NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 12 (2024 Fantasy Football)

The NFL playoff picture is developing. Across the league, it is now or never for offenses to calibrate themselves for a run at the Vince Lombardi Trophy. These trends will undoubtedly trickle down to the fantasy football community.

Below is the Week 12 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.

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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Denver Broncos

The Broncos hold the last playoff spot in the AFC. Denver has jumped from 28th to a tie for 20th in EPA/play (-0.09) over their past two games. They take on a 2-8 Raiders team in Week 12 after an impressive 38-6 victory over the Falcons on Sunday.

Bo Nix has been lights out the past month. Since Week 8, the Broncos’ rookie QB has posted a completion percentage of 72.9%, throwing nine touchdowns to only one interception. Nix has a chance to close the season strong, the Broncos are allowing QB pressures at the fourth-lowest rate (27.8%) in the NFL and they are fifth in average target separation (3.8). Nix will have plenty of time to throw to open targets and build on his current fantasy QB7 position. He is a hold for playoff fantasy lineups and should be targeted in Week 12 trade deadlines in year-over-year formats.

While Denver leads with its passing game, it is more efficient on the ground. The Broncos are tied for 13th in EPA/run (-0.05). Javonte Williams leads the team in attempts (112) and is averaging four yards per carry. Williams has a low touchdown total (three) but has nearly doubled the weekly fantasy points (9.2) of Jaleel McLaughlin in 2024. Williams also leads McLaughlin by more than 25 targets in the passing game. Williams is the RB to roster in Denver and should be considered a borderline RB2 through the end of the year.

The Broncos are a top-heavy team concerning their fantasy output. Courtland Sutton is the fantasy WR14, followed by Devaughn Vele at WR83. Sutton will command the bulk of Nix’s targets, offering a high floor and ceiling as Denver pushes for the postseason.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are making an offensive statement in 2024. Their point differential is +159 — 53 points clear of the Bills, who are second in the category. The Lions lead the NFL in scoring (33.6) and are second in EPA/play (0.14).

Detroit is a low-volume passing team but is exceptionally efficient. The Lions rank 30th in pass rate (48.2%), but are second in passing yardage per play (8.1) and fourth in throwing touchdowns (22). The strength of this team’s running game opens the door for Jared Goff in play action, who is second in the NFL in completion percentage (73.0%). Goff has limited mobility, so he is unlikely to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. He is a premier bench stash for injuries or late byes as fantasy managers assess their personnel for the postseason.

The Lions’ backfield is unparalleled in the NFL. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery offer different styles. The Lions are third overall in rushing yards per game (152.2) and tied for second in total rushing touchdowns (18). As individual fantasy assets, both backs offer managers plenty of value. Gibbs is the RB6 with eight rushing touchdowns on a gargantuan six yards per carry.

Montgomery is the RB10 with 10 rushing touchdowns of his own. Gibbs offers a higher ceiling and should be held tightly by managers. Montgomery is a movable piece offering a high floor with little risk of failure in a Flex slot. The Lions have an elite offensive line with plenty to play for; both RBs will be consequential pieces in the fantasy postseason.

Detroit enters Week 12 sixth in passing yardage per game (242.5) and has the aforementioned touchdowns from Goff to go with it. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target machine leading the team’s runner-up in the category, Jameson Williams, by 37 total targets. St. Brown has ascended to WR2 status with 685 receiving yards and nine scores. He should not be traded by fantasy managers interested in winning in 2024. St. Brown has scored in eight consecutive games and is pacing to shatter his career high in reception rate hauling in 84.4% of his targets this season.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams bounced back from a 15-point performance in Week 10 by scoring 28 points in their win over the Patriots on Sunday. The Rams are 17th in EPA/play (-0.05) with a Sunday night matchup with the Eagles in Week 12.

Los Angeles has a pass-happy offense in 2024, but Sean McVay is calling plays to his team’s strength. The Rams are seventh overall in pass rate (59.8%) and are more efficient with Matthew Stafford throwing than focusing on the ground game. Stafford is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 142.7 last week.

Stafford is the fantasy QB21 but should be monitored by managers as the Rams close the season. Stafford could spike at any moment. He threw 17 touchdowns over his last six games with only three interceptions in 2023.

The Rams are tied for the 15th-best EPA/run (-0.07) mark but have managed to produce a top-10 fantasy RB in Kyren Williams. He has eight rushing touchdowns and 750 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per attempt. Despite the inefficiency, Williams’ managers are exposed to a high-usage RB who ranks fourth at his position in attempts per game (19.1). Players with a surplus of opportunity are stable in fantasy lineups and Willimas has two receiving touchdowns, making him the fantasy RB8.

The Rams’ receiving group has faced multiple injuries this year. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have played in only six and five games, respectively. All things considered, Kupp is a top-25 fantasy WR with 488 yards and four touchdowns.

Nacua is averaging 74.6 receiving yards per game when he is available, good for 11th overall at WR in the NFL. If these two can go, they can erupt in a fantasy lineup without notice. If the injuries persist for the Rams, Demarcus Robinson would be the best replacement. He leads the Rams in receiving touchdowns (five) and is fourth overall at WR in air yards per target (15.7) this season.

Offenses Trending Down

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have lost consecutive games and managed only six points on 226 total yards in Week 11. They have dropped from fifth to a tie for 12th overall in EPA/play (0) since Week 9.

Kirk Cousins has failed to throw a touchdown in his past two games and has two interceptions in that stretch. The Falcons are allowing QB pressures at the seventh-highest rate (37.8%) across the league in 2024. This is up from 14th back in Week 8, indicating the additional pressure is impacting Cousins. The Falcons still carry a top-10 EPA/pass (0.05) into their bye this week, but they will face an excellent Chargers defense in Week 13 when they return from their bye week. Cousins is the fantasy QB13. His 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year are valued fairly in this position.

Atlanta watched its EPA/run retreat from 12th (-0.03) overall to 15th (-0.07) between Weeks 10 and 11. Bijan Robinson continues his elite fantasy season and is the RB4 as one of the NFL’s premier dual-threat backs. The second-year star is approaching 1,200 yards from scrimmage with seven total touchdowns. The main barrier to Robinson chasing down Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley is consistent opportunities on the ground. The Falcons are 21st in run rate (42.6%) and Robinson is 17th at RB in attempts per game (15.2).

While the Falcons have struggled recently, they have one top-five fantasy WR and a second top-10 fantasy WR on their roster. Drake London is delivering on his preseason average draft position (ADP) as the WR5 and Darnell Mooney is one of the top fantasy surprises of 2024. Mooney only trails London by 12 total points.

The Falcons’ offense is in a rough spot but offers managers plenty of weapons, all of which have high ceilings.

New York Giants

It has been another long year for Giants fans. New York has lost five straight games, is yet to win at home and is dead last in the NFL in scoring (15.6). Daniel Jones has been benched and the team will start Tommy DeVito in Week 12.

The Giants are calling plays in interesting ways. They are 10th overall in pass rate (58.3%) but are less efficient throwing than they are on the ground. New York ranks 25th in EPA/pass (-0.17), is 29th in passing yardage per play (5.0) and 32nd in passing touchdowns (eight). It makes one wonder why they continue to throw with such volume. Jones exits with a 63.3% completion rate, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. DeVito is a wild card in fantasy football considering this team’s performance this season and his six career starts in the NFL.

The Giants carry an EPA/run of -0.07, built primarily on carries from rookie Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. Tracy has posted an impressive 5.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns along with 18 catches in the passing game. The Giants are only 27th in rushing touchdowns (seven) this season, so hopes for either RB are slim through year’s end. Tracy is a good target for next season. This team and offense are likely to turnover with pieces like Tracy being kept.

Malik Nabers got off to a hot start but has not found the end zone since Week 3. Nabers is still the fantasy WR15, but his ceiling seems to have evaporated along with the Giants’ offense. Nabers will still be an effective fantasy start sit Flex option who leads the team in targets (91).

Overall, the Giants’ offensive line and pass-catchers need to help out their QB more. They are in the top 10 in sacks allowed (30) and in the bottom five in average target separation (3.3).

Tennessee Titans

The Titans sit at 2-8 and have not scored over 20 points since Week 4. They are currently 30th in EPA/play (-0.2) and tied for second in the NFL in turnovers (18).

The pass game efficiency in Tennessee is startling. The Titans are 31st in EPA/pass (-0.28) and average a mere 5.2 yards per passing play. Will Levis is second among qualified QBs in interceptions per game (1.1) and has only eight touchdowns on the season. The Titans have allowed 33 sacks to go with this, dragging their adjusted net yards per attempt (4.36) down to 31st overall. Levis and Mason Rudolph have been pressured at the highest rate (43.6%) in the NFL this season and are not usable in fantasy football.

The Titans are 16th in the league in run rate (44.1%) with an EPA/rush of -0.11. Tony Pollard is the dominant fantasy RB on the team with 681 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns and 30 receptions. Fantasy managers should not count on the Titans trusting this run game, however, as it is 26th in total rush EPA (-28.9) on the season.

The best the Titans have to offer catching the ball are Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. These players are the WR25 and WR 63, respectively. Managers can certainly work Ridley into lineups as a Flex option, but shouldn’t go much further. The Titans are 31st in yards after the catch (934).

Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-11)