It’s the final week of the regular season in most fantasy football leagues, and my Friday Discord AMA was jumping with gamers clawing their way into the playoffs or looking ahead at the playoff schedule. The most intriguing questions from this week’s chat were about a pair of rookie running backs. A question also opened the door for me to dive deeper into strategy.
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Friday’s Fantasy Football Discord AMA Recap
Can Gamers Trust Isaac Guerendo in Week 14?
I was surprised by the volume of users asking if they should start Isaac Guerendo this week. It will be the rookie’s first start, and he might not be a genuine workhorse in the Christian McCaffrey or Jordan Mason mold. Still, San Francisco’s other in-house options have been behind Guerendo to this point or were added this week off waivers. Fantasy football stalwarts Josh Norris and Hayden Winks put their thinking caps on earlier this week and suggested Deebo Samuel could get work in the backfield, too.
Nevertheless, Guerendo is the classic Kyle Shanahan running back. He’s a freakish athlete with elite straight-line speed. Guerendo has also flashed his big-play potential in limited opportunities. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 121 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts, Guerendo has gashed defenses for the 10th-highest explosive run rate (9.5%) and tied for the seventh-most yards per carry (5.86).
Guerendo also has a sweet matchup. Per Pro Football Reference, the Bears have coughed up 116.4 rushing yards per game at 4.99 yards per carry to running backs. Running backs have also had 10 rushing touchdowns, 4.33 receptions per game and 31.3 receiving yards per game against the Bears. Finally, Chicago isn’t getting better against the run. Instead, they’ve yielded 142.0 rushing yards per game, 4.73 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns since Week 10. Guerendo is a high-end RB2 or fringe RB1 this week.
Is Braelon Allen a Must-Start Player if Breece Hall (Doubtful) is Out?
Breece Hall is unlikely to play since he has a doubtful designation on the injury report. Braelon Allen’s value will get a boost from Hall’s likely absence, but gamers shouldn’t get over their skis.
First, the Jets are 6.0-point underdogs on the road. Second, since Week 10, the Dolphins have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (82.5), 4.13 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. Third, Isaiah Davis had a season-high 18% snap share versus 28% for Allen in Week 13, possibly not a coincidence since the team had their bye in Week 12 to self-scout.
Gamers might also have a rosier memory of what Allen has been after an eye-catching start as Hall’s direct backup. Allen hasn’t reached 4.0 yards per carry in eight straight games. For the season, he has a pathetic 3.58 yards per carry and a 1.5% explosive run rate.
Despite all the negatives, Allen is a defensible RB2 based on volume expectations and six teams having their bye this week. He’s also a priority bench stash for gamers who don’t need to use him this week. Perhaps the big-bodied running back is the classic running back who gets better with more work. Allen isn’t a must-start player. Still, Allen is the RB33 in half point per reception (half PPR) expert consensus rankings (ECR), the RB30 in standard and the RB34 in PPR. I agree with the range he’s ranked in.
Should Gamers Hold a Mediocre Position Player or Stash a Defense for the Playoffs?
A Discord user asked me if they should hold Javonte Williams as a bench stash or dump him for a defense with a favorable playoff schedule. I didn’t hesitate to tell them to make the switch. It’s the time of the year to dump bye-week fill-ins and low-ceiling contingency plans for high-upside handcuffs and players, including defenses, with favorable playoff schedules. Gamers forced to start Williams or similarly lousy running backs or wideouts because of injuries ahead of them will likely get ousted from the playoffs anyway. Therefore, it makes more sense to plan as if you’ll have your best players to increase your odds, even incrementally, to win your league’s championship.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
