Because of the Thanksgiving tripleheader and the Black Friday contest, the main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel have 10 and 11 games, respectively, despite no teams on byes this week. Two games stand out from the pack as the most intriguing to stack in Week 13. The first is a potentially sneaky shootout spot, and the second won’t fly under the radar as a star-studded afternoon contest with a juicy over/under total. The two suggested game stacks have a few players featured among the core studs and the values/punts. Yet, a trio of one-off selections are also included in those sections. Finally, Sleeper and Underdog had a few enticing pick ’em selections.
NFL Week 13 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: TB -6.0/46.5 Points
The Panthers and Buccaneers came out of their Week 11 byes firing on all cylinders. Tampa Bay hung 30 points on the lifeless Giants in New Jersey, and Carolina shockingly scored 27 points against the Chiefs.
The Buccaneers have another Charmin-soft matchup, and Tampa Bay's defense is less imposing for the Panthers this week than the Chiefs were in Week 12. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bucs have allowed the ninth-most points per game (24.8), and the Panthers have yielded the most points per game (30.9). The table is set for a shootout if Bryce Young can maintain momentum from a stellar showing last week.
The second-year quarterback passed for 263 yards and one touchdown, adding 20 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Per RotoViz's pace app, the Panthers had an eye-catching 68% situation-neutral pass rate last week. Young has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Bucs have coughed up the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season. Additionally, the underdog Panthers will likely be in a negative game script, enhancing Young's outlook for chucking the football.
Xavier Legette is the most enticing pass-catching weapon from the Panthers, but Adam Thielen and David Moore are intriguing, too. Thielen and Moore are riskier if Jalen Coker is active after missing last week's contest. Still, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Week 12, Legette, Moore and Thielen were in the top three for the Panthers in route participation at 90.0%, 87.5% and 70.0%, respectively. Moore was the most productive of the bunch, tallying a 13.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 45.9% air-yard share, 28.6% target share, 0.29 targets per route run, 36.0% first-read percentage, three end zone targets, six receptions, 81 receiving yards and a touchdown. The performance was an outlier. However, Moore's 79.9% route participation rate since Week 8 is the highest on the Panthers.
Moore could turn into a pumpkin, but his usage last week, general route participation and alignment are reasons enough to mix him into GPP lineups. Moore aligned wide 71.4% of the time last week, and Legette had a 69.4% wide alignment rate. The Bucs have faced the third-highest target rate wide (44.3%) this season and the sixth-lowest to the slot (29.3%).
Legette's underlying data wasn't too shabby last week, either. He had a 27.0% air-yard share but just a 14.3% target share, four receptions and 56 receiving yards. Nevertheless, Legette is an exciting pick this week against a defense coughing up the seventh-most DraftKings and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this year.
Thielen's slot gig is less favorable than Legette's and Moore's perimeter roles. However, Tampa Bay's inability to contain wideouts helps Thielen's Week 12 layout, and the veteran wideout has an established rapport with Young going back to last year. He could also build on his 13.9% air-yard share, 11.4% target share, 0.14 targets per route run, 16.0% first-read percentage, three receptions and 57 yards in his return from the Injured Reserve (IR) in Week 12 if he was shaking off the rust last week.
Bucky Irving will be featured among the punts/values. So, I'll analyze him there. Cade Otton is another stellar selection after back-to-back disappointing efforts. In Tampa Bay's previous two games, Otton had five receptions for 35 scoreless yards and one for 30. Nonetheless, Otton has played well after a quiet first two games of the year.
Among 56 tight ends with at least 75 routes since Week 3, Otton is eighth in route participation (74.1%), eighth in air-yard share (19.9%), sixth in target share (20.3%), tied for ninth in targets per route run (0.25), eighth in first-read percentage (20.8%), fourth in receptions (49), seventh in receiving yards per game (53.4), tied for third in end zone targets (five), tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (four) and sixth in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (12.4). Otton should bounce back in the literal best matchup this week. The Panthers have allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season.
The Bucs are favored, and Young's showing last week was an outlier for his larger body of work. Tampa Bay's defense is an interesting stacking option with Irving, and gamers can even use a wide receiver bring-back.
Game: Ravens vs. Eagles
Spread/Total: BAL -3.0/51.5 Points
The Ravens have an implied total of 27.25 points, and the Eagles have an implied total of 24.25. Gamers won't sleep on this star-studded potential shootout. I'll dive deeper into Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown below.
Still, this game is loaded with optimizer darlings. Hurts is projected as the QB1 at both DFS outlets, Lamar Jackson is the QB2 at DraftKings and the QB3 at FanDuel, Saquon Barkley is the RB2 at both providers, Derrick Henry is the RB7 at DraftKings and the RB6 at FanDuel, Brown is the WR3 at DraftKings and the WR2 at FanDuel and Zay Flowers is a top-15 wideout at both providers.
It's appealing, albeit expensive, to mix and match the high-salaried studs in this game. Philadelphia's defense is locked in, but Jackson and King Henry are unicorns with slate-breaking upside, keeping them in the GPP mix. Barkley's matchup is dreadful, but, like Jackson and Henry, he's a freakshow capable of eviscerating even the NFL's best defenses, making him a compelling GPP pick. I don't need to wax poetic about Jackson, Henry or Barkley to convince gamers to use them, and Hurts and Brown are included in the core studs.
Flowers and ancillary pieces such as Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert don't have the otherworldly statistics of the studs in this contest, but they're intriguing game-stacking options. Flowers is Baltimore's unquestioned top pass-catching weapon, pacing the team in route participation (86.2%), air-yard share (30.0%), target share (25.0%), first-read percentage (29.5%), receptions (57), receiving yards per game (65.8), end zone targets (seven) and expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (14.4). Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are talented rookie cornerbacks, but the Ravens can move Flowers around to get him favorable looks, and Flowers has big-play potential on scramble-drill plays.
Bateman also has big-play potential on broken plays Jackson turns into deep shots. Bateman's 26.7% air-yard share is the second-highest on the Ravens, his six end zone targets are tied for the second-most on the team and his five receiving touchdowns are the second-most for the Ravens.
Andrews has had a 63.8% route participation rate since Week 9 versus 41.3% for Isaiah Likely. It would be nice if Andrews could crack a 70% route participation rate, and maybe he can with Charlie Kolar injured. Still, Andrews is efficient and has a nose for the end zone. This season, Andrews has tallied 1.86 yards per route run, four end zone targets (touchdowns on all his end zone targets) and a team-high six receiving touchdowns.
Goedert is only interesting if DeVonta Smith is out again this week. Since Smith didn't practice at all last week, he'll need to make significant strides to return this week, and the Eagles shouldn't feel compelled to rush him back since they have a 2.5-game lead and a head-to-head victory over the Commanders in the NFC East. In four games without Brown or Smith this year, Goedert had a 76.2% route participation, 25.7% air-yard share, 23.3% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 28.8% first-read percentage, one end zone target, 24 receptions (6.0 per game), 289 receiving yards (72.3 per game), 2.65 yards per route run, zero touchdowns and 11.9 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game.
Core Studs
- According to RotoViz's pace app, the Ravens have faced the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) since Week 9. Baltimore has also struggled against quarterbacks this year, ceding the third-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to them. It's an ideal opportunity for Hurts to hit his passing ceiling. And, of course, Hurts is a monster on the ground, with 41.5 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns in 11 games this year.
- Among 115 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this year, Brown is first in air-yard share (49.6%), second in target share (28.9%), fourth in first-read percentage (36.4%), tied for 23rd in end zone targets (six) despite having a bye and missing three games, third in receiving yards per game (96.0), first in yards per route run (3.67) and tied for 20th in receiving touchdowns (four). Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed the second-most DraftKings and the most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this year. Unsurprisingly, after including Baltimore's coverage tendencies, Brown has the most expected fantasy points per route this week, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points.
