From unforeseen upsets to dominant wins from the league’s powerhouses, Week 11 of the NFL season had it all. Fantasy managers enjoyed a Sunday packed with touchdowns and high-scoring contests. The Detroit Lions continued their historic pace as the league’s most potent offense in 2024. The seemingly unbeatable Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year at the hands of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. A number of inter-division showdowns, such as the Steelers-Ravens and Seahawks-49ers contests, proved to be as tightly contested as advertised. It truly was one of the more entertaining weeks of the season.
As always, there were certain players whose performance stood out. For better or for worse, these players’ production differed greatly from weekly projections. In what follows, I’ll highlight the most notable players whose value is slated to shift due to this week’s proceedings. In each case, I’ll outline the long-term outlook for this player based on what we learned in Week 11.
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Fantasy Football Risers
After an underwhelming start to his career in Denver, Jerry Jeudy‘s move to the Cleveland Browns offered the WR a fresh opportunity to display the talents that made him a first-round draft selection. Deshaun Watson‘s consistent struggles made Jeudy a fantasy football afterthought for most of the season. However, Jameis Winston‘s appointment as the Browns’ starting QB has significantly revitalized Jerry Jeudy‘s value. The latter has scored a minimum of 10.4 half-PPR fantasy points in three consecutive contests.
Much has been said about Winston’s high-risk, high-reward approach to the QB position. The gunslinger’s play style has always been extremely conducive to elevated fantasy football output. In his three starts this season, he’s averaged an absurd 321.3 passing yards. It goes without saying that there is plenty of production to go around in the Browns offense.
With each passing week, it becomes abundantly clear that Jeudy will be the primary benefactor of the new-look Cleveland offense. Since week 8, he’s led Cleveland pass-catchers with 30 targets. Jeudy’s average depth of target of 13.2 yards (according to Pro Football Focus) would also suggest that he’s earned the primary field-stretching role for this team. Given Winston’s ability as a downfield passer, this role will prove to be very fruitful.
All things considered, Jeudy looks to be the WR1 in an explosive pass-heavy offense. He’s finally delivering on the promise that made him a highly-touted prospect during his collegiate days at Alabama. He may very well be a key contributor down the stretch of the fantasy football season. Jeudy should be ranked as a lower-end WR2 for the time being.
In the 49ers’ crowded group of pass-catching options, Jauan Jennings has been the most consistent producer throughout the 2024 season. While the veteran WR has historically taken a back seat to the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, he has forced his way into a consistent role in this offense. He’s quietly performed as the WR19 in half-PPR formats despite missing two games due to injury.
Brandon Aiyuk‘s season-ending ACL injury certainly paved the way for an increase in Jennings’ volume. Nevertheless, Jennings currently leads the 49ers in targets and receiving yards. He’s clearly developed an excellent rapport with Brock Purdy and figures to earn steady volume for the rest of the season. Another aspect to consider is the persistent injury struggles for both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. If either were to miss extended time due to an ailment, Jennings would immediately be vaulted into an elite target share.
PFF’s underlying metrics would suggest that Jennings has taken his game to new heights this season. Among WRs with at least 40 targets, he ranks 5th in receiving grade and 4th in yards per route run (per PFF). Simply put, he continues to make plays for this 49ers team, which seems out of sorts lately.
Jauan Jennings carrying the 49ers offense and the Seahawks defensepic.twitter.com/HCiwy7OPDn
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 17, 2024
Fantasy managers can always rely on Kyle Shanahan to get the most out of his talented weapons. Jennings will continue to play a featured role in this 49ers offense that should make great improvements in the coming weeks. At this juncture, the veteran WR looks to be a true league-winner. He’s a WR2 moving forward.
The departure of much-maligned offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was presumed to positively impact the Chicago offense as a whole. For the most part, this assertion proved to be correct in Week 11. The Bears looked much better than they had in weeks prior and kept pace with Green Bay’s potent offense. Most importantly, rookie QB Caleb Williams seemed more comfortable within this new system.
The new regime seems insistent on increasing Roschon Johnson‘s usage. The sophomore RB saw 11 touches in this contest, which set a new season-high. His 33 offensive snaps were his highest tally since Week 3. This coincided with D’Andre Swift earning his fewest carries in nearly two months. As the clearly preferred back in short-yardage and goal-line situations, Johnson appears to be carving out a valuable role in this offense.
in the bears first game w/o shane waldron, roschon johnson saw:
• 88% of short down-and-distance snaps
• 82% of long down-and-distance snaps
• 67% of inside-the-5 snaps
• 100% of 2-minute-drill snaps
• saw 10 carries for the first time since WK 5data per (@MBFantasyLife)
— nick ercolano (@nickercolano) November 18, 2024
Johnson’s efficiency metrics would suggest that he’s earned this increase in volume. According to PFF, he’s outperformed Swift in terms of rushing grades and receiving grades. He’s scored 5 rushing touchdowns thus far, further suggesting that he has a nose for the end zone.
Given the hefty contract Swift signed during the offseason, it’s highly unlikely that the current starting RB will get completely phased out of the offense. That being said, the new offensive system clearly values Johnson’s abilities as a bruiser back. I would not recommend starting Roschon Johnson just yet, but he is nevertheless a must-roster asset whose volume will be worth monitoring in the coming weeks.
Fantasy Football Fallers
The wildly unpredictable and inconsistent Kansas City offense strikes again. In DeAndre Hopkins‘ second game as a Chief in Week 9, the veteran WR earned 9 targets and scored an impressive 24.60 half-PPR fantasy points. He seemed poised to inherit the Rashee Rice role that proved to be extremely valuable in the early parts of the season. He’s since failed to surpass 7.60 fantasy points in consecutive contests, leaving fantasy managers unsure about Hopkins’ viability in coming weeks.
The Kansas City offense sparingly uses a wide variety of pass-catchers. Every week, a different player emerges as the focal point of the passing attack. In Week 11’s contest against the Bills, Xavier Worthy led all pass-catchers with 61 receiving yards and a touchdown. In Week 10, veteran RB Kareem Hunt paced the team in receiving yardage. Volume distributions have continued to fluctuate on a week-to-week basis. These inconsistencies have even translated to superstar TE Travis Kelce who, for many years, has been a mainstay in Andy Reid’s system.
What’s more, Hopkins’ efficiency has left much to be desired. Among WRs with at least 40 targets, he currently ranks 32nd in yards per route run and 69th in yards after catch per reception (per PFF). It will be an uphill battle to overcome the shaky target volume with this level of ineffectiveness.
All told, Hopkins will remain a frustrating fantasy football asset for the remainder of the season. Given his stature as the de facto WR1 in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, he can be started in desperate situations. That being said, it’ll be extremely hard to predict when Hopkins’ spike weeks will come. He should be ranked as a mid-to-low-tier WR3.
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