The Primer: Week 10 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans

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• DET -3.5, O/U 49
• Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Detroit has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate. During that time frame, Houston has the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Joe Mixon
• Nico Collins
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Collins has been reported to be working out in full, but he hasn’t been designated to return. That could come later this week. I’ll update his status on Friday, but if he gets the green light he has to be in your lineups.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is the WR32 in fantasy points per game with six deep targets and five red zone targets in his six games played. Williams has a 16.9% target share, a 33.1% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Houston has the ninth-highest single-high rate (57.5%). Against single-high, Williams has seen his YPRR and first-read share remain stable at 2.29 and 21.1%. Williams is a solid WR3/flex this week against a Houston secondary that has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and ranks 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.

Tank Dell (WR)

Dell hasn’t had the season that we hoped for to this point, but things have been looking up lately. Dell has two top-24 weekly wide receiver finishes in his last four games (WR16, WR14). Since Week 6, among 99 qualifying wide receivers, Dell ranks tenth in separation and third in route win rate. His superpowers are returning at just the right time. Dell has five red zone targets across his last four games. Since Week 6, he has had a 21.5% target share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, Detroit has ranked sixth in single-high rate (61.5%). Against single-high since Week 6, Dell has had a 24.3% target share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. Detroit ranks 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff has been a fringe QB1 for most of the season (QB14 in fantasy points per game). Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks second in yards per attempt, 16th in CPOE, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, Houston has remained a tough pass defense to face, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. Expect Detroit to lean on their ground game this week.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Stroud has struggled lately. Losing Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs didn’t help, but his offensive line has also been porous. Since Week 7, he has faced the highest pressure rate in the NFL (54%) with the eighth fastest time to pressure. Stroud hasn’t finished higher than QB14 since Week 4. If he can get Nico Collins back this week, it could help. It won’t help his blocking, though, against a Lions’ front that ranks 12th in pressure rate. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks 17th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 26th in CPOE, and eighth in hero throw rate. Stroud is likely headed toward another QB2 week against a pass defense that has allowed the second-lowest passing touchdowns and passer rating, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the 14th-lowest success rate per dropback.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery is the RB14 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in carries, sixth in red zone touches, and sixth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.9 touches and 81.1 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery will have to lean on volume and his touchdown equity this week in a tough matchup. Houston has allowed the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the third-lowest missed tackle rate.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

Last week was the first time since Week 1 that LaPorta has sniffed a 70% route share (73.9%). His route share and target share have been increasing, which means he might finally be fully healthy this season. He is the TE19 in fantasy points per game, with three TE1 weekly finishes over his last five games. LaPorta has six red zone targets this season, but four of them came in Week 8. He has an 11% target share, 1.83 YPRR, and an 11.7% first-read share. Sadly, this isn’t the game to get excited for LaPorta, though, as Houston has allowed the fewest yards per reception and receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Schultz is the TE25 in fantasy points per game, with no weekly finish better than TE19 this season. He is droppable and not even close to being considered for fantasy lineups this week. Detroit has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams

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• LAR -1, O/U 50
• Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Tua Tagovailoa back, Miami has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 18th in neutral passing rate. In the same span, the Rams have ranked 11th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• De’Von Achane
• Tyreek Hill
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Cooper Kupp

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tagovailoa has played better since his return than his QB22 and QB19 weekly finishes suggest. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 21st in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, second in highly accurate throw rate, and had the sixth-lowest off-target rate. He has faced the third-lowest pressure rate, which is likely to change this week. The Rams are second in pressure rate and first in quarterback hurry rate this season. Against pressure, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Tagovailoa is 28th in passing grade, 16th in yards per attempt, and has the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Rams’ secondary has been Swiss cheese, allowing the highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-highest CPOE to quarterbacks. Tagovailoa’s day will be decided by how well he navigates pressure and how often he faces it.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Last week, Mostert played only 14 snaps (23%), but he had 12 touches, which resulted in 88 total yards. That’s about as good of an outing as you can ask for with that limited amount of playing time. Asking Mostert to continue to thread the needle like that weekly is tough, but that doesn’t mean that he might not be able to do it again this week in a good matchup. The Rams have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-highest rushing success rate.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Since Tagovailoa’s return, Waddle has remained silent as the passing attack continues to run through Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane and not Waddle. Over the last two games, Waddle has had a 70% route share, a 12.1% target share, 0.84 YPRR (20.5 receiving yards per game), and a 14.6% first-read share. The Rams offer a nice matchup for Waddle to break out of the slump, but Tagovailoa will have to target him for that to come to fruition. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Waddle is a volatile flex.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 8, Smith has had a 69% route share, an 18.2% target share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share (second on the team). He has two red zone targets in those two games. He’s a fantastic streaming option this week. The Rams have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

With his weapons back, Stafford has finished as the QB5 and the QB13 in fantasy over the last two games. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, over the last two weeks, Stafford ranks first in passing yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt, 14th in hero throw rate, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, Miami has remained a tough pass defense, allowing the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, the ninth-fewest passing yards per game, and the eighth-fewest fantasy points via passing.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Well, Robinson has returned to his touchdown-scoring ways with the rest of the pass-catching crew back. Over the last two games, he has finished as the WR18 and WR5 in weekly scoring with four receiving touchdowns. Since Week 8, he has had a 15.4% target share, a 26.8% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. This week’s matchup likely breaks the hot streak. Miami has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Colby Parkinson (TE)

Since Week 8, Parkinson has faded into the background with only a 2.6% target share and 8.5 receiving yards per game. He is droppable in all formats, with the Rams’ top three wide receivers ruling the top three spots in the target pecking order.

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*