Many games on Week 12’s DFS main slate have large spreads, decreasing the appeal of stacking them. However, a pair of games with talented skill-position players on each team have slight spreads and the potential for a shootout. So, they’re the two most appealing games to stack this week. However, the studs and values/punts are filled with players from other contests, with one exception. Finally, three overs were the most eye-catching pick ’em choices at Sleeper and Underdog this week. Here are our top NFL DFS Week 12 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 12 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Packers vs. 49ers
Spread/Total: GB -2.5/47.5 Points
The Packers and 49ers are meeting in Week 12 in a rematch of last year's narrow victory by San Francisco. Both teams have a handful of quality fantasy options. While both quarterbacks are suggested, the running backs are bell-cows on run-heavy teams.
According to RotoViz's pace app, since Week 8, the Packers have tied for the highest situation-neutral rush rate (56%), and the 49ers have tied for the 10th-highest mark (48%). Josh Jacobs has excelled in his first season for the Packers, averaging 102.4 scrimmage yards and 2.3 receptions per game, splashing paydirt five times. Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in Week 10. He hasn't looked like himself yet, but the 49ers haven't eased him into action. CMC has reprised his monstrous, DFS-friendly role, and he could shake off the rust and explode at any time.
The Packers are more likely to turn their offensive tendencies on its head based on the matchup. The 49ers are tied for the sixth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) against them since Week 8. Conversely, the Packers are tied for the seventh-lowest situation-neutral pass rate (54%) against them in that period. However, the 49ers are also underdogs, which would force them to throw if they were in a negative game script.
Brock Purdy and Jordan Love have the passing chops to deliver the goods. Both are inside the top-five qualified quarterbacks in passing yards per game, with Purdy fourth (261.3 per game) and Love fifth (260.1 per game). Love has also tossed 16 touchdowns in just eight games this year. Purdy has thrown just 13 touchdowns in 10 games this season. However, he's chipped in 26.7 rushing yards per game and four rushing touchdowns.
Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs each had moments, but none of them dominated the target share. One notable change for the group after Green Bay's Week 10 bye was Watson's ability to distance himself from Dontayvion Wicks in route participation. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Week 11, Doubs had an 80.0% route participation, Watson had a 70.0% route participation, Reed had a 60.0% route participation and Wicks had a 30.0% route participation. Reed, Watson and Doubs all have eruption potential, and they can be mixed and matched as part of double stacks with Love or used as bring-backs in a game stack.
Jauan Jennings will be featured below. George Kittle is another intriguing pass-catching option from this contest if his hamstring doesn't sideline him for a second straight game. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 39 tight ends with at least 125 routes this year, Kittle is fourth in route participation (74.9%), fourth in air-yard share (21.0%), fifth in target share (21.0%), eighth in targets per route run (0.24), fifth in first-read percentage (23.9%), first in end zone targets, tied for sixth in receptions (43), second in receiving yards per game (70.0), first in yards per route run (2.57), first in touchdowns (seven) and second in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (13.9).
Game: Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Spread/Total: ARI -1.0/47.5 Points
The most straightforward stack for this potential back-and-forth affair is to use Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a James Conner bring-back. Since Week 8, the Seahawks have been tied for the 10th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (58%), and the Cardinals have been tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) against them. Meanwhile, Arizona has had the third-highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%) in that period.
A likely more contrarian stack would be Kyler Murray with Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride or both, and a Kenneth Walker bring-back. Could the Cardinals open up their passing attack a bit out of their bye against a pass-funnel defense in recent weeks? Maybe. The Seahawks have faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 8. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier this week, MHJ could enjoy a post-bye rookie bump after an encouraging start to his first professional campaign. His post-bye surge could start in a favorable matchup this week, given Seattle's press-coverage-heavy tendencies, as Jacob Gibbs pointed out on Twitter/X.
The Seahawks use press coverage at the fifth-highest rate (72%) defensively.
Only Nico Collins has a higher Fantasy point per route run rate vs. press than Marvin Harrison Jr. among WRs with 50+ routes vs. press. https://t.co/QiOlEWY64d pic.twitter.com/5U4Ljwc4t1
- Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 20, 2024
Core Studs
- Jennings's DFS salaries haven't kept up with his ascension to being a top-flight wide receiver. In his three games without Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings had an 88.7% route participation rate, 42.0% air-yard share, 35.1% target share, 0.32 targets per route run, 41.8% first-read percentage, 28 receptions (9.3 per game), 359 receiving yards (119.7 per game), four touchdowns and 19.6 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. His salary is way too low at both DFS providers, and the optimizer spits out the WR2 value score at DraftKings and a tie for the WR1 value score at FanDuel.
- Sadly, a stint on the Injured Reserve (IR) interrupted Nico Collins's season. Otherwise, he's been a beast. Among 110 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this season, Collins is 10th in air-yard share (41.4%), 21st in target share (22.8%), seventh in targets per route run (0.29), tied for 23rd in first-read percentage (28.1%), tied for 13th in end zone targets (seven), first in receiving yards per game (103.5), first in yards per route run (3.57) and tied for eighth in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (16.8) this season. He doesn't have a favorable matchup. Still, Collins is matchup-proof, and the Titans have faced a 59% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 8.
- Travis Kelce is in a rebound spot after last week's disappointing showing. The veteran tight end's production exploded when Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending injury early in Week 4. Since Week 4, Kelce has had a 79.7% route participation rate, 29.5% air-yard share, 26.2% target share, 0.29 targets per route run, 31.5% first-read percentage, 54 receptions (7.7 per game), 438 receiving yards (62.6 per game), 1.92 yards per route run, three end zone targets, two touchdowns and 15.9 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Kelce has an eruption spot against the Panthers this week. Carolina has allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (16.7) and the most FanDuel points per game (14.1) to tight ends this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Tommy DeVito isn't an exceptional talent. Yet, he has the minimum salary for a quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel and demonstrated enough moxy last year to provide optimism he'll be a value this week. DeVito had 172.2 passing yards per game with eight touchdown passes and three interceptions in the six games he attempted at least 20 passes last year. Tommy Cutlets also averaged 29.7 rushing yards per game in those contests. The cupboards were largely bare for DeVito last season, and Malik Nabers is a massive upgrade upon anyone he threw to last year. Finally, the Buccaneers have allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this year.
- Brian Robinson is a steal at DraftKings and a value at FanDuel. The Commanders are a 10.5-point favorite at home against Dallas's pitiful run defense. According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys have coughed up the second-most Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush this season. Per Pro Football Reference, Dallas has ceded the seventh-most rushing yards per game (111.1) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (13) to running backs this season. Robinson cleared 60 rushing yards in three straight contests, bested 100 twice this year and scored at least one touchdown in six of eight games. He should steamroll the Cowboys.
- Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have formed a formidable one-two punch for the Bucs. While Sean Tucker had an outburst and briefly turned things into a three-way committee, he was phased back out before Tampa Bay's Week 11 bye. Tucker had only five rush attempts from Week 8 through Week 10, including zero in Week 10. Since Week 8, Irving has handled 54.7% of Tampa Bay's backfield's rush attempts. He's shined in underlying data during his rookie season. Among 53 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Irving is tied for fifth in yards per carry (5.13), sixth in yards before contact per attempt (2.40), tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt (2.73), tied for sixth in explosive run percentage (7.3%), 15th-lowest stuff percentage (42.7%) and third in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31). Irving's matchup is mouthwatering. The Giants have allowed the most EPA per rush attempt this year. The G-Men have also coughed up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (116.9) and six touchdowns to running backs in 10 games this season.
Week 12 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
David Montgomery: 58.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.74x)
David Montgomery: 57.5 Rushing Yards - Higher(Underdog)
The Lions are 7.5-point favorites against the Colts. Teams have hammered their running backs against Indianapolis. The Colts have faced the most rush attempts per game (26.5) by running backs, allowing them 115.1 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Lions have had a 46% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 8 and a 59% rush rate when leading by at least six points, excluding the final two minutes in the first half.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should have plenty of meat on the bone. Montgomery has averaged 59.9 rushing yards per game this year, surpassing 58.5 in five of nine victories. We project Montgomery to have 63.2 rushing yards in Week 12.
Brian Robinson: 69.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper)(1.74x)
Brian Robinson: 68.5 Rushing Yards - Higher(Underdog)
Robinson has averaged 65.5 rushing yards per game this year, a pinch short of his props at Sleeper and Underdog. However, he played only 34% of the snaps in Week 5, exiting early with an injury. Robinson had only 18 yards in that contest. Excluding that game, Robinson has averaged 72.3 rushing yards per game. We project him to have 70.3 rushing yards against Dallas's Charmin-soft run defense this week.
Jauan Jennings: 53.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.71x)
Jauan Jennings: 53.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
I already discussed Jennings's elite underlying data without either Samuel or Aiyuk. He had 175, 93 and 91 receiving yards in those three games. His line is much too low, and we project him to have 61.9 receiving yards against the Packers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
