I whiffed on all three of my bold predictions last week. My season tally is at 11-29 (0.275). The clock is running out for me to lift my batting average to my goal of 0.333. I’ll attempt to get back on track with this week’s trio of bold predictions.

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Fantasy Football Week 16 Bold Predictions

Matthew Stafford Will Be a Top-10 Quarterback in Week 16

Matthew Stafford is only QB15 in this week’s expert consensus rankings (ECR). The veteran gunslinger had a forgettable effort in a rainy divisional game against the 49ers on a quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football last week. I’m giving Stafford a pass. He’s a dangerous passer when he has his weapons.

Stafford is the QB14 in points per game (18.4) since Week 8. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 8, Stafford is seventh in passing yards per game (258.9) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (16). He’s cooking lately and has a non-terrifying matchup and decent betting info. The Jets are midpack in fantasy points allowed per game (16.8) to quarterbacks this season, and Los Angeles has an implied total of 24.75 points.

Dalton Kincaid Will Be a Top-10 Tight End in All Scoring Formats in Week 16

Dalton Kincaid hasn’t made a sophomore leap into being a fantasy difference-maker. However, the 2023 first-round pick has drastically underperformed his expected fantasy scoring. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 51 tight ends with at least 125 routes this year, Kincaid is 10th in half-point per reception (half PPR) expected points per game (10.3).

Out of the same sample of tight ends, Kincaid is fifth in air yards share (20.6%), first in targets per route run (0.28), 10th in yards per route run (1.83) and tied for 15th in end zone targets (four) despite missing three games. Gamers can take a glass-half-empty or a glass-half-full view of Kincaid’s performance last week.

Kincaid ran 20 routes versus 22 for Dawson Knox in Week 15. However, it was Kincaid’s first game back from a multi-week absence, and he was still third on the club in route participation rate (54.1%), first in air yards share (23.5%), tied for first in target share (20.6%), first in targets per route run (0.35), third in receptions (four), third in receiving yards (53), fourth in yards per route run (2.65), second in first-read percentage (25.0%) and had a touchdown reception wiped away by an egregious holding call — I’m definitely not tilting about the call knocking one of my best ball teams out of the playoffs.

He had a blistering 15.5 half PPR expected points last week. The Bills have an implied total of 30.25 points this week. As a result, Kincaid has touchdown potential in an explosive offense projected to light up the scoreboard. Finally, the Patriots have allowed the 13th-most half PPR fantasy points per game (9.9) to tight ends this season.

Jalen Coker Will Be a Top-36 Wide Receiver in All Scoring Formats in Week 16

Jalen Coker scored a somewhat flukey 83-yard touchdown last week on a blown coverage, yet he had the wheels to erase a defensive back’s angle and make it happen.

NFL’s Fastest Ball Carriers from Week 15 ????

???? Jerome Ford, @Browns: 21.70 mph
???? Antonio Gibson, @Patriots: 21.17 mph
???? Jalen Coker, @Panthers: 21.15 mph

Watch the Top 5: pic.twitter.com/Wqn2UlCXQA

– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 18, 2024

The speed wasn’t surprising to anyone who followed Coker during the pre-NFL Draft process.

Jalen Coker is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.46 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 167 out of 3063 WR from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projectedhttps://t.co/Ex1QgF0uRy pic.twitter.com/DOP66JsUay

– Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024

The undrafted free agent from Holy Cross has forced his way up the depth chart. He’s exceeded 75 receiving yards with a touchdown in two of his previous four games. In those contests, Coker had a 73.3% route participation rate, 13.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 35.5% air yards share, 19.7% target share, 0.23 targets per route run, 24.4% first-read percentage, 13 receptions (3.25 per game), 265 receiving yards (66.3 per game), 2.68 yards per route run, two receiving touchdowns, three end zone targets and 12.9 expected half PPR points per game.

Coker is the ECR WR49 in standard leagues this week, the WR49 in half PPR and the WR48 in PPR. However, I’m buying into his production and view him as a top-40 WR in all scoring formats this week, making him a borderline WR3.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.