A pair of division matchups are the two most appealing games to stack, with one in the early window and the other in the afternoon window. A few players from those contests appear among the core studs and the values/punts. Yet, some one-off picks will also be highlighted. Finally, some picks stood out as the most appealing selections from Sleeper and Underdog’s pick ’em lobbies.
NFL Week 11 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Steelers vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -3.0/48.5 Points
The expectations for the Steelers from outside their building weren't high entering this year. Yet, they're sitting atop the AFC North, with the high-powered Ravens nipping at their heels. Pittsburgh's defense is one of the best units in the league, but Baltimore's has gone in the tank without Seattle's new head coach, Mike Macdonald.
Nevertheless, the Ravens have a wagon of an offense, and the Steelers have thrived with Russell Wilson guiding the Arthur Smith-called offense. The betting info indicates this won't be a traditional AFC North defensive slog between the Steelers and the Ravens. Thus, it's an appealing stacking matchup with shootout potential.
The path of least resistance for the Steelers is through the air. However, they're a ground-and-pound offense at their core. According to RotoViz's pace app, Pittsburgh's 52% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 6 is tied for the second-highest mark. Conversely, since Week 7, Baltimore has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (67%).
Jaylen Warren is one of the most appealing bargain running backs because he is Pittsburgh's passing-down back but also mixes in as a change-of-pace option. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Pittsburgh's past two games, Warren has had 23 rush attempts for 112 yards (56.0 per game), 4.87 yards per carry, 2.52 yards before contact per attempt, 2.35 yards after contact per attempt, 0.30 missed tackles forced per attempt, an 8.7% explosive run rate, a 43.5% stuff rate, a 36.4% route participation, 8.8% target share, 0.21 targets per route run, four receptions (2.0 per game), 42 yards (21.0 per game), 1.75 yards per route run and one end zone target.
Warren is game-script-proof. He can succeed if Smith wisely attacks the Ravens through the air or if Warren mixes into a run-heavy game plan. Furthermore, Warren's number could be called more frequently this week if Najee Harris's ankle injury renders him ineffective or limits his workload. Warren is a steal if Harris's ankle injury keeps him out against the Ravens.
Wilson and George Pickens are featured below. However, Calvin Austin is an intriguing punt. In Pittsburgh's previous three games, Austin was fourth on the team in route participation (62.9%) but second in air-yard share (17.3%), second in target share (15.1%), tied for second in first-read percentage (15.5%), first in designed-play percentage (23.1%), tied for third in receptions (six), second in receiving yards per game (36.7) and had 0.40 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per route run.
Austin would benefit immensely from a surge in passing rate against Baltimore's pass-funnel defense. Van Jefferson is at a greater risk of losing snaps to Mike Williams since Big Mike is an upgrade as a big-bodied perimeter wideout on Jefferson. Austin's matchup is tantalizing. Per Pro Football Reference, the Ravens have coughed up the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-caliber season after winning the award last year in an excellent campaign, albeit not a standard MVP-caliber year. He's averaged a career-high 266.9 passing yards per game with a career-high 69.1% completion percentage, an NFL-high 24 passing touchdowns, 54.9 rushing yards per game and two rushing touchdowns this season. Jackson's ceiling is undeniable, making him a tantalizing GPP pick.
However, he's not a bulletproof pick. The Steelers have befuddled Jackson in his career. In four career starts against Pittsburgh, he had 858 passing yards (214.5 per game), four passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 58.8% completion percentage, 235 rushing yards (58.8 per game) and zero rushing touchdowns. Still, Derrick Henry is a force multiplier for Baltimore's offense, and Jackson has the best group of pass-catchers in his career. So, he can buck the trend of struggling against the Steelers, and the betting info supports that notion.
Zay Flowers is justifiably Baltimore's highest-salary pass-catching option. This year, he leads the team in route participation (86.2%), target share (24.9%), air-yard share (29.2%), receptions (50 at 5.0 per game), receiving yards (688 at 68.8 per game), first-read percentage (29.8%) and expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (14.4). He's also scored three touchdowns.
Rashod Bateman isn't a slouch, though. He has a 78.7% route participation rate, 27.4% air-yard share, 15.6% target share, 31 receptions (3.1 per game), 501 receiving yards (50.1 per game), 1.91 yards per route run, 15.4% first-read percentage, four end zone targets, four touchdowns and 8.2 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Bateman has a boom-or-bust profile. Yet, his stellar route participation and vertical usage are ideal for big plays, and he can help DFS teams if this game shoots out.
Mark Andrews is on a heater after a slow start to the season. He's scored a touchdown in four of his previous five games, reached at least 40 receiving yards in four of his past six and caught at least three passes in five of his last six. In Baltimore's last four games, Andrews has had a 16.1% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 15.7% first-read percentage, 17 receptions (4.25 per game), 171 receiving yards (42.8 per game), 2.09 yards per route run, two end zone targets and four receiving touchdowns. Isaiah Likely might return from a one-game absence, enhancing the risk of using Andrews. Still, Andrews is in excellent form and one of the cheaper pieces from this contest.
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken could help his quarterback in a matchup he's historically struggled in by leaning on King Henry. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 50 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Henry is first in yards per carry (6.09), fourth in yards before contact per attempt (3.01), fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.08), first in rushing yards per game (112.0), third in explosive run percentage (7.6%) and first in rushing touchdowns (12). Justice Hill is Baltimore's pass-catching back, so a negative game script would hurt Henry's outlook. Nonetheless, the Ravens are favored, and Henry's elite rushing ability gives him slate-breaking upside weekly.
Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks
Spread/Total: SF -6.5/49.5 Points
This is a rematch of a Week 6 Thursday Night Football game in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 36-24. Brock Purdy efficiently completed 18 of 28 pass attempts for 255 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions and ran four times for 19 yards. He's coming off a season-high 353 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 17 rushing yards against the Buccaneers in Week 10. The 49ers have the second-highest implied total on the slate. So, Purdy's case for DFS usage is straightforward.
Deebo Samuel is a dynamic stacking partner. He ran four times for 15 yards and secured three receptions on five targets for 102 yards and a touchdown in the prior meeting against the Seahawks. Samuel's matchup is favorable. Seattle is tied for the eighth-most DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers, and they've ceded the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to them.
George Kittle has a similarly soft matchup against the Seahawks. This year, they've allowed the 12th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Kittle had five receptions for 58 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle in Week 6. His outburst against the Seahawks was only one of his fantasy-friendly showings in an outstanding campaign. In eight games this season, Kittle has 43 receptions (5.4 per game), 560 receiving yards (70.0 per game) and seven touchdowns.
Ricky Pearsall is the cheapest meaningful exposure to the 49ers. In San Francisco's last two games, the rookie wideout has had a 21.0% air-yard share, 9.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 16.1% target share, 0.20 targets per route run, 18.6% first-read percentage, eight receptions (4.0 per game), 111 receiving yards (55.5 per game), one end zone target, one receiving touchdown and 39 rushing yards.
Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings are on the table. However, I'll discuss them in the core studs and values/punts sections, respectively.
The Seahawks will attempt to keep up with the favored hosts. Fortunately, they're coming out of their bye, and DK Metcalf has returned to practice after missing Seattle's final two games before their bye. His presence is huge in Seattle's pass-happy offense.
According to RotoViz's pace app, the Seahawks are tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this season. Geno Smith is the triggerman for Seattle's pass-happy attack and leads the NFL in passing yards per game (284.4). He's tossed 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. So, Smith hasn't been flawless. He's popped up for DFS-friendly games, though.
Metcalf is Seattle's alpha No. 1 wideout. Yet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will attempt to build on a career-best performance before the bye. In Week 9, JSN torched the Rams for seven receptions, 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Tyler Lockett is third in Seattle's pass-catching hierarchy. The veteran wideout isn't the player he was a few years ago. Nevertheless, Lockett has juice. He's averaging 3.8 receptions and 50.7 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns this year. Lockett has surpassed 60 receiving yards in four of his previous six games, scoring a touchdown in two of those efforts, including four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers.
Kenneth Walker has spearheaded Seattle's backfield as their workhorse back. The third-year pro is averaging 14.1 rush attempts, 56.9 rushing yards, 4.3 receptions and 31.0 receiving yards per game with seven touchdowns. Walker is game-script-proof in his every-down role.
Core Studs
- Last week, CMC had only 39 rushing yards in his season debut. However, he handled 13 of the backfield's 15 rush attempts. McCaffrey also played 41 passing snaps and ran 33 routes versus two and two for Isaac Guerendo and one and one for Jordan Mason. CMC had seven targets, six receptions and 68 receiving yards. The do-it-all running back exceeded 100 scrimmage yards in a workhorse role while reprising his bell-cow role. McCaffrey should build on that effort in a superb matchup. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points per game and tied for the ninth-most FanDuel points per game allowed to running backs. The lineup optimizer projects McCaffrey as the RB1 at both DFS providers, with the RB1 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 value score at FanDuel.
- I misspoke earlier this week when giving the Steelers their flowers, incorrectly lumping the blowout victory against the Raiders into Wilson's splits. This is an opportunity for me to provide Pickens's corrected splits in Wilson's starts. In Wilson's three starts, Pickens has had an 84.5% route participation rate, 41.3% air-yard share, 24.4% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 34.5% first-read percentage, 14 receptions (4.7 per game), 276 receiving yards (92.0 per game), 3.37 yards per route run, five end zone targets, two receiving touchdowns and 15.0 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Pickens is an alpha No. 1 wideout in the NFL's softest matchup for wide receivers.
Value Plays/Punts
- The Steelers have scored 37, 26 and 28 points in Wilson's three starts. He hasn't been a high-volume passer, attempting 29, 28 and 28 passes. Still, Wilson has averaged 245.7 passing yards per game with six passing touchdowns versus one interception, turning back the clock to some degree. The veteran signal-caller has even added a rushing touchdown. Wilson should stay hot against the defense that has allowed the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season.
- Cedric Tillman might have been the only player on the Browns sad to see them take a week off for their Week 10 bye. He was on fire after the organization traded Amari Cooper to the Bills. In those three games, he had a 12.7-yard aDOT, 33.8% air-yard share, 22.3% target share, 0.23 targets per route run, a 27.2% first-read percentage, 21 receptions (7.0 per game), 255 receiving yards (85.0 per game), 1.90 yards per route run, four end zone targets, three touchdowns and 19.5 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. DraftKings and FanDuel haven't gotten the memo based on Tillman's bargain salary. The second-year wide receiver has the WR1 value score at DraftKings and the WR8 value score at FanDuel in Week 11.
- Jennings has played in two games without Brandon Aiyuk (Week 10) or Samuel (Week 3). In those two games, Jennings had an 88.6% route participation, 40.7% air-yard share, 34.8% target share, 0.33 targets per route run, a 40.4% first-read percentage, 18 receptions (9.0 per game), 268 receiving yards (134.0 per game), 3.83 yards per route run, two end zone targets, three touchdowns and 20.0 expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Jennings can't be expected to maintain that two-game pace. Still, his underlying data is breathtaking, and he has the WR2 value score at DraftKings and the WR3 value score at FanDuel this week.
- The Titans are home underdogs. However, their defense is talented, and they can vastly outscore their punt salary at both DFS outlets against the spiraling Sam Darnold. He's taken at least three sacks in six of nine starts, including four of his last five. Darnold is also a turnover-machine. He's thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble in the previous two weeks and tallied 10 and three this year.
Week 11 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
George Pickens: 66.5 Receiving Yards - More (Underdog)
Pickens has had 91, 74 and 111 receiving yards in Wilson's three starts. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards per game (199.2) to wide receivers this season. Baltimore has allowed a wideout to surpass 66.5 receiving yards in three straight contests.
Caleb Williams: 203.5 Passing Yards - Less (Sleeper) (1.70x)
Caleb Williams has struggled mightily in his rookie season. In nine games, Williams has averaged only 198.3 passing yards per game, falling short of 203.5 five times. Firing Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator this week and replacing him with Thomas Brown is unlikely to fix Williams immediately.
The rookie quarterback is facing the Packers after their bye. Green Bay has had an extra week to prepare for Williams. The Packers shouldn't have trouble bottling up Williams and holding him under 203.5 passing yards.
Josh Jacobs: 67.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.67x)
Josh Jacobs: 68.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Josh Jacobs's over for rushing yards somewhat correlates with Williams's under for passing yards. If Green Bay's lead running back piles up rushing yards and chews up the clock, Williams won't have as many opportunities to amass passing yards. So, this selection pairs nicely with Williams's under.
Jacobs has averaged 84.7 rushing yards per game, with a median of 76 in nine contests this year. He's gone over 68.5 rushing yards in three straight games and four of his last five. Jacobs has also exceeded 68.5 rushing yards in four of Green Bay's six victories. He should surpass 68.5 rushing yards for the favored Packers against a defense that's allowed 111.6 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
