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Well, we’ve made it. Halloween is in the rearview, and the NFL regular season is over halfway over. Before you know it, Walmart will have Mariah Carey on repeat and Christmas decor flowing out of every crack and crevice.
This is the time of the season when you begin to make those final trades, waiver pickups, and insulations for possible playoff-bound teams and championship-caliber fantasy football rosters. Every win becomes critical. The goal for those teams is to make a deep postseason run, and one thing that can help make that easier is securing a first-round bye in your leagues.
Before you shove the last of the Halloween decorations into the attic, it’s time to get ready for Week 10.
Welcome to the Week 10 Primer. Enjoy.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
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Fantasy Football Primer
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Giants have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.
- With Bryce Young back in the starter’s chair, Carolina has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 13th in neutral rushing rate.
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Daniel Jones (QB)
Jones is a strong QB2 this week. Despite being a below-average passer, his rushing equity and a stellar matchup should prop him up in Week 10. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones ranks 30th in yards per attempt, highly accurate throw rate, and fantasy points per dropback. He is sixth in carries per game and 12th in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. Carolina has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, the third-most fantasy points via passing, and the 12th-highest CPOE.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)
Tracy Jr. has run away with the Giants’ starting job. Since Week 5, he has averaged 18 touches and 97.6 total yards while playing 57-84% of the snaps weekly. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in explosive run rate. The Panthers have been gutted by running backs allowing the most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest success rate to gap runs (Tracy 56.2% gap).
Chuba Hubbard (RB)
Hubbard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in snap share, ninth in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches. Since Week 2, he has averaged 19.2 touches and 94.9 total yards per game. Among 47 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 12th in explosive run rates and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. He should post another solid stat line against the Giants this week. New York has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.
Xavier Legette (WR)
Since Week 4, in his full games played, Legette has had an 18.6% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.21 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four end-zone targets. Since Week 3, the Giants have utilized single high at the third-highest rate (64.7%). Across his last five full games, against single high, Legette has seen his YPRR slightly increase to 1.33. Legette is a solid flex this week against a Giants’ secondary that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Jalen Coker (WR)
Last week was a letdown for Coker hive, no doubt, but please spread the word that we are back up. Last week, we saw Coker’s route share dip to 48.3%. We can theorize this was to help facilitate a Jonathan Mingo trade, or it was due to Coker picking up a shoulder issue. Assuming Coker is fully healthy, the runway is clear for Coker to resume his duties as the team’s primary starting slot receiver. Adam Thielen‘s impending return doesn’t really concern me, considering where he’s at in his career and his target-drawing ability. In Week 8, Coker had a 15.8% target share, a 34.1% air-yard share, 2.60 yards per route run, and a team-leading 22.2% first-read share. Those market shares are closer to what I expect for Coker moving forward, as I’m willing to chuck Week 8 in the garbage. Coker has a favorable matchup in Week 10 against a Giants secondary that has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Theo Johnson (TE)
Johnson enters the streaming radar this week. Over the last two games, he has seen his role increase with a 15.6% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share (second on the team). He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 3, so his chances of scoring a touchdown are slim, but the matchup is wondrous. Carolina has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per reception, and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Bryce Young (QB)
Young will be under center again this week. The time sitting this season doesn’t seem to have helped him much. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 29th in yards per attempt and 28th in passer rating, CPOE, and fantasy points per dropback. He does have a nice matchup this week, which should produce decent QB2 numbers for Young. New York has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE.
Jonathon Brooks (RB)
Brooks should be active this week, but I wouldn’t project more than a handful of snaps for the rookie in his 2024 debut. He’s a definite sit and a low-end stash for the rest of the season.
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)
Robinson has seen his star dim some since Week 7, and he hasn’t managed more than 30 receiving yards in a game. Over the last two games, Theo Johnson‘s role in the offense has increased, which has hurt Robinson. Since Week 8, he has had a 14.1% target share, 0.68 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share (third on the team). Carolina has bled out production to perimeter wide receivers, but they have held slot receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game. Robinson is a low-end flex this week.
Darius Slayton (WR)
Slayton has been ruled out for Week 10 (concussion).
Adam Thielen (WR)
Thielen has been ruled out (hamstring).
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Falcons rank second and seventh in neutral pace and passing rate.
- New Orleans is seventh in neutral pace while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
London has been a limited participant in practice all week. He has been listed as questionable for Week 10. As long as he is active this week, he should be in your fantasy lineups.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Kirk Cousins (QB)
Cousins remains a mid QB2 (QB17 in fantasy points per game), but he’s arguably playing some of the best football of his career. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, 12th in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Cousins should have no issues carving up the New Orleans secondary. Since Week 5, the Saints have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-most passing yards, and the 11th-highest fantasy points via passing. Cousins should enjoy clean pockets this week. Across their last five games, New Orleans is 19th in pressure rate.
Tyler Allgeier (RB)
Allgeier remains more handcuff than a true weekly flex play. Since Week 7, Allgeier has only averaged 27% of the snaps with eight touches and 32 total yards per game. In that span, he has only played 30% of the snaps when the team reaches the red zone. Across his last three games played, he has only seen 25.3% of the rushing work. He could get a bump in work this week if the Falcons crush the Saints and build a huge early lead. That’s the fever dream for anyone with ideas of flexing Allgeier this week. New Orleans has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Mooney continues to make everyone who didn’t draft him (it’s me) or pick him up off waivers silly this season. He is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets, 15th in receptions, and ninth in receiving yards. Mooney has a 21.9% target share, a 38.3% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. He should feast this week. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (54.1%). Against two-high, Mooney has seen his target share jump to 24.6%, with his YPRR ballooning to 3.06 and his first-read share exploding to 32.7%. Mooney should be able to take advantage of a secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.
Ray-Ray McCloud (WR)
McCloud hasn’t had more than three receptions and 30 receiving yards in any game since Week 5, but this could be the week he returns to prominence. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (54.1%). Against two-high, McCloud has had a 14.8% target share, 1.01 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Taysom Hill (TE)
The Hill dice roll paid off last week, as he was the TE5 in weekly fantasy scoring. It’s time to pick up the die again this week and pray for fantasy points. Last week, Hill played 44% of the snaps with five rushing attempts, 19 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown. He also had a 42.4% route share, a 15.6% target share (led the team), 41 receiving yards, and a 20% first-read share (also led the team). Hill has multiple outs for fantasy success this week. Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends while also surrendering the tenth-most rushing yards per game and the ninth-highest explosive run rate.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Derek Carr (QB)
Carr hasn’t scored more than 14 fantasy points since Week 2. This entire offense has regressed so much after their hot start in the first two games of the season. Injuries have played a big role along the way. Carr will be tossing the rock to a depth chart largely composed of backups and journeymen this week. Since Week 3, Carr has been a replacement-level starter, ranking (among 34 qualifying quarterbacks) 25th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 27th in passer rating, and 16th in CPOE. During that stretch, he has been the QB32 in fantasy points per game. Atlanta has been a nice matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, but Carr isn’t playing well, nor does he have the weapons to take advantage of it. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-highest passing touchdowns, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest fantasy points via passing.
Chris Olave (WR)
Olave has been ruled out (concussion).
Mason Tipton (WR)
Since assuming a starting role in Week 7, Tipton has only had a 12.4% target share, 0.54 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share. There’s not a lot here to inspire hope about his Week 10 outlook outside of the fact that it’s a good matchup, and he’s sure to receive opportunities with consideration to the state of the Saints passing game this week. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Kyle Pitts (TE)
Pitts is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in receptions and fifth in receiving yards among tight ends. His down week against the Cowboys with Drake London leaving early is something I didn’t see happening, so Pitts falls from the must-start graces as we need to discuss his outlook against New Orleans. Overall, Pitts has a 13.8% target share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. He has only three end zone targets this season and has drawn only one red zone target since Week 4. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (54.1%). Against two-high, his YPRR has fallen to 0.93, while his target share and first-read share have remained fairly in line with his overall numbers. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, so that helps Pitts case to remain in the starting conversation for Week 10.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pace and playcalling notes
- Denver is 12th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral rushing rate.
- The Chiefs are ninth in neutral pace white, sitting at 14th in neutral rushing rate.
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Last week Hopkins stepped up as the weekly running mate with Travis Kelce. He had a 62% route share, a 20.5% target share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share (second to only Kelce). The biggest usage note for Hopkins that could help him this week is that he ran 45% of his routes from the slot. Last week that helped Zay Flowers avoid Patrick Surtain, and I bet the Chiefs will deploy the same playbook this week. We could also see Hopkins’ slot usage bump even higher if Andy Reid really wants to lean into this advantage. Denver has kept slot receivers in check, giving up the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-lowest PPR points per target to the position, but Hopkins has the talent and quarterback talent to overcome the tough matchup.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB)
Last week Mahomes posted his first QB1 outing since Week 1 and his first game with at least 20 fantasy points of the season. We’ll see if he can keep the momentum train moving in Week 10. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes ranks 18th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 30th in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Denver has been a tough pass defense this season, allowing the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback and yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest CPOE, and the 13th-lowest passer rating.
Bo Nix (QB)
Nix came crashing back to earth last week as the QB17 for the week, and Week 10 isn’t looking any more promising. Overall Nix is the QB12 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weeks this season. Since Week 5, among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 12th in passer rating, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. Kansas City has been a tough challenge for quarterbacks, allowing the tenth-fewest yards per attempt and fantasy points via passing and the 11th-lowest CPOE.
Kareem Hunt (RB)
Since assuming the starting role in Week 5, Hunt has been the RB7 in fantasy, averaging 25.6 touches and 95.1 total yards per game. Hunt ranks eighth in opportunity share and red zone touches while sitting at 18th in carries while he’s just played in five games this season. He has been a volume monster for Kansas City, and his touches have covered up his inefficiency. Among 47 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Despite getting destroyed by Derrick Henry, Denver’s run defense remains a strong unit, allowing the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Hunt 53.2% zone).
Javonte Williams (RB)
Williams’ snap rate has dropped in four consecutive games from 67% to 54% last week. Against Baltimore, Williams had 14 touches and 84 total yards. Williams had a blip of efficiency against the hapless Saints, but he has returned to depths of tackle-breaking. Among 47 qualifying backs, Williams ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. He’ll need all the volume he can get this week against a lockdown Chiefs’ run defense. Kansas City has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the seventh-lowest rushing success rate.
Courtland Sutton (WR)
Sutton is the WR37 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and red zone targets. Sutton has a 22.6% target share, 39.8% air-yard share, 1.83 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. Yep, those are some tasty market share metrics. With Bo Nix‘s play improving, Sutton’s fantasy stock has improved with top-24 wideout finishes in three of his last four games. Kansas City will put a dent in that rising fantasy stock this week. The Chiefs have shut down perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to the position.
Xavier Worthy (WR)
Last week, with DeAndre Hopkins in a full-time role, Worthy retained his every down role with the team (74% route share), but he was relegated to the downfield role only. He had a pitiful 4.5% target share (23.0 aDOT) and a 4% first-read share. Denver has been susceptible to the deep ball allowing the 12th-most passing yards, the 13th-highest CPOE, and the tenth-highest passer rating to targets 20 or more yards downfield. Worthy is a volatile dice roll that might only see 2-3 targets this week.
CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. CAR | ATL vs. NO | DEN vs. KC | BUF vs. IND | MIN vs. JAC | NE vs. CHI | SF vs. TB | PIT vs. WAS | TEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | NYJ vs. ARI | DET vs. HOU | MIA vs. LAR
