Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season delivered its typical mix of drama, excitement and disappointment. Fans were treated to several nail-biting contests that were decided in the dying embers of the game. The Bengals-Ravens, Chiefs-Broncos and Steelers-Commanders contests were all decided by fewer than three points.
On the other hand, some matchups were far less competitive. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets continue to disappoint fans and fantasy football managers alike. Both teams suffered blowout losses by over 25 points.
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Amidst this chaos, many players delivered eye-popping fantasy football performances. While managers continue to scratch and claw for a playoff berth, every player’s performance becomes magnified. Those who exceeded or fell short of expectations will thus see a significant shift in value as a result. Here, we highlight some of the most notable players whose perceived values are set to change after this week’s action.
NFL Players Trending Up & Down
Fantasy Football Risers
After being eased into the Vikings’ system upon his return from injury in Week 9, T.J. Hockenson enjoyed his breakout game of the 2024 campaign. The talented tight end led Vikings pass-catchers in targets, receptions and receiving yards in the team’s win against the Jaguars. In a high-octane offense that has surprised many this season, Hockenson figures to offer plenty of fantasy start sit value in the weeks to come.
Since being drafted eighth overall by the Detroit Lions in 2019, Hockenson has emerged as one of the league’s most effective and sure-handed tight ends. Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics would suggest that before suffering a season-ending ACL injury in 2023, Hockenson was enjoying some of the best football of his career. Among qualifying tight ends (minimum 30 targets), Hockenson ranked third in receiving grade, fifth in yards per route run and second in first downs earned.
He also finished second in total targets. Kevin O’Connell has always made a concerted effort to make the veteran tight end a key part of the Vikings’ passing attack. Based on his Week 11 usage, it appears as though he will resume this featured role in 2024. Aside from superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, Hockenson’s competition for targets is very minimal.
Sophomore wideout Jordan Addison has struggled to build upon his promising rookie season. The latter has seen a decrease in receiving grade, yards per route run and yards after catch per reception from last year, per PFF. The likes of Josh Oliver, Jalen Nailor and Aaron Jones won’t carve into Hockenson’s target share either.
T.J. Hockenson in second game back:
15.2 fantasy points
71% routes
24% targets
20% air yardsThat didn't take long.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 10, 2024
Hockenson figures to play a featured role in an efficient offense for the remainder of the 2024 season. Given the player’s track record of efficiency and production, fantasy managers can rely on Hockenson being a weekly starter from here on out. He should be ranked as a top-seven tight end option moving forward.
Unfortunately, a costly overtime fumble ruined what was otherwise another outstanding performance from Tyrone Tracy Jr. He was the lone bright spot for the Giants’ offense, surpassing 100 rushing yards and scoring a touchdown in the team’s devastating loss to the Panthers. Tracy has scored an average of 14.8 half-PPR fantasy points over the past three weeks and should now be considered a mainstay in all fantasy football lineups.
The Giants have made a clear commitment to Tracy as the team’s starting running back. Despite investing a fairly lucrative three-year, $16.5 million contract in Devin Singletary over the offseason, Brian Daboll quickly grew impatient with the veteran’s inefficiencies. He instead opted for the younger, more explosive back in Tracy and has since reaped the benefits of consistent rushing production. Tracy has seen a minimum of 21 carries in four of the past five games.
The rookie’s efficiency metrics would suggest he can make the most of this heavy workload. According to PFF, he ranks 14th in yards after contact per carry, 12th in breakaway runs and sixth in yards per carry among backs with at least 60 attempts. It’s also important to note Tracy was formerly a wide receiver during his collegiate days. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the Giants made use of this pass-catching prowess. I’d expect a slight uptick in his receiving output in the coming weeks as well.
We’ve seen rookie running backs become incredible assets in the second half of their inaugural season time and time again. Based on his intriguing blend of talent and volume, Tracy may very well be headed toward fantasy superstardom. He should be penciled in as a rock-solid RB2 for the foreseeable future.
Many wrote off Courtland Sutton’s fantasy appeal after inexplicably finishing with zero receptions in Week 7. With a crowded pass-catching core and a rookie quarterback at the helm, Sutton’s path to fantasy viability seemed like a true uphill battle. That said, he’s since produced at a very intriguing rate. He’s quietly performed as the overall WR4 and averaged 16.3 points in half-PPR formats from Week 8 onwards. Can Sutton be trusted moving forward?
The Denver Broncos’ offense, which many expected to be among the league’s worst in 2024, has surprisingly been a very respectable unit. Sean Payton’s play-calling expertise has proven to be invaluable in rookie Bo Nix‘s development. The team has scored a decent 19.7 points per game and has averaged 303.7 yards of total offense per contest. As Nix continues along his upward trajectory in his first NFL season, we can expect further improvements from this unit.
Sutton’s volume has been the most encouraging aspect of his recent boost in production. He’s seen a minimum of nine targets in three consecutive games. What’s more, the majority of these targets are high-value looks downfield. Throughout his career, Sutton has mostly profiled as a boundary wide receiver who can consistently get the better of his defensive matchup on deep routes. He’s continued to fulfill this role in 2024, as seen by his average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.6 yards, per PFF. Nix has earned an 86.6 PFF grade on deep throws, suggesting the two have developed a true connection as of late.
Bo Nix ???? Courtland Sutton
pic.twitter.com/W3E3WAPP2O— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) November 10, 2024
Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos have made a distinct effort to give Sutton his fair share of targets as of late. With this in mind, he should remain in fantasy start sit Flex consideration in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, his upside remains capped by the limited Broncos offense and the sheer number of receiving options in Denver.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Javonte Williams’ roller-coaster season continues. A mere few weeks ago, I highlighted Williams as a potential riser due to the volume he had been seeing weekly. It finally appeared as though Williams earned Sean Payton’s trust as the workhorse running back in the Denver backfield. This idea was completely contradicted in Week 10, as Williams was given a single rushing attempt and three total touches.
The underlying metrics would suggest Williams’ demotion was overdue. He struggled to maintain any sort of efficiency throughout the first half of the 2024 season. Among backs with at least 60 carries, Williams ranks 41st in run grade and 40th in yards after contact per carry, PFF. These numbers are hardly what you’d expect from the starting running back in an offensive scheme that features the position heavily.
Rookie Audric Estime was employed as the No. 1 RB in this contest. While this only amounted to a modest 53 rushing yards on 14 attempts, Estime has the potential to completely overtake this backfield. He led all FBS backs in PFF rushing grade during his final collegiate season.
It’s nevertheless worth mentioning that Sean Payton tends to use his backs unpredictably. While Williams’ three-touch outing is far from encouraging, I would not advise making any rash decisions yet. This unusual usage may have simply been related to a specific game plan for their matchup against the Chiefs. At any rate, Williams should not be started until we get further clarity on this backfield.
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