Welcome to the stretch run. With each passing week, we are inching closer to the end game: the fantasy football playoffs and, hopefully, all the championship trophies you carry (or fit on the shelves in your office).
I won’t bore you with a long-winded yarn or snap off some cheesy dad joke in this intro. The precious time that you sneak away from work for an impromptu bathroom break to set your lineups with the help of the Primer should be spent doing just that.
Let’s get to it. Welcome to the Week 11 Primer. Enjoy.
WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL
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Fantasy Football Primer
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
- PHI -3.5, O/U 48
- Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Eagles are 18th in neutral pace while leading the way in neutral rushing rate.
- Since Week 5, Washington has led the NFL in neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
Jayden Daniels | QB | QB1 |
Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | RB2/3 |
Austin Ekeler | RB | RB3/4 |
Terry McLaurin | WR | WR1 |
Noah Brown | WR | WR4 |
Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | WR6 |
Luke McCaffrey | WR | WR6 |
Zach Ertz | TE | TE2 |
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB5 |
A.J. Brown | WR | WR1 |
DeVonta Smith | WR | WR2 |
Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
- N/A
Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Robinson Jr. is good to go for Week 11. He had a full practice on Wednesday and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 11. Robinson Jr. is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in red zone touches. Among 50 qualifying backs, Robinson Jr. is 14th in explosive run rate and 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt. He faces a tough test this week against an Eagles run defense that has become an elite unit. Since Week 5, Philly has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Ekeler will work in with Robinson Jr. this week. I’ll keep this short and sweet. This isn’t the week to consider flexing Ekeler. Even if the Commanders are playing catchup, there’s not a lot to like for Ekeler. If his volume is limited, you’d like to see a matchup where he can maximize his touches with efficiency or excel through the air. Neither is a likely outcome this week. Since Week 5, Philly has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Overall, Philly has held backs to the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the tenth-lowest yards per reception.
Smith is the WR23 in fantasy points per game, but he’s had more volatility over the last four games, with Philly really ratcheting up the rushing rate. Since Week 7, Smith had two games where he hasn’t managed to score more than four fantasy points. This isn’t a reflection of his talent, but when the passing volume gets sucked out of an offense, it can make it tougher for players with their week-to-week outlook. Smith also isn’t a great bet to score a touchdown weekly unless he breaks off a big play. He has only one red zone target across his last six games. Since Week 7, Smith has had a 21% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 30.8% first-read share while averaging 46 receiving yards per game. Since Week 6, Washington has had the second-highest single-high rate in the NFL (68.3%). Since Week 7, Smith has had a 16.7% target share, only 1.48 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share (third on the team). Temper your expectations for Smith this week. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 3, Brown has had a 16.4% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 20.3% first-read share. In that seven-game span, he hasn’t drawn an end-zone target. Brown has two WR3 or better weekly finishes this season, with one being the week where he caught the miracle Hail Mary. Brown is a sit this week. Since Week 5, Philly has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Goedert is the TE7 in fantasy points per game. Last week, in his first game back from injury, he was the TE9 for the week, logging a 70% route share with a 13.6% target share, 1.19 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Goedert should flirt with low-end TE1 value this week despite a tough matchup. Washington has held tight ends in check with the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game allowed while sitting at 15th in yards per reception.
Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game this season, with five weekly finishes as a TE1. He has been a red zone target maven from Daniels over the last six games with seven red zone looks. Ertz has a 17.7% target share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 16.6% first-read share. He is also tied for second on the team with four end-zone targets. Philly has shut down tight ends, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Sit Ertz in Week 11.
WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
- GB -5.5, O/U 40.5
- Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 4, Green Bay has had the 12th-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Since Week 7, Chicago has ranked third in neutral pace and 15th in neutral passing rate. With Thomas Brown taking over play-calling duties, I expect the Bears to become even more run-heavy.
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Jordan Love | QB | QB1 |
Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1 |
Jayden Reed | WR | WR2/3 |
Romeo Doubs | WR | WR3/4 |
Christian Watson | WR | WR4/5 |
Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR5 |
Tucker Kraft | TE | TE1 |
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
Caleb Williams | QB | QB2 |
D’Andre Swift | RB | RB2 |
Roschon Johnson | RB | RB4 |
DJ Moore | WR | WR3/4 |
Keenan Allen | WR | WR3/4 |
Rome Odunze | WR | WR4 |
Cole Kmet | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Love is the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He has been a QB1 in weekly scoring in four of his seven games this season and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five games. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is 11th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, Chicago has been a polarizing pass defense that has held quarterbacks to the third-fewest passing touchdowns and the ninth-lowest passer rating while also giving up the 14th-highest yards per attempt and the 11th-highest CPOE. Love has overcome tough matchups this season to post QB1 outings (MIN, HOU), so I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again against a division rival.
Jacobs is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in snap share, 22nd in opportunity share, and 18th in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.7 touches and 98.9 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs should run wild this week. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the highest yards before contact per attempt. During that span, Chicago has allowed top-five success rates to zone and gap runs.
Swift has been a steady RB2 for most of this season. He is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, tenth in opportunity share, and 13th in weighted opportunities. Since Week 4, he has averaged 20.6 touches and 113.4 total yards. He is 23rd in explosive run rate and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Swift should be able to post another solid stat line this week against the Packers. Since Week 5, Green Bay has ranked 17th in rushing yards per game, 15th in explosive run rate, and given up the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
The Packers’ wide receiver coverage roulette wheel has spun all year long. Doubs has had some big games against single high heavier teams, and he could do so again this week. Overall, Doubs is the WR42 in fantasy points per game with three weekly finishes as a WR3 or better. He has seen four red zone targets across his last five games. Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (62.1%). Against single-high, leads the team with a 17.3% target share, ranks second in YPRR (2.40), and leads the team with a 25.3% first-read share. The Bears are a tough matchup for wide receivers, but Doubs should be the wide receiver that Love leans on this week. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Allen is the WR57 in fantasy and, at this point, likely on plenty of waiver wires. Allen has four red zone targets across his last five games. He has finished higher than WR30 in weekly scoring only once this season. It’s been a rough season, no doubt. It’s tough to lay that at Allen’s feet because he doesn’t look like he’s lost much (if anything). Among 90 qualifying wide receivers, Allen is 20th in separation. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate (51.6%). Against two high, ranks second on the team with a 19% TPRR and first in first-read share (30%). Allen should lead the way for the Bears’ passing attack this week. Since Week 5, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Kraft has been balling this year as the TE8 in fantasy points per game. Among tight ends, he is tenth in receiving yards, second in yards after the catch, and sixth in red zone targets. He has a 12.5% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and an 11.3% first-read share. Chicago is 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends while also giving up the tenth-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Kmet is the TE13 in fantasy, ranking tenth in deep targets while seeing five red zone targets this season. Unfortunately, he has only one red zone target across his last six games. Kmet has an 11.6% target share, 1.49 YPRR, and an 11.2% first-read share. Kmet could flirt with TE1 value this week against a defense that has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Williams has reached a point where it’s not insane to consider dropping him in redraft. Since Week 8, he hasn’t finished higher than QB27 in weekly scoring. Across his last three games, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating, 35th in CPOE, and has the eighth-highest off-target rate. In this stretch, he hasn’t thrown for a single touchdown. He faces a Green Bay pass defense that has come alive. Since Week 5, they have held quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the fourth-lowest CPOE allowed.
Reed has had an up-and-down season, but he is still the WR16 in fantasy points per game. Across his last five games, Reed only has two red zone targets. Reed has a 16.8% target share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. He has only one end-zone target this season. Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (62.1%). Against single-high, Reed ranks third on the team in TPRR (20%), first in YPRR (3.18), and second in first-read share (minimum 25 routes). Since Week 5, Chicago has held slot receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game.
Watson is the WR77 in fantasy points per game. To say it has been a letdown season would be an understatement. Watson has only one game this season where he has finished as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring (WR20). Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (62.1%). Against single-high, Watson ranks fourth on the team with a 14.2% target share, fifth in YPRR (1.40), and third in first-read share (18.4%). Watson is an easy sit this week, as Doubs and Reed will likely lead the way for the passing attack. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
I don’t blame Moore for being frustrated this season as the WR39 in fantasy. He ranks 11th among wide receivers in deep targets and red zone targets, and all of this high-leverage usage has done very little to help him. Caleb Williams has been one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the NFL. Moore hasn’t finished higher than WR48 in weekly scoring since Week 5. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate (51.6%). Against two high, Moore leads the team with a 21% TPRR while ranking second with a 29% first-read share. He will line up against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Moore this week if possible.
