Darrynton Evans saw carries late.

From Weeks 14-17, the Bears play @ MIN, DET and SEA. It’s the worst schedule for fantasy QBs. 31st-ranked schedule for fantasy RBs/WRs.

Bears WR should at least see volume against the Vikings, giving them a WR3 floor.

Here’s how the targets shook out the first time these teams played from the post-week Week 12 forecast:

“D.J. Moore had a monster performance, catching all 7 of his targets for 106 yards and a red-zone touchdown. He was dynamic after the catch, accumulating 86 YAC and recording a long reception of 37 yards. I bet the under on Moore’s as the new bubble screen king, but his moves after the catch burned me to a crisp. His aDOT was 3.5 yards. He also finished fourth in targets on the day (15% Target share). There are some signs of concern moving forward if he is completely limited to this short ADOT role.

Keenan Allen was Williams’s most-targeted receiver with 15, hauling in 9 catches for 86 yards and a red-zone score on one of his two red-zone targets. He posted a long reception of 40 yards. According to Next Gen Stats, most of his production came aligned in the slot (8 catches for 84 yards, TD).

Allen caught 3 of his four tight window targets (less than 1 yard of separation) for 36 yards.

He commanded a 32% Target share and 120-plus air yards. It’s a vintage game for Allen. And he’s got a great matchup next week on Thanksgiving against the slot funnel Lions.

Tight end Cole Kmet was a reliable option, catching 7 of his 10 targets for 64 yards with a long of 20-21% Target share and 84 air yards. He also had two red-zone targets but didn’t score. Be careful chasing him off waivers, though. The Lions are the No.1-ranked defense against tight ends this season.

Rome Odunze was targeted 10 times but caught just five passes for 39 yards. He had the ideal usage you love to see – 110 air yards, multiple end-zone red-zone looks – but he fell short.

Buy him low everywhere across the board. He plays enough from the slot – at least 40% – the last two weeks to benefit from the positive matchup versus Detroit.

Williams relied on Odunze in key moments in this game. Fourth and three, Williams connected with his fellow rookie on a 14-yard dart that helped Chicago force overtime.”
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San Francisco 49ers

Add Patrick Taylor | Stock Down Deebo Samuel

The 49ers dominated offensively, with Brock Purdy completing 20 of 25 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Purdy showcased efficiency, achieving a 145.4 passer rating. He got shaken up on a hit later in the game but returned to action. Purdy also had a rushing TD called back on a holding call that resulted in a Jake Moody field goal.

Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo carried the ground attack with 15 rushes for 78 yards and two touchdowns, also adding two receptions for 50 yards (11% Target share). Patrick Taylor added 25 rushing yards and a score.

Guerendo had two red-zone rush attempts and two rushing touchdowns. His first red-zone TD came after he caught a long pass where he fell just short of the goal line. Taylor had three red-zone carries as well, but they came much later in the game after Guerendo had left with an injury.

Coach Kyle Shanahan said that after Sunday’s 38-13 win over the Bears, Guerendo possibly has a foot sprain, Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Not ideal for a short week with the 49ers playing on Thursday.

Guerendo out-carried Taylor 9-1 in the first half. Deebo Samuel had three carries for -3 yards in the first half.

Taylor looks like the next man up on a short week.

George Kittle was a standout, securing all six targets for 151 yards (25% Target share), including a 33-yard long reception and 105 yards after the catch. He was targeted once in the red zone but didn’t score.

Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one. 45-plus in nine straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. Over 54.5 yards in eight of his last 10 games.

Take the MORE THAN 54.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks. Projections have him closer to 63-plus yards.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

Jauan Jennings converted seven of eight targets into 90 yards and two red-zone touchdowns (33% Target share, 35% air yards share). He is the 49ers’ WR1 for the rest of the season, by all accounts. He destroyed the Rams in his breakout game back in Week 3 to the tune of 174 receiving yards. Take his MORE than 67.5 yards for Thursday Night on Prizepicks. Or tease it up to 79.5-plus, given that anytime Jennings has hit the OVER this year on his receiving yards, he has at least 89.5 yards.

Deebo Samuel Sr. contributed 22 yards on two receptions (8% Target share) and 13 rushing yards. Samuel had one red-zone target, caught for no touchdowns, and two rush attempts in the red zone. He finished with five total carries for 13 yards (two came in the fourth quarter).

Samuel has been beyond terrible for fantasy football purposes, but it was not hard not to view his stock as up entering Week 14, with CMC out the rest of the season. However, his role as a receiver did not change. All he did was see more carries. With Guerendo out, we could see another game where Samuel sees decent rushing volume, as he is a complete afterthought as a receiver.

In Week 14, he was targeted on 14% of his routes run. You are praying that he just takes a screen pass for a TD from inside the red zone. Three of his seven touches came in the red zone.

Samuel missed the Week 3 contest when the 49ers first played the Rams.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk had a minimal offensive role but caught one pass for three yards.

The 49ers finish the season with the Rams (Thursday night), Dolphins and Lions.

Go MORE than 239.5 passing yards on Brock Purdy this week on Prizepicks. He bounced back in Week 14 after posting back-to-back duds. He has gone over this number in 7 of his 11 games this season (64%) – six of eight with Kittle, Samuel, and Jennings all in the lineup. He threw for 292 passing yards the last time he played the Rams back in Week 3.
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Los Angeles Chargers

Hold/Add J.K. Dobbins | Buy Ladd McConkey | Hold Quentin Johnston | Add Kimani Vidal & Joshua Palmer

Justin Herbert was efficient, completing 21 of 30 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown. He added four carries for 12 rushing yards.

Gus Edwards led the backfield with 10 carries for 36 yards and a goal-line touchdown (3.6 YPC).

Kimani Vidal contributed eight carries for 34 yards (4.3 YPC).

Edwards led the first half with four carries for six yards compared to Vidal’s lone rush attempt for seven yards. But Vidal was a bigger factor in the second half and added the most juice from the backfield, going seven for 27 to Edwards’ six for 30.

He out-snapped Gus Edwards 53% versus 43% while running two more routes.

In the red zone, Edwards had four rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Vidal had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Hasaan Haskins played one offensive snap.

Vidal looks like he is starting to emerge in this backfield, but it won’t likely be more than a 1A/1B situation. You also have the issue of the red zone role, which Edwards seems likely to keep, as we saw on Sunday Night Football.

Also, something to keep in mind: I am hesitant to drop J.K. Dobbins because he could return in Week 17 against the Patriots (great matchup). They said on the SNF broadcast he intends to return for Week 17. If Dobbins was dropped, he would be a great stash for the playoffs.

Taylor Heinicke and Herbert each chipped in with a single scramble, while Vidal was targeted once but didn’t record a catch.

Joshua Palmer led the team in targets (9, 31% Target share), turning them into six receptions for 78 yards, including a 38-yard deep shot on his 139 air yards (47% air yard share). One red-zone target and no catches or touchdowns while leading the Chargers in routes run. He was wide open for a bomb from Herbert in the first half, but his QB missed him.

No. 2 tight end Stone Smartt caught all 3 of his targets (10% share) for 54 yards, including a 24-yard grab. Will Dissly was reliable, converting 2 of 2 targets for 19 yards. But he got hurt in the first half and did not return to the game in the second half (shoulder injury).

Hebert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is.

Quentin Johnston found the end zone on his lone red-zone target, catching 5 of 7 targets (24%) for 48 yards, with a long gain of 21 yards. QJ led the team in first half-targets (five) and finished with nine total targets when you factor in penalties.

Both Palmer/Johston have been bad (especially as of late) but they stepped up with Ladd McConkey out. The targets had to be funneled somewhere and they delivered. However, if McConkey returns next week (most likely) you are just hoping for some splash plays against the horrible Buccaneers pass defense. Worth adding early in the week, but don’t be afraid to pivot if we get more positive news on McConkey.

The remaining schedule vs. TB, vs. DEN, and @ NE. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chargers have the seventh-best schedule ROS for WRs.

DJ Chark and Jalen Reagor caught 1 pass each for 9 and 4 yards, respectively.

Derius Davis struggled, managing just two catches on four targets for 1 yard (36% target rate). He played more because Reagor also got hurt.
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Kansas City Chiefs

Hold Xavier Worthy & Travis Kelce | Sell Kareem Hunt | Stock Up DeAndre Hopkins

Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs with 24 completions on 37 attempts for 210 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Mahomes added 17 rushing yards on four attempts, including a 10-yard scramble. A lot was made pre-game about the Chiefs’ new starting left tackle, D.J. Humphries, but he got hurt in the fourth quarter. Wanya Morris stepped back in for relief.

According to Next Gen Stats, Humphries allowed eight pressures on 40 pass-blocking snaps in Week 14 against the Chargers, the 2nd-most pressures and the 2nd-highest pressure rate (20.0%) allowed by a Chiefs left tackle in a game this season (min. 10 pass-blocking snaps).

