Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
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- BAL -3, O/U 51
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Baltimore has ranked third in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate. During the same span, the Bolts have had the eighth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 16th in neutral passing rate.
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | RB4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR1/2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR3 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | WR5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE2 |
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Justin Herbert | QB | QB1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | RB2 |
| Gus Edwards | RB | RB3/4 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | WR2 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | WR2/3 |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | WR4/5 |
| Will Dissly | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, with WR3 or higher weekly finishes in five of his last seven games. He has a 22.2% target share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, he has four red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, McConkey leads the team with a 21.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR and a stellar 25% first-read share. He should roast a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. McConkey didn’t practice on Thursday (shoulder), but he did manage limited practice sessions on Friday and Saturday. This hopefully puts him on track to play this week. He has been listed as questionable.
Last week, Johnston saw a season-high eight targets while producing a familiar two receptions, 48 receiving yards, and a score stat line. Last week, Johnston tied McConkey for the team lead in first-read share (31.8%). Overall, as the WR36 in fantasy points per game, Johnson has a 17.3% target share with 2.01 YPRR and a 24.1% first-read share. Johnston has only two red zone targets across his last six games. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, ranks third on the team in target share (12.1%) and first-read share (19.6%) while leading the way with 2.18 YPRR. Johnston is a high-upside flex this week against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Bateman is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring (WR19, WR35, WR2, WR12). He has a 14.9% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He is third on the team in end-zone targets (four). The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Bateman ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target share, first in YPRR (2.79), and second in first-read share (15.9%). Bateman could lead the way against the Bolts’ pass defense this week. Despite it being a tough matchup, Bateman’s efficiency and talent could overcome the matchup. Since Week 6, the Bolts’ secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. Bateman popped up on the injury report on Friday with a knee issue that forced him to miss practice. He practiced in full on Saturday and isn’t listed with an injury designation for Week 12. He should be good to go.
Since Week 6, Dissly has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks. He has had a 20.4% target share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share while seeing five red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Since Week 6, against two high, Dissly has led the team with a 22.5% target share and 25.9% first-read share while ranking second in YPRR (2.07). Dissly should cook again this week against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Dobbins ranks 11th in snap share, 16th in weighted opportunities, and 15th in carries as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 3, his tackle-breaking metrics have been struggling, as he has ranked 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt (among 44 qualifying backs). Dobbins has averaged 17.7 touches and 84.1 total yards. Dobbins will likely need to score a touchdown this week to pay off for fantasy. Since Week 6, Baltimore has remained an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.
While a Gus Edwards revenge game narrative is quite fun, it isn’t likely to lead to droves of fantasy points this week. Over the last two games, Edwards has played 16-25% of the snaps while averaging only eight carries and 41 rushing yards. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing a back in a part-time early-down only role. Since Week 6, Baltimore has remained an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Flowers has had the breakout season that I hoped for as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. Flowers ranks 11th among wide receivers in deep targets, but he has only had two red zone looks in his last nine games. It’s a big reason why he only has four touchdowns this season (18th among wide receivers). Flowers has a 24.2% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a fantastic 29.1% first-read share. The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Flowers’ numbers have dropped off the table with a 20.3% target share and 1.35 YPRR while seeing his first-read share jump to 26.1%. While Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins just ripped the Chargers secondary apart, they have been a tough assignment. Since Week 6, the Bolts’ secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.
Mike Tomlin wasn’t wrong. You have to be part of the game plan and on the field for an opposing coach to worry about you. The same can be said for Fantasy GMs. Until Johson sees his playing time ramp up more, he’s unplayable for fantasy. Last week, he had a 17.1% route share, which is a fancy way to say he ran six routes. That isn’t going to cut it.
Last week, Andrews saw his route share drop back into a familiar area (57.1%) that he has lived at for much of the season. Since Week 5, he has seen seven red zone targets, a 14.1% target share, and a 15.3% first-read share while producing 2.23 YPRR and 22.9 receiving yards per game. Andrews is only a low-end TE1 this week with a horrible matchup. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.
Last week, Likely had a 51.4% route share with an insane 28% TPRR, which resulted in a 15.2% target share. The route share is replicable moving forward, but the target earning rate isn’t. I don’t want to roll the dice with Likely against a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
- Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
- PIT -3.5, O/U 37
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- With Russell Wilson at the helm, Pittsburgh has ranked 13th in neutral script and fourth in neutral rushing rate.
- With Jameis Winston under center, the Browns have ranked ninth in neutral script pace and second in neutral passing rate.
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Russell Wilson | QB | QB1/2 |
| Najee Harris | RB | RB2 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | RB3 |
| George Pickens | WR | WR1/2 |
| Mike Williams | WR | WR5/6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | TE2 |
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jameis Winston | QB | QB2 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB2/3 |
| Jerome Ford | RB | RB4 |
| Cedric Tillman | WR | WR3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | WR3 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | WR4 |
| David Njoku | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
I worried that Wilson was due for a regression game. I knew it was coming eventually, but I didn’t think it would have been against arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL this season. Last week, Wilson finished as the QB26 in fantasy. He has finished as a QB1 twice this season (QB3, QB9). Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 35th in catchable target rate. Wilson could be primed for a bounce-back week against the Browns. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the seventh-most passing yards per game.
Harris is the RB26 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in opportunity share, sixth in carries, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.6 touches and 89 total yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Harris ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should post another nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also giving up the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Warren has finished as an RB3 or higher in three of his last four games (RB34, RB25, RB22). He has averaged 13.5 touches and 70.3 total yards per game. Since Week 7, he has looked closer to his usual self with a 23% missed tackle rate. Warren should be a solid flex play again this week. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also giving up the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Chubb has played only 30-36% of the snaps in three of his four games this season while averaging 13.8 touches and 42.3 total yards. He looks like a player coming off a major injury, with an 11% missed tackle rate and only 2.25 yards after contact per attempt. Chubb has another nice matchup on the ground incoming this week, but I don’t know if he can take advantage of it. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the second-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Chubb 60.4% zone).
Pickens is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has a 26.9% target share, a 47% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the 11th-highest rate (55.3%). Against single high, Pickens has seen his target share jump to 31.7%, his YPRR rise to 3.25, and his first-read share climb to 41.1%. Since Week 6, Cleveland has been eaten alive by perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game.
With Winston under center, Tillman has been the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He has commanded a 20.1% target share and 23.8% first-read share with four end-zone targets (team-leading) and 73.7 receiving yards per game. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Tillman has ranked second on the team with a 24.6% target share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. The question for Tillman and Jerry Jeudy this week is, “Who will Joey Porter Jr. shadow?” Porter Jr. has followed six receivers this season on at least 65.2% of their routes. In his primary coverage, only one receiver surpassed 50 receiving yards, and he allowed only one receiving touchdown. The possible shadow coverage adds some volatility to Tillman’s projection this week. Whoever avoids shadow coverage should eat this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
In his three games with Winston under center, Jeudy has been the WR10 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 21.6% target share and 25.7% first-read share (team-leading) with 2.18 YPRR and 98 receiving yards per game. Jeudy has earned two end-zone targets and one red-zone target during this stretch. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Jeudy has had a 29.8% target share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 34% first-read share. The question for Tillman and Jerry Jeudy this week is, “Who will Joey Porter Jr. shadow?” Porter Jr. has followed six receivers this season on at least 65.2% of their routes. In his primary coverage, only one receiver surpassed 50 receiving yards, and he allowed only one receiving touchdown. The possible shadow coverage adds some volatility to Jeudy’s projection this week. Whoever avoids shadow coverage should eat this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Winston has finished as a QB1 in fantasy in two of his three starts (QB10, QB6). Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating, 17th in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate. He has a tough task this week, facing a nasty pass defense. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has given up the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Winston is a QB2 this week that might be better off on the bench.
With Winston under center, Moore has been the WR28 in fantasy points per game. He has seen a 20.9% target share with 1.57 YPRR and a 22.9% first-read share. Moore has had two end-zone targets. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Moore has seen a 17.5% target share and 19.1% first-read share with 1.70 YPRR. Moore could see a target bump with one of the Browns’ receivers receiving the Joey Porter Jr. treatment this week, but the Steelers have turned into a tough matchup for slot receivers over the last few weeks. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Last week, Mike Williams only played 32% of the snaps and didn’t draw a target. I need a prove-it game from Williams before I’m willing to stick him in a flex spot in a lineup. It has been a tough season for Williams, who has only eclipsed 40 receiving yards in a game once this season.
Njoku has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game, with Winston slinging the rock. He has had a 17.2% target share with 1.47 YPRR and a 14.3% first-read share. He hasn’t seen a red zone or end zone target with Winston as the starter. It’s worth considering streaming options this week over Njoku. The Steelers have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.
Freiermuth has disappointed this season as the TE21 in fantasy points per game. He has only three TE1 finishes this season. He has only two red zone targets since Russell Wilson has had the starting job. Since Week 7, he has had only a 7.4% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and an 8.5% first-read share. Cleveland is 16th in receiving yards per game and yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Freiermuth is droppable.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*