The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Oh, Baby! I can’t believe it is already here, Thanksgiving.

Football, family, and food. Tons of food. Oh, glorious food. (Can you tell that I’m hungry as I write this?) Since I’m on the subject of food. I have to address something. Right here. Right now. I’m SICK & TIRED of all of the turkey slander I have seen this week on my timeline. Hating turkey seems to be popular right now. Well, I won’t stand for it. Turkey prepared well is awesome. I’m sorry if your significant other, family, in-laws, etc., can’t cook a turkey properly. Truly. I apologize for their missteps.

Cooking this holiday bird doesn’t have to be difficult, though.

1. Purchase the Char-Broil Big Easy oil-less fryer
2. Inject your bird with a combination of butter and jalapeno juice or Tony Chachere’s creole-style butter marinade. You can also separate the skin from the meat and slide in a few slices of butter. It’s not a must, but it’s worth it.
3. Rub down the outside of the bird with your favorite combo of seasonings. My favorites are Kinders Buttery Poultry Blend or Weber’s Beer Can Chicken seasoning.
4. Follow the directions for lighting your oil-less fryer.
5. Insert your temperature probe & drop in the bird.
6. When it reaches an internal temperature of 165 degrees throughout, you’re good.

You’re welcome.

Before we dive into all of these matchups for fantasy football for Week 13, I also have to say, thank you. Thanksgiving is about taking a second to realize what we are thankful for. Yes, I could rattle off a laundry list of friends, family, etc., that I don’t know what I’d do without, but I want to thank you. Yes, you. Everyone that has ever read, supported or listened to any of my work. Changing careers a few years ago from being a full-time registered nurse to a writer was something that I never imagined possible. It’s been a wild ride, and I still feel like I’m just getting started. I still have “pinch me” moments with this job that make me wonder if this is all an elaborate dream that I’m destined to wake from. None of this would be possible if it weren’t for you.

Thank you. I hope everyone has a glorious holiday and all your fantasy football teams win.

Welcome to the Week 13 Primer. Enjoy.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 13

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -10.5, O/U 48.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Thomas Brown calling the plays, Chicago has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 16th in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last four games, Detroit has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this year. On a per-dropback basis, he has been amazing. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. Goff should rip the Bears’ secondary in half this week. Since Week 7, the Bears have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest CPOE. They have massively struggled to defend deep passing during this stretch, giving up the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Over the last two weeks, Williams has played much better with Thomas Brown at the helm. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 11th in passing yards per game and CPOE, 19th in yards per attempt, 20th in aDOT, and sixth in hero throw rate. Brown has tried to keep things simple for Williams, as he has had the third-highest first-read throw rate. While Williams did utilize his legs again in Week 12 (six carries and 33 rushing yards), he had only one designed run (four in Week 11). Williams carved up the Vikings last week (QB4), so I won’t bet against him doing the same to Detroit this week. It will be a tough test, though. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest CPOE, and the third-fewest passing touchdowns. Williams should have time to read the field. Since Week 11, even with Za’Darius Smith helping out, Detroit has had the 11th-slowest time to pressure and the sixth-lowest pressure rate.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery got banged up last week (shoulder), but he looks to be good to go this week. Montgomery has stated that he could have gone back into the game last week, but Dan Campbell held him out with a short week ahead. Montgomery is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.6 touches and 79.4 total yards per game. Among 54 qualifying backs, Montgomery is 13th in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Montgomery should be an integral part of a Detroit rushing attack that should flourish in Week 13. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards before contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Montgomery 64.8% zone).

Roschon Johnson (RB)

Over the last two games, Johnson has averaged 40% of the snaps, seven touches, and 26.5 total yards. He has scored in back-to-back games while taking over the goal line role. He has played 83% of the snaps inside the five-yard line for Chicago since Week 11. I won’t be surprised if Johnson gets an uptick in his usage this week against Detroit. Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and had the fourth-highest stuff rate. Detroit’s kryptonite has been with defending gap runs. This season, Detroit has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest stuff rate, and the seventh-highest missed tackle rate to gap runs. I will say, though, that they have faced the seventh-fewest gap rushing attempts (77), but that is still a decent sample.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen is coming off a huge game, and he’s primed for another banner day in Week 13. Last week, he had a 31.3% target share with nine grabs, 86 receiving yards, and a 36.8% first-read share. Since Week 11, Allen has led the team with a 29.1% target share and 33.8% first-read share while also having a 1.61 YPRR and an end zone target. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Allen has led the team with a 28% TPRR and 34.5% first-read share while ranking second with 2.22 YPRR. Detroit has bled out production to slot receivers all year, allowing the most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, seeing nine deep targets and five red zone targets in his nine games played. He still hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 2, so if he scores this week, it’ll have to be from a big play. Williams has a 17.3% target share, a 34.1% air-yard share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, Williams ranks fourth in TPRR (17%), fourth in YPRR (2.07), and second in first-read share (19.5%). If Goff is looking to challenge the Bears’ secondary deep, Williams should be a big part of the game plan. He leads the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Since Week 7, the Bears have given up the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tim Patrick (WR)

I won’t be surprised if Patrick pops a big play this week. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, Patrick ranks fourth on the team in TPRR (18%) while having 1.72 YPRR against the coverage. Patrick ranks second on the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the third-highest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Since Week 7, the Bears have given up the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

LaPorta looks finally fully healthy. Last week, he played 93% of the snaps, which is the second time this season he has played more than 90% of the snaps. LaPorta is the TE17 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 4, Chicago has had the third-highest single-high rate (61.8%). Against single high, LaPorta is third on the team in TPRR (18%) while ranking third in YPRR (2.17) and first-read share (16%). Chicago has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Over the last two games, Swift has averaged 16 touches and 74.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 54% of the snaps overall, with 67% of the rushing play snaps, 47% of the passing down snaps, and sadly, only 22% of the inside the five-yard line snaps (Roschon Johnson 83%). Swift lost the goal line role to Johson, but he retained the lead in early down work while splitting the passing downs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift will run into brick walls all day against Detroit. Since Week 6, they have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the seventh-lowest yards per carry to zone runs, and the third-lowest success rate to zone runs (since Brown has been the offensive coordinator, Swift 59% zone).

DJ Moore (WR)

Over the last two games, Moore has had a 17.7% target share (third on the team), 1.91 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share (third on the team). He has been the underneath/manufactured touch player, with 57.1% of his targets being designed and having only a 1.8 aDOT (25 air yards). Moore is eighth among wide receivers in red zone targets, but he has only one red zone look over his last four games. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Moore has ranked fourth in TPRR (17%), first in YPRR (2.37), and second in first-read share (24.1%). Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Also not working in Moore’s favor is the fact that Detroit has allowed the second-fewest yards after the catch per reception.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Over the last two games, Odunze has had a 24.1% target share, a 39% air-yard share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share (second on the team). He has led the team with two end-zone targets. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate (56%). It’s an incredibly small sample, but over the last two games against single-high, Odunze has ranked second in TPRR (23%) and first-read share (24.1%) while posting only 1.55 YPRR. This is a tough matchup for him. Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet is the TE14 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets among the position. Kmet sadly hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 6. Since Week 11, he has had a 65.2% route share, a 16.5% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share. Kmet will have a tough day in Week 13 against a pass defense that has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -4, O/U 38
• New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, the Giants had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
• With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas has ranked sixth in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Rush has finished as the QB33, QB19, and QB9 in his three starts this season. Over the last two weeks, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 14th in CPOE, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. Rush shouldn’t have many problems with the Giants’ pass defense. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the seventh-highest CPOE.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Last week, Dallas actually stayed competitive, and we saw Dowdle play 61% of the snaps with 22 touches and 98 total yards. Since Week 9, he has found his stride. Among 40 qualifying backs, he has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle should steamroll the Giants this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, and the highest yards after contact per attempt.

CeeDee Lamb (WR)

With Cooper Rush as the starter, Lamb has had a 26.5% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share. He has had only one end-zone target. Lamb has been peppered with short area targets with his 5.7 aDOT. He has finished as the WR14 in weekly scoring in each of the last two weeks. Since Week 7, New York has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Lamb will get fed PPR goodness again this week. His floor has been established with the volume from Rush. The question now is, can he provide a higher ceiling with this week’s matchup? We’ll see.

Malik Nabers (WR)

Last week, Nabers finished as the WR25 for the week with a 28.1% target share, a 43.9% air-yard share, 64 receiving yards (1.73 YPRR), and a 34.8% first-read share. Nabers is in a similar situation as Lamb. Plenty of low-calorie targets are being fed in his direction weekly, but the offensive environment and putrid quarterback play are neutering him into a volume-based WR2. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. We’ll see if Nabers can take advantage of the plus matchup with DeVito under duress and chucking spoiled cutlets at him all day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tommy DeVito (QB)

Last week, DeVito finished as the QB24 in fantasy. Among 28 quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate. It was the type of outing that everyone should have expected from DeVito. New York looks like a team that has given up. They leaned extremely run-heavy when the game was close in an attempt to hide DeVito. Dallas hasn’t been fielding a strong pass defense, but that might not matter against DeVito. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE. DeVito had a splendid matchup against the Bucs last week, but he couldn’t do anything. It might be much of the same this week, especially considering that since Week 7, Dallas has had the sixth-fastest time to pressure and has ranked 13th in pressure rate. Last week, DeVito was pressured on 51.3% of his dropbacks (led the NFL, minimum of 15 dropbacks). DeVito might not play this week, though. He’s dealing with a forearm injury, so we’ll have to see if he can suit up. If he can’t go, Drew Lock will start.

Drew Lock (QB)

If Tommy DeVito can’t play this week, Lock will start for the Giants. The last time that we saw Lock starting was in 2023 when he started two games for Seattle. Among 53 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Lock ranked 32nd in passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate, and 44th in big-time throw rate. He finished as the QB17 and QB25 in weekly scoring in those starts. Lock should be a small upgrade over DeVito this week if he makes the start, but he’s being thrown into a rough situation. Last week, DeVito was pressured on 51.3% of his dropbacks (led the NFL, minimum of 15 dropbacks). Lock will be under duress all day if he draws the start. Since Week 7, Dallas has had the sixth-fastest time to pressure and has ranked 13th in pressure rate. If he can navigate the pressure, he could post decent numbers against what has been a bad pass defense. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Last week, before Tracy fumbled at the beginning of the third quarter, Tracy’s role was solidified as the early down hammer. He played 67% of the rushing play snaps but only 22% of the passing down snaps, as Singletary handled the bulk of passing downs (67%). In the second half, the backfield dissolved into a three-headed committee. The Giants’ backfield could be watered down into a situation like Denver’s in the upcoming weeks, where they deploy the “hot hand,” which makes essentially no one playable from the backfield. Right now, I don’t necessarily think that’s the case, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the team approaches it like that this week. Tracy has proven to be a talented rusher. Among 54 qualifying backs, Tracy ranks eighth in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest yards before contact per attempt. It’s questionable whether Tracy will be able to take advantage of it, though. He could be saddled with a volume-limiting committee approach this week or be game-scripted out if Devin Singletary takes over as the Giants’ are getting throttled.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson has dissolved into a low-end PPR flex play only. Last week, he had a 15.6% target share, a 5.8 aDOT, 47 receiving yards, and a 21.7% first-read share. Since Week 7, Robinson has managed double-digit fantasy points only once. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 8. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the highest PPR points per target to slot receivers, but it’s a consistent theme with this offense. After considering the quarterback play and offensive environment, I don’t know if Robinson can excel this week.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks will likely be active this week, but with Rush under center and Cook’s snap rate uncertain for Week 13, he’s not fantasy viable this week. Pick him up in deep leagues if you have the bench space, but he’s not a priority add.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Last week, Johnson had an 18.8% target share (six targets), a 21.7% first-read share, and a 60% route share. He finished with three receptions and 39 receiving yards in a fantastic matchup for tight ends. You know where I’m going with this. Dallas is a nice matchup for Johnson this week, but this offense hinders every skill player. Johnson is a low-end streaming option only. He has only one red zone target this season (Week 3). Dallas has allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Luke Schoonmaker (TE)

With Jake Ferguson out this week (concussion), Schoonmaker will be the primary receiving tight end for Dallas again this week. Schoonmaker has finished as the TE9 in fantasy in each of the last two weeks. Since Week 11, he has had a 50% route share, a 14.8% target share, 2.31 YPRR (55 receiving yards per game), and an 18.6% first-read share. He hasn’t seen a red zone target in either game. This isn’t a good matchup for Schoonmaker. New York has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson has been ruled out (concussion).

Rush has shown a propensity to feed CeeDee Lamb and whoever is playing tight end for Dallas weekly. Until further notice, no one else in this passing attack is fantasy-viable.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -3, O/U 47
• Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Tua Tagovailoa back, Miami has operated with the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-best neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 4, Green Bay has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs
• De’Von Achane

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Love (QB)

Love is the QB9 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 performances in his nine games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards per game, 14th in CPOE, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Miami pass defense that has been a middle-of-the-road unit since Week 7, allowing the 16th-most passing yards per game, the 15th-most passing touchdowns, and the 16th-highest success rate per dropback. One area that Love will expose this week is Miami’s struggles to defend deep passing. Love has the second-highest deep ball rate in the NFL, behind only Anthony Richardson. Miami has faced the eighth-fewest deep attempts, but they have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed has fallen all the way to WR26 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, he has eclipsed 60 receiving yards in a game only twice and seen only three red zone targets during that span. This could be a bounce-back spot for Reed. With Kader Kohou in the starting slot corner spot, Miami has been tough against the slot. In Weeks 1-7, Miami held slot receivers to the 13th-lowest PPR points per target. Since Week 10, with his return to the lineup, Miami has kept slot receivers in check, giving up the eighth-lowest PPR points per target. The coverage matchup leans in Reed’s direction, though. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Reed has ranked second on the team with a 23% TPRR, first in YPRR (2.56), and first in first-read share (25%).

Christian Watson (WR)

If Love is looking to attack Miami deep this week, Watson should be a big part of the equation. Watson leads the team with 14 deep targets. Miami has faced the eighth-fewest deep attempts, but they have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Please, Watson, for the love of everything holy and sacred in this world…catch the dang ball when it’s thrown your way deep. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Watson ranks fifth on the team in TPRR (16%), but he ranks second behind only Reed in YPRR (2.13). Since Week 7, Miami has allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks (WR)

If Doubs misses the game this week, Wicks will be a starter again for Week 13. Wicks (like Watson) should be highly involved if Love is going to challenge this secondary deep. He ranks second on the team in deep targets. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Wicks has led the team in TPRR (27%) and ranks second in first-read share (20.5%), but he has ranked fifth in YPRR (1.20). If he can convert on a deep target (or two), he’ll pay off, but it’s tough to project this week as his efficiency has dropped off against two high. Since Week 7, Miami has allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Since Jordan Love‘s return in Week 4, Kraft has been the TE9 in fantasy with a 12% target share, 1.52 YPRR, a 12.7% first-read share, and six red zone targets. Since Week 7, Miami has utilized two high with 51% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 4, against two high, Kraft has seen his target share rise to 15.2% with 1.86 YPRR and a 14.8% first-read share. Kraft is a fringe TE1 this week against a pass defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game while also ranking 17th in fantasy points per game given up to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game, with two games with at least 23.7 PPR points. Across his last five games, he has led the team with a 20% target share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. He has four red zone targets in his last four games. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Smith has seen his target share rise to 22.9% with 2.46 YPRR and a 27.5% first-read share. Smith should smash again. Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tagovailoa has finished as a QB1 in each of the last two games (QB11, QB3) while ranking as the QB14 in fantasy points per game since his return. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and 13th in CPOE. Miami has fundamentally changed its offensive approach, ditching deep passing for underneath passing. Tagovailoa has the lowest aDOT among all qualifying quarterbacks, and the second-highest percentage of his passing yards have come via yards after the catch (61.2%). Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and has ranked 16th in yards per attempt. Working in Tagovailoa’s favor is the fact that, since Week 7, Green Bay has also allowed the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. This doesn’t project as a smash matchup for him, though.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Hill has only seen an 18.8% target share, a 34.2% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead) while producing 1.90 YPRR and 55.4 receiving yards per game. Since Week 8, Hill has six red zone targets. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Hill has had only a 16.5% target share with 1.36 YPRR and an 18.8% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, and I don’t think it will get any better this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

I’m not chasing Waddle’s explosive outing last week. I love the player and the talent, but I hate his usage this season. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Waddle has had a 15.3% target share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 15.7% first-read share. It hasn’t been pretty, as he has averaged only 55.8 receiving yards per game. Waddle has only one red zone target since Week 7. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.8%). Across his last five games, against two high, Waddle has had only a 14.7% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs has been ruled out (concussion).

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -13, O/U 42.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, Las Vegas has ranked 13th in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate. Across their last four games, the Chiefs have been 19th in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral passing rate.

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Brock Bowers
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Hunt is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and sixth in red zone touches. He has averaged 21.5 touches and 89 total yards this season. Hunt should retain the lion’s share of the workload this week, even with Isiah Pacheco returning. I expect we’ll see Pacheco get a handful of touches and snaps this week, as the team will likely ease him back in. This hurts Hunt’s ceiling, but his floor for Week 13 is still high. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The volume has been integral to Hunt’s fantasy value, so I can’t pretend that his value doesn’t take somewhat of a hit this week and moving forward, especially with the Raiders’ run defense improving. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Meyers is the WR20 in fantasy points per game and has been a volume monster without Davante Adams on the team. Since Week 4, he has had a 24.5% target share, a 37% air-yard share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 32.9% first-read share. He averaged 71.2 receiving yards per game during that span, but sadly, he had only seen four red zone targets and scored one receiving touchdown. The last time Meyers faced Kansas City, he finished as the WR20 for the week with six receptions, 52 receiving yards, and a score. The Chiefs have been more vulnerable to perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to the position. Meyers is a strong play again this week.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, Worthy’s route share has never dipped below 64.3%. In his five games with Hopkins, Worthy has played the field stretching role for two games, but in three games his role has been fairly consistent (Weeks 8, 11, & 12). In those games, Worthy has had a 10.3 aDOT, a 17.6% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. In those games, (one of which was against Las Vegas), Worthy has seen three red zone targets. Worthy is just a middling flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aidan O’Connell (QB)

O’Connell will start for Las Vegas this week. This season, he hasn’t finished higher than QB24 in any game. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, O’Connell has the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. Even in Superflex, I wouldn’t be starting O’Connell. He hasn’t had more than 12.1 fantasy points in any game this season. You can get better production from a skill player in your Superflex spot.

Ameer Abdullah (RB)

Last week, Abdullah operated as Las Vegas’s bell cow with 90% of the snaps, 13 touches, and 65 total yards. He could be the team’s lead back again this week. He generated only 1.88 yards after contact per attempt and 0.79 YPRR, which isn’t great, but if he’s going to see this type of workload weekly, it puts him in the RB2/3 and flex conversation. Volume is king in fantasy, and Abdullah is seeing it. That was true last week, as he finished as the RB9 for the week. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the 14th-lowest missed tackle rate.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Pacheco will be active this week, but we shouldn’t expect more than a handful of snaps and carries this week. Against what has been an improved Raiders run defense, Pacheco isn’t flex-worthy this week. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Kansas City has continued to water down Hopkins usage as they are utilizing a full-blown committee behind Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. Last week, Hopkins had a 44.7% route share, which ranked sixth on the team as he drew a 16.2% target share and 22.7% first-read share with two end zone targets, 1.67 YPRR (35 receiving yards), and a 23.8% air-yard share. This type of usage is nightmare fuel. When he’s on the field, Hopkins is being targeted at strong rates, but the dwindling number of routes weekly is concerning that floor could drop out any week. This week against a middle-of-the-road secondary that has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target since Week 7 against perimeter wide receivers, Hopkins is a volatile flex play.

CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN