NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 11 (2024 Fantasy Football)

The last round of NFL byes will come in the next four weeks. As fantasy managers position their team for the postseason, managing the weeks while their starters are out is key. A strong spot start from a good offensive team can be crucial for playoff seeding.

Below is the week 11 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency, including three offenses trending up and three offenses trending down, and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.

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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 11

*For more details on EPA, click here. The table is sorted by EPA/play.

Offenses Trending Up

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals extended their win streak on Sunday by dismantling the Jets 31-6. Arizona leads the NFC West and enters week 11, tied for the eighth-best EPA/play (0.03) in the league.

Arizona runs and throws the football at nearly the same rate. Kyler Murray is being asked to throw on 50.5% of this team’s plays, and its’ EPA/pass (0.04) is in the top 10 in the NFL. Murray is pacing for a career-high in completion percentage (69.2%) and carries a four-to-one touchdown to interception ratio (12/3). While the throwing touchdown total does not jump out, Murray has added four scores on the ground along with 371 rushing yards. He is the fantasy QB7 and will have an opportunity to improve his position with the protection he is receiving. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth fewest sacks (15) in the league this season, boosting Murray’s adjusted net yards per attempt to eighth overall (7.13).

James Conner has been the most impactful fantasy player for the Cardinals in 2024. Arizona is second overall in rushing yards per play (5.2), and Conner ranks eighth among qualified RBs in rushing yards (697) with five touchdowns. Conner does not offer a profound fantasy ceiling with his touchdown total and usage in the passing game, but he is very consistent. Managers in the market for Conner at the trade deadline are those in need of a higher floor for their RBs.

The passing game in Arizona flows through Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride. The Cardinals rank 27th in total pass plays run (291); volume is neither of these players’ friend. Their opportunities are valuable nonetheless, with Arizona sitting at ninth overall in passing yards per play (6.8). Harrison is the fantasy WR17 with a respectable touchdown total (6), making him a high-floor player in lineups similar to Conner. McBride is the fantasy TE3 without a receiving touchdown this season. He has a catch rate of 80.3%, is pacing ahead of his career averages in nearly every category and should be considered an elite TE moving forward this year and in years to come in dynasty and keeper formats.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers won their third straight game last week, beating the Titans 27-17. Los Angeles continues to take care of the football and is finishing its drives. Their last turnover came in week 6, and their red zone conversion percentage has jumped by more than 15% in the last four weeks.

Justin Hebert’s season-long totals are far from elite, but he is playing solid football. Herbert has thrown 11 touchdowns to only one interception this season and carries the sixth-best passer rating (103.2) among all qualified QBs. Herbert’s fantasy value will be tied to the Chargers’ throwing volume, which was down in week 10 after five consecutive weeks with at least 25 attempts. Herbert is an interesting spot start in weeks 11 and 12, with the Chargers facing suspect secondaries from the Bengals and the Ravens.

JK Dobbins leads the Chargers in fantasy scoring among flex-eligible players. Dobbins is 10th among qualified RBs in rushing yardage (670) and is 14th across the league in attempts (141). The Los Angeles rushing attack is not overly efficient, with a negative EPA/run (-0.1), but Dobbins will get his opportunities with little competition in the backfield. Dobbins should be considered a consistent start in lineups with spike week potential. His six scores represent over 30% of this team’s total touchdowns(19) on the season.

The Chargers continue to improve throwing the ball. They jumped from 16th to a tie for 11th in EPA/pass (0.01) between weeks 9 & 10. Ladd McConkey is the leading fantasy WR on the team with 37 receptions, 492 yards and four touchdowns. McConkey is a rookie and the fantasy WR19, making him a solid starter in flex slots and an awesome keeper in multi-season formats. Quentin Johnston is second on the team in targets (29) and his five touchdowns make him fantasy relevant. He should be viewed as a spotstarter at this stage of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers find themselves alone atop the AFC North. They will put their four-game winning streak and division lead on the line in week 11 against the Ravens at home. Pittsburgh’s EPA/play (-0.02) has improved from 16th to 13th overall since Russel Wilson took over at QB.

The Steelers are more efficient throwing the ball than running it with an EPA/pass of 0.01. Russell Wilson has thrown six touchdowns in his three starts this season and averaged over 245 passing yards in each game. With his small sample and consistent production, Wilson is tied for seventh overall at QB in fantasy points per game (18.9). Wilson is a good bench stash for bye weeks in season-long formats. He is directing an offense that throws at the second lowest rate (46.7%) in the NFL, making his output impressive with the opportunities he is granted.

Najee Harris leads the Steelers in rushing attempts (157) by a mile. His 4.1 yards per attempt place him 31st among qualified RBs. He will get plenty of chances with the Steelers calling the fourth most running plays (309) in the NFL through week 10, and as the fantasy RB23, he is a consistent back-end flex. Leagues will not be won on the back of Harris this season, but they will not be lost either.

The introduction of Russell Wilson has been music to the ears of those managing George Pickens. Over the Steelers’ past three games, Pickens has averaged over 90 receiving yards and scored two touchdowns after not finding the end zone in any of the games prior. Pickens is up to 16 yards per catch, placing him 13th overall at WR in the category. He is a top candidate to ascend as the season closes and should be pursued in the trade market with big plays on the table, considering Wilson’s ability to throw the ball deep.

Offenses Trending Down

New York Jets

The Jets sit at 3-7 ahead of a week 11 matchup with the Colts. New York is down to 26th overall in both points per game (17.7) and yardage per game (298.5).

The Jets continue to struggle with their running game. New York’s EPA/rush (-0.13) is tied for 28th overall, and they are 30th in rushing yardage per game (86.8). Breece Hall has tallied 554 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry with three touchdowns and four fumbles lost. Luckily for Hall’s managers, he is an exceptional receiver out of the backfield. He trails only Alvin Kamara in receiving yards (358) at RB on the season. This brings Hall up to fantasy RB11 status and provides a nice baseline for managers, but it does not offer the ceiling that was anticipated in the preseason. If Hall is the anchor at RB in a lineup, those managers should consider pursuing help at the position at the trade deadline. The Jets are a bottom-five team in rushing touchdowns (5) in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, the Jets have leaned on the arm of Aaron Rodgers this season. New York is throwing on 64% of their plays but is tied for 16th in EPA/pass (-0.05). Rodgers is maintaining a good pace in throwing touchdowns (16), but the throwing volume drops the Jets to 23rd in passing yards per play (5.5). Garrett Wilson is still an elite fantasy WR despite these trends, and he is second in the NFL in receptions (65) with 704 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Given where the Jets stand, managers should not expect much production outside of Hall and Wilson. Wilson offers the best ceiling on the team by far and should be held.

Houston Texans

Houston has dropped from 17th to 20th in EPA/play (-0.09) over the last four games. They continue to be a league leader in QB pressure rate (41.3%) and sacks allowed (35). The Texans have dropped into the bottom half of the NFL in scoring (22.4).

CJ Stroud has seen more QB pressures (167) than any other player this season. Opponents are taking advantage of Houston’s protection issues with additional pressure. Their opponent’s blitz rate (33.1%) is up significantly from 2023. This has been a bad combination for Stroud with his team’s injuries at WR. He has eclipsed 60% with his completion percentage only once in the last four games throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. Stroud is a backup fantasy QB at best until the Texans help him move the ball down field consistently.

The Texans pass-catching group has been faced with injuries all season. Nico Collins still leads the team in receiving yardage (567), playing in only five of the 10 games this year. He is slated to return this week and will be a shot in the arm to this offense. Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz all will be in the mix in the second half of the season, but it looks like Collins will be the alpha as long as he’s healthy.

The Texans are 28th in EPA/run (-0.13), but have managed to crack the top 10 in total rushing touchdowns (10). Despite the inefficiency, Joe Mixon is delivering. He is averaging 4.3 yards per attempt with seven scores. For a team being stuffed at the second-highest rate in the NFL, this is impressive, and Mixon’s managers should value him accordingly.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars managed only seven points in a week 10 loss to the Vikings. They are 25th in total yardage per game (302.9) and a top-10 team in turnovers, with 15 on the season.

Jacksonville leads with the passing game, throwing on nearly 60% of its plays. They remain less efficient through the air with an EPA/pass of -0.14 and rank 23rd in passing yardage per game (195.2). Trevor Lawrence is the fantasy QB12 with the help of three rushing touchdowns. He will be a high-floor spot start for bye weeks from here on in.

The leading fantasy scorers on the Jags are Brian Thomas and Tank Bigsby. The team does better on the ground with an EPA/run of -0.06, but Bigsby still is splitting time with Travis Etienne. Bigsby averages 5.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns, while Etienne averages 4.3 yards per attempt with two scores. Bigsby is a long-range hold in keeper and dynasty leagues. Brian Thomas has the same makeup. He will be inconsistent week to week but has the potential to be an impact fantasy player in the long run. This year will offer limited opportunities for all of these players if the offensive trends hold for the Jags. They are 36-for-109 on third down this season, the fourth lowest rate (33.0%) in the NFL.

Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-10)