In most competitive fantasy football leagues, the first playoff matchups occurred over the weekend. Countless hours of research and preparation have led to this all-important stretch of games to secure the championship.
If you find yourself in this situation, it’s certainly an indication you’ve been an effective manager this season. You’ve correctly identified player trends and have thus assembled a roster fit to challenge for first-place honors.
That said, the work does not stop here. This far into the season, it remains important to keep a close eye on player outlooks and recent performance trends. You can hardly afford to roster a struggling fantasy asset at this juncture.
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In what follows, I’ll outline the players whose recent output is set to spark a shift in perceived value. Based on their recent body of work, I’ll assess whether these players can be trusted as we head deeper into the fantasy football playoffs.
NFL Players Trending Up & Down
Fantasy Football Risers
We’ve seen a drastic shift in the Miami Dolphins’ target distribution this season. What was once a high-flying, deep-ball-prominent offense spearheaded by the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been simplified to a large extent. Most of Tua Tagovailoa‘s throws have come very close to the line of scrimmage. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tagovailoa has averaged a mere six yards of depth per target.
This new-look passing attack has mostly benefitted Jonnu Smith, who typically occupies the shorter areas of the field. He’s tallied a minimum of 15.3 half-PPR fantasy points in four of the past five contests and has performed as the overall TE1 over that span.
Smith currently leads the Dolphins in receptions and is second to Hill in targets. To his credit, Smith has made the most of the opportunity Mike McDaniel has provided him with. Among tight ends with at least 50 targets, he currently ranks fourth in receiving grade, third in yards per route run and sixth in yards after the catch per reception, per PFF.
In what’s now become a lost season for the Dolphins, it’d be hard to foresee a sudden shift in offensive philosophy. In an attempt to preserve Tagovailoa’s health, the team will continue to emphasize the screen game centered around the likes of Smith and De’Von Achane. Smith, who continues to be extremely efficient with his volume, will remain a rock-solid TE1. He should be started without any hesitation.
After a scintillating start to his career in Jacksonville, Brian Thomas’ season took an unexpected turn for the worse as he dealt with lingering chest/rib ailments. To make matters worse, Trevor Lawrence being moved to injured reserve (IR) meant the Jaguars would be reliant upon backup quarterback Mac Jones for the remainder of the season. In light of this, most fantasy managers assumed Thomas would no longer be a viable fantasy start sit asset.
However, Thomas’ Week 15 performance indicated he’s developed a strong rapport with the interim starting quarterback. The rookie sensation accumulated an impressive 10 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. Seeing as his 14 targets accounted for 32.6% of Jones’ attempts against the Jets, Thomas appears on track to earn an elite target share once more.
Thomas’ efficiency metrics are off the charts. According to PFF, he currently ranks third in yards after the catch per reception and 12th in yards per route run among wide receivers with at least 60 targets. He’s been the lone bright spot in what’s otherwise been a disastrous season for the Jacksonville offense.
All told, Thomas is an exciting talent whose volume should propel him toward solid fantasy football output. He should be ranked as a volatile WR2 for weeks to come.
Fantasy Football Fallers
DK Metcalf has quietly struggled since returning from injury in Week 11. He’s now failed to surpass 70 receiving yards or score a touchdown in five consecutive contests. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a bona fide star at the wide receiver position, is Metcalf’s role as the Seahawks’ No. 1 WR in jeopardy?
PFF’s metrics would suggest the sophomore has been the more efficient receiver. Smith-Njigba is currently out-performing Metcalf in terms of receiving grade, yards per route run, yards after the catch per reception and contested catch percentage. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb values Smith Njigba’s skills as a savvy route-runner and has developed a scheme tailored to his abilities.
Overall, this is an offense that has somewhat struggled as of late. The Seahawks have surpassed 20 points in only two of their past seven contests. What’s more, quarterback Geno Smith currently sports a 14:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This simply won’t get it done for Metcalf managers, who’ve been provided with an uninspiring 7.6 half-PPR fantasy points per game since his return.
There are nevertheless some silver linings. For one, Metcalf is a proven commodity in the NFL and has accumulated a minimum of 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Smith also remains among the league’s best deep-ball throwers. Per PFF, he’s earned a grade of 95.5 on throws 20+ yards downfield. Expect Smith and Metcalf to connect for a couple of signature deep touchdowns.
Smith-Njigba’s presence as a consistent target earner in this offense certainly adds more volatility to Metcalf’s weekly fantast output. However, his undeniable talent makes him worthy of a start on any given week. He should be viewed as a risky WR2 in what’s to come.
Isiah Pacheco’s fibula injury derailed what could have been yet another impressive season for the young running back. As the lead back in one of the league’s most coveted offenses, Pacheco’s fantasy football upside rivaled the elites at the position. However, he’s struggled to exhibit this upside since returning from injury in Week 13 and is yet to surpass 7.10 half-PPR fantasy points.
What’s caused Pacheco’s underwhelming fantasy output is the full-blown timeshare in the Chiefs’ backfield. Veteran back Kareem Hunt performed admirably in Pacheco’s absence and has maintained a relevant role since his return. Hunt earned the same amount of carries (13) as Pacheco in the team’s most recent victory against the Browns.
Pacheco’s efficiency metrics have also left much to be desired. Among backs with at least 40 carries, he ranks 39th in rushing grade, 50th in yards after contact per attempt and 54th in elusive rating, per PFF. This level of effectiveness isn’t enough to compensate for the lack of volume he’s received as of late.
Much has been said about the Chiefs’ unexpected struggles on the offensive side of the ball. The team currently ranks 12th with 23.5 points per game. This is hardly the output you’d expect from the defending Super Bowl Champions.
To make matters worse, superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes appears to have suffered an ankle injury that figures to sideline him for a few weeks. With a backup quarterback under center, the offensive ecosystem surrounding Pacheco is far from ideal. His touchdown upside is not nearly as appealing as it’s been in the past.
All told, Pacheco doesn’t warrant being started in your fantasy football playoff matchups. There is simply too much downside with the committee backfield being run in Kansas City. This carry distribution will be one to monitor in the coming weeks.
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