Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -3, O/U 45.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Russell Wilson under center, the Steelers have ranked tenth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 5, Washington has had the eighth-best neutral pace while ranking fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Terry McLaurin

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris is the RB26 in fantasy points per game and he’s been running hot as the RB10, RB17, and RB15 over the last three games. During that span, Harris has averaged 19.7 touches and 118.3 total yards. Harris is fifth in weighted opportunities, eighth in carries, and fourth in red zone touches. Since Week 6, he has played 62% of the rushing play snaps, 43% of the passing down snaps, and 59% of the red zone snaps. Among 47 qualifying rushers, Harris ranks 14th in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should have another banner week against the Commanders. Washington has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-highest rushing success rate.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Since Week 6, Warren has finished as the RB38, RB34, and RB39 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has played only 31% of the rushing play snaps, 53% of the passing down snaps, and only 37% of the red zone snaps. Since Week 6, he has averaged 11.3 touches and 45.3 total yards. In Week 8, Warren finally started to look like a healthy version of himself with a 44% missed tackle rate and 2.44 yards after contact per attempt. Warren is a decent flex play this week against Washington’s run-funnel defense. Washington has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-highest rushing success rate.

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and third in red zone targets among wide receivers. Pickens has a 26.1% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 2.66 YPRR, and a 34.8% first-read share. He has been a market share maven in this passing attack. While it hasn’t equated to consistent fantasy production, he has had spike week upside with three games with WR2 or better finishes. Since Week 6, Washington has had the second-highest rate of single high (65.2%). Against single high, Pickens has seen his numbers grow with a 30.7% target share, 2.96 YPRR, and a 40.2% first-read share. Washington has improved immensely as a pass defense, but they aren’t a brick wall for wide receivers. Since Week 6, they have ranked 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Pickens could still walk away with a big game this week.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth is limping into Week 10 as the TE20 in fantasy. The run-heavy nature of this offense has hurt him immensely. He hasn’t seen a red zone target across his last two games despite having four looks inside the 20-yard line in his last five games. Freiermuth has a 13.3% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. He’ll try to reverse his fortunes this week in a favorable matchup. Freiermuth faces a Washington defense that has allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game and a streamer at the tight end position to stay away from this week. He has a 17.7% target share, 1.60 YPRR, and a 17.5% first read share. He ranks 13th in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. Pittsburgh has shut down tight ends, though. They have allowed the third-lowest yards per reception and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Russell Wilson (QB)

In his two starts this season, Wilson finished as the QB3 and the QB24 in weekly fantasy scoring. We shouldn’t expect much (if any) rushing equity from Wilson this season, as he has averaged only five rushing yards per game so far. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson ranks second in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback, but he also ranks 21st in CPOE and 42nd in highly accurate throw rate. All of this is to say that the reality of his fantasy value lies somewhere in the middle of those two weekly finishes. Wilson has been productive so far, but his per-dropback metrics also raise concerns. Wilson takes on a recently awesome Washington pass defense. Since Week 6, they have switched to more man coverage and single high coverage with fantastic results. During that stretch, Washington allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest passer rating, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the 11th-best pressure rate. Wilson is a run-of-the-mill QB2 this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. was a game-time decision last week (hamstring). He ultimately didn’t play after not looking good in a pregame workout. I’ll update his status on Friday after we have a week of practice reports to digest.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

I’ll update Ekeler’s status on Friday once we know more about Robinson’s health this week. Even if he were to draw the “start” again this week, Ekeler wouldn’t be a smash play. Last week, without Robinson Jr., Washington split up the backfield work with Ekeler only playing 47% of the snaps with 40% of the rushing play snaps. He finished with 14 touches and 83 total yards.

Mike Williams (WR)

Williams could pop off with some big games down the stretch in Pittsburgh, but this isn’t the week to consider plugging him into a fantasy lineup. We aren’t sure if he’ll be active this week, but even if he is, we know that he would only play an extremely limited role as he needs time to learn the offense and digest the playbook.

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -7.5, O/U 38
• Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Tennessee has the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking 11th in neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 7, the Bolts have been fourth-slowest in neutral pace while ranking fourth in neutral passing rate.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert has been heating up as he has gotten healthier. Since Week 7, he has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game with weekly finishes as the QB17, QB9, and QB12. Since Week 7, among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert ranks first in passing yards per game, fourth in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and tenth in CPOE. He faces a Tennessee secondary that displayed some give since Week 5 allowing the seventh-most passing touchdowns, the 12th-highest passer rating, the ninth-highest success rate per dropback, and the 13th-highest EPA per dropback.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is the WR30 in fantasy points per game with four red zone targets over his last five games. Last week, McConkey and Quentin Johnston were the only Chargers receiving options with at least 67% route shares. Overall, McConkey has a 22.7% target share, a 28.4% air-yard share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Since Week 7, Tennessee has the eighth-highest rate of single high (60%). Against single high, McConkey has seen his target share climb to 24.2%, his YPRR bump to 2.96, and his first-read share sits at 30.5%. McConkey should feast this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis seemed close to playing last week as he worked through his shoulder injury. He might be back this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears remained sidelined last week (hamstring). I’ll update his status on Friday, but he could be out another week.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Dobbins is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in snap share, 12th in weighted opportunities, and 12th in carries. He has averaged 18.4 touches and 90.9 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tennessee should slow down Dobbins this week. They have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing success rate, the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yard after contact per attempt.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Pollard didn’t practice at all last week and was feared at one point to miss the game possibly. Apparently, Pollard and the coaching staff didn’t get any of these memos, as Pollard shouldered 31 touches last week with 154 total yards (86% snap share). Pollard is the RB19 ranking sixth in snap share, 11th in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. He has averaged 20.8 touches and 94.7 total yards. Pollard ranks 28th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The Bolts offer a tougher test for him in Week 10. Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-lowest rushing success rate, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 59.9% gap).

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Last week, Johnston had another huge game, logging his third contest with at least 44 receiving yards and a score. Johnston has five deep targets in his six games played and two red zone targets. Since Week 7, Tennessee has the eighth-highest rate of single high (60%). Against single high, Johnston has had a 19.1% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. All of these numbers are awesome. Johnston still has a tough road to walk this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley is the WR48 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh among wide receivers in deep targets. He has only two red zone targets this season, and both of them came against the Lions. Ridley has a 22.5% target share, a 46.8% air-yard share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 29.6% first-read share. The Bolts have the third-highest rate of two high (62.3%). Against two high, Ridley’s target share has dropped to 15.5%, with his YPRR plummeting to 1.15. Ridley is a sit this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• PHI -7, O/U 42
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Dallas ranks fifth and third in neutral pace and passing rates.
• Since Week 7, Philly has had the slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• DeVonta Smith
• CeeDee Lamb

A.J. Brown is dealing with a knee issue. I’ll update his status further on Friday, but it looks like he could suit up this week. If he does, he’s a must-start. CeeDee Lamb is also banged up with a shoulder ailment. He isn’t expected to practice much this week, but he’s tentatively expected to play. I’ll update his outlook as well on Friday.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

• N/A

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Cooper Rush (QB)

Rush will be the starter for Dallas for a few games, with Dak Prescott sidelined. The last time that we saw Rush as Dallas’s starter, he was the QB33 in fantasy points per game. In that season, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush ranked 33rd in yards per attempt and passer rating, 37th in CPOE, and 36th in fantasy points per dropback. As bad as Dallas’s offense has been at times this season, I fear it’s about to get worse. Rush is a basement-level backup. Since Week 3, Philly has fielded an elite pass defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the second-fewest fantasy points via passing.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Last Week, Dowdle took over the backfield, playing 71% of the snaps with 17 touches and 107 total yards as the RB8. Dowdle also posted a strong 8.3% explosive run rate and 3.08 yards after contact per attempt. It was the type of usage that Dowdle should have been seeing all year. This week, he’ll need every snap and touch to put up fantasy points. Since Week 3, the Eagles have been an elite run defense, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Jalen Tolbert (WR)

Tolbert is a flex play to avoid this week. Since Week 3, Philly has ranked eighth in two high rate (50.9%). Against two high, Tolbert has had a 16% target share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Since Week 3, Philly has held perimeter wide receivers to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game. Tolbert likely has another quiet game in Week 10.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among tight ends. Ferguson has an 18% target share with 1.51 YPRR and a 19.8% first-read share. He hasn’t seen an end zone target this season. Since Week 3, Philly has ranked eighth in two high rate (50.9%). Against two high, Ferguson has seen his target share increase to 21.3%, his YPRR jump to 1.90, and his first-read share skyrocket to 25%. Expect Ferguson to be fed volume this week, but it’s questionable what he’ll be able to do with it against a pass defense that has held tight ends to the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-lowest yards per reception.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Last week, Goedert missed his third consecutive game with a hamstring injury. We need to see a full week of practice reports to gauge his outlook for this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -1.5, O/U 46
• New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, New York has ranked 19th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last three games, Arizona has had the sixth-best neutral pace while ranking fifth in neutral rushing rate.

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson
• Davante Adams
• James Conner
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Since the arrival of Davante Adams, Rodgers has been the QB15 in fantasy points per game. In the second half of Week 9’s game against the Texans, Rodgers flashed his old form. Let’s see if he can continue that into Week 10. Since Week 7, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 13th in passer rating, eighth-best in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. He should fill up the box score this week. Arizona has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the 13th-highest passer rating, the tenth-highest CPOE, and the highest success rate per dropback.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray continues with his Jekyll and Hyde approach this season. He is the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t truly speak to his rollercoaster season. Murray has four games this season where he has scored at least 21.2 fantasy points, but he also has five weeks where he has failed to surpass 15.8 fantasy points. It’s been an annoying yo-yo season for Murray. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and 37th in highly accurate throw rate. Murray will have a long day at the office against a Jets’ secondary that has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. He’ll need his rushing equity to save the day in Week 10. Murray ranks eighth in carries, third in rushing yards, and 11th in red zone carries among quarterbacks.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

This hasn’t been the rookie season that we hoped we’d get from Harrison Jr. as the WR38 in fantasy points per game. He has a 21.4% target share, a 42% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 27.8% first-read share. He ranks seventh in deep targets among wide receivers, but he hasn’t drawn a red zone target since Week 4. This looks like another down week for Harrison Jr. against a secondary that has held perimeter wide receivers to the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.

Michael Wilson (WR)

There will be weeks where Wilson is a decent flex play during the rest of this season, but this isn’t one of them. Wilson hasn’t managed more than 31 receiving yards in any game since Week 5. He hasn’t managed more than 7.5 fantasy points in five games this season, including last week when he goose-egged. The Jets have held perimeter wide receivers to the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Since the arrival of Davante Adams, Conklin’s role has disappeared, with a 10.1% target share, 0.61 YPRR, 15.3 receiving yards per game, and an 8.8% first-read share. Playing, Conklin is praying for a touchdown. He does have four red zone targets over his last five games (two touchdowns). Arizona isn’t the defense that I would go touchdown-hunting at the tight end position. They have allowed the 14th-lowest yards per reception and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends (only one score).

CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR