Ordinarily, when I sit down on Monday mornings to write this column and sift through the weekend’s statistics, I can see a common thread — a theme that develops as a narrative on which I can focus the beginning of the article.
So, what were the themes of Week 15, you wonder? Injuries, blowup performances by players unlikely to be rostered on playoff teams and the continued domination of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson at the quarterback position.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Studs & Duds: Week 15
The fantasy football playoffs often boil down to the “haves vs. have-nots” at particular positions. Managers who were astute and decided it was worth the perceived “risk” to draft Allen and Jackson around their average draft position (ADP) have been handsomely rewarded, while those who took the chance on the upside of Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray or C.J. Stroud are wondering where it all went wrong.
Veteran options with several years of high-level production have firmly dominated the landscape over alternatives that haven’t proven reliable.
Jackson and Allen (and, to a lesser extent, Joe Burrow) have outperformed all other quarterbacks by such a wide margin that their managers can get away with setting a less-than-perfect lineup each week. Their rushing upside and an embarrassment of riches at receiver and tight end drive defensive coordinators insane, feeling like the little Dutch boy attempting to plug holes at the proverbial dam.
Saquon Barkley and Ja’Marr Chase offer a similar buffer at their positions. If you have any (or especially multiple) of these options you are currently sitting pretty and likely moving on to the next round.
Which other players stood out this week or fell on their faces? Below are a few examples that stood out.
Quarterback
STUD: Jared Goff (QB – DET)
A common theme I saw multiple analysts and pundits touting the past two weeks was how difficult Jared Goff’s playoff schedule was and the notion fading him in favor of other options was a wise decision. Was it? Detroit squaring off against Buffalo, Chicago and San Francisco during the playoffs might sound daunting at first, but remember what Detroit is currently playing for and the stakes of a loss.
Dan Campbell’s team comes prepared each week to bludgeon you in the face and has little desire to let their foot off the gas pedal. The Lions’ ultimate goal (and it still feels odd writing this) is to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and win a Super Bowl. Period.
In competitive contests where the opponent shows resolve, expect Detroit to rely on their strengths — play-action passing and dominating time of possession behind their offensive line and two-headed running attack. This might not sound like a recipe for fantasy success, but since opposing defenses must allocate resources to stop David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs heavily, Detroit continually picks up chunk plays in the passing game.
Goff has been on an absolute tear since his poor performance in Week 10 against Houston — during that timeframe, he has averaged over 330 passing yards each game and has a 14:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It isn’t easy to envision him sitting in favor of an alternative option, even against the Bears and 49ers.
This past weekend, he went full-nuclear, throwing for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns against the Bills. Goff is currently the QB7 for the year. I expect Detroit to come out angry on the road against their NFC North rival Chicago and send a message after a loss.
Anyone with the misfortune of starting Brock Purdy in Thursday night’s contest against Los Angeles was dealt a significant blow, as he completed just 14 passes for 142 yards and an interception in a loss versus the Rams. One can point to the weather conditions as a key factor — driving rain and steady wind made it difficult for the passing game to get online.
That aside, this was a juicy matchup against a secondary recently torched by Buffalo, Philadelphia and Miami. George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel failed to capitalize on their opportunities — each player had at least seven targets but could not significantly contribute to the passing game. The loss of left tackle Trent Williams made a significant difference in the running game. Without the threat of Isaac Guerendo breaking a big run, the secondary honed in on Purdy instead.
Now 6-8 and two games behind the Rams in the NFC West, it isn’t easy to envision a scenario where the 49ers clinch a playoff spot. With that poor performance, Purdy fell to the QB16 this year. He has just one game with over 300 yards passing since Week 10.
Running Back
STUD: James Conner (RB – ARI)
Have my eyes deceived me? Or has James Conner made it through every game this year healthy? Isn’t it funny he is an incredibly productive player when he can remain on the field? This past week, Conner topped the leaderboard at the position, rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, chipping in an additional five receptions for 28 yards as a receiver.
The clear bell-cow option for Arizona in the backfield (and even more so now with Trey Benson out the remainder of 2024 with an ankle injury), Conner is one of the few bright spots for a Cardinals offense that has underperformed most of this season. His dual-threat ability gives him enough of a floor to be ranked as an upside RB2 weekly.
Conner will end the fantasy playoff stretch against two defenses (Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams) that rank in the bottom five of rushing yards allowed per contest. Arizona is in a dogfight with Seattle, Washington and Green Bay to secure a Wild Card berth and will need a few lucky breaks to go their way.
Top-tier running backs royally falling on their face was a common theme this past weekend, and the “dud” title could have just as quickly been bestowed upon Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard or David Montgomery. On paper, Derrick Henry should have dominated the New York Giants this past weekend.
Already without their best defensive player (defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence) and surrendering the second-most rushing yards in the league per game (nearly 144 each week), all expectations were for Baltimore to run the ball down New York’s throat continually. Unfortunately, they opted for a different approach.
Lamar Jackson led an aerial raid against a beleaguered Giants secondary, passing for 290 yards and five touchdowns in a 35-14 slaughter. The Ravens’ success through the air meant Henry’s services were largely unnecessary. Understanding they would need to rely on him during the playoffs, the team chose to limit his touches.
It is difficult to be too upset with Henry, given his outstanding success this season (he leads the position with 13 rushing touchdowns and is second in the league with 1,474 rushing yards), but this dud came at an inopportune time for his fantasy managers.
Wide Receiver
STUD: Davante Adams (WR – NYJ)
Davante Adams is finishing 2024 with a flourish, but I wonder if this is too little, too late for his fantasy managers. Held mainly in check due to phantom injuries or playing second-fiddle to Garrett Wilson since being acquired by New York, Adams has experienced a renaissance the last two weeks, catching 18 passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns on 23 targets.
With New York firmly out of playoff contention and the biggest disappointment of the year, Aaron Rodgers has chosen to prove a point — the connection between these two remains strong, and there is little opposing defenses can do when Rodgers has time to throw the ball in a clean pocket.
New York will look to play the spoiler role at home in Week 16 against a Los Angeles Rams squad fighting for one of the final playoff berths in the NFC. Adams’ current 67/860/6 totals are on pace for the worst statistical season of his career since 2017. With him turning 32 next week, one has to wonder if we see the beginning of a precipitous decline.
Anyone currently reading this article should take comfort in knowing they were just as productive this past weekend as Cooper Kupp, who posted a donut for his fantasy managers and pooped in their stockings leading up to Christmas.
During Thursday night’s field goal fest where Los Angeles emerged with a 12-6 victory over San Francisco, Kupp was a total afterthought. Quarterback Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp just three times, marking the lowest weekly total during a complete game in 2024 for the eighth-year veteran.
Kupp has failed to see double-digit targets in his direction since Week 13. He is far behind Puka Nacua in the pecking order. To make matters even worse, the Rams travel to New York in a must-win game against the Jets in Week 16. The Jets surrender the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league (just 193 per game). Downgrade Kupp to a low-end WR2 when making fantasy start sit decisions and hope for the best.
Tight End
STUD: Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
Does anyone remember Sam LaPorta? The consensus TE1 overall during draft season, LaPorta has suffered from a significant sophomore slump, averaging over 10 yards fewer per game with a majorly reduced target share, thanks to the emergence of wideout Jameson Williams.
To anyone who managed to hold onto LaPorta this long and start him confidently against Buffalo, power to you. This was the first time all season LaPorta saw double-digit targets (10), finished with more than six receptions (seven), and broke the century mark with receiving yards (111). Participating in a slugfest with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and 90 points will do that, funny enough.
Simply put, I’m happy LaPorta finally managed to come through for his fantasy managers, but similar to Davante Adams, this is too little, too late. Expect Detroit to revert to a more balanced approach moving forward, with LaPorta continuing to operate behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs for passing targets.
Travis Kelce managers don’t wish to continue this trend. For the second week in a row, the future Hall of Famer finished with fewer than 50 yards and five receptions. He has scored just one touchdown since Week 8.
In a game where quarterback Patrick Mahomes struggled to find anyone open downfield (he averaged a pathetic 4.2 yards per attempt) and wound up injuring his ankle, Kansas City instead leaned upon their running game to move the ball.
Currently listed as “day to day” by head coach Andy Reid following the contest, Mahomes will likely attempt to play through his sprain but was spotted leaving the locker room on a cart for further evaluation. I’m not overly concerned about Mahomes’ status for Week 16 since he seemed confident he could return on Sunday if necessary, but his status is worth monitoring.
If the 13-1 Chiefs are forced to pivot to backup Carson Wentz, Kelce would tumble down next week’s rankings.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
