The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -13.5, O/U 47
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Detroit has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week, with Mac Jones under center, Jacksonville was third in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jared Goff
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery is the RB14 in fantasy, ranking 21st in carries, ninth in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.6 touches and 78.4 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have no issues churning out yards this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne should operate as the Jaguars’ workhorse back in Week 11 with Tank Bigsby out. Last week, Etienne played 68% of the snaps with 12 touches and an underwhelming 43 total yards. Make no mistake about it, this won’t be a pretty offense with Mac Jones at the helm, but Etienne should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 touches this week. That type of volume puts him in the RB2/3 conversation. Among 50 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the 13th-highest success rate to gap runs (Etienne 61.4% gap). If Dougie P is smart, he’ll lean on Etienne and the ground game this week.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams had a quiet return to the lineup last week with three receptions and 53 scoreless receiving yards (WR41). Overall, Williams is the WR34 in fantasy points per game and has eight deep targets in seven games played, but he hasn’t seen a red-zone look since Week 2. Williams has a 16.8% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has utilized two high at the second-highest rate in the NFL (63.5%). Against two-high, Williams has ranked second on the team in TPRR (25%) and YPRR (2.07) while seeing a 31.6% first-read share. Williams could pop off with a big game this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Evan Engram (TE)

In the two games since Christian Kirk has been out, Engram has led the team in slot routes (44.2% slot). Last week, he led the team with a 36.4% target share and a 31.13% first-read share. He finished with eight targets, six receptions, and 40 scoreless receiving yards as the TE10 for the week. Engram is in a great spot this week. Slot receivers have destroyed Detroit. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Mac Jones (QB)

Ah, Cooper Rush of the AFC. Woof. What a performance last week. Jones finished with 111 passing yards, 5.0 yards per attempt, and a 0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio as the QB25 for the week. I have zero interest in playing Jones against a pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. No, thank you.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Bigsby has been ruled out for Week 11 (ankle).

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Last week, with Mac Jones at the helm, Thomas Jr. had a 13.6% target share, 0.55 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. Thomas Jr. had 12 scoreless receiving yards as he finished as the WR75 for the week. That was tough to type. This entire offense (much like DAL) has been capsized by pitiful quarterback play, and I don’t think it looks much (if any) better this week. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Thomas this week.

Parker Washington (WR)

Washington is droppable. Last week, he didn’t draw a target while managing a 51.9% route share. Evan Engram is the team’s preferred slot option in the passing attack.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

LaPorta has been ruled out for Week 11 (shoulder).

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

• PK, O/U 43.5
• Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Jameis Winston as the starter, Cleveland has had the 14th-slowest neutral pace while ranking third in neutral passing rate.
• With Derek Carr back, New Orleans has ranked tenth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara
• David Njoku

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jameis Winston (QB)

In Winston’s two starts, he has finished as the QB10 and QB22 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 26th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 18th in CPOE, and 28th in highly accurate throw rate. Winston’s numbers look like a backup quarterback that has been thrust into a starting role. Winston should have a nice revenge game against the Saints this week, though. Since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-highest CPOE.

Derek Carr (QB)

Since his return to the huddle in Week 9, Carr has weekly finishes as the QB20 and QB6 in fantasy. Over the last two weeks, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and 19th in CPOE. Overall, this season, Carr has been pushing the ball downfield a ton with the sixth-highest deep ball rate. That could help him this week. Cleveland hasn’t been a pass defense to fear this season, allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, and ranking 21st in CPOE. The Browns have been burnt by deep passing, allowing the fifth-highest passing yards and the seventh-highest passer rating to deep passing. Carr could return strong QB2 numbers in Week 11.

Nick Chubb (RB)

In Chubb’s three games played, he has averaged a 43% snap rate with 14.7 touches and 39.7 total yards. He’s only had a 43% snap rate in the red zone as well. He still looks like a player coming back from a major injury, with a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.90 yards after contact per attempt. He has a nice matchup this week to hopefully improve these numbers. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-highest explosive run rate.

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Since Week 7, Tillman has had a 22.3% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 27.2% first-read share. He has averaged 85 receiving yards per game with weekly fantasy finishes as the WR10, WR3, and WR12. In those three games, Tillman has had four red zone targets. He’s been nothing short of awesome. We’ll see if he can keep it going this week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

In Jameis Winston‘s two starts, Jeudy has finished WR37 and WR25 in weekly fantasy scoring. In those games, he drew a 21.8% target share, 27.4% air-yard share, and 23.9% first-read share, producing 76 receiving yards per game and 1.67 yards per route run. In this small sample, Jeudy has two end-zone targets. Jeudy is a decent flex play. Since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Elijah Moore (WR)

Since Jameis Winston assumed the starting QB role for the Browns, Moore has had a 23% target share, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 23.9% first-read share, with one top-24 wide receiver finish (WR22). Moore has one red zone target in his last two games. Moore should be an integral part of the passing attack this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)