Since the bye, Odunze has had a 20% target share, a 36.1% air-yard share (leads the team), 1.65 YPRR, and a 26% first-read share. Odunze has posted two top-24 wide receiver finishes this season (WR7, WR22). Sadly, he has only one red zone look over his last four games. This isn’t a great coverage matchup for Odunze. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate (51.6%). Against two high, Odunze has ranked third on the team with a 17% TPRR and 19.4% first-read share. He has produced only 1.33 YPRR against two high. Sit Odunze. He will line up against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
- LAR -4.5, O/U 43.5
- Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 6, New England has ranked 15th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate. During the same span, the Rams have been seventh in neutral pace and 16th in neutral rushing rate.
Rams Players & Weekly Rankings
Matthew Stafford | QB | QB1/2 |
Kyren Williams | RB | RB1 |
Blake Corum | RB | RB4 |
Puka Nacua | WR | WR1 |
Cooper Kupp | WR | WR1/2 |
Demarcus Robinson | WR | WR3/4 |
Tutu Atwell | WR | WR5 |
Davis Allen | TE | TE2 |
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
Drake Maye | QB | QB1/2 |
Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | RB2 |
JaMycal Hasty | RB | RB4 |
Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR4 |
DeMario Douglas | WR | WR4 |
K.J. Osborn | WR | WR6 |
Hunter Henry | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Stafford is the QB27 in fantasy with only one QB1 performance this season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 21st in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, 25th in CPOE, and 33rd in fantasy points per dropback. Sadly, Stafford only has two games this season where he has tossed for multiple touchdowns. He could add another notch in that belt this week, though. New England has been a pass defense to exploit this season if you can stay away from Christian Gonzalez. They have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, and the fifth-highest EPA per dropback. Don’t be surprised if Stafford is a low-end QB1 this week.
Maye has finished as a QB1 in half of his starts this season. In his four full starts, he has averaged five carries and 43.8 rushing yards. The rushing equity for Maye has helped raise his weekly floor and ceiling. As a passer, Maye has been up and down this season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 28th in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. Maye could be a QB1 again this week if the Patriots can keep the pocket clean, which will be easier said than done. The Rams have an exploitable pass defense, allowing the eighth-highest passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest yards per attempt. The fly in the ointment is that they are also seventh in pressure rate and second in quarterback hurry rate. Maye has seen the eighth-highest pressure rate this season (minimum 100 dropbacks).
Stevenson is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in snap share, 18th in weighted opportunities, and 13th in red zone touches. Since Week 8, he has played at least 70% of the snaps weekly, averaging 19.7 touches and 65.3 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson faces a Rams run defense that has really stepped up their game recently. Since Week 5, the Rams have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
In Maye’s four full starts, Boutte has had an 11.8% target share, 1.17 YPRR, and a 15.5% first-read share. In those games, he was the team’s deep threat, with six deep targets (35.3% of his target volume). Boutte could be headed for a big day if he and Maye can sync up on some deep targets. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards and the fourth-highest passer rating to deep passing. Los Angeles has also struggled against boundary receivers. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Robinson had to cool off sometime after scorching the earth in his previous two games with a pair of two-touchdown outings as the WR18 and WR5 for those weeks. Since Week 8, he has had a 13.7% target share, 1.58 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has led the team with five end-zone targets. Robinson is a decent flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. If Puka Nacua gets shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, Robinson could see a target share bump in Week 11.
In Maye’s four full starts, Henry has had a 16.2% target share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 20.2% first-read share. He has finished as a TE1 in three of those four games and has seen four red zone targets. The Rams have been eaten alive by tight ends all year. They have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest yards per reception to the position. Henry could be a TE1 yet again this week.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Douglas saw his route share drop to 58.6% last week as Alex Van Pelt continues to misuse personnel. He still had a 20% target share, 2.94 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share, but the drop in playing time was out of the blue for Douglas. It’s been tough to trust the Patriots’ skill players all year, as their usage has been head-scratching outside of Rhamondre Stevenson. Sit Douglas this week with his usage up in the air and facing a tough matchup. The Rams have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season.
Last week, Allen took over as the Rams’ primary tight end with an 84% route share, a 13% target share, 0.81 YPRR, and an 8.7% first-read share. Allen will have streamable weeks, but this likely isn’t one of them. The Patriots are 16th in receiving yards, and fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Raiders have had the fourth-slowest pace while ranking ninth in neutral passing rate.
- Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Miami has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 17th in neutral passing rate.
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
Gardner Minshew II | QB | QB2 |
Alexander Mattison | RB | RB3 |
Zamir White | RB | RB5 |
Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR3 |
Tre Tucker | WR | WR6 |
Brock Bowers | TE | TE1 |
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
Tua Tagovailoa | QB | QB2 |
De’Von Achane | RB | RB1 |
Jaylen Wright | RB | RB4 |
Raheem Mostert | RB | RB4 |
Tyreek Hill | WR | WR2 |
Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR3 |
Jonnu Smith | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Tagovailoa hasn’t finished higher than QB9 in any game this season. He has only been a QB1 once this season (Week 1). Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt and CPOE, 14th in passer rating, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. He wasn’t able to capitalize in a plus matchup against the Rams’ secondary last week, so I’m doubtful he can do it this week. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, tenth-highest passer rating, tenth-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest CPOE.
Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE24 in fantasy points per game. Smith has had a 62.4% route share, a 17% target share, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 20% first-read share. He has two red-zone targets in those three games. Smith should flirt with TE1 value this week against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Minshew will draw the start this week, but there’s no guarantee that he will finish the game if he stinks it up early. Stay away from any Raiders quarterback until further notice. Even in Superflex, you can find a skill position player that can offer more upside than any passer for the Raiders. Minshew hasn’t scored more than 15 fantasy points in any game this season. Since Week 4, he has managed double-digit fantasy points only once. Miami has also been a tough pass defense, allowing the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Mattison had been the workhorse for the team until Week 9, when he played only 39% of the snaps and had nine touches and 36 total yards. The reduction in snaps is mainly due to the blowout nature of that game. The Raiders entered the fourth quarter down 31-10. In the first three-quarters of that game, Mattison played 59% of the snaps while splitting the red zone snaps with Zamir White 50/50. I expect Mattison to resume his previous workload in Week 11. In Weeks 5-8, Mattison played at least 57% of the snaps weekly while averaging 20.3 touches and 73.3 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. Mattison is fighting an uphill battle this week against a run defense that has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Mattison 64.1% zone).
Ok, prepare yourself for this. Hill is the WR38 in fantasy points per game this season. He hasn’t finished as a WR1 in weekly fantasy scoring since Week 1. I know there’s a lot of context there that can be added. Since Week 8, even with Tagovailoa back, Hill has been the WR34 in fantasy points per game. In his four full games played with Tagovailoa this season, Hill has had a 22.1% target share, 2.66 YPRR, 74.5 receiving yards per game, and a 28% first-read share. Last week, with Hill playing at less than 100%, he had only a 14.3% target share, 0.59 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. Hill still has the same ceiling weekly with his speed that he has always had, but the weekly floor has dropped for him, and the chances that he hits that ceiling weekly have been diminished. Hill has four red zone targets in his four full games, with Tagovailoa tossing him the ball. The Raiders have been solid against perimeter wide receivers, holding them to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.
In his four full games with Tagovailoa under center, Waddle has only seen a 14.5% target share and a 17.2% first read share while producing 51.8 receiving yards per game and 2.01 YPRR. Outside of Week 1, Waddle hasn’t surpassed 8.6 fantasy points or 57 receiving yards in any game. The same issues that plagued Waddle last year have followed him into 2024. His talent and per-route efficiency is undeniable, but Miami isn’t throwing him the ball. Even last week, with Hill clearly not 100%, Waddle only had a 21.4% target share and 23.5% first-read share. While both of those figures led the team last week, they should have been incredibly higher especially considering how hot Waddle started the game, but Miami seems reluctant to ever force feed Waddle the ball. I don’t understand it because they will happily do so for Hill, but Waddle doesn’t get the same treatment when all signs point to it making sense and being the likely optimal approach. Waddle remains a volatile weekly flex. The Raiders have been solid against perimeter wide receivers, holding them to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.
Since Meyers’ return, he has gobbled up the volume with a 29% target share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 36.8% first-read share. These are alpha receiver-level numbers. He has averaged 69.5 receiving yards per game as the WR17 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, Meyers has had four red zone targets. Meyers will need all the volume he can get this week in a bad matchup. Miami has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
WAS vs. PHI | GB vs. CHI | LAR vs. NE | LV vs. MIA | JAC vs. DET | CLE vs. NO | MIN vs. TEN | BAL vs. PIT | IND vs. NYJ | ATL vs. DEN | SEA vs. SF | KC vs. BUF | CIN vs. LAC | HOU vs. DAL