Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

• NYJ -4, O/U 44
• Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Anthony Richardson‘s final two starts, the Colts ranked first in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate. I’d expect a similar approach moving forward.
• Since Week 7, the Jets have ranked 20th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Jonathan Taylor
• Garrett Wilson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Last week might have been the final straw for Rodgers in fantasy. He had a cakewalk matchup last week against the burnable Arizona secondary and Rodgers proceeded to throw for 151 yards, zero scores, 4.3 yards per attempt, and post 4.0 fantasy points. Four. Fantasy. Points. No, that’s not a typo. I’d love to tell you Rodgers will take advantage of this great matchup, but I can’t do so with any shred of confidence. If you need the theoretical upside this week at the quarterback position, I get it, but it might just be only that. Theoretical upside. Rodgers is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weeks this season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback, 23rd in passer rating, and 26th in catchable target rate. Woof. Again the Colts offer a wonderful matchup for the Jets passing attack to fake us out again this week. Indy has allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, and the 11th-highest CPOE.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Richardson is back as the Colts’ starting quarterback. Phew…that didn’t take long, did it? We were all sold a bill of goods that Joe Flacco would be the starter for the rest of the season. The NFL landscape changes quickly, people. You better keep your head on a swivel. Richardson is the QB29 in fantasy points per game while ranking fifth in carries per game and rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Richardson ranks 19th in yards per attempt, dead last in CPOE, first in hero throw rate, and 16th in fantasy points per dropback. Richardson faces a pass defense that has lost its teeth over the last few weeks. Since Week 6, the Jets have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, the fourth-highest EPA per dropback, and ranked 18th in time to pressure. Richardson could come back and surprise people this week with his performance.

Davante Adams (WR)

Since joining the Jets, Adams has been the WR33 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 26.9% target share and 33% first-read share while producing 1.62 YPRR and 51.5 receiving yards per game. The age cliff arrives swiftly for veteran wide receivers, and it seems like this is what we’re seeing with Adams. Since Week 7, among 82 qualifying wide receivers, Adams ranks 43rd in separation and 52nd in route win rate. These should be eye-opening numbers, especially as we project Adams for the rest of the season. Since Week 7, the Colts have changed up their coverage structure with the eighth-highest rate of two high (52%). After the cold water I just tossed on Adams’ rest-of-season outlook, I’ll also say that he could have a mini-revival this week with a plus matchup secondary and coverage shell matchup. Since Week 7, Adams has led the way against two-high with a 27.1% target share, 2.20 YPRR, and a 34.2% air-yard share. Indy has allowed the third-most receiving yards and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in red zone targets. In the three full games he has played with Anthony Richardson, Downs has had a 21.1% target share, 2.03 YPRR, one red zone target, and a team-leading 29.1% first-read share. Downs should lead the way for the Colts’ passing attack again this week. Since Week 6, the Jets have been a kinder matchup for slot receivers, allowing the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Since Week 7, Conklin has seen his role diminished with a 9% target share, 0.56 YPRR (13.5 receiving yards per game), and an 8.8% first-read share. He does have two end-zone targets in this four-game stretch. Conklin could see an uptick in work this week. The Colts have bled out production to tight ends all season, allowing the eighth-highest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman was out last week as he was tending to the back issue that has plagued him for much of this season. I’ll update his status on Friday. He may miss Week 11.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Mitchell’s starting spot is contingent upon Pittman missing another game. If Pittman plays, Mitchell will slide back into his part-time role. If Pittman sits, Mitchell will run opposite Alec Pierce on the outside in Week 11. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Alec Pierce (WR)

In the five full games Pierce has played with Richardson, he has seen a 15.5% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, and a 15.6% first-read share, producing 2.13 YPRR and 50.2 receiving yards per game. He has consistently been the team’s deep threat this season, and that has also been the case with Richardson (23.0 aDOT). The simple rule to follow with Pierce is to flex him against teams that fail to defend deep passing well. That’s not the case for the Jets. They have allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating and the eighth-lowest completion rate to deep passing. 48.7% of Pierce’s targets have been on deep throws this season. Sit Pierce.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -2.5, O/U 44
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, the Falcons have become a run-balanced offense, ranking tenth in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate. During the same span, Denver has had the 14th-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral passing rate.

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Since Week 5, Nix has been the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 31 qualifying passers during this span, he has been 11th in passing grade, 17th in yards per attempt, 23rd in big-time throw rate, and 12th in adjusted completion rate. Nix should have no problem chopping up the dirty birds’ defensive coverages this week. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback.

