Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

• LAR -2.5, O/U 49.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Rams have ranked seventh in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 10, New Orleans has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and ranked ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara
• Kyren Williams
• Cooper Kupp
• Puka Nacua

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Since Week 8, with all of his weapons back, Stafford has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Since that time, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 15th in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, second in passing touchdowns, and 12th in passer rating. He has been balling out, and he’s primed to continue his QB1 production this week. Since Week 7, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and the fifth-most passing yards per game while also ranking 17th in CPOE and 16th in EPA per dropback. Stafford should carve them up.

Derek Carr (QB)

Carr has played well in his last two starts with QB6 and QB17 weekly finishes. Since Week 10, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked tenth in passing yards per game, second in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and tenth in CPOE. Carr faces a Rams pass defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback. Carr will flirt with QB1 production again this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)

In his last two games, Valdes-Scantling has finished as the WR2 and WR22 in weekly fantasy scoring. I know what you’re thinking…”There’s no way that he can keep this up.” Well, you’re probably right, but there’s a path for Valdes-Scantling to continue to thread the needle this week. Since Week 10, he has had a 68.4% route share, a 13% target share, a 46.6% air-yard share (26.4 aDOT), 5.03 YPRR, and an 18.4% first-read share. 57.1% of his target volume has been via deep targets. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. The Rams have also had issues with defending deep passing all season. They have allowed the 12th-most deep passing yards per game and the fourth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Since Week 8, Robinson has had an 11.8% target share, averaging 37.2 receiving yards per game with 1.23 YPRR and a 12.8% first-read share. He leads the team during this span in end-zone targets with six. He has been a touchdown-scoring machine with five scores in his last five games. I won’t be surprised if he scores again this week against the Saints’ soft secondary. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Since Week 8, Hill has been the TE2 in fantasy points per game behind only George Kittle. Yes, his Week 11 performance is skewing that figure some, but Hill also posted 16 PPR points in Week 9, so let’s not act like that one game is hopelessly leading people astray. Since Week 10, Hill has had a 57.9% route share while leading the team with a 22.2% target share with 2.61 YPRR and a team-leading 23.7% first-read share. Hill has been not only a rushing threat with five carries and 47.8 rushing yards per game since Week 8, but he has also been operating as New Orleans’ WR1 without Chris Olave. Since Week 8, the Rams have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game. Los Angeles has also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Regardless of how you approach Hill’s role, he has a wonderful matchup this week.

*None of the Rams’ tight ends are fantasy-viable now. They split up the routes in Week 12 with no play, seeing more than a 42.9% route share.*

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

• N/A

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3, O/U 51
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Philly has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL. During the same timeframe, the Ravens have ranked second in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• Derrick Henry
• A.J. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in deep targets among wideouts. He has finally seen his red zone usage return with three red zone looks across his last four games after zero red zone targets in Weeks 3-8. Flowers has a 25% target share, 2.34 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Since Week 8, Philly has ranked ninth in single high rate (58%). Against single-high, Flowers has had a 28.5% target share, 3.18 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Philly’s secondary has been exceptional, so starting Flowers this week is a bet on talent and offensive environment. Since Week 7, Philly has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

DeVonta Smith (WR)
Smith didn’t practice on Wednesday (hamstring), but he closed the week with limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable for Week 13. Smith is the WR32 in fantasy points per game. Philly’s heavy lean on the run game has hurt his weekly floor, with less than 30 receiving yards in three of his last five games. He’s also only seen two red zone targets over his last seven games, so it’s not likely that a touchdown will save him weekly. With all that said, Baltimore has been a defense that has been far easier to pass against all season, which should help Philly’s passing volume this week and Smith’s fantasy outlook. Smith has a 23.3% target share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. He faces a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Goedert is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, with two red zone targets in his last three games. Last week, he didn’t take advantage of a glorious matchup as Philly just fed Saquon Barkley all day in lieu of throwing the ball. Hopefully, Baltimore’s awesome run defense and the Ravens’ explosive offense will force Philly’s hand and make them take to the air this week. Goedert has an 18.3% target share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 22.5% first-read share. He faces a Baltimore pass defense that has given up the third-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

This isn’t the game to consider Bateman in your flex spots. Since Week 8, Philly has ranked ninth in single high rate (58%). Against single-high, Bateman has only had a 13.4% target share with 1.22 YPRR and a 14.5% first-read share. Philly’s pass defense has also been incredible recently. Since Week 7, Philly has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Bateman.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

I don’t know why Baltimore made the trade for Diontae Johnson at this point. Was this just done to block another team from getting him? I have no clue at this point. Last week, Johnson ran four routes. Yep, just four routes. He remains waiver wire fodder.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Since Week 5, Andrews has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 58.6% route share with a 14.9% target share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. Andrews overcame a tough matchup last week against a Bolts secondary that hadn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to tight ends all year, so I won’t discount that he could do it again this week. Philly has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and only one receiving touchdown to tight ends this season.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• BUF -6, O/U 44.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, Buffalo has been pass-heavy, ranking 11th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate. During the same time frame, the 49ers have had the slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate.

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 10, with Purdy under center, Jennings has had a 32.8% target share, a 38.8% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and a 41.3% first-read share. In those two games, he had four red zone targets and finished as the WR15 and the WR7 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 7, Buffalo has allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings should step up with another solid performance this week.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman has been limited in practice all week (wrist). He has been listed as questionable. Coleman is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with three games as a WR3 or higher this season (WR36, WR15, WR16). He has a 13.6% target share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share. Coleman has four red zone targets in his last three games played. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (59.3%). Against single-high, Coleman has seen his target share climb to 14.1% with 2.69 YPRR. Since Week 7, the 49ers have ranked 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy practiced in full on Friday and will start this week. Purdy is the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, ninth in CPOE, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. He is a fringe QB1 this week against a pass defense that has shown some cracks in the pavement lately. Since Week 7, Buffalo has held passers to the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and the 11th-lowest passer rating, but they have also allowed the fifth-highest CPOE, the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, and the 15th-most passing touchdowns in this stretch.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR22 in fantasy points per game. During this stretch, he has had a 23.5% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 31.2% first-read share. He has been Buffalo’s high-volume underneath threat. He has six red zone targets across his last five games. Shakir will see plenty of volume this week, but keep expectations in check. Since Week 7, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Amari Cooper (WR)

In his last two games played for Buffalo, Cooper has had only a 54.9% route share, a 6.8% target share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. It’s tough to get excited about Cooper right now. He practiced in full all week, so hopefully, his route share will increase this week. That’s also making the assumption that he has had the necessary time to ingest the playbook fully. Since Week 7, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Cooper is a sketchy flex play this week.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Samuel has had a tough season as the WR42 in fantasy points per game. He has four red zone targets in his last three games with Purdy starting, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6. Since Week 8, he has had a 22.2% target share, producing only 51.7 receiving yards per game with 1.74 YPRR and a 28.6% first-read share. We’ll see if Samuel can get back on track this week. Samuel could struggle, though, as Buffalo has limited yards after the catch this season. They have held receivers to the sixth-fewest yards after the catch per reception and the 12th-fewest missed tackles.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Pearsall isn’t playable in fantasy this week. He hasn’t had a single receiving yard over the last two games. He has only two targets over his last two games. Stash him on the bench if you have the space, but if you need the bench spot for another player, you can safely cut Pearsall.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid has been ruled out (knee). 

Dawson Knox (TE)

In Week 11, Kincaid missed the game, and Knox was the full-time starter for Buffalo. Knox had a 75.6% route share, a 15% target share, 1.18 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. He finished with four receptions and 40 receiving yards as the TE17 for the week. He’s headed for another TE2 finish this week. San Francisco has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest yards per reception to tight ends.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• DEN -5.5, O/U 42
• Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Winston starting, Cleveland had ranked sixth and fourth in neutral pace and neutral passing rate. Denver has taken a similar approach since Week 8, ranking eighth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Courtland Sutton

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Since Week 5, Nix has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. He has been awesome. I won’t be surprised if he swoops in and steals the Offensive Rookie of the Year award away from Jayden Daniels. Since Week 5, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix ranks fourth in passing touchdowns, seventh in passer rating, sixth in CPOE, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. He should have another baller game this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has looked nothing like the pass defense we feared last year, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Devaughn Vele (WR)

Vele has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in weekly scoring in two of his last three games (WR21, WR22). He has two red zone targets in those three games. Since Week 10, Vele has had a 17.1% target share, 3.79 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. He’s a strong flex play again this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jameis Winston (QB)

In his four starts, Winson has finished as a QB1 twice (QB10, QB7). Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 18th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, second in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in catchable target rate. He faces a tough Denver secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback. Winston is a middling QB2 this week.

Nick Chubb (RB)

It hasn’t been pretty for Chubb since returning. Last week, he played a season-high 66% of the snaps with 21 touches and 60 total yards. The two scores saved his day. Over the last two weeks, he still hasn’t looked like his former self, with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 2.16 yards after contact per attempt. This week’s matchup with Denver won’t help evoke good memories of Chubb, either. Since Week 7, Denver has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest rushing success rate and they have the third-highest stuff rate.

Javonte Williams (RB)

No. Nope. No Denver Broncos running back should grace your starting lineup. There’s no way I can trust a Denver running back in fantasy right now. After Williams led the way against the Falcons with 13 touches and 87 total yards in Week 11, he face-planted in Week 12. Yes, he played 56% of the snaps, but he only had ten touches and turned them into four total yards. Keep Williams on your rosters with the hope that this becomes a backfield we can trust again, but there’s no way anyone can start him with a shred of confidence right now.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

The Jeudy revenge game narratives could get squashed quickly this week if Patrick Surtain shadows him. For whatever reason, Surtain hasn’t shadowed since Week 10, but don’t count out Surtain shadowing Jeudy this week. Does anyone think that Denver wants Jeudy to pop off with a big game and rub it in their faces? I highly doubt it. The easiest way to keep that from happening is to put their best defensive player in his back pocket all game. Surtain has followed receivers on at least 60.4% of their routes five times this season. In those games, no receiver has eclipsed 30 receiving yards in his primary coverage. With Winston under center, Jeudy has had a 21.7% target share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 25.2% first-read share as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He has two red zone targets in those four games. Since Week 7, Denver has allowed the 15th-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Elijah Moore (WR)

With Winston starting, Moore has been the WR43 in fantasy points per game with two top 24 wide receiver weekly finishes (WR22, WR14). He has had a 20.5% target share, 1.49 YPRR, one red zone target, and a 22.7% first-read share. Moore is a flex play better left on your bench this week. Since Week 7, Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Tillman has been ruled out for Week 13 (concussion).

David Njoku (TE)

With Winston under center, Njoku has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He has had a 16.8% target share, 1.25 YPRR, and a 15.1% first-read share. He has only two red zone targets across his last four games. I’d be looking for a streaming option this week instead of playing Njoku. Denver has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -10.5, O/U 48.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Thomas Brown calling the plays, Chicago has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 16th in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last four games, Detroit has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this year. On a per-dropback basis, he has been amazing. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. Goff should rip the Bears’ secondary in half this week. Since Week 7, the Bears have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest CPOE. They have massively struggled to defend deep passing during this stretch, giving up the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Over the last two weeks, Williams has played much better with Thomas Brown at the helm. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 11th in passing yards per game and CPOE, 19th in yards per attempt, 20th in aDOT, and sixth in hero throw rate. Brown has tried to keep things simple for Williams, as he has had the third-highest first-read throw rate. While Williams did utilize his legs again in Week 12 (six carries and 33 rushing yards), he had only one designed run (four in Week 11). Williams carved up the Vikings last week (QB4), so I won’t bet against him doing the same to Detroit this week. It will be a tough test, though. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest CPOE, and the third-fewest passing touchdowns. Williams should have time to read the field. Since Week 11, even with Za’Darius Smith helping out, Detroit has had the 11th-slowest time to pressure and the sixth-lowest pressure rate.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery got banged up last week (shoulder), but he looks to be good to go this week. Montgomery has stated that he could have gone back into the game last week, but Dan Campbell held him out with a short week ahead. Montgomery is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.6 touches and 79.4 total yards per game. Among 54 qualifying backs, Montgomery is 13th in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Montgomery should be an integral part of a Detroit rushing attack that should flourish in Week 13. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards before contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Montgomery 64.8% zone).

Roschon Johnson (RB)

Over the last two games, Johnson has averaged 40% of the snaps, seven touches, and 26.5 total yards. He has scored in back-to-back games while taking over the goal line role. He has played 83% of the snaps inside the five-yard line for Chicago since Week 11. I won’t be surprised if Johnson gets an uptick in his usage this week against Detroit. Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and had the fourth-highest stuff rate. Detroit’s kryptonite has been with defending gap runs. This season, Detroit has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest stuff rate, and the seventh-highest missed tackle rate to gap runs. I will say, though, that they have faced the seventh-fewest gap rushing attempts (77), but that is still a decent sample.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen is coming off a huge game, and he’s primed for another banner day in Week 13. Last week, he had a 31.3% target share with nine grabs, 86 receiving yards, and a 36.8% first-read share. Since Week 11, Allen has led the team with a 29.1% target share and 33.8% first-read share while also having a 1.61 YPRR and an end zone target. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Allen has led the team with a 28% TPRR and 34.5% first-read share while ranking second with 2.22 YPRR. Detroit has bled out production to slot receivers all year, allowing the most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, seeing nine deep targets and five red zone targets in his nine games played. He still hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 2, so if he scores this week, it’ll have to be from a big play. Williams has a 17.3% target share, a 34.1% air-yard share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, Williams ranks fourth in TPRR (17%), fourth in YPRR (2.07), and second in first-read share (19.5%). If Goff is looking to challenge the Bears’ secondary deep, Williams should be a big part of the game plan. He leads the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Since Week 7, the Bears have given up the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tim Patrick (WR)

I won’t be surprised if Patrick pops a big play this week. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, Patrick ranks fourth on the team in TPRR (18%) while having 1.72 YPRR against the coverage. Patrick ranks second on the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Since Week 7, the Bears have given up the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

LaPorta looks finally fully healthy. Last week, he played 93% of the snaps, which is the second time this season he has played more than 90% of the snaps. LaPorta is the TE17 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, LaPorta is third on the team in TPRR (18%) while ranking third in YPRR (2.17) and first-read share (16%). Chicago has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Over the last two games, Swift has averaged 16 touches and 74.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 54% of the snaps overall, with 67% of the rushing play snaps, 47% of the passing down snaps, and sadly, only 22% of the inside the five-yard line snaps (Roschon Johnson 83%). Swift lost the goal line role to Johson, but he retained the lead in early down work while splitting the passing downs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift will run into brick walls all day against Detroit. Since Week 6, they have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the seventh-lowest yards per carry to zone runs, and the third-lowest success rate to zone runs (since Brown has been the offensive coordinator, Swift 59% zone).

DJ Moore (WR)

Over the last two games, Moore has had a 17.7% target share (third on the team), 1.91 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share (third on the team). He has been the underneath/manufactured touch player, with 57.1% of his targets being designed and having only a 1.8 aDOT (25 air yards). Moore is eighth among wide receivers in red zone targets, but he has only one red zone look over his last four games. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Moore has ranked fourth in TPRR (17%), first in YPRR (2.37), and second in first-read share (24.1%). Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Also not working in Moore’s favor is the fact that Detroit has allowed the second-fewest yards after the catch per reception.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Over the last two games, Odunze has had a 24.1% target share, a 39% air-yard share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share (second on the team). He has led the team with two end-zone targets. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Odunze has ranked second in TPRR (23%) and first-read share (24.1%) while posting only 1.55 YPRR. This is a tough matchup for him. Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet is the TE14 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets among the position. Kmet sadly hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 6. Since Week 11, he has had a 65.2% route share, a 16.5% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share. Kmet will have a tough day in Week 13 against a pass defense that has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -4, O/U 38
• New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, the Giants had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
• With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas has ranked sixth in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Rush has finished as the QB33, QB19, and QB9 in his three starts this season. Over the last two weeks, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 14th in CPOE, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. Rush shouldn’t have many problems with the Giants’ pass defense. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the seventh-highest CPOE.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Last week, Dallas actually stayed competitive, and we saw Dowdle play 61% of the snaps with 22 touches and 98 total yards. Since Week 9, he has found his stride. Among 40 qualifying backs, he has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle should steamroll the Giants this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, and the highest yards after contact per attempt.

CeeDee Lamb (WR)

With Cooper Rush as the starter, Lamb has had a 26.5% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share. He has had only one end-zone target. Lamb has been peppered with short area targets with his 5.7 aDOT. He has finished as the WR14 in weekly scoring in each of the last two weeks. Since Week 7, New York has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Lamb will get fed PPR goodness again this week. His floor has been established with the volume from Rush. The question now is, can he provide a higher ceiling with this week’s matchup? We’ll see.

Malik Nabers (WR)

Last week, Nabers finished as the WR25 for the week with a 28.1% target share, a 43.9% air-yard share, 64 receiving yards (1.73 YPRR), and a 34.8% first-read share. Nabers is in a similar situation as Lamb. Plenty of low-calorie targets are being fed in his direction weekly, but the offensive environment and putrid quarterback play are neutering him into a volume-based WR2. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. We’ll see if Nabers can take advantage of the plus matchup with DeVito under duress and chucking spoiled cutlets at him all day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tommy DeVito (QB)

Last week, DeVito finished as the QB24 in fantasy. Among 28 quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate. It was the type of outing that everyone should have expected from DeVito. New York looks like a team that has given up. They leaned extremely run-heavy when the game was close in an attempt to hide DeVito. Dallas hasn’t been fielding a strong pass defense, but that might not matter against DeVito. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE. DeVito had a splendid matchup against the Bucs last week, but he couldn’t do anything. It might be much of the same this week, especially considering that since Week 7, Dallas has had the sixth-fastest time to pressure and has ranked 13th in pressure rate. Last week, DeVito was pressured on 51.3% of his dropbacks (led the NFL, minimum of 15 dropbacks). DeVito might not play this week, though. He’s dealing with a forearm injury, so we’ll have to see if he can suit up. If he can’t go, Drew Lock will start.

Drew Lock (QB)

If Tommy DeVito can’t play this week, Lock will start for the Giants. The last time that we saw Lock starting was in 2023 when he started two games for Seattle. Among 53 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Lock ranked 32nd in passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate, and 44th in big-time throw rate. He finished as the QB17 and QB25 in weekly scoring in those starts. Lock should be a small upgrade over DeVito this week if he makes the start, but he’s being thrown into a rough situation. Last week, DeVito was pressured on 51.3% of his dropbacks (led the NFL, minimum of 15 dropbacks). Lock will be under duress all day if he draws the start. Since Week 7, Dallas has had the sixth-fastest time to pressure and has ranked 13th in pressure rate. If he can navigate the pressure, he could post decent numbers against what has been a bad pass defense. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Last week, before Tracy fumbled at the beginning of the third quarter, Tracy’s role was solidified as the early down hammer. He played 67% of the rushing play snaps but only 22% of the passing down snaps, as Singletary handled the bulk of passing downs (67%). In the second half, the backfield dissolved into a three-headed committee. The Giants’ backfield could be watered down into a situation like Denver’s in the upcoming weeks, where they deploy the “hot hand,” which makes essentially no one playable from the backfield. Right now, I don’t necessarily think that’s the case, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the team approaches it like that this week. Tracy has proven to be a talented rusher. Among 54 qualifying backs, Tracy ranks eighth in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest yards before contact per attempt. It’s questionable whether Tracy will be able to take advantage of it, though. He could be saddled with a volume-limiting committee approach this week or be game-scripted out if Devin Singletary takes over as the Giants’ are getting throttled.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson has dissolved into a low-end PPR flex play only. Last week, he had a 15.6% target share, a 5.8 aDOT, 47 receiving yards, and a 21.7% first-read share. Since Week 7, Robinson has managed double-digit fantasy points only once. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 8. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the highest PPR points per target to slot receivers, but it’s a consistent theme with this offense. After considering the quarterback play and offensive environment, I don’t know if Robinson can excel this week.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks will likely be active this week, but with Rush under center and Cook’s snap rate uncertain for Week 13, he’s not fantasy viable this week. Pick him up in deep leagues if you have the bench space, but he’s not a priority add.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Last week, Johnson had an 18.8% target share (six targets), a 21.7% first-read share, and a 60% route share. He finished with three receptions and 39 receiving yards in a fantastic matchup for tight ends. You know where I’m going with this. Dallas is a nice matchup for Johnson this week, but this offense hinders every skill player. Johnson is a low-end streaming option only. He has only one red zone target this season (Week 3). Dallas has allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Luke Schoonmaker (TE)

With Jake Ferguson out this week (concussion), Schoonmaker will be the primary receiving tight end for Dallas again this week. Schoonmaker has finished as the TE9 in fantasy in each of the last two weeks. Since Week 11, he has had a 50% route share, a 14.8% target share, 2.31 YPRR (55 receiving yards per game), and an 18.6% first-read share. He hasn’t seen a red zone target in either game. This isn’t a good matchup for Schoonmaker. New York has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson has been ruled out (concussion).

Rush has shown a propensity to feed CeeDee Lamb and whoever is playing tight end for Dallas weekly. Until further notice, no one else in this passing attack is fantasy-viable.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -3, O/U 47
• Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Tua Tagovailoa back, Miami has operated with the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-best neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 4, Green Bay has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs
• De’Von Achane

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Love (QB)

Love is the QB9 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 performances in his nine games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards per game, 14th in CPOE, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Miami pass defense that has been a middle-of-the-road unit since Week 7, allowing the 16th-most passing yards per game, the 15th-most passing touchdowns, and the 16th-highest success rate per dropback. One area that Love will expose this week is Miami’s struggles to defend deep passing. Love has the second-highest deep ball rate in the NFL, behind only Anthony Richardson. Miami has faced the eighth-fewest deep attempts, but they have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed has fallen all the way to WR26 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, he has eclipsed 60 receiving yards in a game only twice and seen only three red zone targets during that span. This could be a bounce-back spot for Reed. With Kader Kohou in the starting slot corner spot, Miami has been tough against the slot. In Weeks 1-7, Miami held slot receivers to the 13th-lowest PPR points per target. Since Week 10, with his return to the lineup, Miami has kept slot receivers in check, giving up the eighth-lowest PPR points per target. The coverage matchup leans in Reed’s direction, though. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Reed has ranked second on the team with a 23% TPRR, first in YPRR (2.56), and first in first-read share (25%).

Christian Watson (WR)

If Love is looking to attack Miami deep this week, Watson should be a big part of the equation. Watson leads the team with 14 deep targets. Miami has faced the eighth-fewest deep attempts, but they have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Please, Watson, for the love of everything holy and sacred in this world…catch the dang ball when it’s thrown your way deep. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Watson ranks fifth on the team in TPRR (16%), but he ranks second behind only Reed in YPRR (2.13). Since Week 7, Miami has allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks (WR)

If Doubs misses the game this week, Wicks will be a starter again for Week 13. Wicks (like Watson) should be highly involved if Love is going to challenge this secondary deep. He ranks second on the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Wicks has led the team in TPRR (27%) and ranks second in first-read share (20.5%), but he has ranked fifth in YPRR (1.20). If he can convert on a deep target (or two), he’ll pay off, but it’s tough to project this week as his efficiency has dropped off against two high. Since Week 7, Miami has allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Since Jordan Love‘s return in Week 4, Kraft has been the TE9 in fantasy with a 12% target share, 1.52 YPRR, a 12.7% first-read share, and six red zone targets. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Kraft has seen his target share rise to 15.2% with 1.86 YPRR and a 14.8% first-read share. Kraft is a fringe TE1 this week against a pass defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game while also ranking 17th in fantasy points per game given up to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game, with two games with at least 23.7 PPR points. Across his last five games, he has led the team with a 20% target share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. He has four red zone targets in his last four games. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Smith has seen his target share rise to 22.9% with 2.46 YPRR and a 27.5% first-read share. Smith should smash again. Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tagovailoa has finished as a QB1 in each of the last two games (QB11, QB3) while ranking as the QB14 in fantasy points per game since his return. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and 13th in CPOE. Miami has fundamentally changed its offensive approach, ditching deep passing for underneath passing. Tagovailoa has the lowest aDOT among all qualifying quarterbacks, and the second-highest percentage of his passing yards have come via yards after the catch (61.2%). Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and has ranked 16th in yards per attempt. Working in Tagovailoa’s favor is the fact that, since Week 7, Green Bay has also allowed the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. This doesn’t project as a smash matchup for him, though.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Hill has only seen an 18.8% target share, a 34.2% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead) while producing 1.90 YPRR and 55.4 receiving yards per game. Since Week 8, Hill has six red zone targets. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Hill has had only a 16.5% target share with 1.36 YPRR and an 18.8% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, and I don’t think it will get any better this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

I’m not chasing Waddle’s explosive outing last week. I love the player and the talent, but I hate his usage this season. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Waddle has had a 15.3% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 15.7% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, as he has averaged only 55.8 receiving yards per game. Waddle has only one red zone target since Week 7. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Waddle has had only a 14.7% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs has been ruled out (concussion).

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn

*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*