Usually, in these intros, I’ll discuss some storylines for the week, make some random dad joke, or insert some meme or otherwise nerdy joke. This week, there will be none of that. I want to take a second with the holiday season upcoming to talk about the reality that some of us face with holidays.
Holidays can be amazing. Friends, tacky sweaters, perfectly cooked turkey, and spirited cheering as a family for your favorite NFL team after a few cocktails. The flip side of that coin is real for plenty of people.
A time of the year when you’re reminded of fractured family units. Past trauma. Loss. Monetary stress or hardship. My message is simple, fam. Kindness can make all the difference in the world. I’m not saying that everyone (or anyone) has to go volunteer at their local food bank. If you want to or feel called to do so, that’s awesome. My request is far simpler.
Take a second when the opportunity arises to offer a kind gesture to someone. Anyone. It can be a stranger, a family member, or a significant other. Let someone out in front of you when traffic is bumper to bumper. Pay for the person behind you in line at the drive-thru. Hold open a door for the elderly or a small child. It all makes a difference. All of it.
“Great things are done by a series of small things brought together.”
– Vincent Van Gogh
Welcome to the Week 12 Primer. Enjoy.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has had the 11th-fastest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate. During the same stretch of games, New York has been fifth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB2/3 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB4 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | WR4/5 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | WR4 |
| Trey Palmer | WR | WR6 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1 |
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tommy DeVito | QB | QB2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | RB2 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | RB4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | WR1/2 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | WR3/4 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | WR4/5 |
| Theo Johnson | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Evans practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Friday. He had a full session on Thursday. He has been listed as questionable and is expected to play this week.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
In two of Mayfield’s last three starts, he has finished lower than QB16 for the week. He’s played well, considering the weapons he’s had at his disposal. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in CPOE. Mayfield should post a solid QB2 stat line this week against a burnable Giants’ secondary. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback.
Last year, in DeVito’s five full starts, he finished as a QB1 once while averaging 5.4 rushing attempts and 32.2 rushing yards per game. Among 48 qualifying starters last season, he ranked 37th in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, 29th in fantasy points per dropback, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. It’s tough to consider him more than a bottom-dwelling QB2 this week despite a nice matchup through the air. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the highest CPOE.
Since Week 5, Tracy Jr. has been the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.1 touches and 98.7 total yards per game. Since Week 5, among 57 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. has ranked ninth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tracy Jr. should have another strong week against a Bucs run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (since Week 5 Tracy Jr. 51.6% zone).
Since Week 7, White has been the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.3 touches and 70.8 total yards. He has averaged 56% of the snaps overall while playing 47.2% of the rushing play snaps, 60.2% of the passing down snaps, and 65% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. Among 53 qualifying backs, White ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. White has a glorious matchup this week against a Giants run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 62.5% zone).
Since Week 7, Irving has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.5 touches and 70.5 total yards per game. He has played 39% of the snaps overall per game while averaging 50.6% of the rushing play snaps, 33.3% of the passing down snaps, and 40% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. The Bucs have utilized him perfectly, with 54.2% of his rushing attempts coming on gap runs. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Irving should post another tasty stat line in Week 12. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs.
Nabers is the WR9 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets among wide receivers. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 4, which is more of an indictment against the offense than it is with Nabers’ role within the offense. Nabers has a 33.8% target share, a 49.5% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 43.7% first-read share. If he can get competent quarterback play from Tommy DeVito this week, he should slay the Bucs secondary. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Nabers popped up on the injury report on Friday (groin). He has been listed as questionable.
McMillan practiced in full all week (hamstring) and doesn’t have an injury designation entering Week 12. In his last game action in Week 8, he had a 14% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, 0.83 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. McMillan could have a big week against a Giants secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and struggled to defend deep passing. McMillan is second on the team in deep targets, behind only Mike Evans. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, a perfect passer rating to deep passing (158.3), and the highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.
