The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This week offers a 10-game slate (11 on FanDuel) with some unique roster construction options, especially with so many key players on bye.
NFL Week 12 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Tommy DeVito (QB – NYG) vs. TB | $4,000 (DraftKings)
Admittedly, this is straight-up playing the matchup and swinging for the fences on a basement salary. Tommy DeVito has not taken an NFL snap since week 18 of last season. Even then, it was limited work. Last season, in his relief starts, he completed 64% of his passes, threw for eight touchdowns to three interceptions and added 195 rushing yards and another score.
The most intriguing thing about rolling Tommy Cutlets out in a lineup is how delightful the matchup is. The Buccaneers allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. They allow an average of 281 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per contest. If there is a matchup to have in your first start of the season, this is almost the best one.
Malik Nabers popped up on the injury report (groin) on Friday, which could certainly damper DeVito’s expected production. This is a situation to monitor. Real talk, DeVito is a one-off in GPP contests and should be stacked with Tyrone Tracy ($6,000) or Darius Slayton ($4,600) if Nabers cannot suit up. It is a volatile play with upside that can easily surpass the salary cost.
Bo Nix (QB – Bo Nix) @ LV | $8,000 (FanDuel)
Bo Nix has solidified himself in Denver, a team that has struggled at the position for quite some time. As a rookie, Nix is the QB9 in fantasy points per game, QB7 in rushing yards and QB11 in passing touchdowns. Since Week 5, he has finished as a QB1 in five games.
The Raiders allow the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In their previous tilt, Nix lit them up for a completion rate of over 70% and three total scores.
Nix has not just solidified himself for the Broncos. He is close to becoming an every-week starter for managed seasonal leagues and a high-floor option for DFS purposes. He can be safely started in all formats this week in a plus-matchup.
Running Backs
James Conner (RB – ARI) @ SEA | $6,500 (DraftKings)
James Conner struts right out of his bye week and into a good matchup for DFS purposes. For the season, Conner is the RB16 despite only finishing as an RB1 three times. He is a weekly RB2 that maintains RB1 upside based on matchup. His skill set favors both rushing (11th-most rush attempts) and receiving (22nd-most targets) which keeps him game-script proof and provides a solid floor.
The Seahawks allow the 12th-most fantasy points and have surrendered the 12th-most rushing touchdowns to the position. This matchup features a 47.5-point over/under. If the Cardinals are leading, Conner could see more rush attempts. If they are trailing, he could see more targets. If it is rainy and windy, that also favors the run game.
As mentioned before, Conner is a lock for RB2 production with RB1 potential in a positive matchup. Salary cost places him better suited to cash, but usable in both contest formats.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) vs. DAL | $7,900 (FanDuel)
Brian Robinson Jr. is the current RB20 in fantasy points per game this season despite being the RB25 in rushing attempts. He is tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (seven) at the position. Robinson represents boring production. He gets the volume, he gets the goal-line opportunities but lacks that true big-play excitement of other backs. He needs the right matchup and a positive game script.
This week, Robinson and company face the reeling Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. On average, they allow 111.1 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per contest.
Once the Commanders establish a lead, Robinson’s projected volume increases. While he offers little in the way of half-PPR appeal, he is a volume-based play that could pay off if he scores again. He is usable in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN) @ HOU | $5,700 (DraftKings)
Since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley has been excelling as the alpha receiver for the Titans. Over his last four games, Ridley is enjoying just over a 30% target share. During that stretch, he has averaged 9.5 targets and 89.5 receiving yards per game. The only thing missing are the touchdowns, with only two during that same time frame, both coming in the same game.
The Houston Texans allow the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers, including 1.5 touchdowns per contest. The game only features a 40.5 over/under. However, if the Texans are leading, Will Levis and company will be attacking through the air, propping Ridley’s usage up.
Ridley could easily see double-digit targets in this contest, making him a viable PPR volume play. Sadly, half of that production is based on Levis getting him accurate targets, making this more of a GPP play than a cash play. For the cost-conscious, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is $4,100 and has scored a touchdown in five out of his last six games.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI) vs. MIN | $6,000 (FanDuel)
It has not been the season the fantasy community was hoping for in regards to both quarterback play and the trickle-down to pass-catchers for the Bears. Caleb Williams, though full of bravado, has underperformed compared to his rookie peers. Therefore, talented skill players like DJ Moore are also underperforming. Moore only has one WR1 finish this season, but has the 16th-most targets among the position. Volume, matchup and expected outcome of the game make Moore attractive for this slate.
The Vikings have proven to be a solid defense overall. However, they do allow the third-most fantasy production to wide receivers. On average, they allow 184.4 receiving yards and 1.1 touchdowns to the position.
The Bears are expected to be playing from behind, forcing Williams to throw more. The immediate beneficiary is Moore, who is past due for a big game. Consider Moore a volume-based asset that can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) @ IND | $4,300 (DraftKings)
After sitting out last week with a shoulder injury, Sam LaPorta enters this slate with no injury designation. The steam of his rookie-year success has largely dissipated this season, yet the talent remains. After finishing last season as the TE3 in fantasy points per game and the TE1 in total fantasy points, he is currently the TE15 in fantasy points per game this season. There are some encouraging stats to assess, like being the TE5 in deep targets and seeing the 12th-most targets in the red zone.
The Colts allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, including the 10th-most receiving yards. Anthony Richardson remains a wild card, capable of pushing points, making this more of a contest than it appears on paper. If Jared Goff has to lean on the passing attack at all, LaPorta is one of the immediate beneficiaries.
LaPorta can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate and represents more of a risk to his floor than his ceiling.
Hunter Henry (TE – NE) @ MIA |$5,200 (FanDuel)
After a quiet start to the season, commonly referred to as the Jacoby Brissett Experiment, Hunter Henry has returned to form as a reliable target and producer. He has the fourth-most targets and the sixth-most receiving yards among tight ends. The problem? He has one lonely touchdown on the season. Otherwise, the volume is there. Henry is a screaming regression candidate based on his 17.6% target share. He has a decent matchup this week.
The Dolphins are middle of the road against the position, but it remains far more favorable than the wide receiver (fifth-most difficult) position. If a lowly DFS analyst can spot this, it is safe(-ish) to assume a rational coach can as well.
I do not often include prop-type betting in this weekly article, but regression hits this game and Henry has anytime touchdown scorer appeal. At his price point, he is one of the better values at the position this week. He is usable in both cash and GPP contests but lacks the stacking appeal.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
