The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -7.5, O/U 46.5
• New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Drake Maye under center, New England has been 15th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
• Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Miami has operated with the sixth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 13th in neutral passing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• De’Von Achane

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, he has been QB22 in fantasy points per game. He has only finished as a QB1 once in that stretch (QB11). Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, 14th in CPOE, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. In this span, he has the second-lowest aDOT. Only Gardner Minshew has had a lower aDOT. Despite all of these factors, Tagovailoa could flirt with QB1 value again this week as New England’s pass defense has been in the dumpster. Since Week 6, the Patriots have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye has finished as a QB1 in two of his five full NFL starts. He has rushed for at least 24 yards in five games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 29th in yards per attempt, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Maye should at least return strong QB2 value this week with an outside shot of finishing as a QB1 if he can stack some rushing production. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest CPOE, and the tenth-highest success rate per dropback.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Everyone has choices to make in life. Some good and well, some not so good. We’ll file the New England Patriots coaching staff’s decision not to shadow Puka Nacua with Christian Gonzalez last week under not-so-good. In Week 5, Christian Gonzalez followed Tyreek Hill on 78% of his routes, limiting him to four receptions and 59 scoreless receiving yards. We’ll see if they let Gonzalez shadow him or allow Hill to destroy them this week. That’s also assuming that Gonzalez is active this week. He popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hip issue and has been listed as questionable. If Gonzalez is out, Hill could be off to the races. Since Tagovailoa’s return, Hill has had a 20% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. He has four end-zone targets across his last four games. If you have Hill, you’re starting him weekly in nearly every instance. Since Week 6, New England has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Since Tagovailoa’s return, Waddle has only had a 13.1% target share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 14.4% first-read share. I don’t know why Miami refuses to throw Waddle the ball, but it’s not happening. Could that change this week if Gonzalez shadows Hill? Sure, it is a possibility. If Tagovailoa does feed Waddle, he should have plenty of success against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

In his four full games played with Maye, Douglas has had a 66.3% route share, a 20.1% target share, 2.11 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. He has zero end-zone targets and only one red-zone target in those four games. His chances of scoring a touchdown are slim weekly. Douglas is a PPR flex play only. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Hunter Henry (TE)

In Maye’s five full starts, Henry has had a 17.6% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a team-leading 22.6% first-read share. He has finished as a TE1 in four of those games (TE7, TE6, TE10, TE7). He has eight red zone targets in this small five-game sample. Henry should flirt with low-end TE1 value again this week against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 8, Smith has had a 17.7% target share, 2.21 YPRR, two end zone targets, and a 20% first-read share. He is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 weeks this season. He ranks fifth in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets among tight ends. Smith has run 53% of his routes from the slot this season. New England has allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, 16th in opportunity share, and fourth in red zone touches. Since Week 8, he has played at least 70% of the snaps weekly while averaging 20.8 touches and 71.3 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson will have to rely upon volume and touchdown equity this week because the efficiency won’t be there. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate while having the 12th-highest stuff rate.

PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -10.5, O/U 45
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Dallas hasn’t adjusted anything, with Cooper Rush at the helm, ranking second in neutral pace and 11th in neural passing rate. Since Week 10, Washington has ranked fourth in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

Daniels has to be discussed this week after back-to-back QB24 weekly finishes in fantasy. Dan Quinn has stated that Daniels is healthy, but I don’t know if I’m buying it. Since Week 8, Daniels has had at least an 18.2% off-target rate or higher in three of four games. Last week, his aDOT was a season-low of 3.7 yards. Over the last two weeks, Daniels has averaged only five rushing attempts and 11.5 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 1-9, in Daniels’ full games played, he only once had less than eight rushing attempts and 35 rushing yards. I’m hoping we see Daniels look more like the ridiculously talented rookie that we have come to love, but I have my worries. If Daniels can bounce back, he should shred the Dallas pass defense. Since Week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, the highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Daniels should enjoy clean pockets against a defense that during that time frame has ranked 15th in pressure rate.

Brian Robinson Jr.(RB)

Last week, Robinson Jr. played his highest snap rate since Week 4. He had 53% of the snaps with 17 touches and 72 total yards. Robinson Jr. only handled 36% of the passing down snaps last week as Austin Ekeler took the lead in that department. We could see Robinson Jr. eat into Ekeler’s workload more in that area this week, and his overall snap rate creep into the 60% range this week if he’s healthier. Robinson Jr. has averaged 15.9 touches and 76.6 total yards per game as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. He is 17th in red zone touches. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate and 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Robinson Jr. should run wild this week. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest gap rushing success rate (Robinson 55.6% gap).

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Last week, Ekeler played 52% of the snaps while playing 59% of the passing down snaps. Ekeler could see his snaps drop some this week if Washington is in positive game script more and with Brian Robinson Jr. healthier. In Weeks 1-2, Ekeler averaged 8.5 touches and 73.5 total yards, with Robinson Jr. playing his usual role. Among 53 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranks 45th in yards after contact per attempt and 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Ekeler is a strong flex play this week against a leaky Dallas run defense. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest gap rushing success rate (Ekeler 56.9% gap).

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Dallas has been blown out in each of the last two games, which has led to Dowdle’s final snap counts lying to an extent. In the first three-quarters of the last two games, Dowdle has played 59% of the snaps, with 81% of the rushing play snaps and 56% of the red zone snaps. Since Week 10, he has averaged 13.5 touches and 45 total yards. Since Week 9, among 32 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks ninth in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. On a per-snap basis, he has played well, but Dallas’s quarterback play, the game scripts, and Mike McCarthy’s insistence upon remaining pass-heavy despite the putrid quarterback play have hurt Dowdle. If Dallas can keep this game competitive, Dowdle can walk away with a nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the seventh-highest success rate to zone runs (since Week 9, Dowdle 55.9% zone).

Terry McLaurin (WR)

I’m willing to toss last week in the trash for McLaurin. He has been so good this season that one game shouldn’t deter us from playing him. McLaurin is the WR21 in fantasy points per game while ranking sixth in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he is 13th in separation and 14th in route win rate. McLaurin has a 20.9% target share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share. McLaurin should have a strong bounceback game this week against a Dallas secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Noah Brown (WR)

Brown is the WR72 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 or higher weekly finishes this season (WR23, WR35). In his nine games played, he has six deep targets and three red zone targets. Since Week 3, Brown has had a 15.9% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 3, Dallas has ranked eighth in single high rate (56.9%). During that same timeframe, against single-high, Brown has had a 16.9% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Brown is a viable flex play this week against a Dallas secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has finished as a TE1 in 55% of his games this season. Ertz has an 18.1% target share, 1.54 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Among 43 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranks third in separation and second in route win rate. It has been an impressive season for the veteran. He should flirt with TE1 value again this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the highest yards per reception and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Rush at least had a pulse in Week 11 as the QB18 in fantasy as compared to the putrid performance he turned in the week prior. That still doesn’t make him playable outside of the deepest of Superflex leagues. Over the last two weeks, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 26th in catchable target rate, 29th in CPOE, and 32nd in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, Washington has stepped up their pass defense game, allowing the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest passing yards per game.

CeeDee Lamb (WR)

With Cooper Rush at quarterback over the last two games, Lamb has had a 24.7% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 36.8% first-read share. Last week, he had a bounceback game as the WR14 for the week. Lamb has two red zone targets and an end zone target in this sample. Lamb is a volume-infused WR2 moving forward who faces a Washington pass defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson has been ruled out for Week 12 (concussion).

Luke Schoonmaker (TE)

Last week, in the final three-quarters of the game, Schoonmaker had a 50.9% route share while drawing a 20.4% target share and 27.6% first-read share. He produced 2.0 YPRR and 56 receiving yards. With Jake Ferguson out this week, Schoonmaker will assume the top pass-catching duties for the tight end room, but he’ll likely still split routes with Brevyn Spann-Ford. The fact that he isn’t seeing a 70% route share or higher does add some volatility to his Week 12 projection. Washington is 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends while also giving up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns. Schoonmaker is on the low end of the tight-end streaming list this week.

*I want no part of a Cooper Rush passing attack for fantasy, but CeeDee Lamb and possibly Luke Schoonmaker could see enough volume to remain viable for our purposes. All of the other tertiary options in the Dallas passing attack are must-sit players until further notice.*

PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

• MIN -3.5, O/U 39.5
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, Chicago had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 8, Minnesota has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Darnold is the QB13 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games this season. Since Week 5, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate while also sporting the sixth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. The Bears’ pass defense has fallen off. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest CPOE. Don’t be surprised if Darnold is a QB1 in Week 12.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Last week, with Thomas Brown at the controls, the Bears offense looked quite different for Caleb Williams. He tied a season-high with nine rushing attempts while setting a new season-high with 70 rushing yards. Williams had four designed runs when he had only three in the entire season entering Week 11. In Weeks 1-10, Williams’ aDOT was 8.6, his average time to throw was 2.70, and he threw to his first-read 60.5% of the time. Last week, the name of the game was to simplify things for Williams and get the ball out of his hands quickly. His aDOT dropped to 6.7 while his average time to throw was 2.21 (eighth-fastest), and he threw to his first read on 87.1% of his passing plays. This approach should help to minimize the high pressure and blitz rates he’ll face this week. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate and pressure rate. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passer rating, and rank 16th in EPA per dropback. Last week, Williams was the QB22 in fantasy. He should return solid QB2 production this week.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in snap share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and 13th in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.6 touches and 95.4 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 31st in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones should have a nice day against a Bears run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards per game, and the tenth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 56.1% zone).

Rome Odunze (WR)

Last week, Odunze led the team with a 32.3% target share, a 53.6% air-yard share, 2.17 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Odunze’s takeover has been slowly coming since after the bye. I’ve discussed his first-read share leading the way in various games since Chicago’s bye. Since Week 8, Odunze has been tied for second on the team with a 27.3% first-read share and tied for the team lead with two end-zone targets. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. If Williams can have a productive game in Week 12, Odunze could smash.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Since his Week 9 return, Hockenson has had one TE1 finish and two red zone targets. He has had a 57.1% route share, a 15.2% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 14.5% first-read share. Hockenson should flirt with low-end TE1 value in Week 12. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Last week, Swift lost his stranglehold on the Bears’ backfield, playing 54% of the snaps overall, 59% of the rushing plays, and only 29% of the snaps in the red zone. Roschon Johnson had a 71% snap rate inside the red zone. That will be problematic for Swift moving forward if it sticks. Swift is the RB19 in fantasy, averaging 18.3 touches and 87.8 total yards. Last week, Swift had 16 touches and 84 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift will run into brick walls all day in Week 12. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the second-lowest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt and the 11th-lowest explosive run rate. Swift has been listed as questionable this week (groin). He didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he had a limited practice session on Thursday and full practice participation on Friday.

DJ Moore (WR)

Since Week 8, Moore has had a 19.8% target share, 0.94 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Last week, Moore had a 22.6% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and he was third on the team with a 25.9% first-read share. 57.1% of his targets were designed (no other wide receiver had above a 12.5% designed target rate. Moore’s aDOT was only 0.9 yards. Thomas Brown was feeding him underneath designed looks which will help his PPR value, but it could hurt his ceiling weekly. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Moore’s underneath role won’t be great this week, though. Since Week 6, Minnesota has also given up the sixth-lowest yards after contact per reception and the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate per reception (ninth-lowest yards after the catch). Moore will have issues creating after the catch this week.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Last week, Allen had a 25.8% target share (second on the team) with a 30.3% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 29.6% first-read share (tied for first). Allen has only one red zone target over his last four games. Allen remains a decent but not awesome flex play weekly. Since Week 6, Minnesota has ranked 15th in PPR points per target and 17th in passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison is the WR43 in fantasy points per game with ten deep targets and four red zone targets in his eight games played. He has three red zone targets in his last three games. Addison has a 17% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (62.4%). Against single high, Addison’s first-read share has increased to 23.6%, but his YPRR has dropped to 1.34. Since Week 6, Chicago has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Don’t expect a massive Addison stat line in Week 12.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Since Week 8, Kmet has been squeezed out of the target pie with only a 6.3% target share, 0.62 YPRR, 17.3 receiving yards per game, and a 7.8% first-read share. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Sit Kmet this week. He is getting close to being droppable in all redraft formats.

PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers

• KC -10.5, O/U 43
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Carolina has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking third in neutral rushing rate. During the same span, Kansas City has had the 11th-slowest neutral pace while ranking seventh in neutral passing rate.

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Mahomes has been a QB1 in two of his last three games. Since Week 9, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 14th in passer rating, third in passing touchdowns, 13th in passing yards per game, and 17th in CPOE. Mahomes should flirt with low-end QB1 value again this week. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Since Week 6, Hunt has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 90 total yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. With his efficiency lacking, when Pacheco does factor into this backfield heavily, it will definitely hurt Hunt’s fantasy value. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 14th-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Last week, Worthy saw his role change again with a 15.2% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 22.2% first read share. His aDOT, which had rested between 17-23 yards in the previous two weeks, fell to 14.2. His role more closely resembled the one he was playing in Week 8 and the few games after Rashee Rice‘s injury. The Kansas City passing attack seems in flux as Andy Reid is moving players around to different roles to see how all the pieces fit. It wouldn’t shock me if Worthy moved back into the MVS role in Week 12 and was back to running clearouts for most of the game. Like Hopkins, Worthy is a volatile flex this week. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while sitting at 18th in fantasy points per game given up to the position.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE)

Sanders lands on the tight-end streaming radar this week. Since Week 6, he has had a 14.5% target share with 2.14 YPRR and a 12.4% first-read share. The matchup is glorious. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 6, Sanders has led the team with 2.65 YPRR and a 28% TPRR against two high (minimum ten routes). Kansas City has also allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

Since Week 8, Young has been the QB30 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 31st in catchable target rate, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Young is a must-sit this week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns, the tenth-lowest yard per attempt, and the ninth-fewest passing yards per game.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in snap share and opportunity share and 14th in red zone touches. Hubbard has averaged 19.1 touches and 94.2 total yards per game. Hubbard will lose a few snaps this week to Jonathon Brooks. Much like with Kareem Hunt, this could be a problem in a week or two for Hubbard, but it doesn’t change his outlook for Week 12. Hubbard will run into brick walls all day against a Chiefs run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and the lowest rushing yards per game and missed tackle rate.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Hopkins route share has now trended downward for three straight games, from 62% to 51.4% last week. His first-read share has also taken a nosedive from 28% in Week 9 to only 11.1% last week. These trends are nightmare fuel for a player who looked like he was trending toward a high-volume role in the Chiefs offense weekly. Last week, Hopkins had a 12.1% target share, 1.61 YPRR, and 29 receiving yards. He has become a volatile flex quickly. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while sitting at 18th in fantasy points per game given up to the position.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Since Week 8, Legette has had a 19.1% target share, a 30.9% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share. In that small stretch, Legette finished as a WR3 twice (WR33, WR28) in weekly scoring and saw two red zone targets. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 8, against two high, Legette’s target share has fallen to 17.1% and his YPRR has dropped to 1.32. Sit Legette this week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Thielen has practiced on a limited basis all week (hamstring). Dave Canales has stated that he will play this week, but the question is how much. With Jalen Coker out, Thielen will likely take over the slot role this week. If you are in a deep league and desperate for a flex play, I get it. The matchup is good for Thielen. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Coker has been ruled out (quad).

PIT vs. CLE | TB vs. NYG | DET vs. IND | TEN vs. HOU | NE vs. MIA | DAL vs. WAS | MIN vs. CHI | KC vs. CAR | DEN vs. LV | ARI vs. SEA | SF vs. GB | PHI vs. LAR | BAL vs. LAC