Humphries allowed pressure from five different Chargers defenders, including two each to Bud Dupree, Joey Bosa, and Khalil Mack. Humphries is the second Chiefs left tackle to allow 2+ sacks in a game this season (Kingsley Suamataia).

Isiah Pacheco: 14 carries, 55 yards (3.9 YPC), and four targets (2 receptions, 6 yards).

Kareem Hunt: 5 carries, 16 yards (3.2 YPC), and one target (1 reception, 13 yards).

Pacheco led the rushing game, managing tough yards. Hunt saw limited opportunities, with just five carries. Mahomes efficiently spread the ball but faced consistent pressure, limiting big-play opportunities.

Pacheco led with six carries in the first half to Hunt’s two. He also out-snapped Hunt 46% to 29%.

Xavier Worthy: 1 carry, 5 yards.

Samaje Perine: 1 carry, 3 yards, with two targets (1 reception, 16 yards). The third-down back played 25% of the snaps. He and Pacheco each saw one red-zone touch.

We are starting to see Pacheco earn more touches as the season progresses, but Hunt/Perine will not completely go away in an effort to keep Pacheco fresh for a Chiefs’ real-life postseason run.

DeAndre Hopkins: Team-high 9 targets (25% Target share), catching 4 for 32 yards and a touchdown (64% air yards share and 166 air yards). The veteran WR continues to hover around the 50%-55% snap mark, but it hasn’t mattered because of his high target rate per route run (33% in Week 14). In the last four games, Hopkins has a 19% Target share but a 28% target rate per route run.

He is also not being used much on non-passing plays.

Note that the Chiefs are making sure that they don’t have to pay more to the Titans via trade if they keep Hopkins’ snaps below 60%. Given that they could be in-line for a Week 18 rest week, we could see Hopkins’ snap increase without the risk he goes over that 60% threshold.

Hopkins was a focal point with nine targets (24% Target share), contributing a critical touchdown in the red zone. One red-zone target was caught for a 10-yard touchdown.

I like the MORE THAN on Hopkins this week on Prizepicks. Line is 44.5 yards. But the Browns defense has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt this season.

Kelce maintained his reliability with a 17% Target share and led the team in receiving consistency.

Travis Kelce: 6 targets, five receptions, 45 yards, leading the team in receptions. Two red-zone targets were caught for 13 yards and no touchdowns.

Kelce is running ice cold in the TD department, but it likely won’t last. He is seeing too many red-zone targets every week not to score soon.

Xavier Worthy: 6 targets, five receptions, 41 yards. The rookie led the Chiefs in snaps played and routes run.

The rookie has been coming on as of late, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards (203) since Week 11. He has four catches or more in four straight games, with 40-plus yards. Keep taking his overs on Prizepicks with the line set at 38.5 receiving yards. MORE THAN. Especially against a leaky Browns secondary that ranks second in deep passes faced this season.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 2 targets, two receptions, 31 yards (15.5 YPR).

Noah Gray: 5 targets, four receptions, 26 yards. One red-zone target was caught for eight yards with no touchdowns.

Hopkins, Gray, and Worthy each saw five targets in the first half.

KC also suffered a major defensive injury, losing CB Joshua Williams to a chest injury.

KC will play @ CLE, vs HOU and @ PIT.

Buy the Chiefs passing game, and sell the backfield.
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Cincinnati Bengals

Stock Down Mike Gesicki | Buy Tee Higgins | Stock Up Chase Brown | Hold Khalil Herbert

The Bengals’ offense led by Joe Burrow delivered an impressive performance in Week 14, with the quarterback completing 33 of 44 passes for 369 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 112.8 and a yards-per-attempt of 8.4.

Chase Brown: Carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards (4.1 YPC), with a long of 10 yards. Led the backfield with an 83% snap share.

Ja’Marr Chase: Logged 1 rush for 14 yards. Khalil Herbert: Recorded 2 carries for 4 yards (2.0 YPC).

Joe Burrow: Added 2 scrambles for -2 yards.

Ja’Marr Chase: Dominated the passing game with a massive 18 targets (42% Target share), catching 14 passes for 177 yards (12.6 YPR) and 2 touchdowns. His longest reception of 40 yards highlighted his ability to make explosive plays, and he added an impressive 76 YAC.

Chase led the red zone targets with 1 reception on 3 targets, converting one for a 5-yard score.

Chase Brown contributed heavily in the passing game, catching all 6 of his 8 targets (18.2% Target share) for 65 yards (10.8 YPR) and 1 receiving touchdown. He showcased versatility with 68 YAC on his longest play of 19 yards.

Brown again had 100 combined yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Gone over 90 yards from scrimmage in five straight games.

Brown recorded 2 red zone receptions, scoring 1 receiving touchdown and two more red-zone carries. He out-carried Khalil Herbert five versus two in the first half.

Herbert was utilized once in the passing game, catching 1 target for 7 yards with 10 YAC

Andrei Iosivas: Reliable with 4 receptions on 5 targets (11.4% Target share) for 41 yards (10.3 YPR). His longest catch was 23 yards.

Mike Gesicki: The tight end caught all 3 of his targets (6.8% Target share) for 24 yards (8.0 YPR), with his longest play going for 13 yards and contributing 15 YAC. He saw one red-zone target. But his snaps plummeted to 28% and he ran fewer routes than Tanner Hudson (37% route participation).

Tee Higgins: Struggled to find much space with 5 targets (11.4% Target share), hauling in just 2 receptions for 23 yards (11.5 YPR). His longest catch went for 13 yards. Tee Higgins had two red zone targets but failed to reach the end zone. Buy low opportunity after a random dud game from Higgins.

Tanner Hudson: Made a single 19-yard reception on 1 target, showing explosiveness after the catch with 14 YAC. However, he played the fewest snaps among the Bengals’ top three TEs.

Drew Sample: Caught both of his 2 targets for 13 yards (6.5 YPR) with a longest gain of 12 yards. He led the Bengals in snaps among TEs.

The playoff schedule between the Titans, Browns, and Broncos in Week 17 isn’t great. The 5-8 Bengals also have a 4% chance of making the postseason…so it’s all but over for them.
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Dallas Cowboys

Stock Up Rico Dowdle & KaVontae Turpin | Sell CeeDee Lamb

The Dallas Cowboys leaned on their rushing attack in Week 14, with Cooper Rush leading the team to a hard-fought loss despite an inconsistent passing performance. Rush completed 16 of 31 passes for 183 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 77.8 and an average of 5.9 yards per attempt.

Rico Dowdle: Carried the ball 18 times for 131 yards (7.3 YPC), with a long run of 27 yards, showcasing a dominant ground performance. He had three carries in the red zone with a separate red-zone target. The Dallas RB1 played 77% of the snaps.

According to Next Gen Stats, Dowdle rushed 18 times for 131 yards, generating +41 rushing yards over expected. It is Dowdle’s 2nd-straight game with at least +40 rushing yards over expected; prior to Week 13, his career-high was +14 rushing yards over expected.

The Panthers are up next. Giddy up.

KaVontae Turpin: Added 2 carries for 15 yards (7.5 YPC), including a 10-yard burst.

Cooper Rush: Contributed two scrambles for 5 yards (2.5 YPC).

Ezekiel Elliott: Had two carries for 4 yards (2.0 YPC). He had one carry in the red zone.

Rico Dowdle: Added value as a pass-catcher, converting 1 of 2 targets (6.5% Target share) into a 10-yard gain, including 7 YAC.

Hunter Luepke: The fullback made a minor contribution, catching 1 of 1 target for 5 yards (5.0 YPR) with 3 YAC.

Ezekiel Elliott: Recorded one target and caught it for a short 2-yard gain.

CeeDee Lamb: Logged one rush for 1 yard, used on a gadget play.

CeeDee Lamb was the focal point of the passing game. Lamb turned in 7 targets (23% Target share), catching six passes for 93 yards (15.5 YPR) and one touchdown. He recorded a long reception of 43 yards and added 53 YAC.

Lamb caught one of his two red zone targets, including a touchdown.

Jake Ferguson: The tight end was involved with six targets (19.4% Target share), hauling in 3 receptions for 32 yards (10.7 YPR). His longest gain was 20 yards, with 16 YAC.

He returned to his full-time role, playing 77% of the snaps, running a route of 25 of 35 Cooper Rush dropbacks. Ferguson was targeted on 24% of his route run (team-high among qualifiers).

Luke Schoonmaker: Efficiently caught all 2 of his targets (6.5% Target share) for 22 yards (11.0 YPR). He had a long catch of 14 yards with 11 YAC.

KaVontae Turpin: Managed just one catch on four targets (12.9% Target share) for 16 yards. His lone reception included 16 YAC. He was also the team’s air yards leader (albeit just 51 air yards).

Turpin has continued to pop on both special teams and on offense. 57% target rate.

Brandin Cooks: Had three targets but managed only one catch for 3 yards, scoring a short touchdown in the red zone.

Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo, and Roderick Flournoy: Each had 1-3 targets but failed to record a reception. Tolbert had a red zone target and finished third in routes behind Brandin Cooks.

Dallas lost three pieces on their team in Monday’s night loss, as Cooper Beebe, DeMarvion Overshown and C.J. Goodwin all left with injuries.

The rest of the schedule is as follows: @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. It’s a very juicy playoff schedule, but without Dak Prescott, Lamb remains a volume-dependent fantasy WR2. Not useless by any means, but limited in some capacity.

Note that all his games with Rush back in 2022 weren’t great. It’s going to be up-and-down, and I’m fearful of being on the wrong side of the Rush experience come fantasy football playoff time. He could destroy you against the Eagles’ strong defense if he duds out.

Other than at Philly, Rush’s schedule is solid.

However, the Cowboys also have the 32nd-ranked schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season.
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BYE WEEK TEAMS

Washington Commanders

Hold Zach Ertz | Add Jeremy McNichols | Stock Up Terry McLaurin | Drop Austin Ekeler

Jayden Daniels had an efficient outing in Week 13 versus the Titans, completing 25 of 30 passes for 206 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He posted a strong passer rating of 114.7 and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.

Brian Robinson Jr. was a force on the ground, rushing 16 times for 103 yards (6.4 YPC) and a touchdown, with a long run of 40 yards.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. added 94 rushing yards on 13 carries (7.2 YPC) and a touchdown, including a 25-yard burst.

Daniels chipped in 34 yards and a touchdown on nine carries, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

Jeremy McNichols contributed 32 yards on six carries (5.3 YPC).

Robinson Jr. had four red zone carries but no scores from inside the 20-yard line. Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols each carried twice, with Rodriguez scoring once. Robinson Jr. was heavily utilized in the first half, receiving 11 carries compared to McNichols’ six.

He finished the game with a 47% snap share, out-pacing Rodriguez (28%) and McNichols (25%).

Washington’s run game was very impressive in Week 13, considering the strength of their opponent’s run defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders’ offense recorded 39 carries for a season-high 246 yards and three touchdowns on designed runs in Week 13, including a season-high +78 rushing yards over expected and 2.8 yards before contact per carry (2nd-most this season).

Entering the game, the Titans defense had allowed just 0.8 yards before contact per carry on designed runs, the 6th-fewest in the NFL. The Commanders were most effective between the tackles, recording the most rushing yards (189), explosive runs (4), and yards before contact per carry (3.1) on designed runs against the Titans’ defense in a game this season.

After being placed on IR, Austin Ekeler will miss the remainder of the fantasy football season. Therefore, McNichols needs to be added as the No. 2 rusher. Note that C-Rod didn’t see his first carry until the end of the third quarter, with the Commanders going up 35-13.

Terry McLaurin dominated the passing game, catching all 8 of his targets (27% Target share) for 73 yards (9.1 YPR) and two touchdowns, with a long of 16 yards.

McLaurin had two red zone targets, catching both for two touchdowns. Zach Ertz also had two targets, catching one for a touchdown. Olamide Zaccheaus had one red-zone target and caught it but did not score.

Ertz caught 3 of 6 targets for 35 yards (11.7 YPR) and a touchdown, with a long reception of 25 yards.

Dyami Brown added 35 yards on four catches (8.8 YPR), with a long of 13 yards. He played the second-most WR snaps and tied for the second-most routes run.

Noah Brown caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards before leaving the game in the third quarter with an injury.

Zacchaeus had 14 yards on three receptions (4.7 YPR), while Luke McCaffrey added 13 yards on two receptions.

No need to add any Commanders WRs now, but should Noah Brown miss any time there will be opportunities for another WR to step up.

The playoff schedule features the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons after Week 14. It’s a top-10 schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
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Denver Broncos

Add Bo Nix | Stock Up Courtland Sutton | Stock Down Javonte Williams| Stock Up Marvin Mims & Troy Franklin | Add Jaleel McLaughlin

The Broncos came away with a win in a gritty battle two Monday nights ago as Bo Nix completed 18 of 35 passes for 294 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions.

Javonte Williams led with two red-zone carries and scored Denver’s lone rushing touchdown. Fullback Michael Burton added a goal-line TD on his only carry of the game. Despite leading the team with 14 carries for 84 yards (6.0 YPC), Jaleel McLaughlin struggled to convert in the red zone, logging three carries without finding the end zone. McLaughlin played 36% of the snaps, narrowly behind Williams’ 45%. Rookie Audric Estime contributed sparingly, with three carries for 12 yards while playing just 12% of the snaps.

Classic Broncos backfield usage. Unpredictable. Once we feel good about one guy, Sean Payton mixes it up. Good grief.

This week, the rising star looks like McLaughlin after his impressive rushing outing. But we have been down this road before. Unless you can add him for a very low bid, don’t be overly aggressive.

Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos have a bottom-five schedule for fantasy RBs for the rest of the season-stock down the Broncos backfield and stock up Denver’s passing game.

Courtland Sutton was a focal point of the passing attack, commanding a team-high 29% Target share and racking up 181 air yards (46% air yards share). Sutton caught six of his nine targets for 102 yards but failed to reach the end zone.

Sutton has been on an absolute heater since his zero-target game against the Saints. Averaging nearly 95 yards per game with a 46% air yards share and 29% Target share.

Marvin Mims Jr. provided the game’s biggest highlight with a 93-yard touchdown reception, finishing with three catches for 105 yards and a score on four targets. Mims added a red-zone reception for five yards and logged a 35% snap share.

I felt very strongly that one of these Broncos speedsters would pop off against the Browns, but I guessed wrong that it would be Franklin instead of Mims.

The routes still aren’t there for Mims, but he has had six-plus touches in three of his last four games.

Troy Franklin tied for second on the team in routes run (41% snap rate) and drew a target on 26% of his routes. The rookie WR hauled in two of five targets for 28 yards, including 98 air yards and multiple deep targets. He finished second on the team with a 16% Target share.

Alas, more deep targets but no deep catches. Are we sure that Nix and Franklin played college ball together?

Even so, Franklin flashed his potential with a strong target-per-route rate and remains a player to watch as Denver integrates him further into the offense. Post bye week, I like him as a deep stash.

Devaughn Vele (47% snap rate) also tied Franklin in routes run but had a quieter day, catching just one of four targets for 16 yards. Vele was targeted twice in the red zone but did not score. Tight ends Luke Krull and Nate Adkins contributed modestly, with Krull catching all three of his targets for 24 yards and Adkins securing a 16-yard grab.

According to the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Broncos’ quarterback schedule for the rest of the season is ranked in the top 10 (WRs’ schedule is ranked 10th).

The ROS schedule goes vs. IND, @ LAC, @ CIN, and vs. KC.
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Baltimore Ravens

Hold Mark Andrews | Add Isaiah Likely

In Week 13, Lamar Jackson went 23/36 for 237 yards, two touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He posted a 101.3 passer rating and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt.

Derrick Henry: 19 carries for 82 yards (4.3 YPC), with a long of 19 yards.

Jackson: 8 rushes for 79 yards (9.9 YPC), including a 39-yard run.

Justice Hill: 3 carries for 6 yards.

Henry had one red zone carry without scoring. Hill was targeted once inside the 20-yard line but did not score.

Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers: Each recorded one carry, with Flowers losing 3 yards.

Zay Flowers had three receptions on seven targets for 74 yards (24.7 YPC), including a 40-yard catch.

Flowers continued to flash his big-play ability, making the most of his opportunities with a 40-yard reception. He was also used a lot downfield with 142 air yards (41% air yards share).

Mark Andrews was reliable as always, catching 6 of 7 targets for 67 yards (11.2 YPC) and a touchdown. 20% Target share.

Isaiah Likely hauled in 5 of 8 targets for 38 yards (7.6 YPC) and a touchdown. Andrews had two red zone targets, catching one for a touchdown. Likely had one target and scored a touchdown.

Derrick Henry also contributed as a pass-catcher with three receptions for 29 yards (9.7 YPC), including a long of 16.

Justice Hill had four catches on six targets for 15 yards (3.8 YPC), showcasing some after-the-catch ability with 34 yards after contact.

Nelson Agholor: Targeted twice but did not record a reception.

Rashod Bateman exited the game with an injury, leaving the Ravens’ receiving corps thinner.

Tylan Wallace: 2 receptions on two targets for 14 yards (7 YPC). Tylan Wallace was targeted once in the red zone but did not score. He played more due to the injury to Bateman, seizing a 56% snap share (same as Agholor).

Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson didn’t even play. With Baltimore on a bye week, I figure they’d look to get DJ more involved, presuming Bateman is out for multiple weeks. DJ has played five games as a Raven and has barely played. To add insult to injury, he will also miss the next game due to a suspension cited by the team. Woof.

Baltimore will come off a Week 14 bye week. Then, the Giants, Steelers (again), and Texans in the fantasy football playoffs.

There is no need to be overly aggressive in stashing ancillary Ravens unless we get concrete information about Bateman’s significant absence. Coach John Harbaugh said after Week 13 that Bateman’s knee injury isn’t believed to be long-term, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.

Mark Andrews remained a critical red-zone threat, scoring one of Jackson’s two passing touchdowns.

Isaiah Likely stepped up in the absence of Bateman, scoring a touchdown and contributing solid production. Likely’s eight targets led the team (23% Target share), along with his 38% target rate per route run.

With Johnson suspended and Bateman hurt, Likely might be the sneaky tight end add that nobody is talking about.
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Indianapolis Colts

Hold/Drop Anthony Richardson | Hold Jonathan Taylor | Stock Down Michael Pittman Jr.

Anthony Richardson struggled through the air in Week 13 against the Patriots, completing 12 of 24 passes for 109 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He averaged 4.5 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 55.7.

Jonathan Taylor carried the workload with 25 attempts for 96 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long of 9 yards. Taylor led with ten red zone carries but did not score on the ground. He had one red zone target, which he converted into a receiving touchdown.

Richardson added 48 yards and a touchdown on nine carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt, with a long of 13.

Michael Pittman Jr. led the Colts in receiving, catching 5 of 7 targets (29% Target share, two red-zone targets) for 42 yards, with an 8.4-yard average and 35 yards after the catch. I want to be clear that this wasn’t due to a Christian Gonzalez shadow coverage. More of a Richardson problem than anything else. Saw the volume but it was lackluster at best.

Andrew Ogletree made a big play with a 22-yard reception on his lone catch.

Alec Pierce caught 2 of 6 targets (25% Target share) for 16 yards and the eventual game-winning touchdown, with a long of 13 yards. He had some downfield opportunities (129 air yards) but to no avail.

Mo Alie-Cox was a reliable target, catching both of his targets for 15 yards, including an 11-yard reception. Jonathan Taylor caught his lone target for 7 yards and a touchdown.

Will Mallory contributed with a 7-yard reception on his only target.

I was shocked that Adonai Mitchell played so little. He only played 58% of the snaps, and drew Gonzalez in coverage frequently.

Just two targets on 14 routes run. He did have a shot for an opportunity for a touchdown on a nice ball from Richardson in the corner end zone, but the ball fell incomplete. He also had a drop.

Jonathan Taylor was the focal point of the offense, though his efficiency (3.8 YPC) was limited.

Anthony Richardson‘s mobility and red-zone rushing ability stood out with a rushing touchdown, but his turnovers in the passing game hampered the Colts’ offensive consistency.

Michael Pittman Jr. continued to be a reliable target, leading the team in receptions and receiving yards.

Alec Pierce delivered a touchdown catch but was otherwise quiet, with only 16 total receiving yards.

After the bye week, the schedule is: @ DEN, vs. TEN, and @ NYG. Tough sledding until the Giants.

Outside JT, you can probably drop Colts players on their bye week if you need to.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Indianapolis’s schedule for quarterbacks is average (although better than some of their most recent matchups). For running backs, it’s also average.

It’s a bottom-10 schedule for WRs as well. If you have to cut Pittman in shallower leagues, more power to you. Josh Downs‘ eventual return from his injury won’t help bolster his fantasy production.
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New England Patriots

Hold Hunter Henry | Stock Up Rhamondre Stevenson | Drop Drake Maye

Drake Maye had an efficient outing against the Colts in Week 13, completing 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 96.9.

I got the chance to see Maye live for this game, and he looked the part of a franchise quarterback-tight window throws, off-script plays, etc. The only reason the Patriots lost this game was because of penalties in the red zone.

In Week 12, they didn’t get into the red zone at all. Baby steps.

Rhamondre Stevenson led the ground game with 18 carries for 73 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, including a long of 32. He scored a red-zone TD, but it was called back on a penalty.

Antonio Gibson added a spark with seven carries for 62 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.9 yards per carry with a long of 15.

Stevenson carried six times in the red zone but did not score. Gibson had two red zone carries and converted one into a rushing touchdown. It’s a painful run out for Stevenson fantasy managers. He also fumbled but recovered it.

Both RBs ran well, but nothing suggests that Gibson (even though he played well) is taking over. Stevenson – other than the fumble – ran great and played 78% of the snaps to Gibson’s 24%.

Like I said in Week 12, I think I’ve reached the point with Stevenson that I only care about chasing his potential ceiling. In closer games, he should remain productive.

Maye contributed 59 yards on five scrambles, averaging an impressive 11.8 yards per carry, including a long of 41.

Gibson provided explosiveness in the run game, scoring the team’s lone rushing touchdown.

Maye showed dual-threat ability, with a critical 41-yard scramble contributing to the Patriots’ offensive momentum.

Hunter Henry led the team with seven catches on nine targets (30% Target share and 35% air yards share) for 75 yards, averaging 10.7 yards per reception, including a long of 14 and 34 yards after the catch.

Henry had two red zone targets, catching one but not scoring. The other bounced off his hands and led to a Colts’ interception. Henry was overall a reliable target in the passing game, leading the team in catches and receiving yards. Hooper’s touchdown highlighted an efficient day for the Patriots’ tight ends.

Austin Hooper caught all 4 of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown, averaging 10.5 yards per reception with a long of 16.

Eventually, the TDs will favor Henry over Hooper. But the main takeaway from both Hooper and Henry is that this Alex Van Pelt offense is extremely tight-end-focused. Both TEs were targeted on 30% or more of their routes run.

Kayshon Boutte hauled in 3 of 6 targets for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per catch, with a long of 29. He continues to lead the team in routes, but it seems like this number might dip south sooner rather than later.

Kendrick Bourne had a perfect day, catching all 3 of his targets for 39 yards, averaging 13 yards per reception.

Rhamondre Stevenson added three receptions for 21 yards, with 21 yards after the catch.

DeMario Douglas contributed 20 yards on four receptions. Douglas also had two red-zone targets but no scores. Kayshon Boutte had one red-zone target but did not score.

The Patriots have the No. 2 schedule for fantasy WRs for the rest of the season. After their bye week, it’s at the Cardinals, at the Bills, and home versus the Chargers. I will be curious as to what changes the Patriots make offensively out of their bye week (more Javon Baker perhaps?).

This is good for the WRs, but maybe not the QB. If you need to drop Maye, do it. The Patriots have the worst schedule for quarterbacks for the rest of the season.

However, the outlook for the rest of the season isn’t great for the Patriots’ TEs (dead last). If you can upgrade off waivers, try to do so.
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Houston Texans

Drop C.J. Stroud | Stock Down Tank Dell | Stock Up Nico Collins

In Week 13, C.J. Stroud put in a solid performance, completing 22 of 34 passes for 242 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 95.5.

Joe Mixon carried the ground game with 20 rushes for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown, highlighted by a 30-yard run.

Mixon was a dual threat, topping 100 rushing yards and playing a role in the passing game.

Mixon carried twice in the red zone and scored one rushing touchdown. He contributed in the passing game with 4 receptions for 18 yards.

C.J. Stroud added five carries for 7 yards.

Nico Collins dominated as the top target, catching 8 of 11 targets for 119 yards, with a long catch of 40 yards and a whopping 58 yards after the catch.

Collins was the clear focal point, commanding 32% of the targets and racking up big plays after the catch.

Tight end Dalton Schultz was highly effective, securing 5 of 7 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown, including a 22-yard reception and 38 YAC. Schultz showcased his red zone reliability with a touchdown grab and contributed significantly to the passing attack.

Do not chase it. The Jaguars are the best matchup for fantasy TEs.

Tank Dell had just one catch for 23 yards on four targets. More air yards (100-plus) but nothing to show for it. Woof.

John Metchie III caught both of his targets for 16 yards.

Cade Stover and Dameon Pierce added minor contributions with catches of 4 and 1 yards, respectively.

Houston will come off a Week 14. They open the fantasy football playoffs against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens. If you have them, you hold them.

Stroud was usable against the Jaguars, but you don’t need to hold him through the bye week with the Dolphins/Chiefs.

The same can be said for Dell. Hate to drop a guy of his talent, but clearly, he is not right from the leg injury last season. Maybe the bye week will be his chance to get right, but you’d need to see it first against Miami before putting him back into starting lineups.

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