Every fantasy football season has one dreaded game week where a frustratingly high amount of NFL teams are on bye. This year’s “bye-pocalypse” arrived in Week 12, when the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and New York Jets were all sidelined. Managers who have relied on the likes of Josh Allen, Ja’Marr Chase and Breece Hall were forced into finding alternative options for their fantasy football matchups.
Despite the absence of many of the game’s biggest stars, fans were treated to an exciting Sunday of football. Saquon Barkley‘s career night and the Cowboys’ unlikely victory over the Commanders were among the week’s top storylines.
As always, certain players’ fantasy output differed greatly from expectations. With the fantasy playoffs looming, assessing these performances and their implications is crucial. In this article, I’ll spotlight the players whose Week 12 production could lead to a shift in perceived value. In each case, I’ll assess whether this outlier performance was a trend worth betting on or an anomaly to disregard.
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Fantasy Football Risers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s talent has never been up for debate. His prospect pedigree and the flashes he showed throughout his rookie year made it clear that he would eventually enjoy a breakout season. That being said, Seattle’s crowded WR depth chart made it hard to foresee JSN’s emergence in 2024. Nevertheless, the sophomore WR has produced as the WR9 in half-PPR formats and has been a mainstay in fantasy football lineups thus far.
Smith-Njigba’s consistent production boils down to volume. He’s usurped Tyler Lockett on the team’s pecking order, as the veteran has failed to earn 5 targets in four consecutive contests. With Lockett’s efficiency declining alarmingly during his aged-32 season, this target distribution trend figures to be permanent.
WR’s with more receptions than JSN in 2024:
⁃ CeeDee Lamb
⁃ Ja’Marr Chase
⁃ Amon-Ra St. Brown
⁃ Garrett Wilson
⁃ Malik NabersEND LIST. pic.twitter.com/lMlZFY1dH1
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 25, 2024
On the other hand, D.K. Metcalf has consistently operated as this team’s alpha WR. He’s proven to be among the league’s best as a field stretcher who excels in contested catch situations. That being said, Metcalf’s return to the lineup has not hindered JSN’s fantasy output. He’s earned a total of 18 targets and 33.5 half-PPR fantasy points in the past 2 games. Pro Football Focus’ average depth of target (aDOT) metric would suggest that the two electric WRs can coincide and both provide excellent fantasy value. As the chain-moving slot WR, JSN is targeted an average of 9.4 yards downfield. Metcalf’s aDOT of 14.4 yards confirms his role as the team’s designated downfield threat.
Smith-Njigba’s efficiency metrics have been stellar. Among 54 WRs with at least 50 targets, he ranks 14th in yards after catch per reception and 8th in missed tackles forced (PFF). This player is finally coming into his own at the NFL level, and he’ll continue to produce at a high rate. He should be ranked as a WR2 down the stretch.
Jaylen Waddle finally delivered on the breakout game that fantasy managers had been clamouring for since the start of the 2024 season. The speedy WR accumulated an absurd 144 receiving yards on 9 targets and 8 receptions during the Dolphins’ emphatic win over the Patriots. Waddle has struggled to earn consistent volume as part of a high-powered offense with plenty of mouths to feed. The likes of De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith have often seen more looks in Mike McDaniel’s system. Could this performance be a sign of things to come?
As great as Waddle looked during this particular matchup, he’s struggled to maintain the levels of effectiveness that have made him an invaluable fantasy asset in years past. Per PFF, he ranks 35th in yards per route run among WRs with at least 50 targets. He’ll need to address these inefficiencies in order to produce at a consistent rate from here on out.
The Dolphins, who currently sit at 5-6, cannot afford to lose many more games. Over the years, it’s become abundantly clear that the team is best positioned to win when the passing attack focuses on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle’s inconsistent usage early in 2024 may simply have resulted from McDaniel experimenting with new personnel and adjusting to having a backup quarterback in the mix. With the team’s season on the line, I’m confident that the Dolphins will return to what has worked best in the past.
Fantasy managers should nevertheless temper expectations. Waddle must follow up with a couple more impressive performances before he can be fully trusted weekly. That being said, he should be ranked on the WR2-WR3 border for the time being. His weekly upside is nonetheless higher than most WRs being ranked in his range.
Fantasy Football Fallers
The Detroit Lions continue to score points at a stunning rate. The team leads the entire NFL with 32.7 points per game. The likes of Jared Goff, amon-Ra St-Brown, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are all enjoying some of the best football of their respective careers. Yet, Sam LaPorta continues to struggle. His lack of production, despite playing a featured role in the league’s best offense, remains one of the most perplexing storylines of the fantasy football season.
His consistent path to volume made Laporta a reliable fantasy asset during his rookie season. Aside from Amon-Ra St-Brown, the team lacked pass-catchers of note. Laporta thus inherited a massive target share alongside the superstar WR. In 2024, Jameson Williams‘ emergence has greatly hindered Laporta’s fantasy value. The former Alabama standout has finally delivered on the promise that made him a first-round draft selection in 2022. He’s earned more targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns than Laporta in 2024.
Laporta has also seen a steep decline in efficiency. According to PFF, his receiving grade and yards per route run have decreased significantly since his rookie year. He’s struggled to make the sophomore leap that we’ve seen countless pass-catchers make during their second NFL season.
Given the dire TE landscape, Laporta still warrants being started in most weeks. This is, nevertheless, a talented player who finds himself in an offense that is extremely conducive to fantasy football output. Fantasy managers must simply temper the sky-high expectations we had for the sophomore TE during the off-season. He remains a borderline top-10 TE option.
Malik Nabers has been the lone bright spot in the New York Giants’ otherwise disastrous season. Following the team’s emphatic loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday, the star WR voiced his frustrations regarding his recent lack of volume and the overall struggles on offense.
"I started getting the ball when it's 30-0. What do you want me to do?"
Malik Nabers follows up when asked why he didn't have a catch until the second half: "Talk to Dabs about that" pic.twitter.com/HNHOPGXysT
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) November 24, 2024
Nabers hasn’t been able to replicate the incredible production he saw as the half-PPR WR1 over the season’s first three weeks. He’s failed to reach 11.0 fantasy points in five consecutive contests. Simply put, the rookie WR isn’t delivering what fantasy managers have come to expect of him.
It’s safe to say that Nabers’ lack of production is to no fault of his own. From the very start of his career, he’s been on par with the league’s best in terms of efficiency. He currently sports an 80.2 PFF receiving grade and ranks 5th among all WRs in receptions.
The issue lies with the Giants’ inability to move the ball downfield. The team was held back by inadequate quarterback play from Daniel Jones throughout the majority of the season. The recent appointment of Tommy DeVito as the team’s starter isn’t likely to make matters better. The sophomore quarterback earned a 64.4 PFF passing grade during his inaugural NFL season.
Regardless, Malik Nabers is a must-start fantasy asset. He possesses a game-breaking talent that can be a true difference-maker in any fantasy football matchup. That said, the Giants’ offensive ecosystem will continue limiting his output. He should be ranked as a high-to-mid-tier WR2 for the foreseeable future.
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