Valdes-Scantling is the only New Orleans wide receiver that makes the Primer this week. He is the only Saints’ wide receiver who had at least a 50% route share last week. Last week, Valdes-Scantling had only a 59% route share, a 12% target share (30.7 aDOT), and an 18.8% first-read share. Valdes-Scantling converted his three targets into big plays. Threading a low-volume needle like that is tough weekly, but he might be able to do it again in Week 11. The Browns have been burnt by deep passing, allowing the fifth-highest passing yards and the seventh-highest passer rating to deep passing. Cleveland has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Since Week 8, Hill has been the TE16 in fantasy points per game. He has played 40-44% of snaps weekly, averaging seven opportunities and 50.4 total yards. He has had a 45% route share, an 11.1% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 14.7% first-read share. Hill is a weekly dice roll that could pay off handsomely if the touchdown equity rolls in his direction.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

• N/A

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

• MIN -6, O/U 39.5
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6, Minnesota has moved to a more run-heavy approach, which I’m guessing is an attempt to hide Sam Darnold. Over their last four games, they have had the third-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week, with Will Levis back, Tennessee had the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Since Week 5, Darnold has only had one QB1 outing. Since Week 5, among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold has ranked 11th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, 18th in catchable target rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. It looks like the Kevin O’Connell magic has started to wear off, and we’re seeing the old Sammy Darnold emerge. Darnold could have a mild resurgence this week against an ailing Tennessee pass defense. Since Week 5, they have allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Will Levis (QB)

Don’t be fooled by Levis’s Week 10 performance as the QB9 in fantasy. The real “Will Levis” is the player that, in his five games prior to Week 10, hadn’t finished higher than QB18 in any week. There’s no way I would have any confidence in playing Levis against the Vikings. Brian Flores will have a field day confusing Levis with coverages this week. Since Week 5, Minnesota has shackled quarterbacks with the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Oh, Minnesota ranks first in pressure and blitz rate this season. Good luck, Levis. You’re going to need it.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones got banged up last week with a rib issue. He practiced in a limited fashion all week until upgrading to a full practice on Friday. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 11. Jones is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in snap share, 15th in opportunity share, and 11th in red zone touches. Jones has averaged 18.9 touches and 101.3 total yards per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones will likely be bottled up this week against a tough Tennessee run defense. Since Week 5, Tennessee has had the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game allowed.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Tennessee has been talking about lightening Pollard’s workload, which we saw happen last week. Pollard played 53% of the snaps with 13 touches and 63 total yards. He split the red zone snaps 50/50 with Tyjae Spears. As long as Spears stays healthy, this could be the backfield split we see from now on, which would be a huge hit in Pollard’s recent volume RB2 status (RB21 in fantasy points per game). Among 50 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 18th in explosive run rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could disappoint this week. Since Week 5, Minnesota has given up the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Last week, Spears returned after a three-game absence to play 46% of the snaps with ten touches and 51 total yards. He played 49% of the passing down snaps and split the red zone snaps 50/50 with Tony Pollard. Spears is a must-sit this week with a horrible rushing matchup incoming. Since Week 5, Minnesota has given up the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Last week, with Levis back, Ridley had a 39.1% target share, a 78.5% air-yard share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 40.9% first-read share. No other receiver in this passing offense saw more than three targets, which is why you don’t see any other Titans receivers in the Primer. Levis hasn’t proven consistently that he can support one fantasy receiver, much less multiple options. If Ridley continues with this type of stranglehold on volume, no other Tennessee receiver will have week-to-week value. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (69.8%). Against two-high, Ridley has only a 19% TPRR and 1.40 YPRR. The coverage matchup and Levis’s likely struggles this week lower the ceiling and floor for Ridley in Week 11. Since Week 5, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-lowest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with only two red zone targets over his last six games played. The touchdown hot streak that fueled his rookie season has dried up, and his fantasy value has tanked because of his inability to draw a high target share. Addison has a 15.3% target share, a 26.2% air-yard share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 19.9% first-read share. Since Week 7, Tennessee has had the 11th-highest single-high rate (57.1%). Against single-high, Addison has seen his target share increase to 17.5% and his first-read share bump to 23.5% while his YPRR has tipped to 1.45. Addison is a decent flex this week against a Titans’ secondary that, since Week 7, has ranked 15th in fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Last week, Hockenson saw his route share increase to 67% while drawing a 23.7% target share and 22.2% first-read share. He also produced 72 receiving yards (2.57 YPRR) as the TE5 for the week. Hockenson also had two red zone targets. Hockenson should see a healthy dose of volume this week, which likely puts him somewhere in the low-end TE1 tier, but I wouldn’t expect a smash performance. Tennessee has held tight ends to the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game and the sixth-lowest yards per reception.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• BAL -3, O/U 48.5
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6, Baltimore has ranked 18th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
• With Russell Wilson as the starter, Pittsburgh has ranked 12th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson has finished as a QB1 in two of his three starts this season (QB3, QB9). Wilson has been walking a fine tightrope. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he is third in yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback, but his accuracy metrics have been abysmal. Among the same sample group, he is 35th in CPOE and 40th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. None of those numbers are great, but Wilson also has the third-highest aDOT and the second-highest deep ball rate, so the degree of difficulty with many of his throws has been high. Wilson should be able to thread the needle for another week against a struggling Baltimore secondary. The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the second-most deep passing yards and deep passing touchdowns.

George Pickens (WR)

With Russell Wilson starting, Pickens has been the WR9 in fantasy points per game and is tied for the lead in end zone targets with Justin Jefferson. Overall, Pickens has a 25.9% target share, a 44.6% air-yard share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 34.4% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore has moved back towards heavy two-high usage with the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (61.8%). Against two high, Pickens has seen his target share drop to 18.6%, his YPRR decrease to 2.08, and his first-read share sit at 24.6%. These are still solid numbers, but Pickens’ bread and butter has been destroying single high this season. Pickens will still be leading the way for the Steelers’ passing attack and the main weapon Wilson will look for when going deep (he leads the team in deep targets). Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers was on a ridiculous heater that had to cool off at some time. Last week, he had a down game, but prior to Week 10, he had at least 111 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Flowers is still the WR19 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in deep targets among wide receivers. He has only two red zone targets in his last eight games. Flowers has a 24.9% target share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 29.8% first-read share. The Steelers have the highest single high rate in the NFL (71%). Flowers has destroyed single high with a 30.3% target share, 3.36 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Flowers will be tested this week as he might get shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr.. Porter Jr. has shadowed on at least 65.2% of routes five times this season, holding the receiver in his primary coverage below 50 receiving yards four times. Baltimore moved Flowers to the slot for 53% of his routes against Denver so he could avoid Patrick Surtain. Don’t rule out Baltimore taking the same approach this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers overall, but since Week 5, they have given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman is the WR40 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. His role has evolved over the last two weeks as his aDOT has come down. For most of the season, he has operated as Baltimore’s field stretcher (Weeks 1-8: 15.8 aDOT), but over the last two weeks, his aDOT has dropped to 10.5, and he has seen a 23.1% target share with 1.72 YPRR and a 23.3 For % first-read share. The Ravens are finally utilizing him in a full spectrum role, which, to be honest, should have been the approach the entire season. Pittsburgh has been a tough matchup for perimeter wide receivers for most of the season, but since Week 5, they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Bateman’s day could be ruined if Baltimore moves Flowers inside and leaves Bateman on the perimeter to contend with Joey Porter Jr. in shadow coverage. Porter Jr. has shadowed on at least 65.2% of routes five times this season, holding the receiver in his primary coverage below 50 receiving yards four times.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Last week, Andrews had a season-high 86.1% route share. That’s huge, as Andrews hasn’t sniffed north of 70% all year. This might be a one-off, with Isaiah Likely out last week, but it could also be a sign of things to come for Andrews. Since Week 5, Andrews has had a 15% target share with 2.41 YPRR and a 15.1% first read share. Andrews has three end-zone targets and six red-zone targets across his last six games. The Steelers have the highest single high rate in the NFL (71%). Since Week 5, against single high, Andrews has had a 12.2% target share with 2.13 YPRR and a 13.7% first-read share. Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and second-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Andrews could easily save his day with a touchdown this week but don’t expect a monster stat line from him in Week 11.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth has had a disappointing season so far as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. Freiermuth has a 13% target share, 1.35 YPRR, and a 14.6% first-read share. He has managed double-digit fantasy points only twice this season and has surpassed 22 receiving yards in a game only once since Week 5. Freiermuth hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 6. I’m painting a doom-and-gloom tapestry right now, but Freiermuth could have his best game of the season this week. Baltimore has been a wonderful matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the third-most receiving yards and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Week 11 could be MUTH week.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He practiced in full for the rest of the week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 11. Harris is the RB26 this season, ranking 23rd in opportunity share, eighth in carries, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.3 touches and 88.6 total yards per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Harris ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. He needs a touchdown to likely pay off for fantasy this week, with a horrible rushing matchup incoming. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Warren popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a back issue. He didn’t practice on Thursday but managed a limited session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable this week. Warren has averaged 13.5 touches and 77 total yards across the last two games while playing 39-45% of the snaps. With Warren operating at less than full health and a horrible matchup inbound, he’s a flex who is better left on the bench this week. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

Johnson’s playing time will increase the longer he is with the team, but it’s still way too low even to take the risk of playing him this week. Last week, Johnson ran only two routes. I’m not saying he is a must-bench player until “we see it,” but his playing time isn’t anywhere close to the range worth absorbing the risk he possesses for fantasy.

Mike Williams (WR)

Williams is a desperation flex play only this week. He only had a 24% route share (eight routes) last week. Yes, he did take his only target for a 32-yard score, but his playing time isn’t nearly up to snuff for playing him in most formats. The matchup is right for him to possibly pay off with only a handful of targets, though. Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL