The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -3, O/U 47.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Russell Wilson starting, the Steelers have ranked 16th in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate. Since Week 7, Cincy has been blazing a trail with the fifth-fastest pace and the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL.

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Burrow (QB)

Burrow is the QB3 in fantasy points per game and has been dealing this season. Burrow ranks second in passing yards per game, first in passing touchdowns, third in passer rating, and 11th in CPOE. Pittsburgh has been a tough pass defense to face all season, but Burrow still has the talent and weapons to produce a nice stat line this week. Since Week 7, Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest CPOE. The Steelers have the highest single high rate in the NFL. Burrow ranks third in fantasy points per dropback against single high.

Russell Wilson (QB)

After starting out hot, Wilson has come back to earth over the last two games with QB27 and QB19 weekly finishes. Overall, he is the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt and tenth in passer rating, which is great, but he is also 34th in catchable target rate and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Wilson has been threading the needle all season, and it has finally caught up with him. Yes, the elements played a role against the Browns, and they left some big plays on the field with some miscommunications, but it was still a rollercoaster performance by Wilson. This week’s matchup with Cincy offers a possible bounce-back spot for the veteran signal-caller. Since Week 7, Cincy has allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passing yards per game, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most passing touchdowns.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris is the RB27 in fantasy points per game, ranking 26th in snap share, 12th in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.5 touches and 85.8 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, Harris ranks fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Cincy remains a plus matchup for backs. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest stuff rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. I do have some concerns about Harris this week after last week’s game. Warren played a season-high 57% of the snaps and 67% of the red zone snaps. It’s a one-game sample, but it’s worth noting.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Is the worm turning in the Pittsburgh backfield with Warren healthy? It’s a question worth asking after last week’s game. Warren played a season-high 57% of the snaps while also handling 67% of the red zone snaps. He finished with 14 touches and 64 total yards. Since Week 8, Warren has looked like himself with a 7% explosive run rate, a 28% missed tackle rate, and 2.60 yards after contact per attempt. This week’s usage for Warren will be telling. The matchup sets up well for him to ball out this week. Since Week 7, Cincy has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest stuff rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Tee Higgins (WR)

When Higgins has been healthy, he has been amazing this season as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. In his six games played, he has six deep targets and nine red zone targets. Higgins has a 26.5% target share, 2.35 YPRR, and a 38.1% first-read share. The Steelers have utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (71.6%). Against single-high, Higgins’ numbers have remained strong with a 28.6% target share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 42.4% first-read share. Higgins could EAT this week if Joey Porter Jr. follows Ja’Marr Chase all day, but I won’t rule Higgins getting the shadow, considering how well he has played against single-high and his role in the offense. Since Week 7, Pittsburgh has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, which is disappointing as he has underperformed this season, considering his role. Pickens is the WR11 in expected fantasy points per game. Pickens has a 26.6% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, 2.57 YPRR, and a 36.2% first-read share. Sadly, this doesn’t project as a Pickens smash week unless Pittsburgh gets behind early and he gets peppered with targets. Since Week 10, Cincy has moved more to two high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (55.1%). Pickens’ numbers have fallen against two high with a 19.2% target share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. Cincy’s corner struggles also help Pickens’ Week 13 outlook. Since Week 7, Cincy has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Calvin Austin (WR)

Austin hits the flex radar this week. Since Week 10, Cincy has moved more to two high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (55.1%). Against two high, Austin has a 12.3% target share and 17.3% first-read share (both second on the team) while leading the team in percentage of receiving yards against two high (24.2%) and YPRR (2.41). Since Week 7, Cincy has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth has had a rough season as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards only twice in his last seven games. His red zone usage has ticked up recently, with three red zone targets in his last three games. This week’s matchup against Cincy does offer some hope for Freiermuth as he reenters the streaming list. Since Week 10, Cincy has moved more to two high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (55.1%). Against two high, Freiermuth is second on the team with a 12.3% target share while producing 1.47 YPRR and seeing a 14.7% first-read share (third on the team). Cincy has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Mike Williams (WR)

In three games with Pittsburgh, Williams has one target and hasn’t played more than 32% of the snaps in any game. He is droppable at this point. This trade feels eerily similar to Baltimore’s move for Diontae Johnson.

Mike Gesicki (TE)

With Tee Higgins healthy, Gesicki is droppable. In the six games Higgins has been active, Gesicki’s production has evaporated with only a 5.2% target share, 0.55 YPRR, and 11.8 receiving yards per game. If Higgins misses any more time this season, head back to the waiver wire immediately to pick up Gesicki, but his fantasy value is gone with HIggins in the lineup.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• LAC -1, O/U 47.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Los Angeles has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate. During the same time frame, Atlanta has slowed down, ranking 15th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Herbert
• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is the WR31 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in four of his last eight games. Unfortunately, he has only had two red zone targets in his last five games, which has hurt his floor and ceiling. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8. McConkey has a 21.6% target share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 27% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with four end-zone targets. Since Week 6, Atlanta has had the fifth-highest rate of two high (55.6%). Against two high, McConkey is tied for the team lead with a 19.6% target share, ranks first with a 23.2% first-read share, and sadly has only had 1.53 YPRR. McConkey should lead the way against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and ranked 17th in receiving yards per game allowed to slot receivers.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

While Mooney was on the injury report before the bye and had only a 56% snap rate against Denver, this was more due to the blowout nature of that game. In the first half of the game, Mooney played 100% of the offensive snaps. Mooney is the WR25 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets among wide receivers. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 7. Mooney has a 21.3% target share, 2.09 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share. Los Angeles has the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.8%). Mooney’s target share against two high has remained stable while his YPRR has jumped to 2.71, and his first-read share has ticked up slightly to 29.2%. Mooney should have a solid day against the Chargers’ secondary that, since Week 10, has ranked 18th in receiving yards per game and 16th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Last week, Palmer saw his second-highest route share of the season (81.8%) with a 22.2% target share and a season-high 26.3% first-read share. Sadly, he only produced 1.06 YPRR and 38 receiving yards, but the usage was a nice thing to see. Since Week 6, Atlanta has had the fifth-highest rate of two high (55.6%). Palmer could stay heavily involved this week as he is second behind only McConkey in separation and leads the team in route win rate against two high. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Johnston is the WR43 in fantasy points per game, with four weeks this season as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. He ranks 22nd among wide receivers in deep targets while seeing three red zone targets across his last five games. Since Week 6, Atlanta has had the fifth-highest rate of two high (55.6%). The matchup is fantastic this week for Johnston, but I worry he will be on the outside looking in, considering Atlanta’s lean to more two-high coverage. Against two high, he ranks seventh on the team in separation score and fourth in route win rate. Among all of the Bolts receivers with a minimum of 25 routes against two high, he is sixth in TPRR (13%), second in YPRR (1.93), and third in first-read share (17.7%). Johnston is a volatile flex play this week. There’s a wide range of outcomes for his Week 13 outlook. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Will Dissly (TE)

Dissly is the TE19 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks across his last six games. Since Week 6, Atlanta has had the fifth-highest rate of two high (55.6%). Against two high, he leads the team with a 29% TPRR and 2.29 YPRR while also ranking second in first-read share (20.7%). Atlanta has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and ranked 17th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. 

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Cousins is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. Two of those games came against the Buccaneers, though. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Cousins ranks tenth in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, 16th in CPOE, and second in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 7, the Chargers have given up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-best pressure rate. Atlanta should lean on the ground game this week.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Last week in the second half, Edwards played 75% of the rushing play snaps, but he only played 18% of the passing down snaps and 33% of the red zone snaps as Hassan Haskins gobbled up the passing downs and the red zone snaps. Edwards will be a game script sensitive back while J.K. Dobbins is out. If the Bolts can keep the score close or play with a lead, then Edwards should be the back getting the early down work. If they fall behind in games, we could see Edwards head to the bench. Edwards has looked like a back on his last legs this season, with only a 5% missed tackle rate and 1.95 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Atlanta has been the smash rushing matchup they were at the beginning of the season, allowing the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, the lowest missed tackle rate, the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game, and ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Pitts will likely struggle this week. The Bolts have been electric at defending tight ends and Pitts has disappeared against two high coverage. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-lowest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers have the second-highest rate of two high in the NFL (60.8%). Against two high, Pitts has had a 13.8% target share, 1.07 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. Sit Pitts this week and stream a tight end.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• HOU -3.5, O/U 44
• Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Nico Collins back, Houston has ranked 12th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate. With Trevor Lawrence under center, Jacksonville has been tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Mixon
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Stroud is the QB26 in fantasy points per game, and he finished last week with only his third QB1 game of the season. His best showing of the season came against this pass defense in Week 4 (QB7). Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 32nd in CPOE, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. Geez, typing that made me incredibly sad, but this is a pass defense that Stroud can exploit. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest CPOE, the second-most passing yards per game, and the third-highest success rate per dropback. Jacksonville also had the tenth-lowest pressure rate during this stretch, which will help Stroud immensely.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

The workload division for this backfield this week is tough to project. Bigsby began the season as a part-time player who earned more work and didn’t contribute much to passing downs before seeing more passing down snaps with Travis Etienne getting hurt. My guess is that we see Bigsby on the early downs, with Etienne handling some of the early down work while taking the bulk of the passing down snaps. Bigsby has been awesome as a rusher this season, ranking fifth in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 50 carries). Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Overall, this season, the Texans have given up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Bigsby 50.5% gap).

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

The workload division for this backfield this week is tough to project. Etienne began the season with the clear workhorse, which he operated as in Weeks 10-11, but Bigsby flashed all season and earned more work. Bigsby should factor in on early downs while Etienne handles the passing downs and half of the early down carries (maybe more). Among 54 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 13th in explosive run rate and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Overall, this season, the Texans have given up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Etienne 61% gap).

Tank Dell (WR)

Since Nico Collins‘ return to the lineup, Dell has had a 17.9% target share, a 37.6% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Those are solid market share and efficiency numbers, but they haven’t translated to big fantasy days as Dell has finished as the WR41 and WR33 in weekly fantasy scoring. He hasn’t seen a red zone target over the last two weeks after seeing six in his previous five games. Dell hasn’t smashed, but that’s not because he has been playing bad. Over the last two weeks, among 86 qualifying receivers, Dell ranks first in separation and 12th in route win rate. C.J. Stroud hasn’t been playing good football and the offensive line has been a big concern. Assuming Stroud can look closer to his 2023 self this week, Dell should crush. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. is the WR28 in fantasy, ranking 22nd in deep targets among wideouts. In Weeks 1-9, with Lawrence, he had seven red zone targets, an 18.4% target share, 2.52 YPRR, and a 21.9% first-read share. In the Jags Week 4 meeting with Houston, the Texans utilized single high on 68.6% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 1-9, against single high, Thomas Jr. had a 20.5% target share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share. That’s a sizable bump for Thomas Jr., and he’ll need it against a Houston secondary that, since Week 7, has held perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target while also ranking 19th in receiving yards per game allowed.

Evan Engram (TE)

In Weeks 1-9 with Lawrence under center, Engram was the TE8 in fantasy points per game and saw three red zone targets in his five games played. He had a 24.3% target share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. In the Jags Week 4 meeting with Houston, the Texans utilized single high on 68.6% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 1-9, against single high, Engram had a 26% target share, 2.39 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Engram should have a nice day if Lawrence is back. Houston has allowed the tenth-highest yards per reception and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Schultz is the TE25 in fantasy points per game with only one TE1 game this season. He has a 13.6% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and a 13.4% first-read share. He has seen his red zone usage creep up in the last two games with two red zone targets. If you need a streamer this week, Schultz could fit the bill. Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence will be back this week despite not being 100%. Lawrence is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence is 20th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 28th in CPOE. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied) and 13th-most passing yards per game, but this is all volume-driven as Houston has faced the fifth-most passing attempts. On a per-dropback basis, Houston has remained a tough pass defense during this span, allowing the fifth-lowest passer rating, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest success rate per dropback.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

• IND -2.5, O/U 42.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Anthony Richardson back under center, Indy has ranked tenth in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate. With Drake Maye starting, New England has been 18th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

In his two starts since reclaiming the starting role, Richardson has finished as the QB5 and QB21 in fantasy. Over the last two weeks, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, seventh in CPOE, 15th in hero throw rate, and second in fantasy points per dropback. He has averaged ten rushing attempts and 46.5 rushing yards per game. He has had to suffer through the third highest drop rate from his wide receivers and lost the third-most yards because of those drops. Richardson should scorch the earth this week against the Patriots’ weak pass defense. Since Week 7, they have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

The Patriots tinker too much with personnel usage on a weekly basis, and it has crept back into the running back position. Last week, Stevenson’s snap rate dropped to 42% as he finished with eight touches and 13 rushing yards. I’m sorry, Jerod Mayo, but the problem with the run game isn’t Stevenson. It’s the abysmal offensive line that he has run behind all season. The Patriots have the second-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt in the NFL. The only team with a worse offensive line is the Seattle Seahawks in terms of run blocking. Stevenson’s tackle-breaking metrics haven’t been great, but I don’t know how healthy he truly is because he began the year crushing in every category. He has fallen off and currently ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Maybe Stevenson can get back on track this week, but there are no guarantees with this offense. He does have a great matchup this week, though. Since Week 7, Indy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman Jr. might get the Christian Gonzalez shadow treatment this week. Last week, Gonzalez followed Tyreek Hill on 54.5% of his routes, allowing 48 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Gonzalez has followed eight receivers this season on at least 53.8% of their routes. Only D.K. Metcalf surpassed 67 receiving yards with Gonzalez attached to them. Over the last two games with Richardson back under center, Pittman Jr. has had a 24.1% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, 2.96 YPRR, and a 28.3% first-read share while averaging 71 receiving yards per game. Pittman has one red zone target over the last two weeks. If Pittman can avoid a Gonzalez shadow on the majority of his routes, he could be productive this week. Since Week 7, New England has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

With Josh Downs out, Mitchell likely assumes the primary slot receiver role. In Weeks 1-1 with Downs out, Mitchell ran 54.8% of his routes from the slot. Since Week 8, New England has leaned more toward two-high heavy, utilizing the coverage with at least 47.2% or higher of their defensive snaps. In Week 10, they deployed single high with 82.9% of their snaps, but that looks like an anomaly. If we exclude Week 10 from the sample, since Week 8, New England has utilized two-high with 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Mitchell has only had a 20% TPRR and 0.37 YPRR, but that doesn’t really speak to his effectiveness against the coverage. He has played a part-time field stretching role this season, which isn’t conducive to use against two-high. Mitchell leads the team in separation and route win rate against two high. Among 94 qualifying receivers, Mitchell ranks seventh in separation and fifth in route win rate against two high. If Christian Gonzalez is plastered to Micheal Pittman Jr., Mitchell should see strong usage in Week 13. New England has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce is dealing with a foot issue. He didn’t practice until Friday of this week, when he logged a full session. He has been listed as questionable for Week 13. Since Week 8, New England has leaned more toward two-high heavy, utilizing the coverage with at least 47.2% or higher of their defensive snaps. In Week 10, they deployed single high with 82.9% of their snaps, but that looks like an anomaly. If we exclude Week 10 from the sample, since Week 8, New England has utilized two-high with 52.2% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Pierce has had only a 17% TPRR, but he also has 2.26 YPRR against two high. Like Mitchell, his field-stretching role in the offense hasn’t been conducive to drawing targets against two high coverage. Among 94 qualifying receivers, he ranks 22nd in separation and 27th in route win rate against two high. Pierce should also be able to flaunt his field-stretching talents this week against New England. He leads all wide receivers in deep targets this season. He faces a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the tenth-most deep passing yards per game, the 12th-highest passer rating to deep passing, and the seventh-highest deep adjusted completion rate. Pierce is a strong flex play this week with big-time upside.

Hunter Henry (TE)

In his six full games with Maye, Henry has finished as a TE1 four times and seen eight red zone targets. He has a 17.8% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 22% first-read share while averaging 51.7 receiving yards per game. Henry should flirt with TE1 production again this week against a pass defense that has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye is the QB22 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 7. His rushing yardage has dried up some. He hasn’t had more than 27 rushing yards in a game since Week 9. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Unless he runs more this week, Maye will likely turn in QB2 numbers again this week. Since Week 7, Indy has been an average to below-average matchup for quarterbacks, ranking 15th in success per dropback, 15th in passer rating, and giving up the 13th-lowest CPOE.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

In his five full games with Maye under center, Douglas has had an 18.8% target share, 2.08 YPRR, 59.6 receiving yards per game, and a 23.1% first-read share. Douglas had only one red zone target during that stretch and scored only one touchdown this season. This lack of high-leverage usage caps his ceiling weekly. Douglas is still a decent weekly flex in PPR leagues. Since Week 7, Indy has limited slot receivers to the 13th-lowest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs has been ruled out for Week 13.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN