The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on the value play and which ones to slot in.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 9 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) @ BAL | $5,900 (DraftKings)
Over his last four games, Bo Nix has four QB1 performances notched on his belt. In those four games, he has thrown seven touchdowns with only one interception and rushed for 149 yards and two additional scores. Among quarterbacks, he has the fourth-most rushing yards and the third-most rushing touchdowns. Overall, he is the QB13 in fantasy points per game.
This week, the Ravens host the Broncos in what could be an interesting defensive matchup. The Ravens allow the most passing yards and the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This matchup features a 46.5 over/under total. If Lamar Jackson and company hang some points on the board in the manner bookmakers are expecting, Nix could end up being a little more pass-happy than normal.
Nix has fringe-QB1 appeal in a favorable passing matchup and still poses a threat with his legs. He is better suited to GPP contests and game stacking as opposed to team stacking.
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL) vs. DAL | $7,500 (FanDuel)
“I push my fingers into my eyesIt’s the only thing that slowly stops the acheIf the pain goes onI’m not gonna make it”
Those are not random musings of Falcons fans. Those are Slipknot lyrics from a song called Duality. And how fitting a lyrical tribute to the season Kirk Cousins is putting together. Through eight weeks of play on his new team, he has three QB1 finishes, which is 37.5%, for those keeping score at home. On a per-game basis, he is the QB17. While not overly inspiring, there have been the good Kirk Cousins games, offset by far more meh Kirk Cousins games. Again, Duality.
The Falcons allow the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including the eighth-highest passer rating. They have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but three games this season. Teams are beating the Cowboys through the air and good Kirk Cousins can deliver in that facet.
His expected ownership will be low enough to make him viable in GPP contests and on the cusp of low enough to be in consideration in cash games. The real question is, which Kirk Cousins shows up? Duality.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) @ BUF | $6,700 (DraftKings)
If there is a potential slate-breaker for Sunday, De’Von Achane would be at the top of my list. In games played where Tua Tagovailoa has started, Achane has finished as the RB3, RB2 and RB2, respectively. He averages 26.4 PPR points per game with Tagovailoa running the offense.
Meanwhile, the Bills are surrendering the second-most fantasy points to the position, including the most targets to running backs. While he should not be expected to repeat his 165 scrimmage yards performance from back in Week 2, he remains a dynamic and explosive weapon.
Achane works in both cash and GPP contests this week. In a game that features a 49.5 over/under total, players from both teams should be sprinkled throughout DFS lineups.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) @ ARI | $7,200 (FanDuel)
After a rough start to the season, D’Andre Swift has been immovable as an RB1 since Week 4. Since then, his worst finish is RB10. Since Week 4, Swift is averaging 96.5 rushing yards, 36.7 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns per contest.
While the Cardinals’ defense is sparsely removed from being the start-your-fantasy-players-in-this-matchup column for DFS, they still have a soft spot for running backs. They currently allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. He has that explosive, big-play potential that he has flexed a few times recently, including a 56-yard house call last week.
Swift does not have the best salary for moderate production, making him more of a GPP play this week, and hoping he either gets the big run or a score.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (WR – NO) @ CAR | $6,100 (DraftKings)
Several factors make Chris Olave an intriguing play for this slate. The return of Derek Carr to the lineup is the first to mention. The (unfortunate) absence of Rashid Shaheed would be the second, as it led to a gaudy 31% target share. Third, the salary is mid-range compared to his range of outcomes for this game, specifically. He has finished with 12+ fantasy points in four of his last five completed games.
Finally, there is the matchup. While the Panthers get a lot of attention for what they surrender on the ground, they are also not stopping receivers. They are currently allowing the 14th-most fantasy points to the position, which is partially deceptive. Meaning, that number would be higher if opposing teams had to focus on the aerial attack. The Panthers are susceptible to perimeter receivers, allowing the second-most fantasy points on a per-game basis.
Based on production, it would be nice if Olave’s salary was a little more friendly, but he remains in a smash-spot position for this slate. Olave feels like a high-range WR2 with low-end WR1 upside this week and can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB) vs. DET | $6,300 (FanDuel)
At the time of this writing, quarterback Jordan Love is expected to suit up and play. This roster selection is primarily based on that expectation. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are all within one target of each other this season. Reed is $1,000 more and Wicks has been far more hit-or-miss this season. The most reliable receiver in the Packers’ offense, from a target standpoint, has been Doubs.
The Lions allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the seventh-most receiving yards to outside receivers. The 48-point over/under total seems likely to favor the over in a game that has shootout potential scribbled all over it. Doubs is in strong GPP consideration, especially for multiple lineup players who want pieces of a divisional game that could be more high-scoring than the bookmakers anticipated.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) @ ATL | $5,100 (DraftKings)
While the tight end position remains one of the more disappointing in fantasy football, the salaries have not adjusted to meet the decline. Therefore, I will admit at the top of this that I do not love the cost of Jake Ferguson, but I like the range of outcomes that could outproduce it. On the season, Ferguson is the TE12 in terms of points per game. However, he has managed to accomplish this feat without a touchdown.
The Falcons have been far more stingy to receivers than tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Unsurprisingly, Ferguson has the second-most targets for the Cowboys. Perhaps this is the game in which he ends his touchdown drought. With a minimal running game aspect to the offense, he is in line for another healthy target share.
This game features a 52-point over/under total. Ferguson can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Taysom Hill (TE – NO) @ CAR | $5,900 (FanDuel)
What is a Taysom Hill? Is he a quarterback? A running back? A tight end? I’ll tell you what he is — he is frustrating to roster, rank and project. The term ‘Swiss army knife’ gets tossed around when his name is mentioned. And while true, it is also an easy way to describe the feast-or-famine approach to his utilization and production.
This play is high-risk versus high-reward. The matchup is great, going up against a Panthers team ranked first in terms of production to two positions he can occupy.
With Shaheed out, Hill could see more snaps and opportunities, but how they arrive and how productive they are is always the question that remains arduous to predict.
Hill is a low-cost but high-upside play better suited to multiple lineup rosters in GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
