Happy Thanksgiving, fantasy footballers. I would like to thank anyone who has read this article throughout the 2024 season. It’s been great to learn more about NFL offenses and I hope it has helped with fantasy management decisions.
Below is the Week 13 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.
NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency
Offenses Trending Up
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ last loss came on September 29. On Sunday, Philadelphia gained 481 total yards against the Rams and is now fifth in EPA/play (0.07). They will face the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 13, the premier matchup of this week’s NFL slate.
The Philadelphia running game is the foundation of this winning streak. The Eagles are first in EPA/run (0.13) through Week 12. They lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (193.4) and rushing touchdowns (22). Saquon Barkley‘s impact on fantasy lineups needs no introduction.
Barkley is the RB1 with 12 total touchdowns and over 1,600 yards from scrimmage. He has the top weekly scoring average among all Flex-eligible players and leads all running backs in yards per attempt (6.2). There are no holes in Barkley’s game on this Eagles team. With six games remaining, he will flirt with 2,000 rushing yards barring injury.
Jalen Hurts is delivering for his fantasy managers near the goal line again in 2024. His 11 rushing touchdowns lead the quarterback position by a mile and are tied for second overall in the NFL. Hurts has also thrown the ball well. His completion rate (69.1%) is nearly 5% higher than his career average this season. The Philadelphia backfield houses the fantasy RB1 and QB2 — it must be valued accordingly.
Philadelphia throws the ball at the lowest rate (43.7%) in the league, which comes as no surprise. Their EPA/pass (0) is tied for 13th-best in the NFL and the Eagles are 25th in passing yardage per game (195.7). A.J. Brown is the fantasy WR16 with a team-leading 727 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Brown will have his spike weeks down the stretch but is unlikely to see the same usage wideouts in front of him will receive. DeVonta Smith is second on the team at wide receiver in fantasy scoring but missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Panthers 30-27 in Charlotte on Sunday. They have seen their EPA/play (0.06) increase over the last two weeks, improving on the ground in particular. Kansas City is tied for fourth overall in EPA/run (0.07).
While the Chiefs have an all-generation signal-caller, they rank 17th in pass rate (56.4%) this season. Patrick Mahomes is the fantasy QB11 with a career-best completion percentage (69.8%), 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The turnovers jump out from Mahomes’ line. He has played only three games this season without throwing a pick while the Chiefs are a top-five team in quarterback pressure rate allowed (27.8%) and average target separation (4.2).
Any regression to the mean for Mahomes throwing the ball will yield an increase in fantasy production. He is someone to monitor, particularly if he is less expensive for DFS slates. The Chiefs play the Raiders in Week 13, who have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (20) this season.
Kansas City is spreading the ball around to its skill-position players. Kareem Hunt leads the team in fantasy scoring with Travis Kelce trailing by only eight total points. Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins round out the top four. The Chiefs have a top-10 EPA/pass (0.05) mark that is built from one of Kelce’s best seasons concerning reception rate (78.2%).
Kelce is the fantasy TE5 with only two touchdowns this season. He is within striking distance of a top-three finish at tight end. Hopkins has shown rapport with Mahomes, leading the team in targets (27) at wide receiver since his arrival in Week 8. His three touchdowns triple his total with the Titans this season and Mahomes’ passer rating while targeting Hopkins is 140.0.
The ground game for the Chiefs is successful, but also an anomaly. It carries the NFL’s top success rate (47.9%) but Hunt is its best fantasy asset at RB28. Andy Reid is catching defenses off guard going to the ground in drive-extending situations. Hunt will split time with Isiah Pacheco as soon as he is cleared to play. Fantasy managers should focus on Kelce, Hopkins and Worthy in the coming weeks when it comes to fantasy start sit decisions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are a top-five scoring (28.1) team despite playing without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans from Weeks 8 through 11. Evans returned to the lineup for their 30-7 rout of the Giants on Sunday.
Tampa Bay has thrown the ball well this season. The Bucs are fourth in EPA/pass (0.1) on a pass rate of 58.3%. Baker Mayfield is a top-five fantasy quarterback and is currently third at the position in touchdown throws (24) and completion percentage (71.4%).
With the Bucs allowing quarterback pressure at the lowest rate (24.6%) in the league, Mayfield has logged the best passer rating of his career (104.1). This is impressive considering the injuries this team has seen on the outside. Mayfield has thrown six touchdowns over the last four games and will have a chance to build on his fantasy position facing the Panthers and Raiders over the next two weeks.
The pass-catching group of the Buccaneers will be anchored by Evans and Cade Otton through the season’s end. Otton is the fantasy TE7 and leads the team in targets (70) with 486 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He trails the TE4, Jonnu Smith, by fewer than six total points and is pacing to set career highs in nearly every receiving category.
Evans continues to find the end zone in 2024. He is tied for fifth at receiver in receiving touchdowns (six) while missing three games. Evans sits at WR38 but is a threat to spike at any moment. He is averaging 13 yards per reception and led the team in targets (six) last week upon his return. He will have plenty of opportunities with Godwin out for the year. This passing attack should be highlighted by fantasy managers going into 2025.
Tampa Bay’s running game isn’t as prolific as its passing game, but it is respectable. The Bucs are 10th in EPA/run (0.0) and fourth overall in rushing yards per play (4.9). This backfield has two impact fantasy backs with similar production.
Rookie Bucky Irving has been more productive on the ground with the seventh-best mark in yards per attempt (5.4) overall at running back this season. He has 579 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns and 252 receiving yards.
Rachaad White has been less efficient carrying the ball but leads Irving in the passing game. White has 38 receptions for 301 yards and four touchdowns. Both backs will receive the same level of opportunity this season, but Irving is more efficient and more explosive. He has 14 runs of 10+ yards compared to only four from White and carries a better catch rate (97.0%). Irving has caught 32 of his 33 targets this year.
Offenses Trending Down
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts fell to 5-7 after Sunday’s loss to the Lions. Their offense scored only six points and the team fell to 24th overall in EPA/play (-0.11).
Indianapolis runs a balanced offense, but cannot escape the bottom half of the league concerning efficiency. The Colts throw on 55.2% of their plays and are 24th in EPA/pass (-0.11). Since Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup, he has completed 31-of-58 pass attempts (53.4%) with only one touchdown.
Richardson’s noticeably low completion percentage (47.1%) and negative touchdown-to-interception ratio (5:7) have weighed this offense down in 2024. Additionally, Richardson has lost three fumbles, bringing his turnover total up to 10. Indianapolis is tied for fourth overall in turnovers (18) and will not improve as a unit until Richardson can produce more and turn the ball over less.
The Colts’ running game is a mid-level arm of this offense. Indianapolis is 14th in rushing touchdowns (11) and 17th in rushing yardage per game (166.7). Jonathan Taylor dominates this team in carries (161) scoring five touchdowns on 4.4 yards per carry. Taylor is the RB24 and is capped in that area with the Colts converting only 36% of their third downs and carrying the 29th-best success rate on the ground (36.4%). He is a fringe RB2/flex fantasy start sit option through the end of the year.
The Colts have three wide receivers rotating in and out of fantasy lineups. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are comparable in fantasy output, with Downs being a volume player and Pierce making plays down the field. Michael Pittman trails both with 508 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Downs is the safest play, leading the group with 27 targets over the past four games.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are making up ground in the standings. They claimed the lead in the NFC West in Week 12, but their offense is stuck in neutral. Seattle is tied for 18th in EPA/play (-0.08).
Seattle’s issues on offense stem from poor offensive line play, turnovers and an inability to run the football. The Seahawks have allowed nine sacks in their last two games and remain in the top 10 in quarterback pressure rate (37.8%).
Geno Smith leads the NFL in completions but is 13th in yards per attempt (7.5). The team’s EPA/pass (-0.05) ranks 19th, drug down by an NFL-leading 12 interceptions from Smith. With the Seahawks inside the top five in pass rate (64.0%), they will need their quarterback to make better decisions to increase production. Seattle ranks 18th in both red-zone and third-down efficiency.
The productivity of the Seattle running game is out of balance with that of their passing attack. The Seahawks are 29th in EPA/run (-0.15), 29th in rushing yardage per game (89.1) and are stuffed at the third-highest rate (21.3%) league-wide.
Kenneth Walker has scored eight total touchdowns but is the RB17. With such little volume, it will be hard for Walker to climb into the top 10 at his position this season. Seattle is 28th in total running plays (249) and Walker ranks 36th among qualified players in yards per carry (3.8).
Seattle offers value with its pass-catchers to fantasy managers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the fantasy WR10 and sixth overall in receptions on the season (66). The second-year wideout’s catch rate (73.3%) is solid out of the slot and he has four touchdowns. DK Metcalf returned to the lineup in Week 11 and has 129 receiving yards in the two games since. Metcalf has only three touchdowns on the year but could crack the top 20 at wide receiver with one big outing.
New England Patriots
The Patriots rank 31st (16.4) in scoring after their Week 12 loss to the Dolphins. They are dead last in total yardage per game (280.2) and are converting in the red zone only 46.9% of the time.
New England struggles to throw the football. Their EPA/pass (-0.23) is in the bottom five and Drake Maye has thrown at least one interception across the Patriots’ last four games. Maye is not getting much help up front — New England is second in quarterback pressure rate (42.2%) and has allowed 39 sacks. As a team, New England’s net adjusted yards per attempt is a mere 4.44 yards. There is nothing down the field for this passing game.
Rhamondre Stevenson is holding his own as the fantasy RB21 while his team has an EPA/run of -0.07. He is 11th overall in yards after contact (549) with six touchdowns. When the Patriots have a chance to score near the goal line, Stevenson is likely to get the ball and is usable in Flex slots.
The best pass-catcher for fantasy managers in New England is tight end Hunter Henry. He is averaging 10.5 yards per reception, catching 75.0% of his targets with one touchdown. Henry is a good option to fill in for bye weeks as managers fight for playoff births and seeding.
Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-12)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/Play | EPA/Pass | EPA/Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30.3 | 426.7 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 78.7% | 9.34 | 16 | 33.3% | 9 |
| Detroit Lions | 32.7 | 394.3 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 68.9% | 7.98 | 22 | 34.4% | 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | 29.1 | 345.3 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 63.8% | 7.39 | 13 | 31.9% | 7 |
| Washington Commanders | 27.8 | 370.5 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 58.3% | 7.07 | 28 | 29.3% | 8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 26.9 | 389.1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.13 | 55.8% | 6.88 | 30 | 34.5% | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28.1 | 369.5 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0 | 69.8% | 6.86 | 24 | 24.6% | 13 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24.5 | 342.7 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 55.8% | 5.77 | 27 | 27.8% | 14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | 354.3 | 0.03 | 0.1 | -0.09 | 69.7% | 7.49 | 26 | 31.6% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.6 | 384.5 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 50.0% | 7.22 | 23 | 37.5% | 16 |
| Green Bay Packers | 26.2 | 382.4 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 54.5% | 7.37 | 15 | 30.9% | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 22.2 | 342 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 59.4% | 6.84 | 20 | 29.9% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 22.2 | 361.5 | 0 | 0 | -0.07 | 53.1% | 6.71 | 24 | 37.8% | 13 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 22.1 | 322.6 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.07 | 57.1% | 7.14 | 30 | 36.9% | 5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 24.9 | 351.1 | -0.04 | 0.02 | -0.1 | 53.8% | 7.03 | 32 | 37.2% | 18 |
| New Orleans Saints | 23.8 | 347.4 | -0.04 | -0.1 | 0.03 | 61.8% | 6.47 | 23 | 35.9% | 13 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 21.2 | 331.8 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.09 | 50.0% | 6.28 | 26 | 30.5% | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 22.9 | 328 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.09 | 44.7% | 6.47 | 32 | 37.8% | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | 22 | 313.5 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.07 | 57.5% | 5.92 | 19 | 28.0% | 13 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 22.4 | 346.3 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.15 | 55.6% | 5.71 | 37 | 37.8% | 17 |
| Houston Texans | 23.8 | 336 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 54.8% | 5.61 | 40 | 40.9% | 14 |
| New York Jets | 18.5 | 294.4 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.14 | 52.9% | 5.61 | 26 | 25.5% | 11 |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.5 | 323.9 | -0.11 | -0.01 | -0.23 | 57.6% | 6.08 | 27 | 25.0% | 12 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20.2 | 316.3 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.1 | 52.8% | 5.53 | 24 | 38.5% | 18 |
| Chicago Bears | 20.1 | 298.9 | -0.11 | -0.17 | -0.03 | 65.4% | 4.92 | 44 | 36.6% | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18.9 | 290.8 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.08 | 55.9% | 5.30 | 24 | 28.7% | 16 |
| New York Giants | 14.8 | 303.8 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.1 | 38.7% | 4.60 | 34 | 36.1% | 15 |
| New England Patriots | 16.4 | 280.2 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.07 | 46.9% | 4.44 | 39 | 42.2% | 16 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20.1 | 323.2 | -0.18 | -0.19 | -0.18 | 42.9% | 5.18 | 30 | 29.0% | 21 |
| Cleveland Browns | 16.9 | 292.5 | -0.18 | -0.24 | -0.06 | 57.1% | 4.53 | 47 | 35.6% | 15 |
| Carolina Panthers | 17.6 | 285.5 | -0.18 | -0.28 | -0.03 | 58.1% | 4.48 | 20 | 30.2% | 16 |
| Tennessee Titans | 18.4 | 302.1 | -0.2 | -0.27 | -0.11 | 50.0% | 4.60 | 41 | 44.3% | 21 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 18.7 | 292.6 | -0.22 | -0.18 | -0.3 | 50.0% | 4.63 | 38 | 39.3% | 22 |
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