- Nico Collins has balled out this year. Among wideouts with at least 125 routes, he's eighth in air-yard share (41.4%), tied for 18th in target share (23.3%), tied for sixth in targets per route run (0.29), 22nd in first-read percentage (28.7%), first in receiving yards per game (101.9), second in yards per route run (3.44), tied for ninth in end zone target (nine) despite an IR stint and tied for 20th in receiving touchdowns (four). His matchup in Week 13 is dreamy. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts this year, and Collins torched them for 12 receptions, 151 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 4. The optimizer projects Collins to be the WR1 at both DFS providers this week.
Value Plays/Punts
- Irving is a steal at both DFS sites. The rookie running back has the RB2 value score at DraftKings and the RB5 value score at FanDuel. Irving received the post-bye rookie bump in Week 12. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Irving ran 20 routes versus 11 for Rachaad White in Week 12, and they each had 12 carries. Irving torched the Giants for 87 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six receptions and 64 receiving yards. He's in an eruption spot with the Buccaneers favored against Carolina's pitiful defense. The Panthers have allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs this season.
- Chase Brown should have fresh legs after a breather in Week 12. The second-year running back was likely thankful for the Week 12 bye after carrying the load before it. In Cincinnati's last three games, Brown had 32, 24 and 29 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets). He rattled off 157, 94 and 143 scrimmage yards with five, nine and five receptions and two touchdowns. Brown's workload isn't sustainable. Thus, Zac Taylor might shift some opportunities to Khalil Herbert. Nevertheless, Brown has work to cede while maintaining a bell-cow role, and the Bengals are favored at home against the Steelers. Brown's salary hasn't caught up to his workload and production, so he has the RB1 value score at both DFS outlets.
- Josh Downs is likely out this week, opening the door for Adonai Mitchell to play a full-time role. Among 110 wideouts with at least 125 routes this year, Mitchell is tied for sixth in targets per route run (0.29) and second in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per route run (0.62). The speedy rookie can thrive in an increased role and favorable matchup. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings and the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season. Anthony Richardson's inaccuracy could lead to a dud showing from Mitchell. Still, there's enough to like about him to roll the dice at his bargain salary.
Week 13 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
A.J. Brown: 92.5 Receiving Yards Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.73x)
A.J. Brown: 91.5 Receiving Yards - Higher(Underdog)
Brown has exceeded 92.5 receiving yards in four of eight games this year. The Eagles have won all eight games Brown has played this year, and only four of them were one-score games. Philadelphia's alpha wideout had 119, 116, 36 and 65 receiving yards in those games, and the latter two were misleading one-score victories against the Jaguars and Commanders since Philadelphia was dominating both of those contests. The Ravens should push the Eagles, and their secondary doesn't have the personnel to slow down Brown.
Bucky Irving: 59.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.65x)
Bucky Irving: 59.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Buccaneers are 6.0-point favorites. Therefore, Irving should have ample opportunities to tote the rock in a neutral and positive game script this week. The Panthers have allowed the most rushing yards per game (129.5) to running backs, and Irving is one of the NFL's most efficient runners this year. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Irving is fifth in yards per carry (5.36), tied for fourth in explosive run percentage (7.4%) and third in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31).
Ladd McConkey: 64.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.71x)
Ladd McConkey: 64.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In seven games since the Chargers' Week 5 bye, Ladd McConkey has had an 82.5% route participation rate, 26.2% air-yard share, 19.8% target share, 0.20 targets per route run, 25.5% first-read percentage, 34 receptions (4.9 receptions per game), 528 receiving yards (75.4 per game) and 2.43 yards per route run. He's playing exceptionally well and has a favorable matchup this week. The Falcons have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game (152.4) to wide receivers this season. The talented rookie should keep rolling this week, and we project him to have 65.5 receiving yards against Atlanta.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.