Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Buffalo has ranked 13th in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
- Last week with Joe Flacco back under center, Indy was 13th in neutral pace and passing rate.
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | RB1/2 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB3 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | TBD |
| Keon Coleman | WR | TBD |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR2 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WR5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE1 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | TE2 |
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Flacco | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Sermon | RB | RB4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3/4 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR2/3 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR4 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR6 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Shakir has been Josh Allen‘s go-to weapon. Since Week 7, he has leaned on him heavily with a 21.7% target share, 2.78 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. In this three-game stretch, Shakir has been force-fed, with 39.1% of his targets being the designed variety and Shakir having a 0.7 aDOT. Shakir has also seen his high-leverage usage tick up, with four red zone targets over his last three games. He should eat this week with his heavy yards after the catch role. Indy has allowed the tenth-most yards after the catch and the fourth-most missed tackles. Indy has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
Downs is the WR23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th among wide receivers in red zone targets. He has also seen five deep targets in his seven games played. With Flacco starting, Downs has been the clear WR1 for Indy with a 27.3% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 33.8% first-read share. Downs should have another strong game this week and lead the way for Indy’s aerial attack again this week. Buffalo has been more pliable for slot receivers, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game while ranking 15th in fantasy points per game.
Pierce is a flex desperation dart throw. He has been the team’s low-volume deep-ball specialist, with 50% of his targets coming via deep passing. Buffalo has been tough against perimeter wide receivers (the fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game), but they have given up production to deep passing. The Bills have allowed the 11th-highest CPOE and the 13th-highest passer rating to deep passing. If Joe Flacco can connect with a deep heave to Pierce this week, he could be a decent flex.
Kincaid has been slowly helping his season-long resume as the TE14 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, he has had a 65% route share, a 21.4% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 22.6% first-read share. Buffalo has also been trying to get him going in the red zone with five targets inside the 20-yard line in the last three games. The Colts have a wonderful matchup for the Bills to feature Kincaid this week. They have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
In Flacco’s two starts this season that weren’t against Jacksonville’s replacement-level secondary, he has finished as the QB18 and QB32 in weekly fantasy scoring. He’s been dreadful on a per-dropback basis. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 30th in passing yards per game, and 36th in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. Flacco appears headed for another down week against a secondary that has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points via passing.
Pittman’s role has shriveled up as we’ve moved through the season. This could be related to his health, but the fact remains that he is not drawing a ton of targets, nor is he doing much with the work he has earned. With Joe Flacco as the starter, Pittman has had a 14.5% target share, a 15.7% air-yard share, 0.91 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. He has averaged only 28.7 receiving yards. Pittman is an easy sit this week. Buffalo has held perimeter wide receivers to the fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.
Cooper was sidelined last week with a wrist issue. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but he could be held out again this week.
Coleman is also dealing with a wrist ailment and could be sidelined for a few games. I’ll revisit his outlook on Friday, but I’m not hopeful that he will play in Week 10.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pace and playcalling notes
- Minnesota has the fourth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 11th in neutral passing rate.
- Jacksonville sits at tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB1/2 |
| Cam Akers | RB | RB4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1/2 |
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB3/4 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR2/3 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR3 |
| Gabe Davis | WR | WR6 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Lawrence hasn’t come close to fulfilling the hope that I had for him this season. He has been a middling QB2 most weeks. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. If Lawrence can navigate pressure this week, he could walk away with a surprisingly nice stat line. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and ranked 18th in CPOE. Lawrence can take advantage of this secondary if he can hold up against the Minny pass rush. Minnesota ranks first in blitz rate and second in pressure rate. Among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence is fifth in passing grade, 13th in yards per attempt, and fifth in big-time throw rate against the blitz.
Darnold is having the type of season that should earn him a nice contract this offseason from another NFL team. He is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in fantasy points per dropback, ninth in hero throw rate, first in CPOE, and fifth in yards per attempt. Darnold should shred the Jaguars suspect secondary in Week 10. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns, the highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE to quarterbacks.
Jones is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.9 touches and 101.2 total yards per game. He ranks 14th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and tenth in red zone touches. Among 49 qualifying backs, he is 19th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Jones takes on a Jags run defense that has faltered as of late. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has given up the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the 12th-highest gap success rate (Jones 46% gap).
Thomas Jr. is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in deep targets, and he has seen four red zone targets in his last four games. Thomas Jr. has an 18.4% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, 2.52 YPRR, and a 21.9% first-read share. This isn’t the week I would depend on blow-up numbers from Thomas Jr. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (69.5%). Against two high, Thomas Jr. has seen his target share drop to 15.6% with 2.07 YPRR and a 19.8% first-read share. Thomas Jr. could still have a solid day in Week 10 against a secondary that has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Washington had a 91.4% route share, a 19.4% target share, 1.28 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. His target share and first-read share ranked second on the team to only Evan Engram. Washington has seen one red zone target over the last two games. This is a sneaky spot for him to crush this week. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Washington is firmly in the flex conversation for Week 10.
Addison is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with three games as a WR3 or higher this season in weekly scoring. Addison hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1, so his touchdown equity is limited in the offense. He has earned a 16.4% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, and a 21.1% first-read share with 1.70 YPRR. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has had the third-highest two-high rate (58.4%). Against two high, Addison’s target share and first-read share have dropped to 13.9% and 15.2%, but his YPRR has increased to 1.97. Addison will have to be efficient this week if he isn’t going to see a ton of volume. That could happen against a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Hockenson didn’t have this every down role that Kevin O’Connell foreshadowed as he had a 52.4% route share, an 11.4% target share, 1.29 YPRR (27 receiving yards), and a 4.5% first-read share. It’s tough to count on Hockenson as anything more than a dice roll TE2 this week despite the nice matchup. Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, Bigsby led the way for the Jaguars’ backfield with a 57% snap rate, eight carries, 22 rushing yards, and a 50% snap rate in the red zone. Bigsby split the red zone snaps with D’Ernest Johnson and not Travis Etienne. It’s also notable that Bigsby led the way on passing downs with a 51% snap share. Since Week 7, Bigsby has averaged 18 touches and 75.4 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Bigsby ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby has another tough matchup incoming this week. Minnesota has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, the lowest yards per carry to gap runs, and the second-lowest success rate to gap runs (Bigsby 51.6% gap).
It’s fine to hold Etienne on rosters, but he’s not playable in fantasy right now. Last week, he played only 29% of the snaps with five touches and 30 total yards. Maybe his playing time increases this week, but that’s not set in stone, as Tank Bigsby has earned every snap he’s gotten this year. Etienne is a handcuff only right now.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 6, New England has ranked ninth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate. During the same timeframe, Chicago has been third in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate. This could be a game with a sneaky amount of passing and play volume.
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | RB2 |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | RB4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR4 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR3/4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | WR6 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE1/2 |
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB1/2 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | RB1/2 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| DJ Moore | WR | WR3 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | WR4 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR3 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Williams has been maddeningly inconsistent this season as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, he has had decent to plus matchups through the air, and he hasn’t surpassed a 54% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt, or 9.3 fantasy points in either week. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams has logged the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest CPOE. Williams has another nice matchup this week, but I don’t know if he can take advantage of it. New England has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating, the 12th-most passing yards per game, and the highest CPOE.
Swift is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share and 11th in opportunity share and weighted opportunities. Since Week 4, he has averaged 21.4 touches and 124 total yards per game. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift should get fed this week against a run defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Swift 57.6% gap).
After the Patriots decided to do goofy things earlier this season, Stevenson has returned to getting bell cow usage. Over the last two games, he has played at least 74% of snaps in each game while averaging 19 touches and 59.5 total yards. Stevenson has remained awesome on a per-touch basis. Among 47 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson is in a low-key, great spot this week. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Stevenson 56.1% gap).
Allen has only one game this season where he has finished higher than WR46 in weekly scoring. He hasn’t had more than 41 receiving yards in any game this season. It’s been tough to watch. Allen has a 21.1% target share, a 31.4% air-yard share, 1.11 YPRR, and a 28.2% first-read share. This week, he gets another favorable matchup, but it’s worth wondering if Caleb Williams can deliver catchable targets to him. Only 67.6% of his target volume this season has been catchable. New England has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers this year.
Since the bye, the Bears have made more of an effort to get the ball in Odunze’s hands. Since Week 8, he has had a 20% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share, 2.13 YPRR, and a 22.6% first-read share. Overall, he ranks 15th in deep targets and 20th in red zone looks among wide receivers. He could be headed for a solid week against a secondary that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
In Maye’s three full starts, Henry has had an 18% target share, 1.91 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share (leads the team). In those games, he has averaged 63 receiving yards per game with weekly finishes as the TE7, TE6, and TE10. Henry had five red zone targets in those three games but only one touchdown. Henry should flirt with TE1 production again this week against a secondary that is 16th in fantasy points per game, 13th in receiving yards per game, and tenth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
In Maye’s three full starts this season, he has finished as the QB10, QB7, and QB18. His rushing equity has been on display, as he’s had at least 38 rushing yards in each of those contests. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye is 32nd in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating and CPOE, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, Chicagos’ pass defense has displayed a little pliability, giving up the 14th-highest yards per attempt and 12th-highest CPOE, but make no mistake, they remain a tough pass defense. During the same stretch of games, they have limited quarterbacks to the third-fewest passing touchdowns and the ninth-lowest passer rating. Maye will need all the rushing production this week to finish with a strong fantasy day.
Moore has had a rollercoaster season so far as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 11th in deep target and ninth in red zone targets among wideouts. Caleb Williams‘ struggles have been pronounced this season, which has led to extreme peaks and valleys for the Bears’ talented wide receiver. He has finished as a WR2 or better in weekly scoring twice this season while also finishing outside the top 40 receivers in five games. Moore has a 22.7% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, 1.31 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share. Sadly, only 68.3% of his target volume has been deemed catchable. Moore will see Christian Gonzalez in shadow coverage this week. Gonzalez has been awesome this season, following JJa’MarrChase, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Calvin Ridley on at least 70% of their routes. Only Metcalf and Ridley finished with more than 60 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Keep your expectations for Moore in check this week.
In Douglas’s two full games with Drake Maye starting, he has had a 23% target share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 27.7% first-read share. In those two outings, he finished as the WR8 and WR40 in weekly scoring. Douglas will see his usual allotment of volume with Maye. Still, I question how effective he’ll be with it against a Chicago secondary that has held slot receivers to the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game. Douglas is a low-end flex play this week.
Kmet is the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets among tight ends. He only has one red zone target in his last five games. He has finished as the TE19 or lower in weekly scoring in four of his last five games. Kmet has an 11.4% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 10.7% first-read share. He faces a Patriots defense that ranks 16th in receiving yards per game and 14th in fantasy points per game to tight ends.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Bucs have the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral passing rate.
- San Francisco has the seventh-slowest neutral pace while sitting at fifth in neutral rushing rate.
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Brock Purdy | QB | QB1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | TBD |
| Jordan Mason | RB | TBD |
| Isaac Guerendo | RB | TBD |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | TBD |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | TBD |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR | TBD |
| George Kittle | TE | TE1 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2/3 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB2/3 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB5 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | WR4 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TBD |
| Trey Palmer | WR | WR6 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
McCaffrey and Samuel opened the week with limited practices. If McCaffrey plays, he should be in your lineups. Even a limited version of McCaffrey should see most of the passing down and high-leverage work.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Purdy has been underrated again this season as the QB in fantasy points per game. No matter what metric you look at, he’s been awesome. Among 38 qualifying passers, he ranks third in yards per attempt, fourth in passing yards per game, sixth in CPOE, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy should carve up this Bucs secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-highest CPOE and the third-highest success rate per dropback, passing yards per game, and passing touchdowns.
Since Week 7, the Bucs have been splitting up the backfield work, with White playing 48-62% of the snaps while averaging 11 touches and 71 total yards. He has been the RB9 in fantasy points per game during this stretch. Among 47 qualifying backs, White ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Across these last three games, White has derived much of his value from his passing game role, with an 11.9% target share, 1.98 YPRR, and 41.7 receiving yards per game. San Francisco ranks 15th in missed tackle rate and has allowed the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. From a rushing standpoint, this is an average matchup for White, but he should crush them through the air. The 49ers have also given up the eighth-most receiving yards and the 11th-highest yards per reception to backs.
Since Week 7, Irving has played 35-42% of the snaps weekly while averaging 12.6 touches and 65 total yards as the RB27 in fantasy points per game. Irving has been an integral part of the passing game, too, with a 10.3% target share, 2.54 YPRR, and 34.7 receiving yards per game. Irving has surprised as a rusher this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, Irving ranks third in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. San Francisco ranks 15th in missed tackle rate and has allowed the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. From a rushing standpoint, this is an average matchup for Irving, but he and White should crush them through the air. The 49ers have also given up the eighth-most receiving yards and the 11th-highest yards per reception to backs.
Last week, Shepard had a 56% route share, a 16.1% target share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 21.7% first-read share (second on the team behind Otton). He ran 65% of his routes from the slot. Shepard saw a red zone target last week, which is only his second of the season. He’s a decent flex play this week against a secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Mayfield remains the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Even in a tough matchup last week, he managed 18 fantasy points (QB16). He has played so well all season. It has been amazing to watch. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield ranks 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, 14th in CPOE, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. After saying all that, Mayfield is likely headed toward another week where his actual on-field performance is better than his fantasy production. The 49ers have held passers in check with the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success per dropback. Mayfield is a QB2.
McMillan aggravated a hamstring issue last week and missed the game. His status for Week 10 is up in the air, but I would lean that he will be out again. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
Jennings opened this week with a return to practice (hip). It’s possible he could be back this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
Pearsall’s status this week is tied to Jenning’s availability. If Jennings is out, he’ll be starting in two wide receiver sets and third in the target pecking order. If Jennings plays, he’ll get bumped to fourth and might only see the field in 11 personnel. That’s also a rosy projection that does not include Christian McCaffrey in the hierarchy. I’ll update his outlook on Friday once we know more about Jennings’ status.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
