Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, Denver has had the 14th-slowest neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral passing rate. During the same timeframe, Las Vegas has been ninth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB2/3 |
| Audric Estime | RB | RB4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB5 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR2 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | WR3/4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | WR5 |
| Troy Franklin | WR | WR5 |
| Lucas Krull | TE | TE3 |
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Gardner Minshew II | QB | QB2 |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | Doubtful |
| Zamir White | RB | Doubtful |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB | RB3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR3/4 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | WR5 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | TE1 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
The last time Nix faced the Raiders, he finished as the QB8 for the week while completing 70.4% of his passes with 7.6 yards per attempt and two passing scores. Since Week 5, Nix has been the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, among 36 qualifying passers, Nix has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, seventh in CPOE, and 6th in fantasy points per dropback. Nix should continue his hot streak this week. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
Last week, Williams remained the leader of the Denver backfield with 52% of the snaps, 13 touches, and 87 total yards. The blowout nature of last week’s game is diluting Williams’ role last week. In the first three-quarters of the game handled 64% of the snaps overall, 61% of the rushing play snaps, 66% of the passing down snaps, and 85% of the red zone snaps. The last time Williams matched up with the Raiders’ defense, he finished with 18 touches and 111 total yards. Since Week 7, his tackle-breaking metrics haven’t been great, with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt, but the Raiders have a basement-level defense that Williams can succeed against. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-most rushing scores.
Since Week 5, Vele has had an 11.8% target share, 1.98 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. He could lead the way for Denver’s passing attack this week. Since Week 7, the Raiders have moved toward more two high coverage with the fourth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 5, against two high, his target share has risen to 12.9% with a whopping 3.44 YPRR and a 17.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Vele is a very strong flex play this week.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Ok, I understand Minshew passed for 282 yards last week as the QB14 in fantasy, but a broken clock is right once a day. That doesn’t mean that you should be relying upon it. That was only the second time Minshew has had double-digit fantasy points in his last six games. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the ninth-lowest CPOE. No, thank you. Sit Minshew this week.
With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White each listed as doubtful, Abdullah should be the team’s main back this week. Dylan Laube will likely factor in but likely play a supporting role. Last week, Abdullah played 34% of the snaps and finished with four touches and 17 total yards. Over the last two seasons, across 32 carries and 36 receptions, he hasn’t put up impressive stats, with only 2.37 yards after contact per attempt and 0.80 YPRR. Abdullah is a volume-driven and touchdown-dependent flex. Denver has shut down backs since Week 6; they have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the tenth-lowest rushing success rate.
Just when we all thought it was safe to play Estime, Payton pulled the rug out from under us. Last week, the talented rookie only played 23% of the snaps while handling nine touches and producing 25 total yards. Most of that work came late in the game. Estime is a hold if you have the bench space as Javonte Williams‘ backup, but he’s an easy-cut candidate if you don’t have the room.
Sutton is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 5, Sutton has had a 22.1% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 30.6% first-read share. Since Week 7, the Raiders have moved toward more two high coverage with the fourth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 5, against two high, Sutton has had a 21.1% target share and 27.3% first-read share, but his YPRR has dropped off a table to 0.85. He’ll get plenty of volume this week, but it’s questionable how efficient he’ll be with it. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 4, Meyers has been the WR27 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 24.6% target share with 1.78 YPRR and a 32.5% first-read share. He has two end zone targets in his last five games played. In his last meeting with Denver, Patrick Surtain followed him on 50% of his routes. With Surtain on him, he had only two targets, securing one with 18 scoreless receiving yards. Meyers finished with nine targets, six receptions, and 72 scoreless receiving yards. Surtain only followed Drake London on 50% of his routes last week, so we might see Surtain in Meyers’ back pocket at a similar clip as their last meeting. Since Week 6, Denver has ranked 16th in PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 5, Arizona has ranked seventh in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate. In the same timeframe, Seattle has ranked fourth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kyler Murray | QB | QB1 |
| James Conner | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Benson | RB | RB3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | WR2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR4 |
| Greg Dortch | WR | WR6 |
| Zay Jones | WR | WR6 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
| Geno Smith | QB | QB1/2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | RB1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | RB3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR2 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | WR3/4 |
| Noah Fant | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Smith-Njigba continues to explode in his sophomore season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game. He has eight red zone targets across his last seven games played. Since Week 7, Arizona has had the 11th-highest two-high rate (50%). Smith-Njigba has been Seattle’s go-to weapon against two high with a team-leading 23.5% target share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Arizona has still struggled against slot receivers, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in passer rating when targeted (106.1). Smith-Njigba should lead the way for Seattle’s aerial assault this week.
Harrison Jr. has stumbled to WR37 in fantasy points per game this season. Among wide receivers, he ranks tenth in deep targets, but he has only five red zone targets this season, with only one over his last six games. His splits against single high and two high coverage have been pronounced. Recently, those splits have improved some, which could lead to a better day for Harrison Jr. in Week 12 than many expect. Since Week 7, against two high, he has had a 20% target share, 2.16 YPRR, and a team-leading 33.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized two high at the 12th-highest rate (50%). This is a neutral matchup for Harrison Jr. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Smith continues his volume-fueled fantasy assault as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Smith is third in passing attempts and first in passing yards per game. His per-dropback metrics aren’t nearly as kind. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith faces what has become a tough Arizona pass defense. Since Week 6, Arizona has kept quarterbacks in check with the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Smith will still sit somewhere around the low-end QB1 territory with his extreme passing volume but don’t expect an otherworldly or efficient performance.
Lockett is the WR50 in fantasy points per game with nine deep targets and seven red zone targets in his ten games played. He has five red zone targets in his last five games. Lockett has a 13.1% target share, 1.40 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Lockett this week.
Wilson is a low-end flex not worth worrying about this week. He has been a fringe flex option all year as the WR70 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t had more than 31 receiving yards in any game since Week 5. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized two high at the 12th-highest rate (50%). Since Week 7, against two high, Wilson has had only a 12.7% target share, 0.67 YPRR, and a 15.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Leave Wilson on the waiver wire or the bench for Week 12.
Fant has been listed as questionable (groin). He didn’t practice on Wednesday but then was upgraded to a limited practice on Thursday and a full session on Friday. Fant should be back this week. Fant isn’t in streaming consideration this week. He has only managed a 10% target share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 12.0% first-read share with one end-zone target. Arizona has limited tight ends to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards per reception, and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
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- GB -5.5, O/U 44.5
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, San Francisco has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate. During the same stretch, Green Bay has operated with the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Brandon Allen | QB | QB2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | RB1 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | WR2 |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR | WR5 |
| George Kittle | TE | TE1 |
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB2 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | WR3 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Christian Watson | WR | WR3/4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jacobs is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and 18th in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.9 touches and 102.4 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The Packers should lean on Jacobs again this week. Since Week 6, the 49ers’ run defense has been vulnerable, allowing the second-highest missed tackle rate, the 12th-highest yards after the contact per attempt, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, and the sixth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Jacobs 50.6% gap).
Samuel has finished as a WR2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in four of his nine games played this season. Samuel has an 18.5% target share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. He is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), in the eight games Samuel has played at least 62.7% of the snaps, he has had a 19% TPRR and 1.94 YPRR against two high. The 49ers should look to feature Samuel’s dynamic run after the catch ability this week against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate per reception and the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. Among 56 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranks second in yards after the catch per reception and 15th in missed tackles forced per reception. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target, but Samuel’s unique skillset and run-after-the-catch ability can overcome a tough matchup. With Brandon Allen at the helm this week, the 49ers could lean more on Samuel’s rushing ability and easy yards after the catch ability.
Since his return, Jennings has been amazing, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game while soaking up a 32.8% target share and a 41.3% first-read share with 2.71 YPRR and 92 receiving yards per game. Jennings has seven deep targets and nine red zone looks in his eight games played. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), Jennings has led the team in TPRR (29%) and YPRR (3.29). Jennings should be a focal point of the passing attack again this week. Jennings will have to deal with Green Bay’s talented secondary that, since Week 6, has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. Jennings still likely has a strong target volume floor, but Brandon Allen, as quarterback, might limit his ceiling this week.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Love is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 finishes in five of his eight games played. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Love ranks seventh in yards per attempt, ninth in passing touchdowns, and 11th in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. He could easily overcome a tough matchup in Week 12 to post another QB1 week, but make no mistake that he’ll have a tough road to walk in Week 12. Since Week 6, the 49ers have remained a stout pass defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest passing yards per game.
Allen will draw the start this week with Brock Purdy out. The last time we saw Allen start for more than a game was in 2020 when he got a five-game cup of coffee as the starter for Cincy. In those games, he surpassed 220 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns only once. In 2020, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen ranked 41st in passing grade, 33rd in yards per attempt, and 38th in adjusted completion rate. He finished higher than QB25 in weekly fantasy, scoring only once. Allen is a low-end QB2, and his limitations will likely hurt the 49ers’ scoring ability this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback. San Francisco could lean on Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel heavily this week. Each player can churn out yards after the catch with easy underneath looks for Allen. Green Bay has allowed the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception.
Doubs is the WR52 in fantasy points per game with three weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seven deep targets this season, but he has had a red zone target since Week 7. Overall, he’s had a 17.4% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Doubs has led the team with a 27% TPRR while ranking second in YPRR (2.61) and first in first-read share (29.2%). Doubs should lead the way through the air for Green Bay this week. Since Week 6, the 49ers have been shutting down perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to the position.
Watson is coming off a game where he led the team with a 23.5% target share and 33.3% first-read share. He had a 76.1% air-yard share and 150 receiving yards. Overall, Watson has an 11.5% target share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share. He has three red zone targets in his last five games. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Watson has ranked second in TPRR (22%), first in YPRR (3.91), and third in first-read share (16.7%). We’ll see if Watson can continue his otherworldly efficiency against these coverages this week. He’ll need to if he wants to walk away from Week 12 with a strong game against a tough opponent. Since Week 6, the 49ers have been shutting down perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to the position.
Reed is the WR16 in fantasy points per game with ten deep targets this season. He hasn’t seen a red-zone look since Week 6. Overall, he has a 16.6% target share, 2.80 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Reed has ranked third on the team in TPRR (20%) and YPRR (2.53) and second in first-read share (18.8%). This doesn’t project to be a “big Reed week.” Since Week 6, San Francisco has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
With Jauan Jennings back, Pearsall has had a 10.9% target share, 1.52 YPRR, 36.5 receiving yards per game, and a 15.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), Pearsall has ranked fourth on the team with a 16% TPRR and only 1.0 YPRR. Pearsall is a must-sit this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target.
Kraft is the TE10 in fantasy points per game while ranking sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has a 12.2% target share, 1.61 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. This is a week to consider streaming a tight end over Kraft. The 49ers have held tight ends to the fourth-lowest receiving yards per game, the lowest yards per reception, and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Philly has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate. In the same timeframe, the Rams have ranked ninth in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | Out |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Rams Players & Weekly Rankings
| Matthew Stafford | QB | QB2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Blake Corum | RB | RB4 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | WR1/2 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | WR1/2 |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | WR4 |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | WR6 |
| Davis Allen | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Godert has remained a steady option despite Philly’s run-heavy offense. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has at least 10.5 PPR points in four of his last five games. Goedert has a 17.9% target share, has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game, has 2.32 YPRR, and has a 21.1% first-read share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranks eighth in separation and sixth in route win rate. He should be a strong TE1 again this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With DeVonta Smith ruled out, the passing tree gets more consolidated. Hurts could hyper-target A.J. Brown and Goedert this week, as both have plus matchups.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Stafford has been a new quarterback with all of his weapons back, with at least 18.9 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He likely doesn’t keep that streak up this week as he runs into a buzzsaw named the Philly pass defense. Since Week 8, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 6, Philly has held quarterbacks to the lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. Stafford will have a difficult day ahead of him, but he has the weapons at his disposal to post a serviceable QB2 stat line.
Robinson has come back down to earth over the last two weeks. Since Week 10, he has had a 9.6% target share, 0.71 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. He has seen two end-zone targets, but he has only managed 21 receiving yards per game with zero touchdowns. Robinson is a must-sit this week against a Philly secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Smith has been ruled out (hamstring).
Allen isn’t worth a roster spot at this point. Since Week 10, he has had a 74% route share, an 8.2% target share, only 0.60 YPRR, and 17 receiving yards per game. That type of volume only has a pulse in fantasy in a wonderful matchup. Allen definitely doesn’t have that this week. Philly has shut down tight ends, allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.
PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC