Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3.5, O/U 45
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Minnesota has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate. In the same span, Arizona has ranked 12th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral rushing rate.

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

• N/A

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray has continued his Jekyll and Hyde ways as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Murray has four games this season where he has finished as a top-five quarterback in weekly fantasy scoring (five QB1 weeks), but he has also finished as the QB15 or lower in six games. Every week is a dice roll. Which version of Murray are we likely to see this week? Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 20th in CPOE, and 38th in highly accurate throw rate. Two staples of Brian Flores’ defense this year have been blitzing and two high coverage. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate and two high coverage rate (68.4%). Against the blitz, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray ranks 24th in passing grade and has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Against two-high coverage, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray is 25th in fantasy points per dropback and 20th in CPOE. This looks like another tough week for Murray. Another issue with Murray is that his rushing equity has disappeared. He has surpassed 21 rushing yards in a game only once since Week 5. Stream a quarterback this week instead of playing Murray.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Darnold is the QB11 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 finishes this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, second in CPOE, and 15th in highly accurate throw rate. Don’t expect Darnold to light it up this week. Since Week 7, Arizona has played well, allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in snap share and 13th in weighted opportunities and red zone touches. He has averaged 19.2 touches and 98.4 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 30th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones is headed for a long day. Since Week 7, Arizona has held backs to the lowest explosive run rate, the second-highest stuff rate, and the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game.

James Conner (RB)

Conner is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in snap share and weighted opportunities and eighth in red zone touches. He has averaged 17.7 touches and 100.3 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Conner will be running into brick walls this week. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr.’s rookie season has been a resounding disappointment. He is the WR39 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in deep targets among wide receivers. He has only two touchdowns and one red zone target since Week 5. This week’s matchup won’t help his season-long numbers either. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.4%). Two high coverage has been Harrison Jr.’s kryptonite. Against two high, Harrison has a 17.9% target share, 1.46 YPRR, and a 25.7% first-read share. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-highest receiving yards per game and PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Still, I don’t know if Harrison will be able to take advantage of the soft secondary.

Jordan Addison (WR)

After last week’s surprisingly massive game, Addison is now the WR33 in fantasy points per game. He has ten deep targets and only four red zone targets in his ten games played. He has seen three of those red-zone looks in the last four games. Since Week 6, Arizona has had the ninth-highest two high rate in the NFL (53.3%). Against two high, Addison has a 16.6% target share, 2.07 YPRR, and an 18.9% first-read share. Addison’s efficiency is encouraging that he can possibly overcome this week’s tough matchup. Since Week 7, Arizona has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Murray hasn’t been playing well enough to consistently support anyone through the air outside of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson is likely headed toward another quiet day. Wilson has finished with less than eight PPR points in 64% of his games this season. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.4%). Against two high, Wilson has had a 14.9% target share, 1.21 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share. Sit Wilson.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Hockenson is the TE9 in fantasy points per game this season and has seen two red zone targets in his four games played. He has a 17.1% target share, 2.33 YPRR, and a 16.9% first-read share. He played a season-high 68% of the snaps last week and had a 76.3% route share. Hockenson will remain a TE1 but don’t expect a smash game from him in Week 13. Arizona has held tight ends to the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards per reception, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -6, O/U 44.5
• Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Will Levis starting again, Tennessee has had the third-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate. Since Week 10, Washington has ranked second in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

In the three games with Levis back, Ridley has finished as the WR3, WR41, and WR20 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen a 26.6% target share, a 52.5% air-yard share, and a 33.9% first-read share, producing 78.3 receiving yards per game with 2.67 YPRR. He also has two red zone targets and two scores. Since Week 6, Washington has the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (62.9%). Ridley has seen a boost against single high all year, and in the last three games, that has remained true. In this small sample, he has had a 29.4% target share, 3.03 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share against single-high. Since Week 6, Washington has held perimeter wide receivers to the 12th-lowest PPR points per target. The matchup is tough, but Ridley can likely overcome it.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets among wideouts and drawing three red zone targets over his last four games. Since Week 10, Tennessee has utilized two high coverage at the fourth-highest rate (64%). Against two high, McLaurin has had a 19.6% target share, a 41.1% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. The efficiency has dipped some against two-high, but McLaurin should still get plenty of volume against a burnable secondary to pay off in Week 13. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Noah Brown (WR)

Brown has three finishes this season as a WR3 or higher (WR23, WR35, WR23). He has two red zone targets across his last four games. Since Week 10, Tennessee has utilized two high coverage at the fourth-highest rate (64%). Since Week 3, against two high, Brown has had a 15.7% target share, 1.55 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Brown is a viable flex play this week.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has been heavily involved inside the red zone, with five red zone targets across his last three games. Since Week 10, Tennessee has utilized two high coverage at the fourth-highest rate (64%). Against two high, Ertz has led the team with a 21.7% target share and ranked second with 2.05 YPRR and a 24.5% first-read share. Ertz has run 57.2% of his routes from the slot this season. Since Week 7, Tennessee has held slot receivers to the 11th-lowest PPR points per target. It’s a tough matchup for the veteran, but he might get enough volume that it doesn’t matter.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Will Levis (QB)

Since his Week 10 return to the lineup, Levis has finished as the QB9, QB21, and QB13 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, 17th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Those numbers all paint a pretty picture for Levis, and I’ll say he has definitely played better, but also, during that stretch, he still has the fifth-highest off-target rate and the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. There remain some warts to his game. He should be able to produce solid QB2 numbers this week, but I wouldn’t expect much more. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson was listed as a limited practice participant on Wednesday (ankle). From every video I watched, calling it a limited practice is a tad bit generous. I doubt he will play this week, but we need to see what the rest of his week looks like. Jeremy McNichols could lead the backfield in Week 13. I’ll update his outlook and likely add McNichols to the Primer on Friday.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Ekeler didn’t practice on Wednesday (concussion) and is unlikely to suit up for Week 13. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Projecting Pollard’s workload for Week 13 is directly tied to Tyjae Spears‘ availability, which remains up in the air as he works his way through the concussion protocol. I’ll update Pollard’s outlook on Friday.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears had a limited practice session on Wednesday. His availability will massively impact Tony Pollard‘s Week 13 projection. I’ll update the outlook for both players on Friday when we have more news.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)

Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in six of his past seven games. I keep saying, “he won’t do it again,” and he does. With Levis back, he has seen a 16.5% target share with 2.20 YPRR and a 21.4% first-read share. Since Week 6, Washington has the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL (62.9%). In this small sample with Levis since Week 10, against single-high, his target share has fallen to 11.8% with only 0.28 YPRR. Sit Westbrook-Ikhine this week. Since Week 6, Washington has held perimeter wide receivers to the 12th-lowest PPR points per target.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

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Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets

• SEA -2, O/U 41.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, New York has had the 11th-slowest neutral pace while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Seattle has ranked 11th in neutral pace and neutral passing rate.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kenneth Walker III
• Breece Hall
• DK Metcalf
• Garrett Wilson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Metcalf missed Wednesday’s practice (shoulder). I’ll update his status throughout the week, but it’s too early to jump to the conclusion that he’ll miss Week 13. Hall also missed Wednesday’s practice (knee). I’ll update his status as we get more info.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith is the QB14 in fantasy who has been living off of passing volume this season. He is second in passing attempts and passing yards. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 14th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate and fourth in CPOE. As long as Smith can navigate pressure this week, he should walk away with a solid stat line. Since Week 7, New York has fallen off as a pass defense, allowing the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest EPA per dropback. During this same span, New York has ranked second in pressure rate. Against pressure, Smith ranks 20th in big-time throw rate and 19th in yards per attempt.

Davante Adams (WR)

Since joining New York, Adams has been the WR32 in fantasy points per game with a 25.8% target share, a 29% air-yard share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share. He has two end-zone targets and seven red-zone targets across his last five games. Since Week 10, Seattle has had the ninth-highest two-high rate (56.4%). Since Week 7, against two high, Adams has had a 27.4% target share, 2.36 YPRR, and a 34% first-read share. Adams should lead the way through the air against Seattle’s new-look pass defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the third-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Since Davante Adams joined the Jets, Rodgers has finished as a QB1 only once. Since Week 7, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers has ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 26th in catchable target rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Rodgers faces a Seattle pass defense that looks like they might have finally gotten on track since Week 11. Across their last two games, they have allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-fewest passing yards per game. Rodgers is in trouble this week.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett has fallen to a distant third in the target pecking order. Across the last four games, he hasn’t seen more than four targets in any game. He has only once in that span surpassed 20 receiving yards and has zero red zone targets. Since Week 7, Lockett has managed double-digit fantasy points only once. He is droppable in all redraft formats.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant has missed time with a groin issue. He opened this week with a full practice. I’ll update his status on Friday.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

• TB -6, O/U 46.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, with Mike Evans back, Tampa Bay had the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate. Since Bryce Young has been the starter again, Carolina has had the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking fifth in neutral rushing rate.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Mike Evans
• Cade Otton

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield is the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, 18th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. He’s always a threat to add a little bit of fantasy production with his legs. Mayfield has seven games with at least 20 rushing yards and three rushing scores. Mayfield should return strong QB1 numbers this week. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the ninth-highest passer rating, the third-highest CPOE, and the tenth-highest success rate per dropback.

Bryce Young (QB)

Last week, Young played arguably his best game as a pro. He was the QB14 for the week. Among 27 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 12th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, fourth in CPOE, 11th in catchable target rate, and fourth in hero throw rate. It was an impressive showing all around. Let’s see if he can do it again this week. Quarterbacks have destroyed Tampa Bay. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-highest success rate per dropback, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the highest passer rating and CPOE.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Last week, Hubbard played a season-high 89% of snaps with 17 touches and 60 total yards. He has averaged 18.9 touches and 91.1 total yards this season. Hubbard is the RB14 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. Among 54 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks tenth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should have another strong week. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 66.1% zone).

Rachaad White (RB)

Since Week 7, White has been the RB8 in fantasy points per game, averaging 54% of the snaps with 12.4 touches and 66 total yards. This season, among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. White should have another nice day in Week 13. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the highest rushing success rate in the NFL.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Since Week 7, Irving has been the RB12 in fantasy points per game, averaging 42% of the snaps, 14.4 touches, and 86.6 total yards. He has been an efficiency darling all season, ranking fourth in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Irving should run wild again in Week 13. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the highest rushing success rate in the NFL.

David Moore (WR)

Last week, Moore led the team with an 87.5% route share, a 28.6% target share, 81 receiving yards, 2.31 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. Moore had four red zone targets and finished as the WR11 for the week. He’s a sneaky flex option this week that could crush again. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Since Week 8, with Bryce Young as the starter, Legette has finished as a WR3 twice (WR33, WR28). He has seen three red zone targets and scored twice. He has had a 17.7% target share, a 29.7% air-yard share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has utilized single-high at the third-highest rate (70.7%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Legette has had an 18.8% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. He’s a strong flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Last week, Thielen returned to the huddle with a 70% route share, earning an 11.4% target share and 16% first-read share with 57 receiving yards (2.04 YPRR) and a red zone target. Thielen is a low-end flex play this week. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Last week, with Mike Evans back, Shepard was the underneath/designed target option for the offense. He led the team with a 23.3% target share and a 26.1% first-read share. He turned his five receptions into only 16 receiving yards. He had a 3.1 aDOT, and 42.9% of his targets were designed. At this stage of his career, Shepard is not an explosive yard after the catch threat. Last week, he had only 2.8 yards after the catch per reception. He is more of a PPR flex option moving forward if he retains this role. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jonathon Brooks (RB)

Last week, Brooks only played five snaps. He had two carries for seven yards. If you have the bench space, he’s a stash, but he’s not fantasy-viable.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Coker is dealing with an injured quad. He was held out of last week’s game and opened this week with a DNP. He’s looking likely to miss Week 13. I’ll update his status on Friday, but I’m not hopeful that he will play.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN