Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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• LAC -1.5, O/U 47.5
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Cincy has ranked 15th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate. During that time frame, the Bolts had the fourth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 16th in neutral passing rate.

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Last week, the Titans didn’t push the Chargers offense to air it out as Herbert threw the ball only 18 times. He was quite efficient with the volume, though, completing 77.7% of his passes with 9.1 yards per attempt. Herbert’s health improvement can be seen easily from his recent box scores. Herbert has rushed for at least 32 yards in two of his last three games. Since Week 7, he has been the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Across his last four games, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt and passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Herbert could be a QB1 again this week against a pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest passer rating.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Johnston has flashed some upside this season as the WR37 in fantasy points per game. He has three WR3 or higher weekly finishes this season (WR11, WR8, WR29). Johnston has a 16.3% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 22.6% first-read share. He has two red zone targets across his last three games. Since Week 8, Cincy has moved towards more two high with the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (53.1%). Against two high, Johnston ranks first on the team with 2.40 YPRR and third with a 15% TPRR and 19.1% first-read share. Johnston could have another big game this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the third-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to boundary wide receivers.

Will Dissly (TE)

Since Week 6, Dissly has had a 62.1% route share, a 21.3% target share, 1.70 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. Across those five games, he has had five red zone targets. Since Week 8, Cincy has moved towards more two high with the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (53.1%). Against two high, Dissly leads the team with a 31% TPRR and 23.9% first-read share while ranking second with 2.33 YPRR. Dissly should be an integral part of the passing attack this week against a Cincy defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

The box score last week lied. This remains Dobbins’ backfield. Dobbins played 67% of the snaps last week and 59% of the snaps in the red zone. The biggest concern for Dobbins is that his tackle-breaking metrics have been awful since Week 3. Since Week 3, among 40 qualifying backs, Dobbins ranks 35th in explosive run rate, 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. There’s nothing pretty there. Dobbins has survived with volume with 19.2 touches and 73.1 total yards per game during that stretch as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. This isn’t a great matchup for Dobbins. Since Week 5, Cincy has ranked 15th in rushing yards per game allowed while holding backs to the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Edwards is a flex play that is best left on the bench this week. Last week, he returned to play 25% of the snaps overall and only 29% of the snaps in the red zone. Edwards logged ten carries with his 15 snaps played for 55 rushing yards. This isn’t the plus rushing matchup that many think it is. Since Week 5, Cincy has ranked 15th in rushing yards per game allowed while holding backs to the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. Sit Edwards.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is the WR31 in fantasy points per game and has four red zone targets across his last six games. McConkey has a 21.8% target share, a 28.2% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with four end-zone targets. Since Week 8, Cincy has moved towards more two high with the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (53.1%). Against two high, McConkey has seen his market share numbers stay fairly consistent, with his first-read share dropping to 22.4%, but his YPRR has dipped to 1.64. Add in that Cincy has been tough against slot receivers, and McConkey is likely headed toward a quieter week. The Bengals have held slot receivers to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Higgins opens this week with a limited practice (quad). He didn’t practice at all last week, so this is an improvement. I’ll update his status on Friday, but it’s likely a coin flip that he plays this week.

Mike Gesicki (TE)

Gesicki’s role in the offense has had massive swings this season. This has been tied to Tee Higgins‘ availability. We need more info to see if Higgins will play this week. I’ll update Gesicki’s outlook on Friday.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

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• HOU -7.5, O/U 42
• Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, Dallas ranked sixth-best in neutral pace and had the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 7, Houston has had the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking fifth in neutral rushing rate.

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Mixon
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Stroud hasn’t had the season we all hoped for as the QB22 in fantasy points per game. He has only been a QB1 in weekly fantasy scoring twice this season and has zero QB1 finishes since Week 4. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 26th in CPOE, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. The biggest issue plaguing him this season has been pressure. His leaky offensive line has allowed the third-highest pressure rate. That could be a problem again this week. Since Week 5, Dallas has ranked third in pressure rate. If (and I know it’s a big if) Stroud can get clean pockets in Week 11, he should be able to shred this pass defense if Nico Collins is back. Since Week 5, Dallas has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest CPOE.

Tank Dell (WR)

Dell is the WR45 in fantasy points per game with three games as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring on his 2024 resume. Dell has an 18.1% target share, 1.40 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share. There are so many ways to approach Dell’s season, and it’s nearly impossible to get a clean set of data to extrapolate and surmise his Week 11 outlook. Early in the season, when he played with Nico Collins, he wasn’t fully 100% himself, and Stefon Diggs was present. After Nico Collins was lost to injury, Diggs was Dell’s running mate, and over the last few games, Dell has been the standout target hog. The best indicator that I can offer to give context to where Dell is at right now is his per-route efficiency. Since Week 6, he has looked like the player who took the league by storm (among 64 qualifying wide receivers), ranking sixth in separation and second in route win rate. If Stroud can stay upright, Dell should have another nice box score this week. Since Week 5, Dallas has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Last week, Schultz had his first TE1 finish of the season (TE11), but he still has yet to manage double-digit fantasy points this season. He has a 13.7% target share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. Schultz has only two red zone targets this season and hasn’t seen a target inside the 20-yard line since Week 4. I’d love to tell you that Schultz was a nice streamer this week because the matchup is nice, but I don’t know if he takes advantage of this matchup when he hasn’t done so to this point of the season. Dallas has allowed the highest yards per reception and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (tied).

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cooper Rush (QB)

#NeverCooperRush. Naw. Nope. Even in Superflex, I wouldn’t be starting Rush. Last week was a loud reminder, as Rush had 2.0 yards per attempt and 45 passing yards. No, that’s not a typo. Houston has been a good pass defense, too. Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Last week’s blowout loss to Philly skewed Dowdle’s numbers. In the first three-quarters of that game, Dowdle played 58% of the snaps, handling 58% of the rushing work and a 38% route share. That route share isn’t far off the 46% that he saw in Week 9 when he played 71% of the snaps and had 17 touches and 107 total yards. I expect Dowdle to see 13-15 touches this week. Since Week 5, among 54 qualifying backs, Dowdle has flashed more juice, ranking 27th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle has a tough road to travel this week. Houston has remained a tough run defense. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, the sixth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs, and the fourth-lowest success rate to zone runs (since Week 5, Dowdle 55.1% zone).

CeeDee Lamb (WR)

Last week, with Rush under center, Lamb had a 31% target share and a 39.1% first-read share. Sadly, all of that volume only amounted to 21 receiving yards, and only 67% of those targets were deemed catchable. I expect Lamb to get peppered again this week, but it’s a real question moving forward if he can do anything with the putrid target quality that he’ll see for the rest of the season. Lamb ranks seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. He’s closer to being volume-driven WR2/3 for the rest of the season than WR1. Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the tenth-lowest passer rating when targeted and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Last week with Cooper Rush, Ferguson had a 13.8% target share, 1.04 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. He finished with four receptions and 24 scoreless receiving yards as the TE25 for the week. Ferguson will be a matchup-based streamer moving forward, and the matchup isn’t right to consider playing him this week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest receiving yards to tight ends.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*