The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This week offers a 10-game slate (11 on FanDuel) with some unique roster construction options, especially with so many key players on bye.
NFL Week 13 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. ATL | $5,600 (DraftKings)
If one only looks at Herbert’s fantasy points per game average (16.5), they are doing themselves a disservice. A pleasant reminder that cumulative stats do not always provide a recent depiction. He is averaging 21.26 fantasy points per game in his last five games. During that stretch, he is the QB6 overall, thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, and ran for two additional scores. His worst finish in that stretch is QB12.
This week, the Chargers travel to Atlanta to face a Falcons defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Over the last five weeks, every team they have faced has thrown more than one touchdown against them. (In week nine, Dak Prescott threw a touchdown, was later injured, and Cooper Rush threw another in relief. Mentioned for the sake of clarity.)
Herbert lands as the 12th-most expensive quarterback on this slate and has an implied team total of 24.5 points. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT) vs. CIN | $7,500 (FanDuel)
Wilson has played more similarly to Seattle Russell Wilson than the corny Denver version we were all subjected to. Even in an inclement weather matchup last week, he still managed 270 passing yards and a touchdown. Since his season debut, he has eight total touchdowns to only two interceptions and is averaging a respectable 15.8 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have given up six passing touchdowns in their last two games. This game features a 47.5 over/under, and we could see the over if the Bengals come out swinging.
Wilson has a decent floor but a limited ceiling. He would fit better in GPP contests for this slate and operate best game-stacking rather than just team stacking.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (RB – TB) vs. CAR | $5,300 (DraftKings)
The Tampa Bay backfield has been productive overall. The one-two punch of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, along with a good passing game, has led to plenty of fantasy points. From the eye test standpoint, Irving appears to be the more efficient of the two. However, White easily leads this backfield in passing game usage, which is important in PPR scoring formats.
Currently, Irving leads the backfield in rushing attempts, yards, and yards per carry. Meanwhile, White leads in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Irving’s usage in the passing game has been on the rise.
The Panthers allow the most fantasy points to the position, making both backs viable and attractive. White is $500 cheaper on the salary side and more likely to see the bulk of the targets.
For multiple lineup contests, both backs should be used in varying lineups. Both can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) vs. IND | $6,400 (FanDuel)
It has been an up-and-down kind of season for Stevenson. He is currently the RB25 in fantasy points per game, despite having the 13th-most rush attempts and the 17th-most targets among all running backs. He has finished as an RB1 in 45.4% of his games this season.
The Colts allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, including an average of 116 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Over their last three games, they have allowed four rushing and one receiving touchdowns to running backs.
Stevenson has not been as efficient as how he started this season. However, for the most part, the volume has been there. He has a moderate salary to pair with the expected volume and in a plus matchup. Stevenson represents a moderate, reliable floor, with the addition of targets and potential goal-line opportunities. He fits more into the GPP category than cash contests for this week.
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) vs. HOU | $5,500 (DraftKings)
As a rookie, BTJ has already recorded three WR1 finishes. He easily leads the Jaguars in targets, receptions, receiving touchdowns, and yards per target. Granted, his production took a harsh decline with Trevor Lawrence sidelined, but he did have a decent outing last week against the Lions. With Lawrence under center, he averaged just over an 18% target share. Lawrence is expected to play this week, per HC Doug Pederson.
The Texans, on average, allow the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. However, they have been stingier towards perimeter wide receivers recently. Assuming the Texans can build up a lead (they are favored by 3.5 points), Lawrence will have to operate through the air more. The immediate beneficiary is rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
BTJ suits GPP contests more than cash this week, though he can be used in both based on volume. The biggest contingency is how healthy Lawrence truly is.
Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) vs. BUF | $6,100 (FanDuel)
Jauan Jennings was the guy that everyone wished they had played back in week three when he exploded for 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns and cruised his way to an overall WR1 fantasy finish. Since then, he has had one other top-ten finish paired with one more touchdown. However, instead of writing him off as a fluke, Jennings has provided fairly stable appeal in any type of PPR format. (FanDuel is 0.5PPR scoring) In his last three games, he has cleared 90 receiving yards twice.
The Bills defense is ranked as the seventh-toughest against wide receivers, making this play look risky on paper. If we take a slight right onto Narrative Street, there are a few things worth considering. Brock Purdy is expected to play in this game. The defensive attention will center around Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, most likely in that order. That allows Jennings to do what he does best and slip behind the coverage for a big gain occasionally. Jennings only has three games under ten yards per reception this season.
Jennings is not a cash lock and is far better suited to GPP contests for this FanDuel slate.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (TE – NE) vs. IND | $4,200 (DraftKings)
Hunter Henry is the TE16 in PPR points per game this season. He has the fourth-most targets, fifth-most receptions, and the sixth-most receiving yards. And one lonely touchdown. Translation: safe floor production, and where the heck is that regression fella folks are always yammering about?
The Colts’ pass defense exists…on paper. Though middle of the road against quarterbacks and running backs, their secondary is far more generous. They allow the sixth-most and the seventh-most fantasy production to wide receivers and tight ends. Hmm…one has to wonder who leads the Colts in targets. You guessed it, Hunter Henry.
The matchup is good, but the salary is underpriced. Henry can be safely used in both cash and GPP contests this week. Please, Mr. Drake Maye…find this man in the end zone this week.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI) vs. BAL | $6,000 (FanDuel)
Dallas Goedert is very quietly the TE12 in fantasy points per game. He has the fourth-most receptions of 20-plus yards and the 13th-most receiving yards among tight ends. Oh, and that is with missing three full weeks and 99% of another. He has finished as a TE1 in 50% of his games. Those numbers would be much higher if he were not sitting on only one receiving touchdown this season.
The Ravens allow the second-most receiving yards, second-most yards per reception, and the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
This game features a 50.5 over/under, indicating a potential shootout with two potent offenses. Pieces of this game should be scattered through DFS lineups. Goedert represents a safe floor with a potential ceiling that can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – which help you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.