The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in.
This week offers an 11-game slate (12 on FanDuel) with some unique roster construction options.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NFL Week 11 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT) vs. BAL | $5,900 (DraftKings)
Since taking over as the starter for the Steelers, Russell Wilson is averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game. During that span, he has thrown for 737 yards, six touchdowns and only one interception. He has two QB1 finishes in those three starts.
While he does not add the same rushing element Justin Fields does, Wilson maintains enough mobility to add a few scramble yards to his point total. Wilson feels underpriced on this slate.
The Ravens allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including the highest passing yard average and the most passing touchdowns on a per-game basis. Since Week 5, only one quarterback has not thrown two or more touchdowns against this secondary.
As mentioned before, Wilson feels undervalued and can be utilized in cash and GPP contests.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) vs. IND | $7,100 (FanDuel)
This call is geared more toward GPP contests and is better served for multiple lineup players. The Jets have been a disappointment this season based on preseason expectations. That disappointment has been nearly equally distributed between the offense and defense.
Last week’s outing against a beatable Cardinals secondary fell well below expectations, adding another helping of disappointment to the buffet they have built.
But this could be the week, right? Right?
The Colts’ defense is uninspiring, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They surrender 251.3 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. Aaron Rodgers has three QB1 finishes this season, setting the stage for a fringe QB1 finish at a discounted salary.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (RB – DET) vs. JAX | $6,500 (DraftKings)
One of the key things to look for when trying to be successful in DFS matchups is games with high over/unders paired with higher-than-normal implied team totals.
Then you roster pieces of that game. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to be the better play, but he also has a $7,300 salary. To move down $800 and still get pieces of this offense makes sense for GPP contests, where slotting Gibbs in works better for cash games.
Jacksonville allows the fifth-most points to the running back position. This game features a 47-point over/under with an implied team total of 30.5 for the Lions. The point spread is favorable, the over/under is good and the implied team total is fantastic.
Pieces of this offense should be in lineups this week. David Montgomery is tied for second among running backs for rushing touchdowns with eight through nine games played.
While Gibbs works better in the full PPR scoring format, the salary differential is better suited for DraftKings as opposed to FanDuel’s pricing.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) @ NO | $6,200 (FanDuel)
Since returning from a gruesome injury, Nick Chubb has averaged a paltry 2.7 yards per carry. During that three-game stretch, Chubb has faced the seventh, eighth and second-most difficult defenses for running backs, in terms of fantasy production. Despite the tough matchups, Chubb has seen enough volume to pay attention to.
Chubb is averaging 14 carries and three targets per contest, even in those bad matchups. While the peripherals are not glowing, the volume is stable and now he gets a positive matchup.
The Saints allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Through 10 weeks of play, they are allowing an average of 113.3 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. Since his return, Chubb has seen the bulk of the groundwork for the Browns.
Coming off a week of rest, giving him the chance to knock some rust off, Chubb draws a favorable matchup. He has not done anything to vault him into much more than hopeful fantasy relevance but has enough volume to be viable and enough potential upside to be a value.
Chubb is best used in GPP contests, and preferably on FanDuel, where receptions are slightly less important. He represents both boom and bust potential.
Wide Receivers
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE) @ NO | $5,300 (DraftKings)
Back to the Browns. Before the Browns’ bye week, Cedric Tillman was on a stretch of monster games. In his last three games, he ranked as the WR10, WR3 and WR12, respectively. He is averaging 10.6 targets during that span and 85 receiving yards per game. Granted, three touchdowns over those three games may not be sustainable, but the volume is at least a little more static with Jameis Winston at the helm.
Before the Marshon Lattimore trade, the Saints were already allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to receivers. Now, sans Lattimore, that number could improve beneficially for the position. The Saints can fight back and this game features a 44.5-point over/under with an implied 22.5-point total for Cleveland.
With a capable, but flawed quarterback running the offense, Tillman remains in a position to continue to succeed and is in a favorable matchup. The volume suggests he can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) vs. JAX | $6,300 (FanDuel)
There is a reason I prefer Jameson Williams on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings. The latter’s full PPR scoring structure favors receivers who draw larger target shares.
Williams, when not inactive or suspended, is far more reliant on what he does best — beating defenses vertically for big plays. FanDuel’s format slightly favors production over volume, reducing the inherent risk of trusting Williams in a fantasy lineup.
Williams has finally started to produce in a manner that reflected his 2022 NFL Draft first-round cost. He is the WR34 in fantasy points per game this season and maintains a 16% target share.
The Jaguars allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and have been particularly vulnerable to perimeter receivers.
Williams does not possess the pure volume to thrust him into cash lineups. However, he has the boom potential that could assist a GPP lineup, especially in a game that favors the Lions so heavily.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) vs. KC | $3500 (DraftKings)
This is a punt play with teeth. Dawson Knox has been more of an afterthought than anything else. He has more games of zero targets than he does touchdowns. That said, fortune often favors the available. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have been ruled out. Amari Cooper is questionable.
The Chiefs, though stout on defense, are less than stellar against the tight end position. They allow the second-most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to the position.
With not enough production to proudly declare him a must-start, Knox is a punt play that can be used, at your discretion, in multiple GPP lineup contests.
Will Dissly (TE – LAC) vs. CIN | $5,000 (FanDuel)
Will Dissly has asserted himself as the top pass-catching tight end for the Chargers. While not a pass-first offense, the Chargers have leaned more on the pass in recent weeks. Since Week 6, Dissly has a 21% target share. He is averaging 6.4 targets per game during that same stretch.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Chargers lack an alpha, leading to a target distribution that favors coverage. Dissly could easily have his best game of the season in a positive matchup in a game that could turn into a shootout. This game features a 48-point over/under and was flexed to Sunday night due to Vegas’ thoughts on the outcome.
Dissly represents upside versus cost and is, therefore, better utilized in a top-loaded cash lineup or a GPP contest.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
