It was a challenging week to pick my favorite game stacks. Still, one game in the desert and another in Florida were the most appealing selections to stack. Two players in one of the game stacks are featured among this week’s core studs, and an elite running back in a smash spot is the other stud. This week’s values/punts have a quarterback and wideout stack, and an underpriced wide receiver fills the other spot. Finally, a running back playing in Germany, a wideout from one of the suggested game stacks and a running back have the most enticing player props at Sleeper and Underdog this week.
NFL Week 10 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Cardinals vs. Jets
Spread/Total: ARI -1.0/46.0 Points
This game's total doesn't suggest it's an exciting contest to stack. However, the stacking focus is narrow, and it's straightforward. According to RotoViz's pace app, since Week 6, the Cardinals are tied for the third-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%), and the Jets are tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%). Meanwhile, Gang Green has tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (51%) against them since Week 6, and Arizona is tied for the highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) against them in that period.
Thus, James Conner is the most appealing stacking option for the favored hosts. The veteran running back is a productive workhorse. According to Pro Football Reference, Conner has averaged 16.3 rush attempts per game, 73.8 rushing yards per game, 2.1 receptions per game and 18.6 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns this year.
Kyler Murray has the dual-threat ability to provide value beyond his salary, and Trey McBride is the best stacking option with him or an appealing bring-back pivot from Conner. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 6, the Jets have faced the third-highest target rate to players aligned inline (17.0%). McBride's aligned inline 39.3% of the time. He's also shined among his peers at tight end. Out of 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this year, McBride is first in route participation (84.6%), tied for second in air-yard share (23.4%), tied for first in target share (24.3%), tied for fifth in targets per route run (0.26), first in first-read percentage (28.9%), third in receptions (45) and fourth in receiving yards per game (60.1).
Aaron Rodgers has an appealing value salary at both DFS providers, and he'll sling it to his top two wideouts when he takes to the air. Rodgers has tossed multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games and four of his past five. He's also exceeded 230 passing yards in four of his previous five games.
Garrett Wilson is Gang Green's top wideout, but Davante Adams is a heavily involved No. 2. In three games they've played together, Wilson's had a 49.4% air-yard share, 27.3% target share, 0.29 targets per route run, 19 receptions (6.3 per game), 264 receiving yards (88.0 per game), 2.88 yards per route run, two touchdowns, two end zone targets and a 32.4% first-read percentage.
Meanwhile, Adams had a 29.1% air-yard share, 23.2% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 14 receptions (4.7 per game), 175 receiving yards (58.3 per game), 1.94 yards per route run (Y/RR), one touchdown, zero end zone targets and a 29.4% first-read percentage. Rodgers is peppering his best pass-catchers with targets, and while Wilson is the most inviting choice in New York's pass-catching corps, Adams is also an excellent pick, likely at a lower roster percentage than Wilson. And, of course, gamers can double-stack Wilson and Adams with Rodgers and bring it back with Conner or McBride.
Game: Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Spread/Total: SF -5.5/51.0 Points
The 49ers at the Buccaneers have the only game total of at least 50 points on this week's main slate, immediately garnering DFS stacking attention. The cross-country trip for San Francisco isn't concerning since they're coming off their bye. Additionally, their team total (28.5) is the highest on the slate.
Brock Purdy's the triggerman for the slate's highest team total and faces a pass-funnel defense. Tampa Bay has faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 6. Moreover, per Pro Football Reference, they've yielded the second-most DraftKings (24.4) and the most FanDuel (23.6) points per game to quarterbacks this year.
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are Purdy's most appealing stacking partners, but Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are also intriguing. I'll dig into Samuel's receiving outlook more below among the top Sleeper and Underdog player props, and Kittle will be featured among the studs.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Bucs have played zone coverage at the highest rate (82.4%) this season. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jennings has had 16 targets, 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards, 2.50 yards per route run and one receiving touchdown against zone coverage this season. Pearsall has had just three targets, three receptions, 25 receiving yards and 1.04 Y/RR against zone coverage in two games as a pro. However, in his final collegiate season at Florida, Pearsall had 54 targets, 44 receptions, 634 receiving yards, 2.54 Y/RR and three receiving touchdowns versus zone coverage. Thus, I trust his numbers in the pros will improve against zone coverage, making him a nifty bargain piece of exposure to this contest.
Cade Otton is easily the best bring-back option from the Bucs. Yet, like Kittle, Otton is included among the studs. I'll get to him in just a moment.
Sterling Shepard is also a viable option from Tampa Bay's passing attack. Shepard hasn't practiced while nursing a hamstring injury this week, but the Bucs were similarly cautious with him last week. The veteran wideout has had precisely five targets in back-to-back games, parlaying them into four receptions for 48 yards and adding two rush attempts for 21 yards against the Chiefs in Week 9. Shepard had a 34.2% air-yard share, 0.25 targets per route run and a 21.7% first-read percentage last week.
He's more appealing if Jalin McMillan is out again this week, but if the rookie wide receiver is active, Shepard's still useful, and the rookie will be added to the upcoming DFS Cheat Sheet.
Core Studs
- Saquon Barkley is flourishing for the Eagles. Among 47 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Barkley is third in yards per carry (5.89), third in yards before contact per attempt (3.33), 25th in yards after contact per attempt (2.56), sixth in explosive run percentage (7.6%), 22nd in zone success rate (49.5%), eighth in man/gap success rate (59.0%), second in rushing yards per game (115.6) and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns (six). He's also added 2.5 receptions per game, 18.3 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns in eight games this season. Still, Barkley's rushing ability is the draw for using him in a mouthwatering matchup. Per Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are dead last in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush allowed this year. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings (28.0) and the third-most FanDuel (25.3) points per game to running backs this season. Barkley should feast, and the lineup optimizer projects him as the RB1 at DraftKings and FanDuel on Week 10's main slate.
- Among 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this year, Kittle is third in route participation, fifth in air-yard share (21.5%), fourth in target share (22.6%), eighth in targets per route run (0.25), second in first-read target share (26.3%), fifth in receptions (40), first in receiving yards per game (71.9), first in yards per route run (2.66), first in touchdown receptions (six), tied for third in end zone targets (five) and first in expected fantasy points per route run (0.54). He's been the best tight end in football this year and has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Bucs have allowed the third-most DraftKings (16.0) and FanDuel points per game (12.5) to tight ends this year. It's an eruption spot for Kittle.
- It's an outstanding week to use a tight end in the flex, and Otton is underpriced at both DFS providers since the slate opened up before another dominant showing on Monday Night Football in Week 9. In two games without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (Week 8 and Week 9), Otton's had a 75.9% route participation, 23.9% air-yard share, 25.9% target share, 0.32 targets per route run, a 30.4% first-read percentage, 17 receptions (8.5 per game), 158 receiving yards (79.0 per game), 2.39 Y/RR, three touchdowns, four end zone targets and 0.56 expected fantasy points per route run. Otton is a matchup-proof monster as Tampa Bay's No. 1 pass-catching weapon, and his salary should be viewed relative to all pass-catchers, which makes him a screaming value.
Value Plays/Punts
- DFS gamers need to erase the memory of Greg Roman's run-first offenses from their mind. In four games since Los Angeles's Week 5 bye, they've had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%). Conversely, Tennessee was tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) faced since Week 6. Justin Herbert has excelled with the added opportunities. According to PFF, since Week 6, Herbert has completed 65.2% of his 132 pass attempts with a 79.0% adjusted completion percentage, 1,147 passing yards (286.8 per game), 8.7 yards per attempt, five passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, 11 big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays. Herbert is dialed in but is priced like a scrub at both DFS providers.
- Ladd McConkey is LA's No. 1 receiver, and he's also benefited from Roman opening up the passing attack. In the previous four weeks, McConkey's had an 80.5% route participation rate, 27.3% air-yard share, 20.5% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 25.0% first-read percentage, 20 receptions (5.0 per game), 270 receiving yards (67.5 per game), 2.18 Y/RR, two touchdowns, one end zone target and 0.42 expected fantasy points per route run. The Titans are a challenging matchup for wideouts. Nevertheless, McConkey's a No. 1 wide receiver in a pass-happy offense and attached to a stud quarterback, and his salary isn't in alignment.
- DeAndre Hopkins's salary would undoubtedly be higher if Week 10's main slates opened after his Monday Night Football blowup. Nuk torched the Buccaneers for eight receptions, 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The veteran wideout's underlying data was also sterling. Hopkins had a 26.7% air-yard share, 20.5% target share, 0.29 targets per route run, 28.0% first-read percentage, 2.77 Y/RR, two end zone targets and 0.58 expected fantasy points per route run. The Broncos are a difficult matchup for wideouts. Fortunately, Nuk had a 45.2% slot rate last week, and Pat Surtain hasn't often traveled into the slot. So, Andy Reid could move Hopkins around to attempt to get him out of Surtain's shadow coverage. Finally, Hopkins is an optimizer darling, sporting the highest value score among wideouts at DraftKings and tying for the second-highest mark at FanDuel.
Week 10 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Tyrone Tracy: 70.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.72x)
Tyrone Tracy: 72.5 Rushing Yards Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Tyrone Tracy has cemented his spot atop Big Blue's depth chart. Since Week 7, he's handled 42 of New York's backfield's 57 rush attempts, rumbling for 234 yards and 5.6 yards per carry. The rookie has been a bit of a boom-or-bust runner, torching the Seahawks for 129 rushing yards, tallying 50 and 23 in two subsequent games and exploding for 145 in Week 8 before amassing 66 in Week 9.
Thankfully, he has a dreamy matchup in Germany on Sunday morning. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 132.9 rushing yards per game. Tracy should clear his rushing lines at Sleeper and Underdog against Carolina's barely-there run defense.
Deebo Samuel: 61.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
My only concern with Samuel is his CVS-receipt list of injuries and ailments. Still, he's practicing and a menace against zone coverage. Samuel has 2.32 Y/RR against zone coverage this year. Working from 2020 through 2023, he's had 2.41 Y/RR, 3.57 Y/RR, 2.12 Y/RR and 2.83 Y/RR. Even a diminished Samuel should eviscerate Tampa Bay's secondary. Finally, Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (156.7) to wide receivers.
Jonathan Taylor: 17.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.75x)
Jonathan Taylor: 18.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Jonathan Taylor's rushing ability isn't in question. However, his receiving contributions have been minimal. In 59 career games, Taylor has averaged 2.3 receptions and 17.9 receiving yards per game. In six games this season, he's averaged 1.7 receptions and 16.7 receiving yards per game.
Taylor is a capable receiver. He can shine his brightest against the Bills, though. Buffalo has allowed NFL highs for receptions per game (6.78) and receiving yards per game (58.2) to running backs this season. Additionally, the Bills have faced an NFL-high 22.7% target share to running backs this season. Taylor should take advantage of the matchup and exceed 18.5 receiving yards in Week 10.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