Since Week 5, Robinson has been the WR55 in fantasy points per game. With Theo Johnson factoring into the passing game more, Robinson has seen his target share dip some with a 19.3% target share, 1.01 YPRR, 32.8 receiving yards per game, and a 24.2% first-read share. Across his last six games, he has seen four red zone targets and zero end-zone targets. Robinson is a decent flex play this week, especially in PPR formats. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the second-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Since Week 5, Johnson has had a 10.5% target share, 1.08 YPRR, averaged 30.6 receiving yards per game, and seen a 13.3% first-read share. He doesn’t have an end-zone or red-zone target during this span, so his chances of scoring a touchdown are slim. Johnson makes the low end of the tight-end streaming list for Week 12 because the matchup is quite nice. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
In the seven games Darius Slayton has played alongside Malik Nabers, he has had an 11.8% target share, 1.34 YPRR, and an 8.9% first-read share. In that sample, he has only once finished higher than WR36 in weekly fantasy scoring. The matchup is fantastic for Slayton this week, but as the third or maybe fourth option in a Tommy DeVito offense, he’s a thin play that is only reserved for extremely deep leagues and the most desperate fantasy GMs. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Shepard has only had an 8.1% target share and a 9.4% first-read share this season. He hasn’t eclipsed 60 receiving yards in any game this season and has only one red zone target across his last six games. Shepard is in the Darius Slayton level of flex desperation this week. Since Week 6, the Giants have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers, so the matchup is glorious, but Shepard’s profile should leave everyone questioning whether he can take advantage of it in Week 12.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
- DET -7.5, O/U 50.5
- Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 10, Detroit has picked up the pace (eighth-best neutral pace) while remaining run-heavy (third in neutral rushing rate).
- Last week, with Anthony Richardson back, Indy ranked 11th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral rushing rate.
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jared Goff | QB | QB1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB1 |
| David Montgomery | RB | RB1/2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR2 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | TE1 |
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Anthony Richardson | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Sermon | RB | RB4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3/4 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR2 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR6 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Goff is the QB11 in fantasy points per game after last week’s monster game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Indy’s pass defense has improved, but Goff has weapons to overcome this newly crowned tough matchup. Since Week 6, Indy has allowed the ninth-lowest CPOE, the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-lowest yards per attempt.
Montgomery is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 25th in weighted opportunities, ninth in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.8 touches and 80 total yards per game. Montgomery has finished outside the top 24 running backs in weekly scoring only once this season. Among 53 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces an Indy run defense that, since Week 8, has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Montgomery 65% zone).
After last week’s monster game, Williams is the WR27 in fantasy points per game. He has eight deep targets in eight games played, but he hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 2. Williams has a 17% target share, 2.51 YPRR, and a 24.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Indy has leaned into two high with the 12th-highest rate (52.6%). Williams has destroyed two high with a 22.7% target share, 2.96 YPRR, and a 30.8% first-read share. His abilities against two high was a big reason I was so high on him last week, and he’s primed to smash again. Since Week 6, Indy has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Indy has also struggled to defend deep passing this season. They have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Williams leads the team in deep targets.
There’s no slowing down or stopping Downs’ breakout season as the WR17 in fantasy points per game. Downs has finished outside the top 31 fantasy wide receivers in weekly scoring only once since Week 4. He is 11th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Downs has a 24.9% target share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Lions have had the fourth-highest rate of single-high (60%). Against single-high, Downs has seen his YPRR increase to 2.76. Downs should have another banner day against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
LaPorta has practiced in full all week (shoulder) and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 12. LaPorta is the TE15 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking fifth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. He has an 11.6% target share, 2.01 YPRR, and a 12.8% first-read share. LaPorta should have a strong game against a pass defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, Richardson made his triumphant return to the starting lineup as the QB4 in fantasy for the week. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks last week, he ranked seventh in yards per attempt, 16th in catchable target rate, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. This week he’ll need all of the rushing equity he can get his hands against a tougher pass defense. Since Week 6, Detroit has kept passers in check with the fourth-lowest CPOE, the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, and the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.
Since Week 4, Pittman hasn’t had more than 63 receiving yards in any game. He hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points or seen a red zone target since Week 6. It’s been a tough season for Pittman, and he has struggled to stay healthy. Pittman has a 21.1% target share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Lions have had the fourth-highest rate of single-high (60%). Against single-high, Pittman has seen his YPRR drop to 1.37 and his first-read share fall to 21.5%. He’s a must-sit this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Ok, we’re back for another edition of “Is it time to flex Alec Pierce.” Is the team bad against deep passing? Ok, let’s check. Detroit has allowed the second-lowest passer rating and the ninth-lowest deep completion rate. Well, it’s definitely not time to flex Pierce, then. 46.5% of his target volume this season has come via deep passing. Sit him this week, and thanks for coming to my Pierce talk.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
- HOU -7.5, O/U 40.5
- Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 10, Tennessee has had the slowest neutral pace and ranked ninth in neutral rushing rate.
- In their last two games, Houston has ranked 13th in neutral passing rate while having the fourth-slowest neutral pace.
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Will Levis | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | Out |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR2/3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | WR4/5 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | WR6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2/3 |
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB1/2 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | RB1 |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | RB4 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Tank Dell | WR | WR2 |
| John Metchie | WR | WR4 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Stroud is the QB25 in fantasy points per game this season and hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 4. Yes, you read that correctly. It hurt me as much to type it as it was for you to read it. I could write a novel regarding all of the reasons this has come to fruition, but we don’t have time for all of that. I’ll just say that missing his top wide receiver has hurt, along with operating behind an offensive line that has become Swiss cheese. In the five games Nico Collins has played at least 45% of the snaps, Stroud has had 7.58 yards per attempt, a 2.9% CPOE, 262 passing yards per game, and a 6:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. These are all solid numbers that give me hope for Stroud this week with Collins in the starting lineup. As far as the offensive line, Houston has allowed the third-highest pressure rate this season, which should be less of a concern this week against a defense that has generated the tenth-lowest pressure rate. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback. Stroud could be a QB1 this week.
Pollard will revisit his workhorse status this week with Tyjae Spears out. In Weeks 7-9, with Spears out, Pollard played at least 82% of the snaps weekly while averaging 24 touches and 112 total yards. Pollard should see similar usage this week. Among 53 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could surprise people this week. Houston’s run defense hasn’t been a shutdown unit. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the eighth-highest success rate to gap runs (Pollard 57.5% gap).
Last week, with Collins back in the lineup, Dell had a 20.6% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. Dell finished as the WR41 for the week. Dell has six red zone targets in his last six games played. He has been rounding into form as the season has moved along. Since Week 6, among 76 qualifying wide receivers, Dell has ranked sixth in separation and first in route win rate. Dell should excel this week against a Tennessee secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 8, Ridley has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 34th in separation and 24th in route win rate (among 94 qualifying wide receivers). Across his last four games, he has had a 30.4% target share, a 51.7% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 39.1% first-read share. He has also seen two end-zone targets. Houston has two weeks this season where they have heavily deployed two high, but for most of the season, they have been based around single high coverage. In Weeks 2-10, they have utilized single-high with 61.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Ridley has had a 38.7% target share, 3.95 YPRR, and a 46.8% first-read share. He should crush this week if Levis can feed him catchable targets. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Levis is the QB31 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 outing this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 25th in catchable target rate, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Sit him this week. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest CPOE.
Spears has been ruled out for Week 12 (concussion).
Westbrook-Ikhine has been on a touchdown heater with five scores in his last six games, but this isn’t the week to chase that flukey touchdown production. Houston has two weeks this season where they have heavily deployed two high, but for most of the season, they have been based around single high coverage. In Weeks 2-10, they have utilized single-high with 61.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Westbrook-Ikhine has had an 11.3% target share, 0.79 YPRR, and an 8.5% first-read share. Keep Westbrook-Ikhine on the bench this week.
Schultz couldn’t get it done again last week with another nice matchup. He’s been droppable in all formats. He has a 14.3% target share, 1.14 YPRR, and a 14.2% first-read share as the TE24 in fantasy. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC