NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 10 (2024 Fantasy Football)

The first week of football in November kicks off the second half of the NFL season. Time flies when you are playing fantasy. With season-long trade deadlines approaching, offensive trends provide context managers need to improve their lineups and fantasy start sit decision-making.

Below is the Week 10 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency, including three offenses trending up and three offenses trending down, plus a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.

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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons hold a two-game lead in the NFC South and rank ninth in EPA/play (0.03) in the NFL. They will take on the Saints in Week 10, who now have an interim head coach and have lost seven straight.

Kirk Cousins is settling in. He ranks ninth among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (69.2%) and is tied for third overall in touchdown throws (17). In Week 8 and Week 9, Cousins finished north of 79% in completion rate and threw seven touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The Falcons are blossoming into an efficient passing offense league-wide; they are fifth overall in EPA/pass (0.1) and eighth in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.14). Cousins is the fantasy QB12 but will have a chance to finish in the top seven at his position. He trails Geno Smith (QB7) by only nine total points.

Drake London (70) and Darnell Mooney (64) pace the Falcons in targets. They are the only two players ranked inside the top 12 at wide receiver in fantasy on the same team. London has six touchdowns on a catch rate of 71.4% and Mooney is averaging 14.3 yards per reception with five scores. Both are great pieces to hold for fantasy managers.

Like Mooney, Kyle Pitts averages 14.3 yards per catch, the highest average of all tight ends with at least 35 targets this season. Pitts will have a great chance to finish as a top-five fantasy tight end. His value would be difficult to replace.

The Falcons are 17th in EPA/run (-0.06), but they are seeing more consistency from Bijan Robinson. Robinson has not rushed for fewer than 60 yards since Week 4, scoring three rushing touchdowns in that stretch. The second-year star ranks third at running back in targets (41) and his usage in the passing game has launched him to fantasy RB4 status.

Kansas City Chiefs

For those who do not check the NFL standings weekly, the Chiefs are yet to lose in 2024. Kansas City is tied for seventh overall in EPA/play (0.05) and has seen its red-zone conversion rate (58.1%) improve by nearly 20% since Week 6.

Andy Reid is running a balanced offense this season. The Chiefs prefer the pass to the run by a thin margin (53%/47%) and carry an EPA/pass of 0.04 and an EPA/run of 0.06. Patrick Mahomes does not stand out with fantasy production, but he has logged 553 passing yards and five touchdowns over his last two games. Considering this team’s injuries, this could be the worst we see of Mahomes all year. Managers should pursue him now as the fantasy QB18 with hopes of him being a league-winner down the stretch.

The receiving corps in Kansas City is anchored by Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins while Rashee Rice recovers from a knee injury. The Chiefs are tied for the league lead in average target separation (4.3) and allow quarterback pressure at the third-lowest rate (26.3%).

These trends are terrifying with Mahomes at quarterback, who has connected with Hopkins on 10 of his 12 total targets in Kansas City for two touchdowns on a passer rating of 146.2. While Kelce leads the team in targets (65), Hopkins could become the most valuable fantasy asset for the Chiefs in the fantasy postseason.

Kareem Hunt has assumed the lead running back role for the Chiefs with Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve (IR). Hunt is averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt but has scored five touchdowns in the last four weeks. For the time being, he is a great Flex start with goal-line upside. This phase could be limited with Pacheco eyeing a return in late November.

San Francisco 49ers

Coming off a bye, San Francisco ranks second in total yards per game (412.4) and is tied for sixth in EPA/play (0.06). Perennial fantasy superstar Christian McCaffrey has returned to practice this week.

The 49ers have been more efficient throwing than running on the season. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards per play (7.9). However, Brock Purdy is down in completion percentage (64.5%) and yards per attempt (8.7) relative to 2023. Purdy is being blitzed more this season but is keeping the 49ers’ offense productive under pressure.

San Francisco is fifth-best in sacks allowed (16) and fourth overall in passing yardage per game (253.4). Purdy is the fantasy QB10 with an opportunity to improve in the second half with his weapons getting healthy.

The pass-catchers in San Francisco have faced injuries all season, but George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are on track to play in Week 10. Kittle is the fantasy TE1 and is on pace to set a career mark in reception rate (81.6%). It is unlikely he will finish outside the top two at his position.

Samuel is coming back from multiple injuries and has only one touchdown reception on the year. He is, however, a good trade target or hold for his managers. Samuel is averaging 16.9 yards per reception in 2024 operating at less than full strength.

The story of the 49ers’ backfield will be Christian McCaffrey if he can play this week. His fantasy impact goes without saying and the honeymoon stage for Jordan Mason managers will be over if he stays on the field through the end of the season. San Francisco is in the top five in rushing yards per game (159.0) and rushing yards per play (5.1); the pieces are in place for McCaffrey to take off.

Offenses Trending Down

Chicago Bears

The Bears have dropped consecutive games, scoring 24 total points across both outings. Chicago is 25th in EPA/play (-0.13) with a chance to bounce back against the Patriots on Sunday.

Chicago is throwing on over half of its plays (56.7%) but is a bottom-five team in passing yards per game (182.1) and passing yards per play (5.0). The pressure on Caleb Williams early in the year has persisted with the Bears allowing the fifth-most sacks (29) in the league.

This is impacting Williams’ accuracy, as he ranks 29th among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (61.4%) and has a personal EPA of -41.9, placing him behind Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph in the category. Something will need to change for Williams to be an impact fantasy player before the season ends.

With throwing woes comes poor fantasy output from pass-catchers. The best the Bears have to offer at wide receiver in fantasy is DJ Moore, who is the WR27. Moore leads the team in targets (58) but is behind schedule in yardage on the year, pacing for 800 receiving yards. Cole Kmet is the next best option for fantasy managers to start in Chicago. He is the TE10 with a very high catch rate (90.0%) and three touchdowns.

The Bears remain better on the ground with D’Andre Swift leading the way. Chicago is 23rd in EPA/run (-0.08) with Swift as the RB17 in fantasy. Swift ranks 42nd among qualified players in rush EPA (-20.6), making his efficiency suspect, at best.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys now have injury concerns with CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. Dallas is 23rd in EPA/play (-0.11) and is a top-five team in turnovers on the season with 13.

Dallas throws at the highest rate (66.7%) of any NFL team but ranks 20th in points per game (21.4). Even with their franchise quarterback on the field, this approach has produced three straight losses. With Prescott likely to miss four games, Cooper Rush will step in.

Rush has appeared in three games this season, completing only 56.4% of his throws with a touchdown and an interception. The likelihood of an increase in fantasy production for this offense seems low. The Cowboys are 23rd in EPA/pass (-0.15) and 31st in average target separation (3.1). Rush’s weapons will be far from “wide open”.

The Cowboys’ group of skill players is thin. CeeDee Lamb is an elite NFL talent, and that’s it. Lamb is the fantasy WR4, but his near future is unclear after suffering a shoulder injury on Sunday. Lamb is pacing for over 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, but with Prescott’s injury, he will be less reliable in the second half and into the fantasy postseason.

Lamb should be involved in trade discussions and needs to be accompanied by more risk in lineups — his ceiling is dropping with a backup quarterback.

The Cowboys are 31st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (82.0) and are tied for dead last in rushing touchdowns (three). Do not start their backfield in fantasy football.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have seen their points per game (20.9) and yardage per game (315) marks retreat in each of the last three weeks. They rank 22nd overall in both categories going into Week 10.

Joe Flacco‘s first start after the Colts benched Anthony Richardson was not pretty. He was 16-of-27 for 179 yards and an interception. Indianapolis is 21st in EPA/pass (-0.12) and 28th in average target separation (3.3). Flacco will have his work cut out for him throwing on a team allowing the seventh-highest rate (38.2%) of quarterback pressure in the NFL.

The Colts’ target leaders are Josh Downs (56), Alec Pierce (33) and Michael Pittman (57). Downs looks to be the safest play as the leader in receptions (38), but things could change week to week as Flacco settles in as the starter. Pierce and Pittman average 7.9 and 7.1 fantasy points per game, respectively. Downs averages 11.3.

Jonathan Taylor is the best fantasy asset on this team averaging a respectable 4.8 yards per attempt. The Colts are in the top 10 in yards before contact per attempt (1.81), a trend indicating there is running room for Taylor. As the RB23, Taylor is far from a “must-hold” for managers. He is a high-floor player and should be shopped by managers looking for explosiveness. Use our fantasy trade calculator to gauge his trade value.

Efficiency Statistics