Audric Estime (RB)

Last week, Estime led the way for the Denver rushing attack, playing 45% of the snaps with 14 carries and 53 rushing yards. He didn’t see a target in the passing game. Estime handled two of the three backfield red zone rushing attempts last week. He posted a forgettable 2.21 yards after contact per attempt and didn’t force a missed tackle, but it’s a small sample. Overall this season, his 3.07 yards after contact per attempt has been impressive (29 carries). Atlanta is a perfect matchup for Estime to pop off with a big game if Denver can keep the score close because I do worry about Estime’s ability to get game scripted out. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most rushing yards per game, and the sixth-highest success rate to gap runs (Estime 55.2% gap).

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Sutton is the only Denver-receiving threat that has had a consistent role on a weekly basis. That’s why he’s the only Denver pass catcher making the Primer this week. The route shares for the rest of these players have been too volatile to trust weekly. We’ve seen Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele see higher route shares previously, only to have the rug pulled out from under them the next week. With Nix improving, Sutton is now the WR32 in fantasy points per game with top 24 performances in four of his last five games (WR23, WR21, WR6, WR6). Sutton has a 23.2% target share, a 40.8% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Sutton is third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Sutton should stack another solid week on top of his recent sweet box scores this week. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Pitts is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in deep targets among tight ends. Pitts has only two red zone looks over his last five games. Pitts has a 13.7% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 10.8% first-read share. This week, he could be the focal point of the passing attack. Denver has the seventh-highest single-high rate (58.5%). Against single-high, Pitts’ YPRR has dramatically increased to 2.83. Look for Cousins to target him early against a Denver secondary that is middling against tight ends, ranking 18th in receiving yards per game and allowing the 11th-most receiving touchdowns (tied).

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Cousins is the QB17 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. He’s been very hot and cold with some monster games that have helped his season-long stat sheet. Cousins is third in passing yards, eighth in yards per attempt, and 18th in fantasy points per dropback. Cousins is nothing more than a run-of-the-mill QB2 this week. Denver has held passers to the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Williams is a hold if you can, but he’s definitely a must-bench player this week and possibly moving forward. Last week, Williams only played 29% of the snaps with three touches and seven total yards. He handled only one of three possible red zone carries for the running backs. This easily could be Estime’s backfield for the rest of the season.

Drake London (WR)

London is the WR12 in fantasy points per game, ranking second among wide receivers in red zone targets. He has finished as a WR2 or higher in 60% of his games this season. London has a 24.2% target share, a 32.9% air-yard share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. The reason London makes the Primer this week is because of…yep, you guessed it. Patrick Surtain. Surtain will be glued to London throughout the entire game. We saw against the Steelers that London didn’t handle shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. well, and I worry this could be a similar situation. Surtain has followed top receivers on at least 60.4% of their routes five times this season. None of those receivers finished with more than 30 receiving yards in his primary coverage (zero touchdowns). In many cases, you’re playing London this week, but don’t expect a big game, and he likely really needs a touchdown to pay off this week. Denver has kept receivers in check with the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game allowed.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is the WR18 in fantasy points per game, with five games this season as a WR2 or higher in weekly scoring. Mooney has a 22.4% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share, 2.12 YPRR, and a 30.2% first-read share. Mooney ranks tenth in deep targets among wide receivers and has four red zone targets in his last six games. Denver has the seventh-highest single-high rate (58.5%). Against single high, Mooney’s YPRR has dipped to 1.50 while his market share numbers have stayed consistent. I expect the Falcons to lean heavily on the run and possibly Kyle Pitts this week. Denver has kept receivers in check with the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game allowed.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -6.5, O/U 48.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle ranks third in neutral pace and neutral passing rate. San Francisco has been the inverse with the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• Kenneth Walker III
• DK Metcalf
• Deebo Samuel Sr.
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy has been amazing this season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks second in yards per attempt and passing yards per game, seventh in CPOE, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, Seattle has remained a dream matchup for fantasy quarterbacks as they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing. Purdy should smash again in Week 11.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Last week, Jennings had a wonderful week in his return to the lineup as the WR15 for the week. He gobbled up a 30.6% target share, a 33.9% air-yard share, and a 38.5% first-read share, and he finished with seven grabs and 93 receiving yards. Jennings has seven red zone and deep targets in his seven games played. He ripped the Buccaneers singe-high coverage last week (78% of snaps), and he’s primed to do the same to Seattle this week. Since Week 2, Seattle has had the tenth-highest rate of single-high (56.5%). Jennings is second on the team with a 24% TPRR against single high while also logging 2.16 YPRR and a 23.8% first-read share. Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Since Week 7, Pearsall has had a 16.1% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share. Last week, he finished as the WR13 in weekly scoring, which was the first time he’s cracked the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring. Among 131 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 60th in separation and 61st in route win rate as a perimeter wide receiver. Since Week 2, Seattle has had the tenth-highest rate of single-high (56.5%). Since Week 7 against single-high, Pearsall has had a 16% TPRR and 1.93 YPRR (both fourth on the team). Pearsall will be fourth or fifth in the target pecking order this week, but considering the matchup, he could still walk away with a nice week. Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith is the QB11 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 performances this season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, 14th in hero throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game. The last time he faced this pass defense, Smith tossed for 312 yards, but he finished with only 6.0 yards per attempt and a 1:2 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio as the QB19 for the week. He’ll need all the volume he can get this week to hopefully walk away with a better game in Week 11. The 49ers will test him early and often. San Francisco has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the third-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njigba is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with six deep targets and eight red zone targets (13th among wide receivers) this season. Smith-Njigba has a 21.3% target share, 1.70 YPRR, and a 23.7% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized single-high with 55.5% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Smith-Njigba has seen his target share drop to 19.4% and his YPRR decrease to 1.25. Not good, Bob. Not good at all. On top of the efficiency drops for Smith-Njigba against this coverage type, the 49ers pass defense has been tough against slot receivers, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest passer rating when targeted.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett is the WR43 in fantasy points per game with three games this season as a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen his usage in high-leverage situations increase recently, with seven red zone targets across his last six games. Overall, he has a 13.7% target share, a 21.1% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 17.8% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized single-high with 55.5% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Lockett has had a 14.4% target share, 1.84 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Lockett should be Metcalf’s running mate this week as Seattle’s primary pass-game weapons to combat the 49ers’ single-high coverage. It’s fair to question how much success Lockett will have, though, against a secondary that has held perimeter wide receivers to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest receiving yards per game.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant missed practice on Wednesday (groin). He likely doesn’t play in Week 11. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -2, O/U 46
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Over the last two weeks, Kansas City has had the 11th-slowest neutral pace while ranking seventh-best in neutral passing rate. In the same timeframe, Buffalo has been 12th in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Is it time to party? I legitimately don’t know how to act while typing up that Mahomes has been a QB1 in back-to-back weeks (QB4, QB11) since Week 6-7 last year. Over the last two weeks, Mahomes has ranked sixth in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, and tenth in passer rating. The Bills pass defense has quietly taken a step back recently. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards, the third-highest CPOE, and the 14th-most passing touchdowns. Mahomes is quietly set up for a nice game this week.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Since Week 5, Hunt has been the RB5 in fantasy points per game, averaging 24.6 touches and 96 total yards. He’s had at least 20 touches in each of his last five games. Volume remains the primary driver of Hunt’s success as he ranks 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt and yards per carry to gap runs (since Week 8, Hunt has a 53.2% gap run rate).

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Since Week 9, Hopkins has had a 60% route share, a 16.3% target share, a 23.8% air-yard share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. In those two games, he led the team with three end-zone targets. This is an incredibly small sample that has been pulled down with last week’s matchup with Patrick Surtain, as the team sacrificed Hopkins to Surtain by playing him on the perimeter for 65.5% of his routes. Hopkins should have a bounceback game this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Week 7, Shakir has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game, leading the Bills passing attack with a 22.4% target share, 2.48 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. 37.5% of his target volume has been designed during this span. Kansas City has the third-highest rate of two high this season (61.3%). Since Week 7, against two high, Shakir’s target share has exploded to 30%, and his first read share has been an insane 40.5%. Everything is set up for Shakir to crush this week. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-highest receiving yards per game and the second-highest fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Worthy remains in the Demarcus Robinson/Marquez Valdes-Scantling role. Over the last two weeks, he has drawn only a 7% target share (19.0 aDOT), with 33.3% of his target volume being downfield shots. This makes Worthy extremely volatile moving forward, but he could take one of those deep targets to the house this week. Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest passer rating and the highest completion rate in the NFL to deep passing.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper has been inactive for the last two weeks due to a wrist issue. He opened this week with another limited practice, which has been the routine, so we can’t say for certain that he’s any closer to playing this week than previously. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid opened this week with a DNP (knee). I’ll update his status on Friday, but I’m projecting that he will sit this week.

Dawson Knox (TE)

I’ll update his status on Friday. His fantasy value this week is dependent upon Dalton Kincaid missing Week 11. If Kincaid is out, it could be wheels up for Knox against a pass defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per reception, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL